Movies 2/7 Shanghai Knights v. How to Lose a Guy

[SonofaGun]

Current lines:

Shanghai Knights O/U 21 million
How to Lose.. O/U 16.5 million (oly initially opened this at 16 but raised half a mil.)

Lakerfan or anyone, initial thougths on these?

 

[lakerfan]

Not only has OLY not stopped doing movie o/u, they are once again opening lines well before WSEX. Bravo to Olympic.

I haven't even capped this weekend as I didn't expect lines until tomorrow at the earliest. I will say that on first view the lines look pretty solid. No early leans.

 

[SonofaGun]

How to Lose a Guy is now O/U 17million.

 

[Royler]

Just some brief thoughts...

Shanghai Noon was well-received in 2000. Opened to 19 million or so. It seems that Chan buddy comedies usually do very well, whereas his "solo" efforts tank. The sneaks of this from over a week ago did brisk business.

Ditto for "How to Lose a Guy..." Solid sneaks.

I think these lines are pretty accurate. Doesn't look like I'll be betting this time, either. I think we're into guesstimating right to the hundreds of thousands again.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Anyone know where I might be able to find a list of how many screens will be opening for each upcoming movie?

 

[lakerfan]

19M for Shanghai Noon was for the 4 DAY Memorial Day weekend. The three day take was 15.61 which would also be somewhat inflated as it would not decrease on Sunday as much do to having Monday off.

Agree the lines are much more solid than last week. But information is always changing with movies so we can hope.

SOS - Check out the frontpage of boxofficemojo.com

 

[raj]

New to this forum, though have done some movie betting before.

I think shanghai knights would have good prebuilt audience. Note that rush hour was 33m and rush hour 2 was 66m.

Really considering hard taking:
Shanghai Knights Over How2lose.. -4.0m @Oly -115

any comments?

 

[SonofaGun]

you can't really compare rush hour to shanghai knights. Chris Tucker was a major, major aspect of that series' success.

 

not as knowledgable as most regarding movies....but i would tend to think a jackie chan movie without a black co-star may not do very well...i agree that chris tucker may have had more to do with previous success than chan....and i doubt that owen wilson has anyone excited about rushing to the movies.....

 

[lakerfan]

If you forced me to bet right now I would take Shanghai Knights giving 4M over How to Lose. But that is almost meaningless this early in the week when the numbers are this close and both films have a large range which they could do.

WSEX should have at a minimum betting on three movies this week as they should also have Deliver Us From Eva. And Chicago is going wide for the first time so they could put a line on it too, but I doubt it.

 

[AC]

both lines look too high. didn't see the original shanghai...was it any good? did audiences like it? jackie chan is a good international draw, but how did the tuxedo did. just as last weekend proved, I don't think there is enough $$ out there over the weekend for any movie to do over 20. how to lose a guy has a good premise and a good trailer...the key here is Kate Hudson...i'm not sold on her, so i would lean to the under. will want to see screen counts first though.

no sure things here however.

AC

 

[gkl895]

Shanghai Knights now -1.5 over How to Lose...

Thoughts?

 

[lakerfan]

Based on my fundamental ranges for how the films would do, that still looks like the best bet for the weekend. However it seems that How To Lose might do on the high side of what I think it can do, and SK on the low side. So, it is a no bet for me still.

 

[raj]

If Tuxedo can do 15mil why won't shanghai knights with better story, supporting casts and comedy/action theme do 20-25 mil?

I would take -1.5 anyday for action/comedy v/s chick flick.

 

[Ninja]

Anyone have any thoughts on S. Knights +20 mil vs. Daredevil? That plus money looks tempting to me.

 

[raj]

I was thinking of middling the book on the knights/daredevil: Take knights+20. If knights opens good, take daredevil over whatever.

But still knights -1.5 has to be the best bet

 

[lakerfan]

Friday Numbers Surprise

How to Lose: 8.1M
SK: 6.2M
Deliver: 2.3M

A 24M weekend for How to Lose is quite surprising.

 

[raj]

Yep,

A loss for me. Now 1-1 on this board (last week Recruit under 17)

 

[SonofaGun]

Glad I stayed away this week.

 

[AC]

looks like this will be a very high weekend historically. very big surprise with the romantic comedy, but teen girls are the #1 driver in the marketplace right now. guess they like Kate Hudson.

AC