Monday Service Play Thread 08/23/2021

[BuzzKill]

Kyle Akins

ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH | 08/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH -121
ANALYSIS: This is certainly not an elite matchup of contenders late in the season. But in this matchup of the two worst teams in the NL, Pittsburgh has a clear edge not reflected in the line as Arizona starts Humberto Mejia, who was bad in Triple-A this year and bad in the big leagues in limited action in 2020 with Miami. Arizona defeated Colorado on Sunday, 8-4. However, the Diamondbacks are 0-8 since April 23 on the road off a road game in which they scored at least six runs.

 

[BuzzKill]

Northcoast Sports

Marquee
Jax +4

 

[BuzzKill]

Totals 4 U

2021 Preseason Monday Night Football Total of the Year!!!!!
Jacksonville/New Orleans over 39 1/2

2021 Inter-League Primetime Showdown Total of the Year!!!!!
NY Yankees/Atlanta under 9 1/2

MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Arizona/Pittsburgh over 8 1/2
Chicago White Sox/Toronto under 9
Kansas City/Houston over 9
Seattle/Oakland over 8 1/2

 

[BuzzKill]

Micah Roberts

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 08/23 | 7:07 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX +101
ANALYSIS: Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah got roughed up in his last outing, giving up seven runs at Washington in a 12-6 loss. He’s at home Monday, but the poor performance could have a lingering effect. Cy Young candidate Lance Lynn is on a roll with the White Sox, winning his last five starts. He has a 2.27 ERA on the road. Take the White Sox to win.

 

[BuzzKill]

Zack Cimini

SEATTLE @ OAKLAND | 08/23 | 9:40 PM EDT
OAKLAND -130
ANALYSIS: Close losses have been the story with the Oakland A's, as they lost another game by one run Sunday against the Giants. It should be a different story Monday as Oakland has kept Marco Gonzales from pitching beyond six innings twice this season. Moreover, they were the last team to score multiple runs against Gonzales, on July 25.

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 08/23 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -111
ANALYSIS: Over Lance Lynn’s last five starts, the White Sox starter has failed to pitch beyond five innings in three. Other apparent signs of fatigue have shown as his strikeout rate has declined, along with a rise in pitches per inning. In July, he averaged 17 pitches per inning, which has rose to 21 in August. Take the Blue Jays on Monday to snap out of their recent funk.

 

[BuzzKill]

IQ Sports

C* White Sox +100

 

[BuzzKill]

Brian Bitler

J* Chicago Cubs -123 (Executive Order)

 

[BuzzKill]

Pure Lock

J* Chicago White Sox -107

 

[BuzzKill]

Jack Winningham

Colorado Rockies +113 over the Chicago Cubs, 8:05 EST

 

[BuzzKill]

Billy Coleman

C* - New York Yankees

 

[BuzzKill]

Andrew McInnis

D% Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox +100 L Lynn (RHP), A Manoah (RHP) Must Start

D% Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints Total Over 39.5 (-110)

 

[BuzzKill]

MLB Sharp Action

8:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (55-68) at Houston Astros (73-51)
Both of these non-division foes have played well as of late. Kansas City is well out of playoff contention but has gone 6-1 in their last seven games, most recently sweeping the Cubs in Chicago. Meanwhile, Houston leads the AL West by 3.5-games over 2nd place Oakland and just took two of three from Seattle at home. In tonight's series opener, the Royals start lefty David Lynch (3-3, 5.12 ERA) and the Astros send out righty ace Zack Greinke (11-3, 3.43 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a hefty -220 home favorite and Kansas City a + 200 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed Houston up from -220 to -240. Non-division home favorites are 401-250 (62%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 151-57 (73%). The Astros are 60-38 as a favorite. The Royals are 34-51 as a dog. Houston is 28-21 against lefties. Kansas City is 35-50 against righties. Houston is 39-24 at home. Kansas City is 23-37 on the road. The Astros will lean on their bats in this one. Houston is hitting .268, which ranks 1st in MLB. Kansas City is hitting .244, which ranks 12th. There looks to be a slight lean to the under here. The total is 9 with the under juiced up to -115.

9:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (67-58) at Oakland Athletics (70-55)
This a crucial series for these AL West rivals. The Athletics are currently tied with the Red Sox for the second Wild Card spot but the hard-charging Mariners are only three games behind. Both teams are looking to get back on track, as the Mariners just dropped two of three at Houston while the Athletics just dropped two of three at home to the Giants. In tonight's series opener, Seattle hands the ball to lefty Marco Gonzales (5-5, 4.10 ERA) and Oakland counters with righty Paul Blackburn (0-1, 5.06 ERA). This line opened with the Athletics listed as a short -107 home favorite and the Mariners a -103 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the A's at home laying a virtual pick'em price, steaming Oakland up from -107 to -120. Home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 329-204 (62%) this season. Short home favorites -130 or less are 220-158 (58%), producing roughly + 31 units. Oakland has mashed lefties this season, going 28-18. We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise to 9. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.

 

[BuzzKill]

NFL Sharp Action

8 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
This Monday Night game is the final game of NFL Preseason Week 2. The Jags (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) fell to Browns 23-13 in their preseason opener, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Saints (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) lost to the Ravens 17-14, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both laying the points, driving the Saints up from -3.5 to -4. Some shops even reached -4.5 before some Jags buyback brought the line back down. The total opened at 37.5 and has been steamed up to 40. If you're betting the over now, you're late to the party and getting the worst of the number, which is commonly referred to as "chasing steam." Instead, bettors could be eying a buy-low inflated under opportunity. The under is 24-8 (75%) this preseason. When the total is 37 or higher, the under is 10-2 this preseason and 185-116 (62%) since 2014. Jameis Winston is a -190 favorite (66% implied probability) to take the first snap in Week 1 for the Saints. Taysom Hill is + 140.

 

[BuzzKill]

JM Sports

Game: (431) Jacksonville Jaguars at (432) New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Aug 23 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Total Over 40.0 (-110)
D unit OVER 40 Jacksonville/ New Orleans

Game: (911) New York Yankees at (912) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Aug 23 2021 7:20 PM EDT
Play Rating: C units
Play: Atlanta Braves -109 J Montgomery (LHP), H Ynoa (RHP) Must Start
3 unit Atlanta Braves (-109) over New York Yankees (Ynoa/Montgomery) –
Matchup of 2 very hot teams, but Atlanta may be more impressive and has a little bit of a pitcher edge in this game. Ynoa has a 2.70 ERA w/ 1.02 WHIP in his 10 appearances this season, including a 3-0 record @ H (4 total ER) and a 4-0 record at night (4 total ER). The Braves offense has definitely supported Ynoa, they are 5-1 in his L6 starts including 3 straight @ H and 4 straight as a F. Atlanta is also 17-2 in the L19 games vs. LHP w/ a line < -105, they are 13-1 vs. LHP w/ ERA over 3.50 and a line under (-105), not to mention that they are 16-2 in the L18 overall, 20-4 in the L24 as a F, 10-1 vs. LHP after getting out hit and 10-4 in the FGS when coming in off a W. The issue for the Yankees is even with all these weapons they are struggling to support their pitching staff, Montgomery isn't a top tier pitcher, but also isn't one to sleep on, in the L7 games his ERA is 3.13, but he is 1-3, even holding opponents to a limited amount of runs, Montgomery is still taking the L's. The Yankees are 2-4 in Montgomery's starts as a dog, and when you put this offense up against a SP w/ an ERA under 3, NYY is 1-5 in the L6 (including 5 straight L's to RHP w/ ERA < 3.00)

 

[BuzzKill]

Tony George

D Units - #905 Chicago White Sox (-110) vs Toronto *7 EST

 

[Scottrick]

jack willingham colo rockies

 

[BuzzKill]

Tokyo Brandon

(907) Kansas City Royals at (908) Houston Astros
Game: (907) Kansas City Royals at (908) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Aug 23 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: A%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) D Lynch (LHP), Z Greinke (RHP) Must Start
The Astros are the #1 team vs LHP and the #2 team in hitting for the last 30 days. They face a lefty with a 5+ ERA today. Lynch held the Astros to 1 run in 7 innings last time out so we get an advantageous line here. Also, Greinke is not really great at home. Add to the fact that the golden rule is never lay a run line on a home team. I am bucking all of those and betting the #1 team vs lefties facing a lefty with 5+ ERA. Sinple as that make it a 1% play.

 

[BuzzKill]

Bob Balfe

8:05 PM EST
Rotation #903-904
Rockies/Cubs Over 8.5 runs
Senzatela/Hendricks
The Rockies have been on a roll and this year have hit Cubs pitching well. Kyle Hendricks has struggled this year as his home runs, hits and walks per 9 innings are up while strikeouts are down. Hendricks isn’t a power pitcher so I expect the Rockies to get runs on the board. The Cubs have really struggled losing 15 of 17, but when I see them favored by this much it makes one thing Vegas is baiting people to fade these Cubs. It’s going to be hot and humid with a light wind blowing out so we should get decent hitting weather. Antonio Senzatela gives up a lot of hits and like Hendricks is not a big strikeout pitcher. I think Chicago gets their bats back on track tonight. Take the Over.

 

[BuzzKill]

Matt Snyder

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 08/23 | 7:07 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX +101
ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays were once red hot this month, but they are now reeling, having lost seven of their last nine, including losing a series to the Tigers at home. With George Springer hurt, the offense seems to have lost its mojo. It managed just seven runs in three games against the Tigers and has scored three or fewer runs in six of the last nine games. The White Sox send Lance Lynn to the mound with his 2.26 ERA. He hasn't been getting deep into games lately, but the White Sox's top relievers (Hendriks, Kimbrel, Tepera, Kopech, etc.) are very well rested and they can shorten the game. Jays' starter Alex Manoah was roughed up last time out by a bad Nationals team, too.

 

[BuzzKill]

Charlie

saints -4
over 39.5
toronto over 8.5