I have furman as my best bet today for a couple reasons. First, even though they are tied in the southern conference at 0-4, I feel there is a big difference. Furmans four losses have been by an average of 4.5 points. Meanwhile The citadel's average margin in those four losses is 21.5. Second factor is the strength of schedule. Furman has been competitive on the road at both Minnesota and Ohio St. Granted those 2 teams aren't powerhouses but it is a far cry from Citadel's schedule. mix in the ATS record of 6-0 away and 3-1 vs conference compared to Citadel's 0-7 at home 0-4 as home dog, equates to a Furman win by at least 15.
By all means I'm just offering my opinion as a way of helping the discussion.
GOOD LUCK
By all means I'm just offering my opinion as a way of helping the discussion.
GOOD LUCK
Hey JW - its nice to see that I'm not the only one in the 30% club...
We'll pull out of it.
I'm looking at Pitt and Texas Tech - but Birdman advises me otherwise on both. Any thoughts about those two games?
My reasoning was that Oklahoma seems to be finished by all accounts now that they are showing what they are made of against a better tier of competition (last 4 games 1-3, at margins -3Princeton, +27CT, +21OKState, and +4Missouri). Admittedly Tech is a step down from some of those teams but I wouldn't put them at the bottom by any means. Tech BEAT OKState by 21, Minnesota by 17, Utah by 11, and so on.
The -7.5 is a lot of points so I'm considering spending a few bucks to buy it down to 4.5 just in case. Clearly using OkState as a guide this should be no contest - but I know that in reality shit happens so thats why I'd play it safe (if I play this one at all).
I like Pitt because I think that if you take out meaningless games from Uconn's schedule they arent really doing as great as the media has them cracked up to be. Losing to oGeorgia Tech and North Carolina is a place to start - but Only beating rutgers by 1? Squeaking by Yale by only 10? Beating Rice by 9? and Nevada by 14? And you're asking them to beat Pittsburgh by 10, undefeated - having faced Miami, ND, Florida State, Bama, Rutgers, Georgia, Penn State, and Virginia Tech (winning these games by an average of just under 12 pts)?
Am I getting suckered into these two? Or am I usung good judgement?
HELP
We'll pull out of it.
I'm looking at Pitt and Texas Tech - but Birdman advises me otherwise on both. Any thoughts about those two games?
My reasoning was that Oklahoma seems to be finished by all accounts now that they are showing what they are made of against a better tier of competition (last 4 games 1-3, at margins -3Princeton, +27CT, +21OKState, and +4Missouri). Admittedly Tech is a step down from some of those teams but I wouldn't put them at the bottom by any means. Tech BEAT OKState by 21, Minnesota by 17, Utah by 11, and so on.
The -7.5 is a lot of points so I'm considering spending a few bucks to buy it down to 4.5 just in case. Clearly using OkState as a guide this should be no contest - but I know that in reality shit happens so thats why I'd play it safe (if I play this one at all).
I like Pitt because I think that if you take out meaningless games from Uconn's schedule they arent really doing as great as the media has them cracked up to be. Losing to oGeorgia Tech and North Carolina is a place to start - but Only beating rutgers by 1? Squeaking by Yale by only 10? Beating Rice by 9? and Nevada by 14? And you're asking them to beat Pittsburgh by 10, undefeated - having faced Miami, ND, Florida State, Bama, Rutgers, Georgia, Penn State, and Virginia Tech (winning these games by an average of just under 12 pts)?
Am I getting suckered into these two? Or am I usung good judgement?
HELP
