Monday Bowls

[croaker]

1. Florida vs Iowa - Pass

Two evenly matched teams, I like Florida as they are slightly better in nearly all parameters and win against LSU best indicator and I like the under.

But I don't like either option enough to play it. Any advice here would be appreciated, any local info or obscure stats may help.

2. Wisconsin -8.5 vs Western Michigan 1 unit

Badgers should be able to put on a lot of points on the Broncos defense and stop the run. This will make it hard for the Broncos to set up the pass and throw the ball to their own receivers.

Their QB struggled against Ohio [not OSU] in the MAC championship game with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. He may find the Badgers defense a little more challenging.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are calls to invoke some sort of mercy rule in the 3rd quarter.

I'd like the Badgers at -20.

3. Penn State +7.5 over USC [neutral field lol] 1 unit

Trojans are getting a lot of love. They did beat Washington and ........

Penn State look solid and have had some tough battles against good opposition. IMO they deserved to be in playoff over OSU and Washington. This is their chance to show they are back.


4. Auburn +2.5 over Oklahoma 1 unit

Will follow the smart money here, RLM, sharp side, better stats etc. Oklahoma has higher playoff committee ranking, and better win loss record so more attractive to joe public, nuff said.

The Sooners did beat the Cowboys who won their bowl game impressively against the Buffaloes. And Auburn plays in the currently very weak SEC conference according to current urban myth [heard this so often from the talking heads]. So I can see how you can make a nice story to support Oklahoma, but I don't buy it.

I would take money line but every time I have taken ML the team loses but still covers. But if I get some wins in the earlier games I may add and if I don't I may chase my losses. But wont commit right now.

I will probably load up closer to game time, I really like Auburn in this spot.


BOL

 

[fballgenius]

Croaker, you're new around here, but you seem to have some fball smarts.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today.....

 

[croaker]

TY for support guys.

Posting here has really helped me become more disciplined with my betting.

Anyway

Adding 2H Badgers -4.5 +100 1 unit

WMU have put up tougher fight than I expected but I don't see them hanging around for much longer.

Zebras seem to be on the under.

 

[croaker]

Starting my chase early.

Close but no cigar with Badgers, didn't like play calling from either team looked like friendly exhibition game. IMO teams should play to win not to play not to lose.

Auburn ML +105 1 unit

 

[croaker]

Given up on Auburn backup QB

Taken Oklahoma -11.5 for 1 unit, don't like doing this but seems sensible

 

[fballgenius]

01-02-2017, 10:17 PM

Originally Posted by croaker
I'm pretty sure Vegas use Harvard grads to set their lines. They are pretty smart cookies and their lines are usually pretty good.



My point exactly, croaker. Oklahoma -2 must be an overlay.​

 

[croaker]

A pretty suckfull day.

Auburn QB gets hurt, no comment re Wisconsin but very close to good result, and got cover on Penn State.

No regrets except maybe should have taken more on Oklahoma at -11.5 when they were leading by 8 in the 3rd quarter. Was taken down as soon as I placed my bet. I could have got -14.5 but was not onto it fast enough. The Sooners scored and value disappeared.

Wnded up
1/3 for - 2.2 units

Onto playoffs and Alabama game.

 

[croaker]

01-02-2017, 10:17 PM

Originally Posted by croaker
I'm pretty sure Vegas use Harvard grads to set their lines. They are pretty smart cookies and their lines are usually pretty good.



My point exactly, croaker. Oklahoma -2 must be an overlay.​

Thanks for the comment, I think I understand what you mean. But not sure if entirely correct.

Vegas sets the opening lines but the market determines the price after that. I also read somewhere that Vegas test their lines before releasing them to public.

Price movement gives some information about the the odds. If you buy into the idea that the bigger players have better information to make their decisions the price movement for this game [ie RLM] indicated that the "true" odds were likely to be more in favor of Auburn than indicated by the Vegas opening lines.

Doesn't mean you necessarily get the result though.

I liked Auburn regardless and would have preferred to get +5 than +1.5 but I still liked them at that. If you liked the Sooners -1.5 was way better than -5. Would have been nice to see the game play out with a healthy Auburn QB.