[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MOST OVERRATED AND UNDERRATED TEAMS SO FAR IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Winning handicappers are always looking for value. One of the best ways to do that is to monitor team profit/loss marks. In football and basketball, that means you look at pointspread performances. Teams that keep covering spreads have been underrated by the betting market. Teams that fail to cover have been overrated. In baseball, it's a bit trickier because of the moneylines. But, you can still figure out which teams are overrated and underrated by looking at the unit-performance from backing them in every game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are definitely some teams that have been outperforming or underperforming expectations this year. Now that everyone's played more than 20 games (with many surpassing 25 games by the end of this weekend), it's a great time to check in on those teams and see if we can develop strategies for handling them in future games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MOST OVERRATED (thru Thursday Night's games)
San Diego: -7 units
Texas: -7 units
Detroit: -7 units
LA Dodgers: -6 units
Washington: -6 units
Cleveland: -6 units
Toronto: -6 units
Cincinnati: -5 units[/FONT]
Arizona: +9 units
Oakland: +7 units
Florida: +7 units
Boston: +6 units
Chicago Cubs: +6 units
Baltimore: +6 units
Milwaukee: +6 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Some teams look overrated by this standard, but they're actually red hot RIGHT NOW! The poor play that reflected that overrated status occurred in the first few weeks of the season. Others look underrated, but might have been playing over their heads in the first 20 games of the campaign (Florida and Baltimore jump out). [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's very important for you value handicappers to have a read on what's happening as we speak. Baseball is a sport of ebb and flow. Things really can change on a dime. The Tigers weren't hitting. Now they are. The Yankees have been slow to start. I expect their offense to pick up the pace very soon too. New York is almost NEVER a value team to bet on. They're typically popular for Nevada sharps to go against. I sense that those guys are about to lose the enthusiasm for that approach except when the back end of the rotation is starting. [/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MOST OVERRATED AND UNDERRATED TEAMS SO FAR IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Winning handicappers are always looking for value. One of the best ways to do that is to monitor team profit/loss marks. In football and basketball, that means you look at pointspread performances. Teams that keep covering spreads have been underrated by the betting market. Teams that fail to cover have been overrated. In baseball, it's a bit trickier because of the moneylines. But, you can still figure out which teams are overrated and underrated by looking at the unit-performance from backing them in every game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are definitely some teams that have been outperforming or underperforming expectations this year. Now that everyone's played more than 20 games (with many surpassing 25 games by the end of this weekend), it's a great time to check in on those teams and see if we can develop strategies for handling them in future games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MOST OVERRATED (thru Thursday Night's games)
San Diego: -7 units
Texas: -7 units
Detroit: -7 units
LA Dodgers: -6 units
Washington: -6 units
Cleveland: -6 units
Toronto: -6 units
Cincinnati: -5 units[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Diego has surprised a lot of people with their poor play. This is a team that just missed the playoffs last year (losing in a one-game "overtime" to Colorado for the Wildcard spot). This year, the offense has been anemic. They couldn't get any runs against the Giants on Wednesday and Thursday nights. They also played that 22 inning game with Colorado that lacked offense. Certainly a big surprise.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Texas entered their weekend series with Minnesota on a seven-game losing streak. They went from break even to minus seven on one road trip![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Detroit's won four games in a row, which means they were at -11 units earlier in the week! That's definitely a team that's turned things around. They were overrated to start the season. I'd wait until they cooled off before I considered going against them again. The offense is scoring at will. The starting pitching is due to get better soon too. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Dodgers join the Padres on the list of West Coast National League teams who were supposed to be better than this. It was the San Francisco Giants who were supposed to be helpless. Los Angeles isn't getting the pitching they were hoping for.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cleveland is like Detroit, in that they've gotten hot lately to turn around what had been a disaster. Cleveland just swept Kansas City on the road, lifting themselves up from minus nine units to minus six. As with Detroit, I wouldn't go against them now even though they grade out as overrated by their performance in the first 20 games. Things are starting to click. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Toronto enters every season knowing they can't afford a slow start. It may already be too late for them to catch Boston from behind.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cincinnati has already fired its general manager! You know they had higher expectations than this entering the season. I've said often that pointspread or profit/loss performances are great indicators for future firings. Head coaches, managers, or management personnel can see their abilities reflected very accurately in a team's Las Vegas record.
[/FONT]
Arizona: +9 units
Oakland: +7 units
Florida: +7 units
Boston: +6 units
Chicago Cubs: +6 units
Baltimore: +6 units
Milwaukee: +6 units[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Arizona has been great all year. They started the season well, and kept on winning. The lines have finally been getting higher. It will be difficult for them to show a big profit at home now because oddsmakers are finally pricing them like a league champion rather than some .500 team with no talent. They were a great team to ride while it lasted. Now, you'll have to pick your spots with opponents and prices.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oakland was supposed to be in trouble this year. Some people just never learn that Billy Beane knows how to win on a shoestring budget. His players are overmatched by top notch pitchers. Against everyone else, they're a good bet to get the money.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Florida has the feel of a fluke team to me. They're starting pitching is very suspect. The offense has benefited from warm weather. I'd be surprised if they maintain this pace for very long. But, I do congratulate those who saw the hot start and took advantage. The public thought these guys would be worse than Washington this year. Entering this weekend, they sitting on top of the NL East. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boston had been red hot before the flu hit their pitching staff. They dropped a couple of games to the Angels because of late scratches. Like Arizona, this is a team that's likely to win for awhile, but at very expensive prices. You'll have to be careful finding value. When Boston gets hot, oddsmakers price them like a 105 or 110 victory team. They're probably not that good. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chicago was picked by many to win the NL Central...has been playing very well in the NL Central...yet is still making money. The oddsmakers don't have much respect for the starting rotation...which means the Cubs are surprisingly affordable whenever Carlos Zambrano isn't pitching. If that holds true, the Cubs could be a value team for months. We've seen this in past years with teams like this. They grind out victories because the rotation lacks overpowering names while grinding out quality starts. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Baltimore has been a fun team to root for. Some were calling them the new Tampa Bay before the season started. The youngsters on the roster sure didn't like that, and have been playing with fire all season. They've had kind of a friendly schedule so far though. I do expect this team to cool down. As little respect as they get, they could still be a value team after that happens though. The market is going to think of them as a 70-92 type team (or worse). When they play with enthusiasm, they're better than that. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Milwaukee could be in a battle with the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central this year. That could keep all three teams playing very good ball when not matched up against each other. If the market doesn't adjust to the intensity of the pennant race, really all three of those contenders could offer value for a long while to come.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Some teams look overrated by this standard, but they're actually red hot RIGHT NOW! The poor play that reflected that overrated status occurred in the first few weeks of the season. Others look underrated, but might have been playing over their heads in the first 20 games of the campaign (Florida and Baltimore jump out). [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's very important for you value handicappers to have a read on what's happening as we speak. Baseball is a sport of ebb and flow. Things really can change on a dime. The Tigers weren't hitting. Now they are. The Yankees have been slow to start. I expect their offense to pick up the pace very soon too. New York is almost NEVER a value team to bet on. They're typically popular for Nevada sharps to go against. I sense that those guys are about to lose the enthusiasm for that approach except when the back end of the rotation is starting. [/FONT]
