Monday Service Play Thread 12/15/2025

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nflvip info
American football USA NFL
Pittsburgh Steelers – Miami Dolphins
Under 42
 

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JEFF MICHAELS​

(525) DALLAS MAVERICKS AT (526) UTAH JAZZ​

Date/Time:
Dec 15 2025 9:10 PM EST
Line Provider:
Consensus Line
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-110
Play:
Total Over 239.0 (-110)
(525) Dallas Mavericks at (526) Utah Jazz
5% Total Over 239.0 (-110)
Utah Jazz Overview
  • Season Totals Trend: Utah began the season 3-7 over/under, but has since gone 11-3 (79%) over/under.
  • High Total Games: In their last 14 games with a total of 234 and higher, they are 9-1 (90%) over/under, exceeding the totals by 20.4 points per game.
  • Close Line Performance: When the Jazz are a favorite or underdog to +4, they have gone over in 4 straight games both overall and at home, covering by 29.3 points per game.
  • Home Record: Utah is 7-0 over/under at home when the line is from +3 to -3, surpassing the totals by 20.4 points per game.
  • Rest Factor: The Jazz are 5-1 over/underwith 2 or more days of rest.
Dallas Mavericks Overview
  • Early Season Trend: Dallas started the season 2-8 over/under in their first ten games.
  • Mid-Season Fluctuation: They went over in 5 of the next 7 games, followed by 5 straight unders during a shooting slump (41% shooting from November 17-24).
  • Recent Offensive Surge: Since November 28, the Mavericks are 6-1 over/under, including 3 straight overs, shooting 52.5%overall and 43.6% from three.
  • Performance with Rest: In games with at least 2 days of rest, Dallas is 2 for 2 on overs, covering by a total of 27 points.
Combined Insights for Rest and Total
  • Both Teams on 2+ Days Rest: This season, when both teams have 2+ days of rest, the games have gone 34-20 (63%) over/under.
  • High Total Performance: When the total is 235 and higher and both teams have 2+ days of rest, it's 14-4 (78%) over/under.
 

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DAVE ESSLER | NFL SIDEMON, 12/15/25 - 8:15 PM
484 PIT -3.0 (-115) DraftKings vs 483 MIAtriple-dime bet
 
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hacheman@therx.com
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Sharp bets on sides, total in Steelers-Dolphins Monday night matchup​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The Steelers have won 22 straight home games on “Monday Night Football,” and sharp bettors are banking on them to extend that streak to 23 against the Dolphins.

Pittsburgh is a consensus 3-point favorite (-116) over Miami, which has lost 13 games in a row when the temperature is less than 40 degrees at kickoff. The temperature is expected to be around 20 when the game kicks off Monday night.

Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said sharp bettors backed the Steelers -3 and on the money line (-175).

“It’s a pretty well bet game,” he said. “There’s a little more action on it than I would’ve expected.”

There was also some sharp money on the Dolphins at +3½ when Pittsburgh star pass rusher T.J. Watt was ruled out after having surgery to repair a partially collapsed lung.

“When they announced Watt was out, they took the 3½,” Boomer’s Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “I think you’ll see a little Steeler money show up (Monday). It’s cold there, and they love betting against Miami in the cold.”

The consensus total is 42½ after opening at 41½. Murray said the sharps bet on the over at the Westgate.

The Dolphins (6-7) have won five of their past six games while going 4-2 against the spread, and they’re on a 5-1 under run.

The Steelers (7-6) have a half-game lead over the Ravens (7-7) in the AFC North after beating Baltimore 27-22 last week as 5½-point road underdogs. Pittsburgh has gone over in two of its past three games, though it’s on a 4-2 under run overall.

“The ticket count still clearly favors the Steelers at close to 70 percent,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “The Dolphins historically don’t play well in these cold-weather games. We’re going to be Dolphins fans.”
 

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Tbsportsbetting
Whale
4-3 last week
(134~84)

Whale
Dolphins +3 (NFL)

Other
Raptors +6 (NBA)
Jazz/Mavericks O 240 (NBA)
Clippers/Grizzlies U 228.5 (NBA)
 

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