MoneyManage ?: Always bet 1 unit or vary according to confidence

[BuckEyez]

All,
For those who do not know, yesterday was the culmination of an amazingly awful streak.
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=802099163&m=174104721

My question is this.

Should you vary your wagers from 1 unit - 7 units, 1 unit - 5 units, or always bet 1 unit ?

I appreciate all advice. I know some of the best cappers on this board vary their wagers, e.g. CoCaptain, however, what is the general consensus?

 

[jwblue]

I have been an every day gambler for about 3 months. From posts on this forum, and my own experience, 1% seems to be what most people do for each unit. 3 units is the most people usually put down on a bet.

IS

 

Buck you may have good luck posting this up in the main forum and searching for money management threads. There were a couple (I think by Ted or SSI) that were really good reads.

Good luck man..keep your head up.

sb

 

[SportSavant]

MONEY MANAGEMENT & DISCIPLINE ARE DEFINATELY THE TWO TOUGHEST DEMONS TO BEAT...Check out my website there are a few articles there you can read, I have been at it 14 YEARS & trust me when I say to Start you should FLAT BET...Determine an amount of Money that you could afford to lose in a Worst Case Scenerio, Dont know what it would be for you but as an example use 10000$

ONLY PLAY 1% or 1.5% on EACH GAME (ie 100$ or 150$ on each game)

May seem at bit boring but what you are trying to do is get to 12000$...If you get there you woll increase your bets by 20% to 120$ or 160$....If by a stroke of bad luck you lose & your bankroll goes down to 8000$ you decrease your bets to 80$ & 120$.

YOU WILL PROTECT YOURSELF & IT IS VERY HARD TO LOSE THIS WAY...

Thing is 98% of us here know that this is a sound method, but applying it is a different story, why?

Discipline, Emotions, Desire to Chase...all demons that will get the majority of Gamblers...Two weekends ago I lost discipline & 30% of my bankroll over two days...I openly discussed it here as I am an honest person...Since then I am back on the Horse & have made 5% back. If you can Get this Discipline & Money Management Thing Working...Picking Winners Comes Next...

Even a MONKEY could propably not lose too much by throwing darts at a newspaper with the above Formula

 

[SportSavant]

ARTICLE WRITTEN BY POSTER OLDMANTED***HIS SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE INTRICATE AS HE DOES 1-5* PLAYS BUT IT IS BASED ON THE SAME FUNDAMENTALS WITH THE VAST MAJORITY BEING 1% PLAYS:


Decided to write this thread as there seems to be a significant interest in this subject and it can be used as a supplement to the thread started by augs15 which addresses the beginner or lower level player. The intention is to provide thoughts as a player advances with experience. So with that in mind let me begin.

To start, I am going to provide the readers with a sample of a complete football season from preseason through the superbowl. The intention is to show that even with a modest win percentage, one can end up with a significant overall return on their starting bankroll without making an exceptionally large wager. So let's begin.

We will start with the bankroll. For simplicity, I will assume that posters make an assignment that 1 unit equals $100. The 1 unit should equal 1% of the bankroll. Therefore, a player at this level should be starting with a bankroll of $10,000. My example will use these as the basis. I will also use a varying wagering style wherein a player will rate his wagers from 1 to 5 units or 1% to 5% respectively. Futhermore, the amount of the wager will vary as the bankroll varies. Thus, as it increases, so does the wager and as it decreases so does the wager but with one guideline. The unit value stays constant until the bankroll increases or decreases in 20% increments. Thus, 1 unit remains at $100 until the bankroll reaches $12,000 or $8,000. This allows for a period of relatively consistent levels for a longer period of time until the bankroll is significantly changed either up or down.

Now that these parameters are in place, let me show you the results of my entire 2002 football season. You will note that I achieved an overall 94.10% return while only winning 55.15% of my wagers, which is an average season and not particularly outstanding, but very much within the capabilities of a decent handicapper. So here it is beginning with the entire year summary followed by individual sub-seasons that make up the total season.

2002 Football Season Summary

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$9,410
Overall W/L Record: 369-300-14
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 55.15%
Overall Unit Record: 711.5-564.5
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 55.76%
5 Unit Plays: 6-1
4 Unit Plays: 32-26-1
3.5 Unit Plays: 7-10
3 Unit Plays: 72-53-1
2.5 Unit Plays: 5-2
2 Unit Plays: 45-36
1.5 Unit Plays: 17-25-4
1 Unit Plays: 185-147-8

NFL Preseason

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$450
Overall W/L Record: 28-22
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 56.00%
Overall Unit Record: 57-46.5
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 55.07%
4 Unit Plays: 4-2
3.5 Unit Plays: 1-1
3 Unit Plays: 6-7
2 Unit Plays: 2-2
1.5 Unit Plays: 1-0
1 Unit Plays: 14-10

College Regular Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$3142
Overall W/L Record: 218-193-8
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 53.04%
Overall Unit Record: 421-357
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 54.11%
5 Unit Plays: 3-1
4 Unit Plays: 28-19-1
3 Unit Plays: 33-30
2.5 Unit Plays: 5-2
2 Unit Plays: 27-29
1.5 Unit Plays: 13-22-3
1 Unit Plays: 109-90-4

Continuing on with the seasons:

College Bowl Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$720
Overall W/L Record: 20-16-1
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 55.55%
Overall Unit Record: 38-28
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 57.58%
5 Unit Plays: 1-0
4 Unit Plays: 0-2
3 Unit Plays: 6-3
2 Unit Plays: 2-0
1 Unit Plays: 11-11-1

NFL Regular Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: +$5354
Overall W/L Record: 95-60-4
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 61.29%
Overall Unit Record: 176.5-113.5
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 60.86%
5 Unit Plays: 1-0
4 Unit Plays: 0-3
3.5 Unit Plays: 6-8
3 Unit Plays: 24-9-1
2 Unit Plays: 13-5
1.5 Unit Plays: 3-3-1
1 Unit Plays: 48-32-2

NFL Post Season

Overall Bankroll Profit: -$256
Overall W/L Record: 8-9-1
Overall W/L Record Percentage: 47.05%
Overall Unit Record: 19-19.5-1
Overall Unit Record Percentage: 49.35%
5 Unit Plays: 1-0
3.5 Unit Plays: 0-1
3 Unit Plays: 3-4
2 Unit Plays: 1-0
1 Unit Plays: 3-4-1

Since I don't know how much space is available, I will close by saying I hope this helps show that one can make a healthy return without having to win an extraordinary percentage or wager in large amounts.

Started this thread in a effort to provide information. Please share your own ideas about middle to advanced level money management.

 

[ElIguana]

BuckEyez,

These are all solid write-ups. My system is much simpler. I really don't bet units, I bet according to how I am doing overall in $$ and according to how much I like the play.

If I'm $$ ahead and on a roll, I will lay out more on each bet. (Don't start making more bets--just increase the $$ on the bets you are already confident about.) When you are losing, don't try to win it all back with one game....as someone said earlier, it's a marathon, not a sprint.

If I really like a play, and then I see other respected cappers on the same play, I bump up the $$ a little bit. If I'm all alone, I'll keep it small. Sometimes the games you feel the weakest on pay off and sometimes the ones you feel "can't lose" do. Constants aren't; variables won't.

The BIGGEST thing to keep in mind is not to focus on how much you can possibly WIN, but always think about what you are willing to LOSE. Very few people make their living solely on gambling. (If they tell you they do, they are probably neglecting to mention how many people they owe money to, how many things they have had to hock for cash, how many maxed-out credit cards they have, etc.) Don't gamble with any $$ you can't afford to lose. It's an old mantra, but it's very true.

When you're in a slump, take a few days off. Just write down what you would have bet and see how you would have done. It's a great feeling looking at the $$ you did NOT lose--sometimes the best wager is the one you don't make. GL