ok i know i said probably no plays til wednesday but this line is unexpectedly low, respond to 4 of my 5 criteriums and i will go for it. i've been asked how i rate my plays and heres the explanation. actually a short one.
early in the season my plays are based on :
1)my power ratings vs offshore line
2)schedule
3)systems i developped in last 7 years
4)line movements
5)team tendencies (trends that make some sense).
esexmple : when i rate my play 3* early in the season it means that my play is a "go" according to at least 3 of my criteriums, and as the season goes on, the plays can be rated as high as 10* since i keep adding the criter. one by one during the season. the result of this is a very small # of plays later in the season, but i also learned in the past 7-8 years that my plays get sharper and sharper as my system gets more selective.
i divide the regular season into 4 parts -
1.november
2.december - all star game
3.all star game - march
4.march - end of reg. season
as for the first part of the season, my plays are rated from 1* to 5* , never higher.
and my play tonight is a 4* play because the line movement is stil a no factor. the play for monday is nyknicks at cavs over 183½. shortly, i have it at 196½ but usually i love to bring my predicted total down by 5 pts in november as the easrly season games are not known for high scoring.so even when i do that, there is a huge gap between my number and the offshore total.last 6 times they played each other, 5-1 over and they avg 198½ in there last5. both offenses are heating up now (ny scored 97 in last 3 after scoring 77½ in first 3 of the season and the cavs improved there scoring in three consecutive games from 85 to 111). cavs defense not good at all avg over 96 on the season and they allowed 90+ in all of there games this season and knicks d allowed 102½ in last 3 after allowing 79½ in previous 3. cavs enter this contest after finally getting a win that snapped there losing streak. when they snapp at least a 4 game losing streak, they are 13-2-2 over in the next game (202) and when ny knicks lose 2 of there last 3, the following game is a high scoring game 14-3 over (200). no significant injuries or reunions so nothing there to hurt the offensive flow. i wont be surprised if this total goes down a bit tomorrow , but i stil like the over at 183½. it is a *4 play. gl pay to win.
early in the season my plays are based on :
1)my power ratings vs offshore line
2)schedule
3)systems i developped in last 7 years
4)line movements
5)team tendencies (trends that make some sense).
esexmple : when i rate my play 3* early in the season it means that my play is a "go" according to at least 3 of my criteriums, and as the season goes on, the plays can be rated as high as 10* since i keep adding the criter. one by one during the season. the result of this is a very small # of plays later in the season, but i also learned in the past 7-8 years that my plays get sharper and sharper as my system gets more selective.
i divide the regular season into 4 parts -
1.november
2.december - all star game
3.all star game - march
4.march - end of reg. season
as for the first part of the season, my plays are rated from 1* to 5* , never higher.
and my play tonight is a 4* play because the line movement is stil a no factor. the play for monday is nyknicks at cavs over 183½. shortly, i have it at 196½ but usually i love to bring my predicted total down by 5 pts in november as the easrly season games are not known for high scoring.so even when i do that, there is a huge gap between my number and the offshore total.last 6 times they played each other, 5-1 over and they avg 198½ in there last5. both offenses are heating up now (ny scored 97 in last 3 after scoring 77½ in first 3 of the season and the cavs improved there scoring in three consecutive games from 85 to 111). cavs defense not good at all avg over 96 on the season and they allowed 90+ in all of there games this season and knicks d allowed 102½ in last 3 after allowing 79½ in previous 3. cavs enter this contest after finally getting a win that snapped there losing streak. when they snapp at least a 4 game losing streak, they are 13-2-2 over in the next game (202) and when ny knicks lose 2 of there last 3, the following game is a high scoring game 14-3 over (200). no significant injuries or reunions so nothing there to hurt the offensive flow. i wont be surprised if this total goes down a bit tomorrow , but i stil like the over at 183½. it is a *4 play. gl pay to win.
