MSU - Nebraska

[Albatross]

Line seems light (7.5 local) but I haven't seen Nebraska play this year. Night game in E Lansing prime time should be rocking. Just thought this would be 10 or higher. By going by paper Sparty should dominate, but I haven't seen Nebraska play so that means a lot.

Big 10 folks......feel free to chime in. Especially Run Lee.

 

[rolltide]

line all over the place. opened at 7.5 then jumped to 10, back to 8, now sitting at 9....

 

[RunLeeRun]

Well, give me your outsider perspective. Im here keg-standing the kool-aid. What are you seeing on paper that Im missing?

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

arbitrage players trying for the +10 -7 middle. Either Neb jumps on Mich St or this game gets ugly.

Mich St has already seen a faster, more talented and more-uptempo version of this offense....a month ago on the road in pretty hot weather.

 

[BernieVegas]

Mich St has already seen a faster, more talented and more-uptempo version of this offense....a month ago on the road in pretty hot weather.

Michigan State hasn't faced a team as physical as Nebraska...For three quarters Michigan State was hanging it on that faster more talented team until they wilted in the fourth quarter(wilted majorly I might add). Nebraska's style is a little more tailor made for Michigan State although RB Abdullah is a beast, but so is QB Cooks of Michigan State...Should be a fun game to watch

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[tmader7]

Alb, watched the cornshuckers twice this year, last being against Ill last Sat, that's the first time this season I've seen any semblance to a traditional "Nebraska" team. Other than that, they've looked lost, but I think maybe now they've found the compass. That being said, Sparty has the best D in the Big 10, the Oregon game notwithstanding, and the shuckers are on the road which doesn't bod well for them.

~T~

 

[RunLeeRun]

Michigan State hasn't faced a team as physical as Nebraska...For three quarters Michigan State was hanging it on that faster more talented team until they wilted in the fourth quarter(wilted majorly I might add). Nebraska's style is a little more tailor made for Michigan State although RB Abdullah is a beast, but so is QB Cooks of Michigan State...Should be a fun game to watch

Yours in Winners
BernieV

They've gone like 80% run the last two games. It will have to be closer to 60/40 against a more disciplined defense.....

 

[RunLeeRun]

I wrote this in another thread.


I don't think Michigan State is undervalued so much as the history between these two teams suggests that it's a tight matchup. Nebraska has been able to run almost at will in three match-ups against defenses that were considered elite (2011, 2012, 2013 all top five in yds/play). This years MSU defense is giving up 5.09 yards/play and are outside the top 40. Even Wyoming popped off some long plays. Now you have Nebraska, which currently sits ONLY behind Oregon, A&M, Alabama (omitting Non-power 5 teams) for yards/play at 7.6, coming into town. That's a favorable match-up for Nebraska's O. On the other hand, MSU probably has it's best offense ever, but it isn't a pound it out team. They like to sling it around too. But what if I told you Michigan's average per run was better than State's? Nebraska tends to defend the pass a lot better than the run. And I'm interested to see how MSU comes out and attacks, because there are typically lanes to run against Nebraska with a linebacker crew that has been very erratic. The thing you don't want to do, is drop back a pass all night especially if you let them play in nickel/dime defense. Nebraska's front 4 is very good in the pass rush and the secondary is pretty solid. MSU does have a nasty crew of WR's though, which should be a huge test for both sides. Something to look out for on Nebraska's defense, they have allow a team to score a td on it's opening possession 4/5 games before settling down. MSU prop to score first could be worth a shot.

 

[Cantpickem]

Neb can play with just about anyone. They have talent. HOWEVER, they get all wound up and are tight before and during the game. They aren't relaxed. Don't let them get behind because they go to panic mode.
For example, lets say for the sake of this thread that MSU is behind by 3 and have the ball with 2 min to go. Everyone in the stands and watching TV has the confidence that MSU will either kick a FG or get a TD to either tie or win it while if NEB is in the same situation everyone would say "game over" no confidence in NEB. They will go 4 downs and zilch.

 

[StevieRay]

Isn't it about time for Nebraska and their coach to take a dump and suck the rest of the season?

 

[tmader7]

I'm not a Spartan fan by any Lindsay Lohan stretch of imagination, or is that mind, damn, hate getting old, but let's look at things here. There's a whopping 100 ypg differential between O and D for these two, Sparty ahead. Then in TO's Sparty the clear favorite, and also with penalties. If you're pushing the Cornshuckers, where's the beef?

~T~

 

[rowdy]

My 2 cents (admitted Husker homer), since joining the Big 10, NU has played MSU very well. Last year arguably MSU's best team in quite some time NU out yarded MSU 392-361 but the usual TO's killed NU (5 for NO to 0 for MSU) and NU lost by 13. In 2012 at E Lansing NU out yarded MSU 473-361 and won by 4. In 2011 NU out yarded them 270-187 and won by 18.The key as always w/ NU is the turnovers. Hard to bet imo that a team will or won't turn it over but I see a high scoring game either way. With all of the crap over from last year about Pelini's status, this year's team seems to be much more relaxed that previous couple of years. The overs might be the best bet. Not sure why but NU just seems to match up and play well vs. Michigan St. One other item is that NU seems to have found a punt return game thanks to a freshman kick returner and more emphasis on the punt return, punt returns could play a factor.

 

[Huskers4ever]

I'm not a Spartan fan by any Lindsay Lohan stretch of imagination, or is that mind, damn, hate getting old, but let's look at things here. There's a whopping 100 ypg differential between O and D for these two, Sparty ahead. Then in TO's Sparty the clear favorite, and also with penalties. If you're pushing the Cornshuckers, where's the beef?

~T~

Mich St. total D/O - - - 289/515
Neb - - - 331/572

 

[HamGlaze]

If Nebraska is yet to be exposed this season it will come here against Michigan St.

I think is gets ugly here for the Big Red. Here you have a team still flying by the seat of its pants vs a well disciplined team at home under the lights with the jacked up crowd.

 

[RunLeeRun]

I'm not a Spartan fan by any Lindsay Lohan stretch of imagination, or is that mind, damn, hate getting old, but let's look at things here. There's a whopping 100 ypg differential between O and D for these two, Sparty ahead. Then in TO's Sparty the clear favorite, and also with penalties. If you're pushing the Cornshuckers, where's the beef?

~T~

Msu 5 penalties/game, NU 6.4....slight advantage

MSU is +9 in turnover margin. If you get into the numbers, you get a better idea of how.
Jacksonville state 4 games TO margin: -3,-2,-2,0 (bold is vs msu)
Oregon: +2,0,+2,+3
E. Mich: -5,+1,-5,+1 (other -5 was to florida)
Wyo: -3,-2,+2,+2,-3 (other -3 was vs Oregon)
Neb: 0,0,+1,+1,+1

Not to take anything away from MSU, cause they have a history of getting turnovers, but it seems to me that in this small sample they are doing about what is expected given the opponent. While I still think NU is turning the ball over too much, they've improved...I mean theyve been really bad under pelini. It seems unlikely that Nebraska goes the game without a TO, they've done well to stay even or go plus this year. For Nebraska backers thats all you can ask for. You get a 43-3 team in that scenario (nu staying atleast even).

You also get the best 2 players on the field in Abdullah and Gregory. Both are game changers....and top 20 in cfb?? Will it be enough for the outright win? Who knows. But I think it bodes well for a game that comes down to the last possession. It's close, but I have to think there is slightly more value on the points....provided you can still get at least a td+. I think this line closes under a td.

 

[akphidelt]

I think Nebraska wins this game. Very physical and fast. I actually think the Ducks game was bad for MSU. Ducks have a shady offensive line, not great receivers, and a subpar defense (for nc contender types). I actually think this Huskers team is better than Oregon and will make this a very difficult game for MSU and most likely win.

 

[tmader7]

Mich St. total D/O - - - 289/515
Neb - - - 331/572

No shit, do the math.....I know Nebraska doesn't rank as low as North Carolina in education.

~T~

 

[RunLeeRun]

No shit, do the math.....I know Nebraska doesn't rank as low as North Carolina in education.

~T~

Stay classy. Didn't you just start a thread about the "cat-fighting"? Don't let it pull you in.

 

[tmader7]

Stay classy. Didn't you just start a thread about the "cat-fighting"? Don't let it pull you in.

My bad, tolerance has hit an all-time low. Here's what I meant: Sparty O vs. Neb D = -183; Neb O vs Sparty D = -289; so you see where I got the 100 diff. Sparty has a much better D imo is all I was trying to point out. Now, I know a bunch of Huskerdu fans are gonna say, well let's look at schedules.....REALLY? Again, my apologies, got a lot on the table right now, but that's no excuse. GLTU my friend.

~T~

 

[RunLeeRun]

My bad, tolerance has hit an all-time low. Here's what I meant: Sparty O vs. Neb D = -183; Neb O vs Sparty D = -289; so you see where I got the 100 diff. Sparty has a much better D imo is all I was trying to point out. Now, I know a bunch of Huskerdu fans are gonna say, well let's look at schedules.....REALLY? Again, my apologies, got a lot on the table right now, but that's no excuse. GLTU my friend.

~T~

Happens to the best of us. I saw how you got the numbers. Can't say I agree with the significance of them, but hey, we all see the info through our own prisms. Keep up the good fight.