The only totals I personally fade occur when the public is betting a total OVER and is driving the number up...............usually a TV game.
As far as the early and late game theory you mentioned, there are many types of different scenarios that take place with this.............most of which is way to complicated for me to discuss on a Sunday morning.
One I will mention is that if all the BIG PUBLIC plays win early, the numbers for the afternoon PUBLIC games will usually be driven up a half point because the PUBLIC has more money to bet on the PUBLIC plays, the oddsmakers are dealing with a ton of exposed parlays going to the afternoon favorites because the PUBLIC won in the morning, and some other intagible factors.