Montreal at Pittsburgh

[Feddz]

Quickie for anyone not aware of this yet, as I've mentioned it before, but Vic in particular has trumpeted it for a while now:

Montreal is the lowest-scoring first period team in the league, with 12GF in 38 games. They are second-last in 1P goal differential with -17 (EDM -19).

Pittsburgh is the highest-scoring first period team in the league, with 46GF in 38 games. They are also first overall in 1P goal differential with +19.

I don't know why these numbers are so skewed for teams with almost identical records, but there you have it.

Strangely, PIT is only 26GF - 18GA in 1st periods at home this season (21 games). They've led after 1 period 9 times, been tied 6 times and trailed 6 times. So they're good at home to start the game, but even better on the road. That could easily be (as all these stats could be) variance though. With such a small sample size a couple or PPS or PKs here and there can really skew the numbers.

On the flip side, Montreal on the road in 1st periods is: 5GF and 16GA. So even worse on the road than at home. They have only led ONCE after 1P all season so far in 20 road games, and have trailed 11 times.

Seems to be some decent value on PIT 1P ML -135 and PIT 1P -0.5 +174

GLTA

 

[VegasVic]

Montreal has had the lead after the first period just 4 times in 38 games this year, 4-19-15. Habs have been consistent slow starters this year. This trend is not receding. In their last 16 games Montreal has only had the lead twice after one period of play. Once was against Carolina who can’t score goals against anyone. The other was at home against L.A. who was playing their 3rd in 4 after a game the night before in Ottawa. Martin Jones was the goalie for the Kings.

Mike Johnson has drummed into his players heads that they should strive to get a certain amount of shots on net in the first period. I forget the number but it was something like 12. These fast starts by Pittsburgh are by design. When you watch their games they just continue to fire shots at every opportunity. In Montreal’s last 19 games they have allowed at least 10 SOG in the 1st period 11 times. They are often badly outshot. 3-14 against the NYI four games ago, 4-14 against the Kings eight games ago, 5-11 by Dallas a couple games before that.

The addition of Perron can only help to spark a injured offense. Factor in Fluery was rested last night while Price played. Price has played just once on consecutive nights this year, (lost to Dallas 4-1). While he only allowed three goals the Habs were outshot 11-5 and lost the first period 1-0. I think you see Tokarski tonight.

I’m with you on this. I’ll try the ML at -135.

 

[goin4broke]

solid info thanks boys

 

[VegasVic]

Goaliepost is reporting Price will start.

 

[Feddz]

Goaliepost is reporting Price will start.

yeah saw that - thanks for posting. Surprising, as goalies playing B2B have atrocious save%/GAA, and it's not like Tokarski has played poorly. Good for us!

 

[VegasVic]

yeah saw that - thanks for posting. Surprising, as goalies playing B2B have atrocious save%/GAA, and it's not like Tokarski has played poorly. Good for us!

yup..I decided that at +175 the value is really with the spread. Considering Montreal is 4-19-15 in the first period and Pittsburgh is 21-8-9.

+175 is a clear overlay

 

[Feddz]

yup..I decided that at +175 the value is really with the spread. Considering Montreal is 4-19-15 in the first period and Pittsburgh is 21-8-9.

+175 is a clear overlay

absolutely. Only worry is that their last 3 road games have seen ZERO goals scored in the first. Having said that, those games were at CAR, FLA, NJD, all bottom-5 in the league for GF/GP. I think we see a lot more O from the Pens than any of them provided!

I'll probably split between a couple of units on the ML, and one on the spread.

 

[APOLLYON]

Hey, Feddz
Where I can find 1 period goals split between Home/Away?
Been looking for such stats for months and all I could find was just First Period GF/GA Overall...

 

[goin4broke]

fuck

 

[goin4broke]

they missed goalie interference on that 1st goal

 

[goin4broke]

unreal

 

[Feddz]

Un. Real.
I am like kryptonite for these fucking trends. I should just keep my mouth shut

 

[BigHurt007]

Please keep posting this info. I rarely visit this forum for anything besides Dunkel(thanks CNOTES!), as the majority of posts just seem to be fave picks with no analysis
Was a very solid bet, sorry it didn't hit for you gents

 

[scottcarter]

You win some and you lose some Feddz

It was a surprising 1P

get em next time

good write up eh!

 

[Feddz]

Yeah thanks guys. As you all suggested, I still think it was a good play, but sometimes you lose anyway! Winnipeg cashed big so it was still a good night!

 

[VegasVic]

Yeah thanks guys. As you all suggested, I still think it was a good play, but sometimes you lose anyway! Winnipeg cashed big so it was still a good night!

Short term results vs. long term.

I know this isn’t the first time you’re playing this angle. We’ve made money on it for two years now. A mere hiccup. As scottcarter said, we’re not going to win them every night.

Really appreciate your write-ups and inspiring us to get the conversation going around here. I remember the days when that was the bread and butter of this forum. I wish you were around in the early days to see how much participation this hockey forum had. The quality of the content, lack of trolling, and concerted effort was second to none on the interweb. It was amazing.

Half a season left. Let’s help bring back the glory days.