My betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance. I use J.J. Bascus power point rating[is based on his model that factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record]. There is an example of his rating on my previous threads here on RX, that I incorporate with my model for predictions.This should go without saying, but - I'll say it anyway. The system does not take into account injuries, weather conditions, yardage gained, the importance of the game, whether it was a Monday Night game or not, whether the quarterback's grandmother was sick, or anything else besides points scored and points allowed. This is why I choose to wait until at least after the 1st week of the NFL season before making my bet with predictions. I live in Vegas so its easy shopping around for point spreads and money lines in varus sports books in town. While history does not always repeat itself perfectly, it does provide some valuable insight into behaviors and for outcomes of certain events. If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term. I have been diligent in my philosophy this is why I choose to play just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games] I never bet spreads over 10, Never a road team, getting 7 more points, Never home steam giving up 7 more points I work off a spread sheet. Use money lines as an evaluation, with and against the point spreads, Weather,injures, Power ratings, Defense and Offense analyzes, Team coaches comparisons My betting style press one time on 2nd win and will go back to an Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction,with the same assumption of each about its probability to win. Remember,my method is not risking adverser [risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs], and considerable risk is assumed when you choose my method of predictions & Bet. As with any gambling, or investing, there is always risk whether it’s systemic or otherwise.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
