Mr. Henry and Mariotta run wild tomorrow

[bigwang]

Pretty sure Brady and his receivers are used to the cold. Weather is irrelevant here for NE unless winds are blowing crazy.

Whoever it was saying Henry is a top 3 rb needs to stop talking immediately.

 

[Serbone]

It’ll be 26 at kickoff, down to 22 4th quarter, a 7-9 mph wind will make it feel like 17 degrees.

Yes, Brady’s receivers will overcome the laws of sports physics and catch the football with their hands and fingers equal to their ability when it was 70 degrees.

I’d take Henry over a lot of bigger name backs since his power speed combo is at the top. Top 3 to me, Gurley and others are up there, if you want smear an opinion that he’s in the top 3 ok, so maybe he’s just top 5. So what?

Don’t know the props but take the over for Henry RY. NE is a few notches from the very bottom stopping the run (per attempt), it used to be priority #1 for Belicheat’s defense, another reason NE backers should worry about covering the 13.5.

GL!

 

[bigwang]

It’ll be 26 at kickoff, down to 22 4th quarter, a 7-9 mph wind will make it feel like 17 degrees.

Yes, Brady’s receivers will overcome the laws of sports physics and catch the football with their hands and fingers equal to their ability when it was 70 degrees.

I’d take Henry over a lot of bigger name backs since his power speed combo is at the top. Top 3 to me, Gurley and others are up there, if you want smear an opinion that he’s in the top 3 ok, so maybe he’s just top 5. So what?

Don’t know the props but take the over for Henry RY. NE is a few notches from the very bottom stopping the run (per attempt), it used to be priority #1 for Belicheat’s defense, another reason NE backers should worry about covering the 13.5.

GL!

Of course they won’t have as easy a time catching passes compared to spring weather but the cold is nothing new to anyone on Pats.

Henry isn’t even a top 15 back and if Titans plan on him carrying them to a win, they are on some powerful shit.

Good luck on your bets.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Alan Branch will be back, that helps. So could Hogan and Mitchell.
Pats are getting healthy for this game.

Laying 14 sucks in the playoffs. But the pats have extra motivation thanks to ESPN.
Dont think I’ll be betting the game, just watching. But I don’t know how anyone would feel comfortable betting Tennessee in NE in January.

 

[Biz]

The Patriots have played in this weather before. The cold weather won't bother them. They are going to score, Tennessee won't stop them. These gloves they wear make catching the ball a lot easier in cold weather.

Pats will force Mariotta to beat them, which he won't do.

Pats defense much better the 2nd half of the year. Not great, but the yearly numbers are inflated from the first awful month they had.

 

[croaker]

Media have been pumping Titans and Jags all week coming up with all sorts of reasons why the games will be close and competitive.

Main risk to Pats and Pitts is from team Zebra. They may use their influence the avoid the games from effectively being over by half time.

 

[BigJonny]

Two things I like about the titans is they are a run first team, and new england struggles stopping the run (maybe someday the Steelers will figure this out) and Mariota, although not an elite talent, is the type of QB the Pats have trouble with....basically took a paragraph to reiterate what NFL Trends said in the thread title.

Weather is a non issue....both teams are comfortable playing in the cold.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Stat: double digits favorites in divisional playoffs are 8-0 ATS all time.

Your stat is incorrect .......2007 Pats -13.5 vs Jags in divisional round, Pats won 31-20, Jags covered.......

 

[Acebb]

Stat: double digits favorites in divisional playoffs are 8-0 ATS all time.

Actually, they're 17-11

Not sure where you got that from.

 

[Biz]

line <= -10 and week <= 19 and playoffs = 1 SU: 10-1-0 (15.36, 90.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-2-0 (3.82, 81.8%) avg line: -11.5 +6: 10-1-0 (90.9%) -6: 4-7-0 (36.4%) +10: 10-1-0 (90.9%) -10: 2-9-0 (18.2%) O/U: 8-3-0 (5.95, 72.7%) avg total: 47.2 +6: 5-6-0 (45.5%) -6: 9-2-0 (81.8%) +10: 4-7-0 (36.4%) -10: 9-2-0 (81.8%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 30.8 118.9 33.5 312.6 23.1 1.2 9.2 9.3 6.9 8.9 34.3 Opp 23.8 99.3 35.3 225.0 21.2 1.9 3.0 6.1 3.6 6.2 18.9 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 09, 2005 Sunday 18 2004 Colts Broncos home 14-0 21-3 0-14 14-7 49-24 -11.0 56.0 25 14.0 17.0 15.5 1.5 W W O 0 Jan 06, 2008 Sunday 18 2007 Chargers Titans home 0-3 0-3 10-0 7-0 17-6 -10.0 38.5 11 1.0 -15.5 -7.2 -8.2 W W U 0 Jan 12, 2008 Saturday 19 2007 Patriots Jaguars home 7-7 7-7 14-3 3-3 31-20 -12.0 50.0 11 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 W L O 0 Jan 08, 2011 Saturday 18 2010 Saints Seahawks away 10-7 10-17 0-10 16-7 36-41 -10.0 45.5 -5 -15.0 31.5 8.2 23.2 L L O 0 Jan 16, 2011 Sunday 19 2010 Bears Seahawks home 14-0 7-0 7-3 7-21 35-24 -10.0 42.5 11 1.0 16.5 8.8 7.8 W W O 0 Jan 07, 2012 Saturday 18 2011 Saints Lions home 0-7 10-7 14-7 21-7 45-28 -10.5 59.5 17 6.5 13.5 10.0 3.5 W W O 0 Jan 14, 2012 Saturday 19 2011 Patriots Broncos home 14-0 21-7 7-3 3-0 45-10 -13.5 50.5 35 21.5 4.5 13.0 -8.5 W W O 0 Jan 05, 2013 Saturday 18 2012 Packers Vikings home 7-3 10-0 7-0 0-7 24-10 -10.0 44.5 14 4 -10.5 -3.2 -7.2 W W U 0 Jan 10, 2015 view Saturday 19 2014 Seahawks Panthers home 7-0 7-10 0-0 17-7 31-17 -12.5 40.5 14 1.5 7.5 4.5 3.0 W W O 0 Jan 08, 2017 view Sunday 18 2016 Steelers Dolphins home 14-3 6-3 10-0 0-6 30-12 -11.5 47.0 18 6.5 -5.0 0.8 -5.8 W W U 0 Jan 14, 2017 view Saturday 19 2016 Patriots Texans home 14-3 3-10 7-0 10-3 34-16 -16.0 45.0 18 2 5 3.5 1.5 W W O 0 Jan 13, 2018 view Saturday 19 2017 Patriots Titans home -13.5 48.0

 

[Biz]

Some div rd games were week 20+

line <= -10 and playoffs = 1
SU: 13-3-0 (12.81, 81.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-6-0 (1.00, 62.5%) avg line: -11.8 +6: 13-3-0 (81.2%) -6: 5-11-0 (31.2%) +10: 13-3-0 (81.2%) -10: 3-13-0 (18.8%) O/U: 10-6-0 (2.22, 62.5%) avg total: 47.8 +6: 6-10-0 (37.5%) -6: 11-5-0 (68.8%) +10: 4-12-0 (25.0%) -10: 11-4-1 (73.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.9 115.2 34.8 288.4 23.3 1.3 7.6 8.9 6.2 8.8 31.4 Opp 23.7 103.0 35.0 217.1 20.7 2.1 3.1 6.5 2.9 6.2 18.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 20, 2002 Sunday 20 2001 Rams Packers home 7-7 17-3 14-0 7-7 45-17 -11.0 55.0 28 17 7 12.0 -5.0 W W O 0 Jan 27, 2002 Sunday 21 2001 Rams Eagles home 10-3 3-14 9-0 7-7 29-24 -10.5 50.5 5 -5.5 2.5 -1.5 4.0 W L O 0 Feb 03, 2002 Sunday 22 2001 Rams Patriots neutral 3-0 0-14 0-3 14-3 17-20 -14.0 53.0 -3 -17 -16 -16.5 0.5 L L U 0 Jan 09, 2005 Sunday 18 2004 Colts Broncos home 14-0 21-3 0-14 14-7 49-24 -11.0 56.0 25 14.0 17.0 15.5 1.5 W W O 0 Jan 06, 2008 Sunday 18 2007 Chargers Titans home 0-3 0-3 10-0 7-0 17-6 -10.0 38.5 11 1.0 -15.5 -7.2 -8.2 W W U 0 Jan 12, 2008 Saturday 19 2007 Patriots Jaguars home 7-7 7-7 14-3 3-3 31-20 -12.0 50.0 11 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 W L O 0 Jan 20, 2008 Sunday 20 2007 Patriots Chargers home 0-3 14-6 0-3 7-0 21-12 -14.5 46.5 9 -5.5 -13.5 -9.5 -4.0 W L U 0 Feb 03, 2008 Sunday 22 2007 Patriots Giants neutral 0-3 7-0 0-0 7-14 14-17 -12.0 41.0 -3 -15.0 -10.0 -12.5 2.5 L L U 0 Jan 08, 2011 Saturday 18 2010 Saints Seahawks away 10-7 10-17 0-10 16-7 36-41 -10.0 45.5 -5 -15.0 31.5 8.2 23.2 L L O 0 Jan 16, 2011 Sunday 19 2010 Bears Seahawks home 14-0 7-0 7-3 7-21 35-24 -10.0 42.5 11 1.0 16.5 8.8 7.8 W W O 0 Jan 07, 2012 Saturday 18 2011 Saints Lions home 0-7 10-7 14-7 21-7 45-28 -10.5 59.5 17 6.5 13.5 10.0 3.5 W W O 0 Jan 14, 2012 Saturday 19 2011 Patriots Broncos home 14-0 21-7 7-3 3-0 45-10 -13.5 50.5 35 21.5 4.5 13.0 -8.5 W W O 0 Jan 05, 2013 Saturday 18 2012 Packers Vikings home 7-3 10-0 7-0 0-7 24-10 -10.0 44.5 14 4 -10.5 -3.2 -7.2 W W U 0 Jan 10, 2015 view Saturday 19 2014 Seahawks Panthers home 7-0 7-10 0-0 17-7 31-17 -12.5 40.5 14 1.5 7.5 4.5 3.0 W W O 0 Jan 08, 2017 view Sunday 18 2016 Steelers Dolphins home 14-3 6-3 10-0 0-6 30-12 -11.5 47.0 18 6.5 -5.0 0.8 -5.8 W W U 0 Jan 14, 2017 view Saturday 19 2016 Patriots Texans home 14-3 3-10 7-0 10-3 34-16 -16.0 45.0 18 2 5 3.5 1.5 W W O 0 Jan 13, 2018 view Saturday 19 2017 Patriots Titans home -13.5 48.0 Showing 1 to 17 of 17 entries

 

[rolltide]

Two things I like about the titans is they are a run first team, and new england struggles stopping the run (maybe someday the Steelers will figure this out) and Mariota, although not an elite talent, is the type of QB the Pats have trouble with....basically took a paragraph to reiterate what NFL Trends said in the thread title.

Weather is a non issue....both teams are comfortable playing in the cold.

top 10 ... not horrible

[h=1]Defensive Rusher Rating[/h]
Final Statistics for the 2017 Season

Rank	Team	RYds	Att	R TDs	Fum	DRR
1 ∼	Tennessee	1420	399	5	9	72.53
2 ↑ 1	Philadelphia	1267	337	7	12	74.63
3 ↑ 1	Carolina	1409	353	7	11	77.20
4 ↑ 2	Dallas	1664	403	7	11	77.64
5 ↓ 3	Chicago	1730	432	10	14	79.59
6 ↑ 1	Green Bay	1793	465	10	11	81.51
7 ↑ 1	Jacksonville	1860	429	9	12	81.62
8 ↓ 3	Denver	1430	428	9	7	81.75
9 ∼	New England	1836	390	6	6	84.76

 

[JohnnyMags]

Expect some craziness in Foxboro, some gadget plays and a very physical game.

13 is more than average hey you teams got during the season this is playoff team caliber too high!!!

 

[BigJonny]

top 10 ... not horrible

[h=1]Defensive Rusher Rating[/h]
Final Statistics for the 2017 Season

Rank	Team	RYds	Att	R TDs	Fum	DRR
1 ∼	Tennessee	1420	399	5	9	72.53
2 ↑ 1	Philadelphia	1267	337	7	12	74.63
3 ↑ 1	Carolina	1409	353	7	11	77.20
4 ↑ 2	Dallas	1664	403	7	11	77.64
5 ↓ 3	Chicago	1730	432	10	14	79.59
6 ↑ 1	Green Bay	1793	465	10	11	81.51
7 ↑ 1	Jacksonville	1860	429	9	12	81.62
8 ↓ 3	Denver	1430	428	9	7	81.75
9 ∼	New England	1836	390	6	6	84.76

I don't know how DRR is calculated, but at 4.7 yards per rush....I'd take that all day long.

1836/16 games is 114.75 yards per game on an average of 24 carries

Do you have numbers on how effective NE is when their opponent rushes the ball more than 25 times?

 

[MackDonald]

Media have been pumping Titans and Jags all week coming up with all sorts of reasons why the games will be close and competitive.

Main risk to Pats and Pitts is from team Zebra. They may use their influence the avoid the games from effectively being over by half time.

They have to "pump-up" these games......TV ratings. Remember, as far as the networks are concerned, it's all about rating which spells more $$$$$$$$

 

[Biz]

I don't know how DRR is calculated, but at 4.7 yards per rush....I'd take that all day long.

1836/16 games is 114.75 yards per game on an average of 24 carries

Do you have numbers on how effective NE is when their opponent rushes the ball more than 25 times?

These numbers also include the first 4-5 games, they have been better since the opening month.

When facing a team that can throw the ball, they have been average at best.

Against teams that struggle throwing it, and that includes Tennessee, they are much better.

Pats are going to stack the box and make Mariotta beat them.

 

[BigJonny]

These numbers also include the first 4-5 games, they have been better since the opening month.

When facing a team that can throw the ball, they have been average at best.

Against teams that struggle throwing it, and that includes Tennessee, they are much better.

Pats are going to stack the box and make Mariotta beat them.

The 1st 4 games should be included because with the exception of NO (17 rushing attempts), the Chiefs (27 rushes), Texans (32 rushes) and Panthers (29 rushes) ran the ball right at them and won 2 of the 3....the other game NE lost, Miami (30 rushes), ran right at them too....seems to be a path to success against them.

 

[bigwang]

The 1st 4 games should be included because with the exception of NO (17 rushing attempts), the Chiefs (27 rushes), Texans (32 rushes) and Panthers (29 rushes) ran the ball right at them and won 2 of the 3....the other game NE lost, Miami (30 rushes), ran right at them too....seems to be a path to success against them.

1st 4-6 games of season are meaningless when playoffs come around. Most teams are quite different in Jan than they are in Sep except for Cleveland, who stink 12 months of year.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

No Alan Branch for the Patriots to help anchor the D-Line and try to stuff Derrick Henry. https://t.co/BUKU1Foh8X

 

[bigwang]

It’ll be 26 at kickoff, down to 22 4th quarter, a 7-9 mph wind will make it feel like 17 degrees.

Yes, Brady’s receivers will overcome the laws of sports physics and catch the football with their hands and fingers equal to their ability when it was 70 degrees.

I’d take Henry over a lot of bigger name backs since his power speed combo is at the top. Top 3 to me, Gurley and others are up there, if you want smear an opinion that he’s in the top 3 ok, so maybe he’s just top 5. So what?

Don’t know the props but take the over for Henry RY. NE is a few notches from the very bottom stopping the run (per attempt), it used to be priority #1 for Belicheat’s defense, another reason NE backers should worry about covering the 13.5.

GL!

Derek Henry 12 carries for 28 yards w biggest gainer going for 4 yards.