Most Overvalued & Undervalued teams

GoSooners · Jun 4, 2015

Something similar may have already been posted here, but I'm too lazy to look. Don't shoot the messenger, there's some of this that I don't agree with either. As for the Sooners, I'm curious to which of our 3 QB's gives him reason for optimism? And how he expects our completely rebuilt OL to perform?

[h=1]Oddsmakers' win-total projections vs. the Too-Early Top 25[/h]

Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
Which four teams are the favorites to reach the College Football Playoff this coming season?

According to at least one offshore sports book, it might be defending national champion Ohio State, along with Baylor, TCU and Wisconsin.
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Those four teams had the highest win totals among Power 5 teams heading into the 2015 season, according to oddmakers at 5Dimes. Ohio State's victory total was 11, while the other three aforementioned teams' win totals were set at 10.
Now, oddmakers aren't always right, but as the old saying goes, there's a reason Las Vegas has very tall (and posh) buildings. Casinos and sports books seem to be on the right side of wagers a lot more often than they're on the wrong side.
With that being said, there were some noticeable differences between 5Dimes' early victory totals and the latest edition of the 2015 Way-Too-Early Top 25. Keep in mind that 24 of the 25 teams in the final Associated Press Top 25 poll of 2014 had at least nine victories (No. 22 Auburn was the lone exception with eight) and each of the top 16 teams had at least 10.
Here's a look at which teams might have been overvalued or undervalued in the Way-Too-Early Top 25:
[h=2]Undervalued[/h]

UCLA Bruins
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 11
5Dimes victory total: 9½
Comment: The Bruins opened the 2014 season ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP poll, and then finished No. 10 after losing back-to-back games to Utah and Oregon in October and falling badly to Stanford in their regular-season finale. UCLA had one of the country's youngest rosters a year ago, and it will have to replace star quarterback Brett Hundley this coming season. The Bruins won't have to play the Ducks in the regular season, but they'll play challenging Pac-12 road games at Arizona, Stanford, Utah and rival USC.

Florida State Seminoles
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 15
5Dimes victory total: 9½
Comment: The latest Way-Too-Early Top 25 was compiled several weeks before the Seminoles added former Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson as a graduate transfer. He's now the favorite to replace departed starter Jameis Winston, the No. 1 pick in last month's NFL draft. FSU has to replace a boatload of other talented players, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. Still, FSU would probably be favored in every game but two road contests if the season started today: at Georgia Tech on Oct. 24 and at Clemson on Nov. 7.

Wisconsin Badgers
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 17
5Dimes victory total: 10
Comment: Talk about high expectations for new Badgers coach Paul Chryst. Wisconsin is coming off an 11-3 season but has to replace record-setting tailback Melvin Gordon, who ran for 2,587 yards with 29 touchdowns in 2014. The Badgers open the season against Alabama in Arlington, Texas, which won't be easy, but they don't have to play Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State or Penn State during the Big Ten regular season.

Stanford Cardinal
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 23
5Dimes victory total: 9
Comment: Stanford coach David Shaw (and predecessor Jim Harbaugh) has built a program that's too good to slip very far. The Cardinal limped through an 8-5 record in 2014, but played its best football at the end, trouncing then-No. 8 UCLA 31-10 in the regular-season finale and Maryland 45-21 in the Foster Farms Bowl. The Cardinal plays at USC on Sept. 19, but then plays UCLA, Oregon and Notre Dame at home.

Oklahoma Sooners
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: Unranked
5Dimes victory total: 9
Comment: Maybe the preseason hype surrounding Oklahoma came a year too soon. The Sooners were ranked No. 4 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll in 2014, but then struggled through an 8-5 campaign. Quarterback Trevor Knight and tailback Samaje Perine are back, along with highly touted tailback Joe Mixon, who was suspended for the 2014 season. OU plays a nonconference road game at Tennessee on Sept. 12, as well as potentially challenging Big 12 road contests at Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State.

[h=2]Overvalued[/h]

Auburn Tigers
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 4
5Dimes victory total: 8½
Comment: There's no question we took a flyer on the Tigers, who lost four of their last five games en route to finishing 8-5 in 2014. Quarterback Jeremy Johnson might be great in his first season as a starter, and coach Gus Malzahn has assembled plenty of playmakers around him. If Auburn is going to live up its preseason hype, though, new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp might have to work miracles on that side of the ball.

USC Trojans
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 5
5Dimes victory total: 8½
Comment: After winning nine games in coach Steve Sarkisian's first season, the Trojans are a chic pick to challenge for a Pac-12 championship in Year 2 of his tenure. Is it too much hype too soon? The Trojans bring back quarterback Cody Kessler, along with JuJu Smith and Adoree' Jackson. But there are at least five toss-up games on USC's schedule: Stanford (home), Arizona State (road), Notre Dame (road), Oregon (road) and UCLA (home).

Arizona Wildcats
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 13
5Dimes victory total: 7
Comment: The Wildcats finally broke through under coach Rich Rodriguez last season, winning 10 games for the first time since 1998. With quarterback Anu Solomon and tailback Nick Wilson coming back, the Wildcats are capable of doing it again. But Arizona's schedule, which includes road games at Stanford, USC and Arizona State, might be an uphill climb.

LSU Tigers
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 8
5Dimes victory total: 8
Comment: Stop us if you've heard this before: The Tigers will be among the SEC West contenders if they get better quarterback play. LSU was among the country's youngest teams in 2014, and tailback Leonard Fournette certainly looks as good as advertised. But unless junior Anthony Jennings or sophomore Brandon Harris improves dramatically under center, the Tigers might remain in the middle of the pack in the SEC West. LSU faces three difficult SEC road games: at Mississippi State, at Alabama and at Ole Miss.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Way-Too-Early Top 25 ranking: 18
5Dimes victory total: 7½
Comment: So oddsmakers aren't buying what Georgia Tech was able to accomplish last season? The Yellow Jackets went 11-3, upsetting No. 19 Clemson, No. 9 Georgia and No. 7 Mississippi State -- and nearly knocking off No. 4 FSU in the ACC championship game -- in their final four games. Quarterback Justin Thomas looks like a tailor-made fit for coach Paul Johnson's triple-option spread offense, but nearly everyone else who touched the ball is gone. Tech's schedule won't be easy with road games at Notre Dame and Clemson and home games against Florida State, Virginia Tech and Georgia.

Bishop987 · Jun 4, 2015

Your Post is having a good information about the teams..

cloverleaf · Jun 7, 2015

Other than the quarterback, Georgia Tech has ZERO proven playmaker starters returning. All the running backs and receivers will be new.

I'm thinking the Yellow Jackets are in for a difficult season...they certainly won't sneak up on anyone like they did last year.

BigdaddyQH · Jun 7, 2015

This article was posted before. It is typical ESPN garbage. I am sure that the posters in here would do a much better job than this clown.

GoSooners · Jun 7, 2015

cloverleaf said:
Other than the quarterback, Georgia Tech has ZERO proven playmaker starters returning. All the running backs and receivers will be new.

I'm thinking the Yellow Jackets are in for a difficult season...they certainly won't sneak up on anyone like they did last year.

I agree about GT. Overvalued...

outhousetim · Jul 3, 2015

Poor article. Not sure writer understands the meaning of overvalued and undervalued. Still, thanks for sharing, as sharing something like this adds value in that we see what others are thinking.

BigdaddyQH · Jul 3, 2015

One tip about over and under rated teams is what Vegas does with the GOY odds regarding each team. Let's look at Cal, who will more than likely end up a very over-rated team. First, Colorado has more GOY's than Cal does. Cal has just one GOY, that being -13 at Stanford. No team in the Pac 12 has less GOY's than Cal. There is nothing you can tell from GOY's regarding Cal.

Next, the team itself has not changed much. They still have a solid QB and a terrible defense. Sonny Dykes has a career record of 28-33. His teams have always been poor to flat out terrible on defense. Dykes does not know what the word defense means. Most people see Cal as a 6-6 type team.

Now here is how Vegas can sucker Joe Pub. Cal opens at home against Grambling State, and San Diego State. Grambling has a good offense, so Cal's defense will get a bit of a legitimate test. San Diego State comes calling next. They can grind it out and have a pretty good defense. Check the line on this game. San Diego State has a habit of covering against Pac 12 teams (3-1 in the last 4 seasons). After these two very winnable home games, Cal goes to Texas. Everyone knows about Cal's record when it comes to covering away spreads. Everyone includes the linesmakers in Vegas. On top of all of that, Texas will more than likely have one loss, as they open at Notre Dame. So you have 2-0 Pac 12 Cal, at 1-1 Big 12-2 Texas. Oh yea. The same Texas that is coached by Charlie "My Way or the Highway" Strong. A loss to Cal would be a major disaster to Strong's long range plans at Texas. Vegas could set the line as low as Texas -2 or 3, when it should be set at -7.

The same can hold true the next week when Cal goes to Washington. UDub certainly will have one loss, and maybe two. Again, the linesmakers knowing that Joe Pub will jump on Cal, will set the line in favor of UDub by 3-5 points. This is how the sharps and wise guys make their money and Joe Pub loses.

GoSooners · Jul 3, 2015

I think Cal hits 6-6 this year. Maybe not much more than that considering their defense. But consider some of the other teams in their division. UW, WSU, OSU. Are those teams any better off? At least Cal has a QB who is an NFL prospect. That's half the battle these days.

BigdaddyQH · Jul 3, 2015

GoSooners said:
I think Cal hits 6-6 this year. Maybe not much more than that considering their defense. But consider some of the other teams in their division. UW, WSU, OSU. Are those teams any better off? At least Cal has a QB who is an NFL prospect. That's half the battle these days.

I totally agree. Oregon State and Washington State are the two worst teams in the Pac 12 North. At least UDub has a HC who has a good history when it comes to recruiting kids. I expect to see UDub in the Top 3 in the Pac 12 North in the near future (1-2 years from now). Probably #2, unless Oregon feels the loss of the dollars now that Nike is getting a new CEO. Cal and Stanford will always be the same. I see Cal moving up slightly and Stanford dropping slightly, but we are talking one to two games a season.

GoSooners · Jul 3, 2015

BigdaddyQH said:
I totally agree. Oregon State and Washington State are the two worst teams in the Pac 12 North. At least UDub has a HC who has a good history when it comes to recruiting kids. I expect to see UDub in the Top 3 in the Pac 12 North in the near future (1-2 years from now). Probably #2, unless Oregon feels the loss of the dollars now that Nike is getting a new CEO. Cal and Stanford will always be the same. I see Cal moving up slightly and Stanford dropping slightly, but we are talking one to two games a season.

Cal is one of those teams that I could be easily wrong about. One awkward step by that QB and he's out of commission and their season could go into the dumper pretty quick. So everything with these kinds of teams is dependent on them staying healthy. Personally I prefer the undervalued teams who play good defense. At least with these kinds of teams they can sometimes still win ugly if things go south on offense.

Wanger · Jul 3, 2015

BigdaddyQH said:
Probably #2, unless Oregon feels the loss of the dollars now that Nike is getting a new CEO.

Where do you come up with this garbage? Nike gives Oregon just under 3 million a year in equipment and cash and in return it gets the most recognized brand in college football.

Wanger · Jul 3, 2015

Wanger said:
Where do you come up with this garbage? Nike gives Oregon just under 3 million a year in equipment and cash and in return it gets the most recognized brand in college football.

Should be a little over 3 million not under.

REDEYE · Jul 3, 2015

BigdaddyQH said:
I totally agree. Oregon State and Washington State are the two worst teams in the Pac 12 North. At least UDub has a HC who has a good history when it comes to recruiting kids. I expect to see UDub in the Top 3 in the Pac 12 North in the near future (1-2 years from now). Probably #2, unless Oregon feels the loss of the dollars now that Nike is getting a new CEO. Cal and Stanford will always be the same. I see Cal moving up slightly and Stanford dropping slightly, but we are talking one to two games a season.

only in your dreams.... Knight didn't go broke all of a sudden or disown his University...nothing changes including the standings

BigdaddyQH · Jul 4, 2015

Wanger said:
Where do you come up with this garbage? Nike gives Oregon just under 3 million a year in equipment and cash and in return it gets the most recognized brand in college football.

Keep dreaming. Oregon is still a little school in a pot filled little state to the vast majority of college football fans. Oregon the most recognized brand in college football? That is almost as absurd as thinking that Oregon will win a NC one day. They are not even the most recognized brand of football in the Pac 12. You newby's really should try and learn something before you post.

BigdaddyQH · Jul 4, 2015

RED EYE said:
only in your dreams.... Knight didn't go broke all of a sudden or disown his University...nothing changes including the standings

Red Eye, you are a phony and I am sick and tired of your caca. Let me demonstrate just how big of a coward you are. All you have done for the past three seasons is shoot your mouth off about how great Oregon is and how they are the best around. So then what happens? Oregon destroys Florida State and makes it to the big game against Ohio State, the upset winner over Alabama. Now you have a major problem on your hands. If Oregon loses, you will look like the fool that you are. So you take the chicken s**t way out by wagering on Ohio State. That way you can either claim to win money (if you really wagered at all), or claim that you were right and Oregon is as great as you said it was. That is Bull S"**t. That is what the cowards do when they find themselves backed into a corner. Are you going to honestly tell me that for some totally unknown reason, you decided that a team with their 3rd string QB starting the game was better than mighty Oregon, the team that you had been boasting about all season long? Sorry Charlie. Once again you have been caught in another one of your attempts to save face in here. Just like your boast about taking USC +5 over Oregon at 5Dimes and then finding out that the real line posted by a real book is 6 1/2. Once again your thinking is the cowards way of thinking. Instead of defending your team, you wager on their opponents, so you can claim that you had a winning wager if your team loses. Only cowards do that. Real fans simply will pass on games involving their favorite teams if they think there is a chance that there team may not cover. Why not ask Clover how many times he has wagered against Alabama over the years? The game is over for you boy. You have been exposed again and again. This is getting to be both boring and pathetic. Grow up little girl.

REDEYE · Jul 4, 2015

amazing how many times I have mentioned to you when I was in Vegas and challenged you to come and meet me and say these things to my face.. What happens ? nothing of course speaking of cowards...

so let me get this straight and we are on a gambling forum, it makes more sense to pass on a game because its your team then bet against your team getting a TD where actually two good things could happen ? OK.... and not to mention it was a bad line considering we had all our skill players out and line was inflated because we dismantled Fla St.... not sure what the problem is, I posted it before the game not afterward..

Why do you keep bringing up the USC+5 play ? so what I didn't get the best line ....it happens....We saw your " Junk GOY " thread last year over and over.. its not exactly your specialty for you to be commenting what anyone here bets in advance ...

MoneyMiller · Jul 4, 2015

In my opinion Utah isn't getting enough credit. Their going to be stellar

At least down here, Tx Am is getting too much hype for a team that has a lot of holes on defense. 7-8 wins max

No one is close to touching my Buckeyes, u can pencil them into playoff no doubt.
Urban Meyer in the B10 is almost not fair. Ann Arbor is a whore, Go Bucks!
O-H...

Insiders · Jul 4, 2015

GoSooners said:
Cal is one of those teams that I could be easily wrong about. One awkward step by that QB and he's out of commission and their season could go into the dumper pretty quick. So everything with these kinds of teams is dependent on them staying healthy. Personally I prefer the undervalued teams who play good defense. At least with these kinds of teams they can sometimes still win ugly if things go south on offense.

I very seldom stop by here but when i saw your thread i deceided to stop by and mention that you should leave all the Pac12 stuff to Pez.....lol The Running dogs will hapefully bark loudly about bowl season. You guys were White HOT with those running doggies. Have a Great upcomeing season, cya across the street bout bowl season.

GoSooners · Jul 4, 2015

MoneyMiller said:
In my opinion Utah isn't getting enough credit. Their going to be stellar

At least down here, Tx Am is getting too much hype for a team that has a lot of holes on defense. 7-8 wins max

No one is close to touching my Buckeyes, u can pencil them into playoff no doubt.
Urban Meyer in the B10 is almost not fair. Ann Arbor is a whore, Go Bucks!
O-H...

I don't think tOSU will have it quite as easy as you think.

Wanger · Jul 4, 2015

BigdaddyQH said:
Keep dreaming. Oregon is still a little school in a pot filled little state to the vast majority of college football fans. Oregon the most recognized brand in college football? That is almost as absurd as thinking that Oregon will win a NC one day. They are not even the most recognized brand of football in the Pac 12. You newby's really should try and learn something before you post.

Do you even know what brand recognition is?

You're the one who said Nike would probably be dropping the money they spend at Oregon but idiots like yourself don't understand the ROI that Nike gets from the money they spend at Oregon. When people think of Oregon uniforms the first thing they think of is Nike, that's what you call brand recognition moron.