mondays winners

[totalsguru]

yesterday a decent 5-3 day overall, with best bets going 3-1, we made up for most of what we lost on saturday. lets get it all back and more. probabley wont have any plays on tuesday because ive got 2 finals on wednesday, but ill be back wednesday evening with some more winners!!!

by the way, im gonna do something that i did with my clients when i ran my sports service. whatever your bank roll is, use the percentage posted. for example, ill start with a $2000 bankroll. for 2 weeks, we'll use $2000 (yours may be different). after 2 weeks, we will adjust, according to how much we win or lose. if its a 6% play, then play 6.6%, etc

start $2000

8% cle/mem o179.5 ( $176 to win $160)
8% wash/mia u 201.5 ( $176 to win $160)

this may not be the best time to do this because theres only 2 plays. heres a little insite, its easier to make money when playing an odd number of games. to make money here, you have to hit 100% of your games. if you add 1 more, you only need to hit 67%. if youre playing 4 games, you have to go
3-1 (75%) to make money, where as you add 1 more and play 5 games, you only need to go 3-2 (60%) to win, etc.

good luck!!!

good luck everyone!!!

 

[MadCapper]

Just curious where you can cleveland over 179.5 still? Early this morning you could at 179 - 180. Now the lowest is 182.5

thanx

 

[MadCapper]

btw,

continued success my man!

what a start for you. wish you were posting here years earlier.

keep on keeping on my man!

good luck!

-MC

 

[totalsguru]

local...thats why in the pod thread, i will either put nothing or olympic. if i put nothing, its through my local man, if i put (oly), i used olympic. in my opinion, it will still go over the 182.5 its at now at most sportsbooks. the only good part about having a local is in situations like this. he usually doesnt update his lines until 2-3pm because most people dont bet through the week until 5 or so after work. i dont think the 3 pt. change will make a difference.

good luck everyone!!!

 

[totalsguru]

in case you dont check the college hoops board, also playing:

8% wf/tem u 141.5 (176 to win 160)
6% sd -6 (132 to win 120)

good luck

 

[BIGWave]

WELL DONE!!!!!!

3-1 for the night and plus 13.4% of your bankroll............too bad I was away all day and missed your post.
Looking forward to seeing the plays for tomorrow!!

 

[totalsguru]

thanks. i will not have anything tomorrow because ive got 2 finals on wednesday, but will be back wednesday evening with some more winners.

hoops ytd :51-20 (72%)

1st day of money management 101:

+$264
+13.2% profit

bankroll starting on wednesday: $2264

good luck and see ya on wednesday!!!

 

[valetpkr]

Great job !!!!!


Keep it up........

 

[_wheredatreezat]

Funny how you mentioned to bet odd games to need a lower % to win games. That seems very simple, yet I've never thought of that. After reading, I had 4 bets....Wake, KC, KC Over and Stanford....so what do I do...I end up taking the Clippers too......DAMN, they were rolling along, I actually went to bed, only to find out they lost in 2OT. Oh well, still a 3-2 day.


BY they way, great job so far, will be paying more attn.


GL on your tests man, finals suck. Ridelin and a few all nighters will do the trick...make up for a semesters worth of work in ONE night.

Treez

 

[dolphin]

Total's Guru...

Just a thought, although you may know this already. Most professional gamblers use a "half-Kelly" apportioning of bets. The Kelly criterion has you betting the same percent of your bankroll as your perceived edge. "Half-Kelly" is much better for bankroll preservation and protects you against often unintentionally overstated expectations.

 

[totalsguru]

yeah where, they do. i pulled an all nighter last night and will be doing it again tonight. beware of the plays tomorrow as they will be picked by someone who hasnt slept in 2 days...lol. jk, ill pick some winners.

dolphin, im not sure what the kelly criteria is. is it just betting the same amount on every game? i used different ratings with my clients and seemed to work very well. they pretty much hit along this line:

10* 72%-76%
8* 65%-70%
6* 60%-65%

not exact totals, but it went the way it should. some cappers you see their Bonus Plays hitting higher than their top rated plays, which would make the kelly criteria a good idea. if im totally wrong on the idea, let me know. always trying to get an edge. thats why i love this forum...so much great insight.

 

[totalsguru]

these arent official plays, as i dont have time to research any games. i just went through and tried to find a few good ones...


mavs -9.5
la/sea o199
ind/atl o 184.5
siena -2
sd. st. +1

off to study
good luck !!!!

 

[Stilwell]

Kelly/half kelly

Total's Guru...

Just a thought, although you may know this already. Most professional gamblers use a "half-Kelly" apportioning of bets. The Kelly criterion has you betting the same percent of your bankroll as your perceived edge. "Half-Kelly" is much better for bankroll preservation and protects you against often unintentionally overstated expectations.

Dolphin,
Would you mind elaborating a bit on the Kelly/half Kelly