Motivated Bowl Potential Teams

[BranFlakes]

This is my time of year where I start looking for teams who need 1 or 2 realistic wins to get them to that 6 win bowl eligibility level. Northwestern fits that criteria. They stand at 4-6 and need these last two games to reach bowl eligibility. Both are realistic wins and talent wise, they should have the edge in both games. Motivation should be there as well. I see no Notre Dame letdown due to what is at stake for them and the potential to get to a bowl. Plus I like their coach, Fitzgerald, and think he will have them ready

I took Northwestern on the small moneyline.

 

[BranFlakes]

Other 4 or 5 win teams:
Arkansas 4-6 (Bielema needs a bowl game bad). Home versus Ole Miss this Saturday and at Missouri next week. Probably not realistic.
California 5-5. Stanford and BYU at home.
Fresno St. 4-6 @Nevada and Hawaii at home.
Illinois 4-6 Penn St at home and @ Northwestern
Kentucky 5-6 Bye week and @ Louisville
Michigan 5-5 Maryland at home and @ Ohio St
Oklahoma St 5-5 @ Baylor and @ Oklahoma
Oregon St 5-5 @ Washington and Oregon at home
Pittsburg 4-6 Syracuse at home and @ Miami FL
South Carolina 5-5 South Alabama at home and @ Clemson
Stanford 5-5 @California and @UCLA
Temple 5-5 Cincinnati at home and @Tulane
Tennessee 5-5 Missouri at home and @Vandy
Virginia 4-6 Miami FL at home and @Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech 5-5 @Wake Forest and Virginia at home

 

[BranFlakes]

5 win teams who know they better get it done this week because the following week will be much more difficult:
Michigan
Oregon St.
South Carolina
Stanford
Virginia Tech

 

[cashflow50]

I like this thread. Thanks for researching.

 

[bigike]

Great thread, thank you.

 

[dg84]

Arkansas is 5-5. I think they have a pretty good shot to win one of those the way they've been playing since October.

 

[BranFlakes]

Arkansas is 5-5. I think they have a pretty good shot to win one of those the way they've been playing since October.

My bad on their record. You are correct.

 

[rolltide]

very little history to support the assumption that 4-win teams cover these games because they're motivated to make a bowl game

4-6 teams are 21-39 ATS away and 29-33 ATS home in game 11 covering a bit worse as a dog than a fav (both are <.500 ATS)

5-5 teams are a bit better (probably b/c they're a better team) at 77-70 ATS with no real diff ATS % home or away. favs though cover better than dogs (59% vs 51%) with the sweet spot being a fav of -5 or greater. those teams are below:

game number = 11 and wins = 5 and losses = 5 and F and line <= -5 and season > 2006
SU: 46-4-0 (18.12, 92.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 33-16-1 (4.25, 67.3%) avg line: -13.9 +6: 38-12-0 (76.0%) -6: 19-30-1 (38.8%) +10: 41-8-1 (83.7%) -10: 15-35-0 (30.0%) O/U: 20-28-1 (0.46, 41.7%) avg total: 54.1 +6: 13-36-0 (26.5%) -6: 31-18-0 (63.3%) +10: 10-39-0 (20.4%) -10: 39-10-0 (79.6%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.1 212.5 26.8 16.4 230.5 1.2 8.2 11.1 7.8 8.9 36.1 Opp 36.4 143.4 32.0 18.1 192.5 2.0 4.2 5.7 3.3 4.7 18.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 STAN CAL away -5.5 56.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 MICH MARY home -5.0 42.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 MTEN FATL home -7.0 57.5 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 SCAR SALA home -24.5 56.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 VTCH WAKE away -15.0 39.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 WKY UTSA home -9.5 57.5 Nov 21, 2014 Friday 13 2014 SDST AIR home -6.0 49.5

 

[BranFlakes]

I hate when reality doesn't match my theory! Good info Rolltide. Thanks.

 

[Cantpickem]

I'd think that Mich and Va Tech would have the better chance of getting to a bowl.

 

[MIDWEST_MAN]

I like Stanford out of all of those teams. They know what they need to do and I think they put a hurtin' on them.

 

[Acebb]

5-5 teams are a bit better (probably b/c they're a better team) at 77-70 ATS with no real diff ATS % home or away. favs though cover better than dogs (59% vs 51%) with the sweet spot being a fav of -5 or greater.

Those teams tomorrow would be:
Michigan
Middle Tenn State
Virginia Tech
Western Kentucky

Leave out Stanford as they are playing a 5-5 team...

 

[rolltide]

yeah not a bad idea...leave out the 5-win dogs playing the 5-win favs and those favs go up a bit more:

game number = 11 and wins = 5 and losses = 5 and F and line <= -5 and season > 2006 and o:wins != 5
SU: 44-3-0 (18.83, 93.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 32-14-1 (4.72, 69.6%) avg line: -14.1 +6: 37-10-0 (78.7%) -6: 18-28-1 (39.1%) +10: 39-7-1 (84.8%) -10: 14-33-0 (29.8%) O/U: 19-26-1 (0.82, 42.2%) avg total: 53.5 +6: 13-33-0 (28.3%) -6: 30-16-0 (65.2%) +10: 10-36-0 (21.7%) -10: 36-10-0 (78.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.0 212.9 27.0 16.4 228.1 1.2 8.1 11.4 7.9 8.8 36.3 Opp 36.5 142.3 31.3 17.5 185.6 2.0 3.7 5.8 3.3 4.6 17.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 MICH MARY home -5.0 42.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 MTEN FATL home -7.0 57.5 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 SCAR SALA home -24.5 56.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 VTCH WAKE away -15.0 39.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 WKY UTSA home -9.5 57.5 Nov 21, 2014 Friday 13 2014 SDST AIR home -5.5 49.5

....and if that opponent is off a win:

game number = 11 and wins = 5 and losses = 5 and F and line <= -5 and season > 2006 and o:wins != 5 and op:W
SU: 11-1-0 (22.50, 91.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-1-1 (13.08, 90.9%) avg line: -9.4 +6: 11-1-0 (91.7%) -6: 8-4-0 (66.7%) +10: 11-1-0 (91.7%) -10: 8-4-0 (66.7%) O/U: 5-7-0 (3.00, 41.7%) avg total: 53.2 +6: 4-8-0 (33.3%) -6: 8-4-0 (66.7%) +10: 4-8-0 (33.3%) -10: 9-3-0 (75.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 40.8 217.4 26.4 15.5 220.4 1.5 9.0 11.3 9.2 9.8 39.3 Opp 34.9 136.2 31.1 16.4 188.7 2.5 4.8 5.0 4.0 3.1 16.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 SCAR SALA home -24.5 56.0 Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 WKY UTSA home -9.5 57.5 Nov 21, 2014 Friday 13 2014 SDST AIR home -5.5 49.5

 

[BranFlakes]

Week 14 Teams with 5-6 record: They need this last win to become Bowl eligible.
Akron -4.5 @ Kent St.
California -4 vs BYU
Fresno St. -11 vs Hawaii
Kentucky +13.5 @ Louisville
Old Dominion +4 @ Florida Atlantic
UAB -4 @ Southern Mississippi (I gave the four points and played this game early)
Michigan +20 @ Ohio St.
Navy 5-5 record -9.5 @ South Alabama
Tennessee -17 @ Vanderbilt
Ohio -2 @ Miami Oh
Oregon St +20 vs Oregon
Pittsburg (NL) @ Miami Fl
Temple 5-5 record +5.5 vs Cincinnati
Here are two head to head games with both teams setting at 5-6 records:
Illinois @ NW -8.5
Virginia-2 @ Virginia Tech

 

[BranFlakes]

If you look at this thread again Rolltide, could you run this through and see how small favorites (maybe 6 or less) and small dogs fare on Week 14 with 5-6 records and needing this last game. Your info is appreciated.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

branflakes and rolltide, I really appreciate both of your efforts in this thread

rolltide how long did I take you to become good at Sports SQL (name)?. I'm learning it slowly ... ever looked at look-ahead games or let-down spots which people mention incessantly in forums like this?..... also, how do you code in-conference vs. cross-conference in SSQL

 

[rolltide]

branflakes and rolltide, I really appreciate both of your efforts in this thread

rolltide how long did I take you to become good at Sports SQL (name)?. I'm learning it slowly ... ever looked at look-ahead games or let-down spots which people mention incessantly in forums like this?..... also, how do you code in-conference vs. cross-conference in SSQL

good? probably half a year....but learning new stuff almost every day

usable? maybe a month ... at least was able to run basics in a month

tough part with college foots/hoops and nhl is they don't have shortcuts like they do for nfl, mlb, nba

example....if you are doing a total yards query and you want to see how a team fares at home after 500+ total yards game and facing opponent that had 250 or less total yards

nfl = p:TY>=500 and op:TY<=250 and H
ncaaf = p:rushing yards+passing yards>=500 and op:rushing yards+opassing yards<=250 and H

hell of a lot more to type....which means more chances to make a mistake. and when you start adding stuff to that (like adding in total yards for 2 games ago) it starts to get pretty chaotic

 

[rivercitybirdie]

rolltide, i noticed a subtle trick. there are two sql sites at least from what i've seen.... often i use the big matrices to come up with some rules and then cut and paste to the sql command line. i.e. i come up with rules from nba matrix and transfer them to the other site and its ncaaf sql query line.

have you found good stuff in nba? seems like a league just perfect for quant type stuff. so many games and you can put down alot of $$$$$ on it if you have access to the right places (san diego vs. pepperdine you can't make much money off that with the best model in the world)

what i'd really like to test (i'm working towards it) is teams that have missed/covered each of last 2 or 3 games by 10, 15, 20 points in NCAAF? complete hero teams vs. complete dog teams...... ats streaks are good but south alabama is on 5 game ATS losing streak but 4 of the games have been very very tight to the spread.

basically apply stock market/behavioural science type work on earning surprise and very deep value to the betting markets....

thanks again

 

[BigdaddyQH]

My thoughts:

Week 14 Teams with 5-6 record: They need this last win to become Bowl eligible.
Akron -4.5 @ Kent St...If they play. The game was cancelled. No amke-up date so far.
California -4 vs BYU...BYU is going to the Miami Bowl no matter what happens here. Advanage Cal.
Fresno St. -11 vs Hawaii...Hawaii 1-4 S/U on the road.
Kentucky +13.5 @ Louisville...Kentucky may cover, but a win against an 8-3 Cardnial team is unlikely.
Old Dominion +4 @ Florida Atlantic...Tough. Fla Atl is 0-4 S/U, while Old D has won two straight at home.
UAB -4 @...Southern Mississippi (I gave the four points and played this game early) A good play
Michigan +20 @ Ohio St...Michigan has ZERO chance of winning S/U. ATS is another matter.
Navy 5-5 record -9.5 @ South Alabama...Navy should win.
Tennessee -17 @ Vanderbilt...Vandy is 0 fer the SEC.
Ohio -2 @ Miami Oh...Miami O would love nothing more than to burst Ohio's dreams.
Oregon St +20 vs Oregon...No way State wins this game.
Pittsburg (NL) @ Miami Fl...Check the injury reports.
Temple 5-5 record +5.5 vs Cincinnati...Cincy still has a shot at the AAC title.
Here are two head to head games with both teams setting at 5-6 records:
Illinois @ NW -8.5..NW lost their starting QB Siemian.
Virginia-2 @ Virginia Tech...Two HC jobs on the line here?

 

[BranFlakes]

Good comments Bigdaddy. The Kent St vs Buffalo game was the cancelled one. This Akron vs Kent St game goes this week. Moved to Friday at 1:00 pm