Monday Night Special!!! Cleveland Wins Outright!!! FULL GAME BREAKDOWN

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

Week 6 Monday Night Special<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> Giants -8.5 at <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> Browns<o></o>
I’m taking <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> and the points here. The reason I can say that easily, because I feel that the Browns are going to win this game outright. I’m crazy right? Well let’s break down this game in great detail. First things first these 2 teams are not that far apart. What have the Giants done to garner the notion that they can lay 8.5 points on the road against a team that plays tough at home on a Monday nighter. They beat <st1:State><st1lace>Washington</st1lace></st1:State> in week 1, kudos to them, but that <st1:State><st1lace>Washington</st1lace></st1:State> team was not in sync on that night. Besides that game they beat <st1:City><st1lace>Seattle</st1lace></st1:City>, <st1:City><st1lace>St. Louis</st1lace></st1:City>, and <st1:City><st1lace>Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City>. 3 of the bottom 8 worse teams in the league. On the other hand <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> has been riddled with injuries and have had some stiff competition. Once again I stress these 2 teams are not that far apart. The Giants are in the familiar position in which they are due to have a letdown game. We have all seen it before, The Chicago-Arizona game, Dallas-Buffalo, New England-Baltimore. This game reeks of the same stench. On the other side of the ball you take a team like <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>. For the first time in a decade they finally had some legitimate optimism heading into the season. They are now healthier than ever due to a bye week and are going to be playing in a rare Monday Night game. The ENTIRE season rests on this game for them. Lose and they drop to 1-4 and most likely kill any hopes of getting into the playoffs. Win and they can ride that momentum into a playoff appearance. They will be in front of their Crowd which is going to be electric on Monday, and there are a few people who are playing for their jobs on Monday. (Crennel, Anderson)
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Now let’s get into the game.
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<st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> Giants Offense Vs. Cleveland Browns Defense<o></o>
On the offensive side of the ball the New York Giants are going to look to do much of what they’ve done all year. They are going to look to pound Brandon Jacobs and air it out with Eli Manning. 2 things that are going to help <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> out here is the fact that they are getting their leader back in Willie McGinnest. He may not be the player he once was, but he is still very valuable in the run game and his presence alone should elevate everybody elses game around him. In the passing game, there needs to be 2 major factors in stopping Eli Manning. Romeo Crennel and the defense have had 2 weeks to scheme for Eli Manning, and that is a lot of time. The Browns are going to send all sorts of blitz packages and different zone coverages in this game. You have to believe that with the 2 weeks to plan for it, they would be effective on defense. The other key is the Crowd. They need to get loud, draw some false-starts, and make it so Eli can’t audible or go into the 2 minute offense. If <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> can do all those things than they should have success in this game.
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<st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> Browns Offense Vs. <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> Giants<o></o>
Health is finally something that <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> now has on their offense. They are getting 3 major players back in this offense. These 2 offenses are similar, in the fact that <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> will be looking to pound the ball with their horse Jamal Lewis, and then air it out with Derek Anderson. As far as running the ball goes, <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> is getting back 2 major players that are going to allow for Jamal Lewis to do that, and that is the return of Eric Steinbach and Ryan Tucker. Antonio Pierce also may not play, and even if he does will be banged up, so I expect <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> to have success here. In the passing game, the Browns are getting Stallworth back, and Derek Anderson will finally have more time in the pocket now that is 2 OL are back. Now I know the talk has been about Kellen Winslow and if he’s going to play or not, I have a feeling that this may be some old Patriots tactics that Crennell is using. This game is too big of a game for him to miss. The biggest key is this. Edwards, Stallworth, Winslow will be covered by Ross, Webster, and Madison. Now they will most likely be sticking Aaron Ross on Braylon Edwards. Braylon is going to expose the height advantage and abuse Ross all day on Monday. On the other match-up Webster doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Stallworth and he’s going to get beat deep at least once. Especially if the Giants stack the box and <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> draws up a play-action. And there is nobody on the Giants roster that is going to be able to cover Winslow if he plays. So I love <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> in this spot over here.
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Special Teams<o></o>
I like both teams on the return game, as both Bradshaw and Cribbs are dangerous. I will give the advantage to <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> in the field goal game, because I don’t feel that John Carney will be able to kick the 45+ yarders and that will be a problem for <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State>.
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Wildcards<o></o>
Turnovers and Penalties. As long as these 2 things even out for both teams than I feel the Browns are going to be in a position to win.
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So all the reasons above are why I feel that the Browns are a lock to cover, and will win this game outright.
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Mac Picks: <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> +8.5<o></o>


Suggestion: Lay 3 times as much on the spead, but take the Money line as well

 

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

Games one day away but still bumping it to the TOP

 

[krk1030]

What have the Giants done to garner the notion that they can lay 8.5 points on the road against a team that plays tough at home on a Monday nighter.


13 straight road wins, a superbowl, 4-0 to start the season....

 

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

What have the Giants done to garner the notion that they can lay 8.5 points on the road against a team that plays tough at home on a Monday nighter.


13 straight road wins, a superbowl, 4-0 to start the season....

I'm sorry these 2 teams are not the same. They've lost 2 great DE's lost a TE and a LB in Kawika Mitchell.

 

[Moneyline_Monster]

Honestly I like the points, but I don't see Cleveland's defense stopping the Giants, and I'm a Cowboys fan. BOL might drop a unit on the moneyline, let's see if you're right.

 

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

Honestly I like the points, but I don't see Cleveland's defense stopping the Giants, and I'm a Cowboys fan. BOL might drop a unit on the moneyline, let's see if you're right.

Drop a Unit on it. You WONT regret it.

 

[ou_guy]

you forgot one main part of the game...coaching, and the browns have the worst in the league im thinking NYG by double digits myself...gl

 

[Gaz]

Points maybe. S/U? No way

 

[EddieMoney]

g-men...

ROLL EASY!!!!!!!!!!!!:youmad:

 

[Moneyline_Monster]

Now that I re-read Mac's thesis on the game, I have laid down 4 units +8.5 and 2 on the ML, very good reasoning on both sides of the ball, and can a game be more "must-have" for the Browns. BOL to us Mac.

 

[Mr_Mark]

its hard not to take the giants tomorrow they are playing great so far

giants -8 for me

 

[krk1030]

Cowboys and Redskins both lose. No real sense or urgency for the Giants.

 

[texansfan]

Cowboys and Redskins both lose. No real sense or urgency for the Giants.

?????

Knowing those teams lost it would seem even more urgent knowing they can put another game between them and the other teams.

 

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

Now that I re-read Mac's thesis on the game, I have laid down 4 units +8.5 and 2 on the ML, very good reasoning on both sides of the ball, and can a game be more "must-have" for the Browns. BOL to us Mac.

Glad to hear it my man.

As for Sunday, I went 5-1 this Week!!!

Brings my Record to YTD : 23-15-2

Don't Miss this Play right here!!!

 

[krk1030]

?????

Knowing those teams lost it would seem even more urgent knowing they can put another game between them and the other teams.

If teams thought like that, they would never have letdown games.

 

[spreadproof]

Your write up seems very one sided.. you also make a lot of assumptions. Most of your assumptions are the equivalent of saying that Seattle was going to give the Giants trouble last Sunday because they got their offensive weapons back.

Game Notes: With its open date coming last Sunday, Cleveland has had two weeks to reflect on its first win of ’08 and to get ready to host unbeaten New York on Monday night. For the Browns, early ’08 has been a struggle, but the win at Cincinnati in week 4 at least gave them momentum to take into the bye week. They have won two of their L3 coming out of the bye and are 18-6 ATS coming off a road game under Romeo Crennel. The Giants have picked up right where they left off in February, winning four straight games by an average margin of 19.5 PPG. They have typically played outstanding football under Tom Coughlin in October, going 13-3 ATS. This will be just New York’s second road game of the season and they are riding a well-documented 12-game road win streak (11-1 ATS).

The powerline is NY Giants -9

This is the result of Cleveland playing two teams that have similar defensive style to the Giants. In which they scored a combined 16 points..
9/14/2008 PITTSBURGH 6-10
9/21/2008 @ BALTIMORE 10-28

I agree the Giants have had some of the easiest teams to play this season but every team is made up of pros and you can't just blast through any team without some skill and effort. Just look what St. Louis did to Washington today.

Now let's look at the averages:
NY Giants, Offense (all games): 31.7 ppg
Opponents Defensive Average: 27.7 ppg
Defense (all games): 12.2
Opponents offensive avg.: 17

NYG Outscoring opponents Defense by and Avg of 4
NYG Holding opponents offense down by an avg of 4.8

Browns, Offense (all games): 11.5 ppg
Opponents Defensive Average: 18.9 ppg
Defense (all games): 19.5
Opponents offensive avg.: 21.1

Browns UNDER scoring opponents Defense by and Avg of 7.4
Browns Holding opponents offense down by an avg of 1.6

Resulting in an 8.8 point net advantage for the Giants against a 5.8 point disadvantage for Cleveland. Add 3 points for home field advantage on Cleveland. Still a theoretical line of 11.6 for the Giants. In my opinion there is at least a full touchdown edge on the Giants. Just in case of any oddball business, I bought the hook down from -7.5 to -6.5 for -130. I believe there is no way the Giants do not win by at least a full 7.

Another thing to note the Average power rating of the Giants opponents 15.8, Cleveland 21.8. In my experience a 6 point differential in opponent average power rating does not throw off the game averages by anything significant.

The Giants are 3-0 ATS versus Cleveland since 1992.
2 of those games were played in Cleveland.

Cleveland hasn't beat the Giants at home since 1972.
Cleveland hasn't won at home on Monday Night Football in 15 years.

Again I bought the full point to bring it down to -6.5 but I dought that I will need it.

In response to krk1030:
Every dog has their day but Arizona should have been favored straight up in that game, the line was designed for the public.
The St. Louis game I have to agree with you sense of urgency was the problem. On the flip side St. Louis had their own sense of urgency, they hadn't won a game yet. Cleveland on the other hand does have 1 win.

 

[vacume]

Thanks

Nice write-up.Thanks for your time & effort,to post
The Vac

 

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

Sounds good Vac.

And Spreadproof, we will see in less than 24 hours if my ASSumptions are off base or right on point.

 

[jimzorn]

clev defense is the key to a win/cover here.

if the giants have road woes anything is possible but if Clev falls behind in this game they should be toast.

clev can't score....it's as simple as that.

I see a very poor offense w/ QB issues vs. a very good one...

you've got the home dog angle though

 

[chrishansen]

Your write up seems very one sided.. you also make a lot of assumptions. Most of your assumptions are the equivalent of saying that Seattle was going to give the Giants trouble last Sunday because they got their offensive weapons back.

Game Notes: With its open date coming last Sunday, Cleveland has had two weeks to reflect on its first win of ’08 and to get ready to host unbeaten New York on Monday night. For the Browns, early ’08 has been a struggle, but the win at Cincinnati in week 4 at least gave them momentum to take into the bye week. They have won two of their L3 coming out of the bye and are 18-6 ATS coming off a road game under Romeo Crennel. The Giants have picked up right where they left off in February, winning four straight games by an average margin of 19.5 PPG. They have typically played outstanding football under Tom Coughlin in October, going 13-3 ATS. This will be just New York’s second road game of the season and they are riding a well-documented 12-game road win streak (11-1 ATS).

The powerline is NY Giants -9

This is the result of Cleveland playing two teams that have similar defensive style to the Giants. In which they scored a combined 16 points..
9/14/2008 PITTSBURGH 6-10
9/21/2008 @ BALTIMORE 10-28

I agree the Giants have had some of the easiest teams to play this season but every team is made up of pros and you can't just blast through any team without some skill and effort. Just look what St. Louis did to Washington today.

Now let's look at the averages:
NY Giants, Offense (all games): 31.7 ppg
Opponents Defensive Average: 27.7 ppg
Defense (all games): 12.2
Opponents offensive avg.: 17

NYG Outscoring opponents Defense by and Avg of 4
NYG Holding opponents offense down by an avg of 4.8

Browns, Offense (all games): 11.5 ppg
Opponents Defensive Average: 18.9 ppg
Defense (all games): 19.5
Opponents offensive avg.: 21.1

Browns UNDER scoring opponents Defense by and Avg of 7.4
Browns Holding opponents offense down by an avg of 1.6

Resulting in an 8.8 point net advantage for the Giants against a 5.8 point disadvantage for Cleveland. Add 3 points for home field advantage on Cleveland. Still a theoretical line of 11.6 for the Giants. In my opinion there is at least a full touchdown edge on the Giants. Just in case of any oddball business, I bought the hook down from -7.5 to -6.5 for -130. I believe there is no way the Giants do not win by at least a full 7.

Another thing to note the Average power rating of the Giants opponents 15.8, Cleveland 21.8. In my experience a 6 point differential in opponent average power rating does not throw off the game averages by anything significant.

The Giants are 3-0 ATS versus Cleveland since 1992.
2 of those games were played in Cleveland.

Cleveland hasn't beat the Giants at home since 1972.
Cleveland hasn't won at home on Monday Night Football in 15 years.

Again I bought the full point to bring it down to -6.5 but I dought that I will need it.

In response to krk1030:
Every dog has their day but Arizona should have been favored straight up in that game, the line was designed for the public.
The St. Louis game I have to agree with you sense of urgency was the problem. On the flip side St. Louis had their own sense of urgency, they hadn't won a game yet. Cleveland on the other hand does have 1 win.

i hate stats like this

nyg avg 31 ppg vs teams that gv up avg 27??? what does this really tell me??? that they play some shitty def????

what does any of the 3 games clev/nyg have played since 1992 tell me????

what does clev not winning a monday nite gm in 15 years tell me???? clev has not been on monday nite in 15 years!!!!

o and pitt and balt are not anywhere near the same def style as the giants, it's not even close. totaly diff styles. i cant help but point out this!!!!!!

pitt runs a 3-4 hybrid (this means they run a hidden 4-3 at times with a lb in a standing de position) and they run a ton of zone blitzes

balt runs a 3-4 (3-3-5 sometimes) and they again have tons of zone blitz pkgs

to run the def that balt and pitt run you need a great safety and speedy lb's and a good nt to shed the guards and center. basic plan to take on blocks and be a beating dummy 4 lb's to make the plays

the giants safety's are not in the same league as these teams

nyg runs a basic 4-3 one gap technique, they run zone blitzes as all teams do but not with the mass confusion as pitt and balt. the gap means they read run 1st or pass 1st and react on the snap