Moneyline v. Spread

[Kobe08]

Has anybody here created or seen a function/ formula maybe for Excel that is a good calculator for a fair moneyline as a function of point spread and over/ under or fair point spread as a function of money line and over/ under?

Of course this varies by sport and for now it would mostly apply for bball.
Everyone is always playing the spread for basketball and it seems like the moneyline could be just as exploitable.

With a fair formula for this, it would seem to be more profitable to bet some games just on ml and some games just on spread.

 

[Groucho]

What a great question. Unfortunately I don't have the info you want (so I hope I didn't get your hopes up when you saw there was a reply) but I have made a note here to come back and check if anything comes up in this thread.

I happen to be a bit of an oddity in that I bet primarily on ML's (dogs only). But I am also very familiar with point spreads and the comparative relationship with the ML - and I frequently see cases where the books balancing contradictory action lead to things being tangibly out-of-whack. And I think, there's gotta be an angle in that. One of those is obviously wrong. But I always do research before I start throwing money behind things so it is all just ideas now. Right now I'm researching ncaab ML's (with no pointspread factor).

Without getting into a major song-and-dance, I do a lot of mathematical research on betting - and you have given me some ideas. Unfortunately I have enough ideas on the back burner to last a lifetime so I may never get to this one. Then again I may. In any case, it's good to see there is something of a like thinker out there.

 

[Kobe08]

Thx Groucho, the ML's from a lot of the books vary a good deal so you can get extremely good prices on these, and so good that sometimes they can be arbitraged.


Any one know how to do a linest on excel but with two or multiple independent variables (spread) and (over under) in this case.
I can do some analysis on how certain spreads and totals influence ML's.

Maybe the best way to analyze this would be to come up with a good mutivariable linear estimate for e(ML)=B0(Spread) +B1(Total)+C.

After you get a linear estimate for this you could look at some of the games you picked. For exampel if you picked the Miami side in the Heat- Sonics game tonight you could see which side gave you more value, the ML or the spread. You could get meaningful analysis without the actual result of the game.

So if you got Heat -1.5 at -105, you can see how this translates in your linear estimate.

If the real top book ML is > then the e(ML) that you get from plugging in the spread and the total. Then it is more profitable to play the ML. If not, it is more profitable to play the spread.

 

[krackman]

"Everyone is always playing the spread for basketball and it seems like the moneyline could be just as exploitable"

YOU ARE 100% CORRECT.

I always try to pay attention to lines that the general public shy away from. The M/L is one of them.

 

[jjgold]

Kobe right the specs for it and post at

rentAcoder.com and these guys will do anything you want for like $40. You will have the best spreadsheet you could ever dream of.

Best site in the world for computer work you want done and 70% cheaper if you were to go find someone in phone book.

Guys from all over the world will bid on your project and within 2 hrs, it is unreal and the guys are brilliant, most from Euro and India

 

[daringly]

Just like in NFL, different numbers occur with different frequencies in basketball. Consequently, spreadsheet formulas don't work very well (at least compared to a simple conversionchart).

Another thing to consider... MLs for home teams are different from visiting teams with the same spread (although not all books adequately adjust for this).

 

[Groucho]

Just to follow-up on what I was saying. (I apologize if I am hijacking the thread and changing the topic). I have just completed a chunk of research on ncaab ML's. I'm going to turn it into an article and shop it around - so I don't want to give away all the details - but I can tell you this: ncaab is the worst sport I have ever researched for betting lop-sided dogs (+200 or more) on the ML. From a mathematical perspective, there is no angle there. Losing proposition in the long-term.