NOTE: This RedBox Bowl game analysis had a typo, stating Illinois rather than California in the closing. I have corrected the brain-you-know-what. My apologies for any confusion.
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PLAY: Cal Golden Bears -6 (good to -7)
4% confidence rating
(249) ILLINOIS at (250) CALIFORNIA
The Bears (7-5) are in their second straight holiday bowl event and square off against the Fighting Illini (6-6) who are playing in their first bowl game since 2014
Cal lost to TCU in last year's Cheez-It Bowl -- a game that was a snooze-fest for those that watch football for offensive action. Last season's Cheez-game was in one of the lowest-scoring bowl games in the last 25 years. Illinois head coach Lovie Smith is on the verge of having his first winning season as the Illini bench boss.
This isn't being labeled as such but all things transparent it is... a home game for California. The Golden Bears have the versatility to be whomever they want on offense. They have a pair of quarterbacks that are interchangeable depending on their plan of attack and the opponent. Sophomore Chase Garbers and junior Devon Modster combined for 2,205 passing yards, 410 rushing yards, and 18 touchdowns. The bell cow in the offensive backfield is RB Christopher Brown Jr who’s is lightning of the offensive skilled players. The tailback posted 943 yards from scrimmage with 11 combined touchdowns.
Cal is, as the Illini are, defense-first. The Bears averaged 20.1 points and 323.0 yards per game
The Illini are led by quarterback Brandon Peters, running backs Reggie Corbin, Dre Brown, and Ra'Von Bonner. Smith's offense averages 27.3 ppg. Illinois went over the 30-point mark in six regular-season games but have faced but one defense as skilled and capable as the Bears.
The Illini rank near the bottom of most important offensive categories. They gained, on average, over 509 yards less against their opponents this year than the foe allowed on average.
Cal’s offensive efficiency, adjusted, places them in the plus-yardage category in each and every game this season. The Cal offense averaged only 323 yds per game but factoring in numbers, i.e. time of possession and others puts them on top of the Illini on both offense and defense. On the stop-side of the ball the Bears have an overwhelming advantage. And the offense is, for the first time this season, intact, healthy and ready to send QB Garbers behind center to start in this RedBox event -- a game in which Cal controls from start to finish and the best team and eventual winner in this holiday contest is never in question.
Both teams will surprise and score more than projected and do enough on defense to keep their teams competitive. But this resilient and surging Cal team will find a way to pull away from Illinois in a closely contested first half and close out a victory by margin in the end.
CALIFORNIA BEARS -6
MARCO D'ANGELOFOOTBALL PLAYS
- FIRST RESPONDER BOWL
Game: (245) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (246) Western Kentucky
Date/Time: Dec 30 2019 12:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: WESTERN MICHIGAN 3.5 (-114)
View Analysis
3% W. MICHIGAN +3.5
W. Michigan is what I like to refer to as a 200 Club member meaning they they run and pass for over 200 yards per game. These teams present big problems for defenses to prepare as what do you try to take away. Stop the run they will hit you with the passing attack drop back to stop the pass and they run it down your throat. W. Michigan has the #17 offense gaining 6.5 YPP. In what should be a high scoring game I have to back the better offense. My numbers have W. Michigan winning 31-24 in the First Responders Bowl. - COLLEGE BOWL HIGH ROLLER PLAY
Game: (249) ILLINOIS at (250) CALIFORNIA
Date/Time: Dec 30 2019 4:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: CALIFORNIA -6.0 (-108)
View Analysis
4% CALIFORNIA -6
Two major factors have us lining up on California. First off California has played a much tougher schedule than Illinois. The California defense is good as they allowed 20 or fewer points in 9 of their 12 games. California won their first 4 games of the season before losing their next 4 games in a row. The losing streak started when starting QB Chase Garbers was injured in the Arizona St game. Garbers returned to start the final two games of the season both victories. Fact is this Cal offense is totally different with Garbers at QB. The site of this Bowl Game greatly favors California. I know that the PAC 12 has had it’s troubles in the Bowls but I feel this is a mismatch with Garbers back at QB. My numbers have California winning 31-17 as my BOWL HIGH ROLLER PLAY.
Miller picks
12/31/2019
3:45 pm est ncaaf
kansas state vs. Navy
pick: Kansas state +2.5 (-101)
risk: 11 units
4:30 pm est ncaaf
georgia state vs. Wyoming
pick: Wyoming -7 (-102)
risk: 11 units
1/1/2020
1:00 pm est ncaaf
michigan vs. Alabama
pick: Michigan +7 (-108)
risk: 11 units
1:00 pm est ncaaf
minnesota u vs. Auburn
pick: Minnesota u +7 (-106)
risk: 11 units
8:45 pm est ncaaf
baylor vs. Georgia
pick: Georgia -5.5 (-102)
risk: 11 units
1/2/2020
3:05 pm est ncaaf
boston college vs. Cincinnati u
pick: Cincinnati u -7 (-112)
risk: 11 units
7:00 pm est ncaaf
tennessee vs. Indiana
pick: Tennessee -1.5 (-116)
risk: 11 units
12/31/2019
3:45 pm est ncaaf
kansas state vs. Navy
pick: Kansas state +2.5 (-101)
risk: 11 units
4:30 pm est ncaaf
georgia state vs. Wyoming
pick: Wyoming -7 (-102)
risk: 11 units
1/1/2020
1:00 pm est ncaaf
michigan vs. Alabama
pick: Michigan +7 (-108)
risk: 11 units
1:00 pm est ncaaf
minnesota u vs. Auburn
pick: Minnesota u +7 (-106)
risk: 11 units
8:45 pm est ncaaf
baylor vs. Georgia
pick: Georgia -5.5 (-102)
risk: 11 units
1/2/2020
3:05 pm est ncaaf
boston college vs. Cincinnati u
pick: Cincinnati u -7 (-112)
risk: 11 units
7:00 pm est ncaaf
tennessee vs. Indiana
pick: Tennessee -1.5 (-116)
risk: 11 units
