Monday Hoops - Texas?

[jaypaw]

This matchup is getting a lot of attention because TTU wrapped up OKstate without much trouble and OKState beat texas...

I'm not ready to buy into the "obvious" conclusion because I think Texas matches up much differently with TTU than they do (did) with OkState.

I'm gonna look into it some more but my initial lean is very much towards texas.



Insights welcome

 

[GoUH]

I think you've got something here. Line is asking for Tech bets, but early money moved the line from -1.5 to -1....

 

[jaypaw]

27wins-31 losses on the season
(14 for 30 ATS (1 push))
(4 for 5 buying points (buying helped once))
(7 for 15 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [-120])
(2 for 7 on the ML: wins of -260 and -235)

 

[GreenDoberman]

For what it's worth Jay,
I'm on Texas Tech, they won't lose at home and I feel they should be favored by more.

 

[jaypaw]

Dammit Doberman

I hate being on the other side of you - it seems like thats the way it always is.

I'm gonna take your advice and hold off for now till I can get more info.

I was under the impression that Tech - though they have some size, was somewhat one dimensional, and also that tomacek was still recovering from an injury.

I dont know what the injury situation on UT is but I think they do a better job of spreading it around - but again like I said, I gotta look into it more.

I know TTU has been on a tear, but didnt they just have trouble with the aggies?

Are the aggies any good this year?

I'll check in again soon.

 

[DJ6593]

Jaypaw,
TT is a young athletic team that is getting better each game. With a true freshman point guard in Jay Jackson, you might expect more mistakes than he makes.

Andre Emmett is the best scoring threat in NCAA, and therfore appears one dimensional, but they are not.

The strength of TT is how they apply their quickness on the defensive end of the court and how that translates into transitions points.

A&M has some talent and has played with teams, they just haven't figured out how to win. TT just gave Oklahoma a 20 pt whoppun that Knight wanted to administer badly due to clockgate last year. Then we had the first place showdown on deck for this monday with rival Texas. In between they had to travel to A&M for the classic sandwich game that I bet and posted as a play.

Tomacek foot is hurting. He would be a big loss to this team. He passes well and shoots the 15-20 extremely well. He will undoubtedly be missed. But this TT is very deep and talented. They are better athletes on the bench to replace Toma, but they will have to perform well. With Toma, this is an easy call to make on TT.

Last time these two played, a weaker TT team beat a TJ Ford led Texas team on a neutral court.
GL

 

[jaypaw]

Thanks for the great points...

My only comment is that Oklahoma is horrible and TTU beating them to me doesnt mean much other than maybe a confidence builder.

Even though you seem to lean tech - your points have led me to favor UT a tad more to be honest.

 

[TheGeneral+]

I'm not wagering on this game. I look for the obvious defensive pressure from Tech. If Texas gets out of the gate 1st, Knight will slow them down with ball control. You do not get 825 wins not knowing how to get a game plan against any team, but your players must execute the plan for it to work. With that said, I think the 1st half under may be a good selection because being such an important game, both team will want a feel out period which may result in some low early scoring. Could be way off base. I will watch and root on Tech.

 

[jaypaw]

825 wins? Come on - He is a good coach but dont make it sound like he did that at TTU...

True that a coach has a major influence on the outcome of a game - and true that he has been around the block, but this isnt Indiana vs Texas, nor is it Texas vs Kansas, or Texas vs Arizona.

Its Texas vs TTU, with one of TTUs big guys (Tomo) most likely limited in some way - if not totally ineffective.

I havent verified this yet and if he is fine then I will ahve trouble betting on this game at all. If he isnt then I'm gonna pull the trigger.


Either way it will be a last minute decision and I want to thank you guys for taking the time to caution me here. Thats what its all about.

GL

 

[DJ6593]

Jaypaw,

I may not be playing this game because I have been unable to verify Tomacek's status for the game. I understand your discounting the big win over Oklahoma but TT also laid a 20+ OFAW on Oklahoma State prior to the Sooner game. If I'm not mistaken, that is the same Cowboy team that just beat the Horns in Austin.

The experts have underrated this Tech team from day one (most pundits and coaches picked them to finish 7th in the B12. Vegas is having trouble adjusting the number as this team matures. That being said, I can't blame you for a play on Texas, but I will have to root for the Red Raiders.
GL

 

[jaypaw]

what is OFAW ?

If tomocek is not 100% then UT will get inside and put the ball down with confidence and may pull away without much trouble - IF they can hit free throws.

Tech has played well against some teams - and done the minimum they've had to do to be able to come into a game like this with some momentum... BUT a real breakdown shows that they maybe havent really been challenged much:

Tough win at A&M(good but could have been better)
Beat Oklahoma at home (Not impressive - Oklahoma sucks to put it bluntly)
Beat Baylor - irrelevant
Beat OkState - important, because Texas lost to OKstate.
Beat 3 Big10 Schools (Minny, Ohio State, and Iowa) irrelevant, decent competition you might say but Ohio State and Minnesota are at the bottom of the big10 pack for a reason.

Prior to the big 10 games TTU played 7 pee wee teams, Beat Utah by 1, and also beat New Mexico. During that stretch they lost to Georgia Tech by 20, and SOUTHERN METHODIST.

In other words Georgia Tech, their one test of the season, they lost by 20. In other words losses to SouthernMethodistU and a struggle with A&M does not translate into an impressive track record.


Now I'll be fair and do the same review of Texas:

-They also played (and beat) 7 pee wee teams, beat Nebraska(not by much) and Baylor.
-They beat Wake by 13(very good), Providence by 2(good), and Missouri by 6 at Missouri(very good).
-They lost to Arizona by 8(not bad), Duke by almost 30(not good, but understandable), and OkState by 5(very bad).

The questions I want answered are these:

Why did Texas struggle with Nebraska, Providence, and OkState?
Why did TTU struggle with Southern Methodist, and Texas A&M?
Would/could Southern Methodist or Texas A&M beat Nebraska, Providence, or OkState?
What was it that TTU did to beat OKState and if TTU does this to UT will UT also be succeptible?
Will Tomocheck play? If so will he be effective? For how long?

 

[DJ6593]

Jaypaw,
I agree that TT needs a healthy Toma to handle Texas. Horns have a lot of experienced big men. This is the reason I will not play this game.

Why did Texas struggle with Nebraska, Providence, and OkState?
Why did TTU struggle with Southern Methodist, and Texas A&M?
Would/could Southern Methodist or Texas A&M beat Nebraska, Providence, or OkState?
What was it that TTU did to beat OKState and if TTU does this to UT will UT also be succeptible?
Will Tomocheck play? If so will he be effective? For how long?

Texas has underperformed so far this year.
All ready stated the case why A&M was tough, SMU can beat you if you are not ready to play and let
them get off their shots. SMU beat Purdue (big ten leader) AT PURDUE. TT was young and not
ready to play SMU
A&M lost to tt by 2, lost to Kansas by 6, lost to Mizz by 5 at Mizz (Texas had to go ovetime to
beat Mizzou) A&M is playing well, just not winning.
Played excellent D and executed their offense. Texas and every team could lose to TT if they
execute. TT has talent! albeit young.
Toma? $64 question in my book. I haven't been able to verify his status yet.
GL

 

[DJ6593]

Jaypaw

Old Fashioned Ass Whippen (OFAW)

 

[jaypaw]

Did some more research:

TTU vs OKState (TTU WIN)
the Emmett show - 32 pts
Tomaszek had 9pts 6 boards
**** had 18 pts
team held okstate to 34% FGpercentage
Note - OKState out rebounded TTU by 10 and still lost.

TTU vs SMU (TTU LOSS)
Emmett 28pts
TTU took 17 3pters, made 2
TTU shot 50% from the FT line
Dora had 8 pts (not Dora the Explorer)
tomo had only 4 pts and 4 boards

UT vs OKState (OKState win by 5)
OKState 37Boards
Texas 28Boards
Texas 10-20 from the FT line (50%)
OKState16-22 from the FT line (73%)


All this still leads me to think Tomo will be the difference maker.

Does anyone know where else we can get info on this?

 

[jaypaw]

Decision time

I'm gona wuss out and buy the 3 points.

heres my reasoning - tear it apart if you must:

- Logic says Tomo can't be 100%, even if he plays and is a lot better, he still wont be 100% and therefore it will be impossible for him to be 100% effective.

- I am confident enough in Texas to believe they will win or lose by no more than a couple: They beat providence at providence who has now gone on to blow out (sort of ) uconn, they hung with zona for the most part, and they have faced much tougher competition than TTU, and TTU hasnt faced many teams of the caliber of texas.


+5 at -170 is a tough bet to swallow but IMO it would be a lot tougher to swallow losing or pushing a Texas +2 wager by one or two points.

This way if they lose by 6 I know that I was just flat out wrong, and a loss is a loss.


People have asked me a lot lately why I would bother buying points under any circumstances and this is my answer to them:

 

[jaypaw]

Texas +5 (bought 3 to -170)

 

[GreenDoberman]

Jaypaw,
Thanks for the compliment. I'm not wishing you ill will for taking the other side, I'm flattered that you like to be on the other side.
But keep in mind that I lose a good 40% of my games, too.
If you truly like it because of your handicapping reasoning, stick with it and don't let me talk you out of it.

 

[DJ6593]

GL Jaypaw, I hope Texas loses by no more than 4!

 

[Co-Captain]

jaypaw, so going with the Longhorns. I hope you dont think that whats his face is out. He is going to play today. Anyways, you can go against my 4 unit play as it is like one notch above my reg plays. But your going against Actions Triple Play. Kodiacks Top Play. Now their selection is alot higher rated then mine is. Just wanted to clearify that , because you mentioned that I was on them heavy.