Mondays Service Play Thread 10/1

[patriots12]

Big Al


At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the SD Padres with Jake Peavy over Colorado. Although the Rockies are the hottest team going right now, they've never fared well vs. Peavy, who will win the NL Cy Young Award this year. Peavy leads the Majors in ERA (2.36) and is second in wins (19). And he's also 10-1 in his last 13 starts, and his ERA this season vs. Colorado is 1.29 (in two starts). Josh Fogg has also pitched well lately, but his ERA this season vs. the Padres was a poor 6.28 (in three starts). This is also a rare time one can bet on Jake Peavy and lay less than -160. He's faced 10 National League clubs this year with odds less than -160 and the Padres were 9-1 with their only loss coming back in April (3-2 to Arizona), and Peavy threw seven shutout innings in that game, but the SD bullpen let him down. Josh Fogg does his worst work at home (6.28 ERA this year), while Peavy's over-performed on the road (2.16 ERA this year).

Take San Diego

 

[dino]

BULLSEYE SPORTS from sportswire
MNF GOY Bengals

 

[patriots12]

Indian Cowboy

Monday NFL

New England @ Cincy

Is this another opportunity for the Patriots to show their dominance and to play with a chip on their shoulder after the harsh punishment that came down on Coach B? I think so. Humorous that the Pats have scored 38 points in each of their last 3 victories. The Bengals defense is horrible and continues to be overrated each year as this team miraculously gets overrated each year. Each year, they hear the cries of going dancing into the playoffs, and each year they fall short. In essence, they are like the NFC's St. Louis Rams of a couple years ago and even last year when there is so much expectations, but all that results are one L behind another L, behind another L. The total opened at 52 and has moved up to 53.5 in most places with some sprinkles of 54 in some places as well. The spread also opened up at -7 and has moved up to -7.5 and I've even seem some -8 and-8.5 earlier in the week until it has been bought down a bit of late. Rudi Johnson is not expected to play but he hasn't done all that well anywhere this year so it could be useful for the Bengals to see something different. New England has covered the last 5 ballgames from last year and are 3-0 ATS including covering a huge spread against the Bills last time out. NE has covered the last 2 years as the last 2 games totaled 51 and 36 and both of those games were on the road. This is going to be fun watching the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league in New England hit the road to face the #3 offense and 30th ranked defense in the league. I think this game goes NE and the Under.
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[dino]

INFO PLAYS

NFL:


10* Pats/Bengals Barn Burner on Cincinnati +7.5



The Linesmakers are obviously putting too much stock in the Patriots’ brilliant start to the season. Cincinnati will make these linesmakers look like fools when they beat the Pats straight u today. The Bengals are a totally different team on their home turf. The Bengals are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with New England. This play falls under a system that is 29-8 since 1983 hitting 78%. This system tells us to play on an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points with a poor first half defense, allowing 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 3 points or less. Cincinnati will bounce back at home against New England Monday and pick up a huge win to get their season on track. Bet Cincinnati.



MLB



8* MAJOR NL Wild Card Crippler on Colorado +130

(Listing Fogg)



The Colorado Rockies made their huge run by taking 5 out of 6 games from San Diego in the month of September. Now they get the chance to put the finishing touches on an unbelievable run to make the postseason. Josh Fogg is just the guy that can earn the Rockies their 14th win in 15 games. Fogg is 3-0 in the month of September with a 3.25 ERA. He, along with the rest of the Rockies’ staff, have saved their best efforts for the end of the season. Coors Field will be sold out and rowdy tonight when the Rockies’ hitters get to Jake Peavy early and often. The Rockies are hitting .300 in their last 10 ball games. Colorado is 11-1 in their last 12 games as the underdog. They have been the dog all season so this will be nothing new for Colorado. Bet the Rockies in an inspiring win.

 

[dino]

Ben Burns' Monday Night Game of the Month (3-0 YTD!)

Cincy Bengals

 

[nikeairx]

BIG AL's 23-2 ATS MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR.
BIG AL's 90% NL PLAYOFF PAYOFF (AL'S 14-7 LAST 21)

 

[trains40]

BIG AL'S BASEBALL PLAY:

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the SD Padres with Jake Peavy over Colorado. Although the Rockies are the hottest team going right now, they've never fared well vs. Peavy, who will win the NL Cy Young Award this year. Peavy leads the Majors in ERA (2.36) and is second in wins (19). And he's also 10-1 in his last 13 starts, and his ERA this season vs. Colorado is 1.29 (in two starts). Josh Fogg has also pitched well lately, but his ERA this season vs. the Padres was a poor 6.28 (in three starts). This is also a rare time one can bet on Jake Peavy and lay less than -160. He's faced 10 National League clubs this year with odds less than -160 and the Padres were 9-1 with their only loss coming back in April (3-2 to Arizona), and Peavy threw seven shutout innings in that game, but the SD bullpen let him down. Josh Fogg does his worst work at home (6.28 ERA this year), while Peavy's over-performed on the road (2.16 ERA this year). Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

 

[patriots12]

Gamblers World

TIP OF THE DAY
Sport: NFL Football

Game: 8:30PM, Pats visit Cats in well-armed Monday Night battle

Prediction: The Patriots

Current Line: -6

Over/Under: 51.5

Reason: The Patriots have laughed their way to three straight routs. The
Bengals are lucky they aren't 0-3. New England looks to replicate last
year's 38-13 destruction here last season and since they have scored 38
points each week in 2007, that sounds about right.

Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 6-point favorites
versus the Bengals, while the game's total is sitting at 51½.

The Patriots routed Buffalo 38-7 as a 16.5-point favorite in Week 3. The
combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).

Tom Brady threw for 291 yards with four touchdown passes for New
England, while Randy Moss caught five passes for 115 yards with two
touchdowns.

The Bengals lost to Seattle 24-21 as a 3-point underdog in Week 3. The
combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (49.5).

Carson Palmer completed 27-of-43 passes for 342 yards with a touchdown
and two interceptions and T.J. Houshmandzadeh caught 12 passes for 141
yards with a touchdown.

 

[dino]

Marc Lawrence 100% NFL MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH! - Monday 10/1

Play On: Cincinnati Bengals
Note: Monday night road favorites off BB wins of 20 or more points are 5-17 ATS, including 0-5 ATS if they are undefeated on the season. With the Bengals off back-to-back losses, grab the points in a game loaded with value here tonight. No surprise to see Cincinnati win this game straight-up!

 

[dino]

VEGAS EXPERTS

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Monday, October 1st, 8:30 P.M. EDT

Offense should be the name of the game here. Bengals 33-17 Over at home vs. a team with a winning record since 1992. Additional supporting angles say to Play Over - Any team against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, with a great scoring defense - allowing 14 or less points/game (57-27 since 1983, 67.9%), Play Over - Any team against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in the first month of the season (38-14 since 1983, 73.1%) and Play Over - Road teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - off a home win by 10 points or more, undefeated on the season (51-23 since 1983, 68.9%).

Play on: Over

 

[dino]

JEFF BENTON

Patriots-Bengals game to go OVER the total

There really isn’t much to analyze here, as there are obviously a boatload of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, from the Palmer/Ocho Cinco/T.J. trifecta to the explosive Brady/Moss/Stallworth/Welker combination.
Through three games, the Bengals have averaged 31 points and 393 yards per contest, incluing 301 passing yards per game, and they’ve scored at least 24 points in all three contests. Meanwhile, New England has tallied exactly 38 points in all three of its games, rolling up 441 yards of total offense in the process (289 ypg passing).
Well, tonight, the Pats face a porous Bengals’ defense that’s allowing 31.7 points and 402.7 points per outing, so you know New England is going to put points on the board. And while the Pats’ defense has been extremely stout so far, it hasn’t faced an offense as complete and potent as Cincinnati’s. Thus, you have to figure that the Bengals will find the end zone on multiple occasions, too.
Throw in some juicy trends – the Patriots have topped the total in all three of their games this season, Cincinnati has done so in two of its three and the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings – and this one pretty much becomes a no-brainer.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)

3♦ Bengals-Patriots OVER

 

[dino]

Totals 4 U

Padres/rockies Under 9

 

[dino]

Nevada Sharpshooter

Under 9 Runs Padres/rockies

 

[dino]

TONY WESTON

Maybe San Diego Padres manager Bud Black is the smartest manager in all of baseball. Black decided to not start Jake Peavy against the Brewers on Sunday, opting to save his soon-to-be Cy Young winner for a potential one-game playoff against the Colorado Rockies instead.
The Pads lose to the Brewers and are forced to play that extra game in Colorado against the hottest team in all of baseball.
Peavy will get the start and try to pitch San Diego to the postseason.
I know the Rockies have been unstoppable lately. But Jake Peavy isn't just the best pitcher in the National League, he may very well be the best pitcher in all of baseball.
Black knows what he's doing and is making the right decision going with Peavy against the Rockies' Josh Fogg.
It'll be tight, probably a one-run game, but Peavy will pitch the Pads into the postseason.


3♦ PADRES (on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

 

[dino]

#1 Sports

Padres/rockies Under 9

 

[madmexican44]

hi dino

great work
what do you think of dan gordon is he any good ??
thanks
mad

 

[dino]

HAWKEYE SPORTS

Colorado & San Diego under 9 runs

 

[dino]

THS SPORTS ADVISORS

MLB

NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Diego (89-73) at Colorado (89-73)

The regular season wasn’t long enough to decide the N.L. wild-card winner, so the Padres send ace Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36 ERA) to the mound tonight in a one-game tiebreaker against the Rockies’ Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79) at Coors Field.
San Diego had a chance to win its way into the postseason Sunday in Milwaukee, but it blew an early 3-0 lead and fell 11-6 to the Brewers. Once the Padres lost, the Rockies needed to beat the Diamondbacks to extend their season and they came through, eking out a 4-3 victory for their 13th win in their last 14 games.
The Rockies won the season series from San Diego 10-8, winning the last four meetings in a row.
Peavy has been dominant down the stretch, going 7-1 in his last 10 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last three. The lone no-decision in his last three outings came against Colorado on Sept 21, when the righthander allowed just a run on three hits in seven innings, with Colorado pulling out a 2-1 victory. Only once in Peavy’s last 10 starts has he allowed more than two earned runs, and that was when he started on three days’ rest in Arizona on Sept. 5, the only time all year he did that.
On the road this year, Peavy is an amazing 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA. Also, in two starts against the Rockies this season, Peavy has registered a 1.29 ERA, failing to get a decision in either contest. For his career, Peavy is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA in six starts at Coors Field.
Fogg threw 6 2/3 innings of shutout baseball Wednesday in Los Angeles, blanking the Dodgers on five hits in a 2-0 win. He is 3-0 in his last six outings and hasn’t lost since Aug. 22.
Fogg is 5-4 at home this season with a 5.66 ERA. One of those victories came against the Padres on Sept. 9, when he gave up just one run on seven hits in five innings of a 4-2 win. However, in two other starts against San Diego this year, Fogg allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 9 1/3 innings, and Colorado lost both games.
For his career, Fogg is 3-2 in nine career starts against San Diego with a 5.48 ERA.
The over was 7-1 in the Padres’ last eight to close the regular season, while the total has alternated in Colorado’s last six games. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO


THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL

New England (3-0 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
The high-scoring, unbeaten Patriots travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a nationally televised contest at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Bengals come into this one off last week’s 24-21 loss at Seattle, though they did cash as a 3½-point underdog. In its lone home game this season, Cincinnati beat Baltimore 27-20 as a 2½-point chalk.
New England has scored 38 points in each of its first three games, beating the Jets and Chargers by identical 38-14 scores and then trouncing the Bills 38-7 as a 16½-point chalk at home last week.
Ironically, Bill Belichick’s Patriots scored exactly 38 points a year ago in Cincinnati, beating the Bengals 38-13 as 5½-point underdogs and sending the Bengals into a 5-8 tailspin to end the season. Prior to last year’s clash, Cincinnati had been on a 4-0 ATS run against New England.
Patriots QB Tom Brady leads the NFL with a 141.8 quarterback rating, completing almost 80 percent of his throws for 887 yards, 10 TDs and just one INT. His favorite target has quickly become newcomer Randy Moss, who has 403 yards receiving and five TDs.
Tonight the Patriots face a Cincinnati defense giving up 402.7 yards and 31.7 points per game, fourth-worst in the NFL in both categories.
Offensively, Marvin Lewis’ Bengals rank second in passing offense, with QB Carson Palmer throwing for 937 yards and nine TDs. WR Chad Johnson has 442 yards receiving and fellow WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh leads the NFL with 46 catches.
New England is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 road games, 23-8 ATS against teams with a losing record and has cashed a ticket in seven of the last 10 appearances on Monday night.
Cincinnati is mired in a 1-10 ATS slump in Week 4 games and 3-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.
The over is 3-0 for the Pats this season and 2-1 for the Bengals. Also, the last three regular-season clashes between these squads have topped the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and OVER

 

[dino]

Hd's Actionline

San Diego & Colorado Under 9 Runs!

 

[dino]

Chuck Franklin


2500♦ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Let’s see… we’ve got the New England Patriots, rated # 1 in both total offense and defense, matching up with the Cincinnati Bengals, who are rated 5th in total offense and 29th in overall defense. Do you need any more reason to side with the Pats in this one? New England has been the best bet in the NFL since October of 2006, and are on an 8-1 ATS run. The Patriots are also very profitable on the road, covering nine of the last 11 times in that situation. Cincinnati has a terrible record as home underdogs, failing to cover six of the last seven times in that situation.
I expect to see the Patriots’ smothering defense shut down and frustrate the Bengals’ best feature; their talented but mouthy wire receiver combination of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson. And since their best rusher Rudi Johnson will likely be absent from this game due to a hamstring injury, Cincinnati will be in a tough spot. The Bengals are giving up nearly 32 points per game, so they obviously don’t have the defensive strength they will need to compete with the high-scoring Patriots. Look for New England to exploit this and easily cover this spread.

Chuck Franklin

SAN DIEGO w/PEAVY over Colorado w/Fogg

Last night San Diego missed their chance to clinch the final major league playoff slot, but have the advantage in the tiebreaker game with Colorado tonight. The Rockies’ exciting charge to conclude the season will end tonight with a loss to the Padres. The pitching match-up definitely favors San Diego with Jake Peavy on the mound. Peavy is an impressive 19-6 on the season, posting a nice low 2.36 ERA. In his last three games he is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Peavy is also a profitable 10-1 on the road this season.
Colorado will start the just better than average Josh Fogg, who is 10-9 on the season with an ERA of 4.79. Fogg is only 1-0 in his last three starts, and just 5-4 here at Coors Field this year. The Rockies have performed admirably, winning 13 of their last 14 games. Even so, I’m siding with the Padres, the overall better team, led by the far better pitcher to get the win in this play-in game.

3♦ PADRES