Hey gentlemen. Hope you all had a nice few days off. I had a chance to recharge for the 2nd half. Hope we all make money like the 1st half. I know there are no lines out yet, but I'm starting to look at Friday's card. In my attempt to cut down on my plays, I will be changing things up a bit. I will first post all of the plays I am considering, and then cut them down during they day, and when time permits, give my reasons for my plays. I welcome all criticism. And lastly, I consolidated my 1st half record to just one line. For the 2nd half, I will again break down the record into categories, but will just keep one total record instead of breaking it down monthly.
So far for July 15th, I am looking at the following plays.
Giants -1.5
I rarely play run lines, but hate big juice more. Current Padre players who have faced Bum are a combined .169 batting average vs the lefty. Padres have hit lefties extremely well this year, 6.55 rpg which is a bit concerning and may kill this play. On the other hand, current Giant players who have face Cashner are a combined .320 vs the righty. There's a huge difference in era's between these 2 pitchers, especially the past 3 games.
Giants TT over
I'm hoping to get at worst 4.5 for this number, but may play it up to 5. As stated above, Giant hitters are rocking Cashner. On top of that, his season era at 5.40 and last 3 at 9.00 raises my eyebrows.
Cubs to win
Both the Cubs and Rangers limped into the all star break. Once the Rangers' pitching staff gets healthy, they are going to be a force to be reckoned with again. But they aren't there right now. Hendricks has been rock solid, especially at home. 5-1 1.67. Meanwhile, Perez is not impressive, especially on the road. 1-4 5.23. I just hope the juice is less than -170 on this one.
Cubs TT over
May play this one up to 5. I'm trying to stay away from 5.5 or more on TTs. Cubs are averaging 5.69 rpg vs lefties, and they're facing a struggling road lefty. One thing that concerns me is that the Cubs are only hitting .242 at Wrigley this year. I'd rather play the Cubs to win, but we'll see.
Red to win
What? Well, DeSclafani is a stud on the mound so far. 3-0 with a 2.23 era and 1.29 whip. Brewers hit .244 vs righties with 3.92 rpg. Meanwhile, Garza is sporting a 5.54 era, 8.44 last 3 games. On the road he is 0-2 5.40 era. Jay Bruce is hitting .375 with 3 home runs in 32 at bats vs Garza, and Votto at .286 in 28 at bats. Phillips .345 in 29 at bats. And Suarez .800 in 5 at bats. He can't pitch around all these guys. I'm hoping to get a better number than -150.
Reds TT over
For reasons stated above, the Reds have hit Garza pretty darn well. Plus the extra motivation to give good run support for a pitcher who keeps them in games. I may be willing to go up to 5, but would rather see 4.5 or better.
That's all I have for now. Still waiting on starting pitchers to be announced.
2016 1st Half: 268-220 +40.44 units
So far for July 15th, I am looking at the following plays.
Giants -1.5
I rarely play run lines, but hate big juice more. Current Padre players who have faced Bum are a combined .169 batting average vs the lefty. Padres have hit lefties extremely well this year, 6.55 rpg which is a bit concerning and may kill this play. On the other hand, current Giant players who have face Cashner are a combined .320 vs the righty. There's a huge difference in era's between these 2 pitchers, especially the past 3 games.
Giants TT over
I'm hoping to get at worst 4.5 for this number, but may play it up to 5. As stated above, Giant hitters are rocking Cashner. On top of that, his season era at 5.40 and last 3 at 9.00 raises my eyebrows.
Cubs to win
Both the Cubs and Rangers limped into the all star break. Once the Rangers' pitching staff gets healthy, they are going to be a force to be reckoned with again. But they aren't there right now. Hendricks has been rock solid, especially at home. 5-1 1.67. Meanwhile, Perez is not impressive, especially on the road. 1-4 5.23. I just hope the juice is less than -170 on this one.
Cubs TT over
May play this one up to 5. I'm trying to stay away from 5.5 or more on TTs. Cubs are averaging 5.69 rpg vs lefties, and they're facing a struggling road lefty. One thing that concerns me is that the Cubs are only hitting .242 at Wrigley this year. I'd rather play the Cubs to win, but we'll see.
Red to win
What? Well, DeSclafani is a stud on the mound so far. 3-0 with a 2.23 era and 1.29 whip. Brewers hit .244 vs righties with 3.92 rpg. Meanwhile, Garza is sporting a 5.54 era, 8.44 last 3 games. On the road he is 0-2 5.40 era. Jay Bruce is hitting .375 with 3 home runs in 32 at bats vs Garza, and Votto at .286 in 28 at bats. Phillips .345 in 29 at bats. And Suarez .800 in 5 at bats. He can't pitch around all these guys. I'm hoping to get a better number than -150.
Reds TT over
For reasons stated above, the Reds have hit Garza pretty darn well. Plus the extra motivation to give good run support for a pitcher who keeps them in games. I may be willing to go up to 5, but would rather see 4.5 or better.
That's all I have for now. Still waiting on starting pitchers to be announced.
2016 1st Half: 268-220 +40.44 units
