4.5-Star Chiefs at Chargers UNDER 53 When a team that won more than ten games the previous regular season and is facing a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings, the games tend to stay UNDER. Specifically, teams with more than 10 wins the previous season are 0-21 OU (-9.10 ppg) when they are off a road game and they are playing a divisional opponent with a better record. The SDQL text is:
DIV and 10
=20160109
This is the third active date this season and the first two stayed under by an average of two TDs.
San Diego is off a tough 26-24 loss to the Raiders in which they outrushed Oakland 146-78. This exceptional rushing performance pings a league-wide, multiseason system that reads:
surface=grass and p:L and p:RY - tA(p:RY) > 43 and p:YPRA>=4 and date>=20171109 and wins-o:wins>-4
The league is 0-25 OU on grass when they are off a loss in which they averaged more than four yards per rush and rushed the ball for at least 43 yards more than their season-to-date average and they are facing a team that is not four-plus games ahead of them in the win column. Teams in this spot are 0-6 OU THIS season.
As a team, San Diego is 0-13 OU since they signed Ekeler as an undrafted free agent in 2017 when they are off a road game in which h rushed for fewer than 25 yards. The SDQL text is:
team=Chargers and Austin Ekeler
:rushing yards<25 and p:A and season>=2017 Also, the Chargers are 0-8 OU (-9.81 ppg) when they off a road game facing a team that is averaging at least 36 passes per game.
The Chiefs are off a 35-32 loss to the Titans that was not the fault of the offense. Mahomes had 446 passing yards with 3 TDs and no INTs and the Chiefs outgained the Titans 530-to-371. The league as a whole has played to the UNDER in this spot.
Teams that are off a loss as a favorite in which they outgained their opponent are 0-17 OU (-14.29 ppg) on grass off a game vs a divisional opponent. The SDQL text is:
surface=grass and DIV and p:F and p:L and p:TY>po:TY and date>=20171001
As a team, Kansas City is 0-13 OU (-10.58 ppg) on grass off a road game in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns and 0-9 OU (-12.72 ppg) when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that is forcing an average of fewer than four punts per game.
We are on the UNDER.
MTis FORECAST: Chargers 24 CHIEFS 23
