MONDAY BET O THE DAY

[OccamsRazor]

RECORD YTD 47-30 (.610)
SIDES 32-20 (.615)
TOTALS 15-10 (.600)

Denver won here last night as the West vs East went 2-2 ATS.

I had posted yesterday an article detailing that the Western's conference domination SU over the East in the NBA was also being reflected ATS. Tonights UTAH/Detroit game provides an opportunity to take advantage of the best angle in the EAST/WEST rivalry.

"NBA Inter-Conference Home Dog, 2000 - On
WEST: 61-42-2, 59.2%

Western Conference Home Dogs are +19 games to the good vs. the East over the last three-plus seasons, a 59% success rate better than any of the above situations over the last three-plus seasons!"

I want to point out that this is NOT a technical play, rather the WEST dominance is a fundamental fact being reflected in the ATS standings.

Utah finds itself at home tonight rested after having played 9 of 13 games in FEB on the ROAD and their SU and ATS record reflects that as they cooled off considerably. Utah needs a win at home as they have been faltering in that position lately and desperatly need an infusion of confidence.

Detroit comes in on a backtoback off a win vs Western foe Clippers. Can Detroit make it 2 in a row ATS against the Western conference as a road favorite? Probability backs UTAH.

UTAH+2

Home Cooking Western Style


UTAH can tie MIAMI as the league leader in bringing home the cash with a win tonight.

Want to point out that this game is not any different than any other game given out here. All games are rated the same. Use sound money management, avoid plunging on any one particular game and we'll meet at the end of this marathon high fiving each other.

 

[jcambert]

Occam, do you cap any other sports?

JP

 

[OccamsRazor]

Yes Jp I do. Sorry that the NBA is not enough for you. You remind me of the joke: A down on his luck gambler gets the call of his life from his best friend. "Jimmy, I know that you need a winner and I have a lock for you tonight. My brother is refereeing a football game tonight. My nephew is the QB and my Uncle is the coach. The fix is in. Bet as much money as you want to win!!!. Jimmy replies: "Can you give me another side, I want to tease it."

All kidding aside Jp since I started posting here at the RX my records for NBA, Football, Baseball and Boxing is .55% sides 51% totals overall 53.5%. Obviously, I need to reevaluate my totals strategy. I did some tweeking and so far so good in NBA totals. I'll post everything broken down in the Capping forum at the end of the NBA season. There are some interesting Nuggets.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Went over to Wagerline to check on their consensus haven't been there in a while. One of the most consistant events that I have seen come through is the going AGAINST the consensus on Wagerline. I'm pleased to see that currently 72% of the bettors like Detroit, a great predictor of good things in store for UTAH.

 

[jaygordo]

Occam- I am glad I checked on you today my friend. I like the Jazz tonite too. THey pull off the road upset vs. kings on Sat. and they should have some confidence. The really impressive win however was winning the back to backs last week vs. Seattle. Those are the wins I look at to see a motivated team playing at home tonight. On paper the Pistons should win but I like your reasons. Going with the home team. GL. jaygordo

 

[kayaman]

Occam, I was just wondering if this was more of a system play based on the information on yesterday, or is this your best play tonight? Either way I like your plays and may take it.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Kaya: I like this play as a stand alone fundamental play. A rested Utah vs a Detroit team playing on a backtoback and 3rd game on 4 days. The fact that the more dominant conference, the West is getting points tonight at home just adds more spice to the home cooking. Remember that the home field advantage besides not having to travel, includes the refereeing as most calls will go the home teams way. You saw what the refs did yesterday in Denver to rectify a blown home call in a previous game. Calls against Denver yesterday, 11. Calls against NY 34.

 

[thetexaskid]

good luck-on this with ya

 

[kayaman]

Alright, OC, thanks. Feel better about the play now.

Just off the record, would you consider Detroit, with the acquisition of Rasheed more of a western conf team now?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Kaya: No. Just like a wouldn't consider the Spurs a Eastern style team cause Duncan is gone. East and West play different styles of ball. One player does not affect team style. Good Luck to us tonight. Gotta run be back early this a.m.

 

[kayaman]

ok, enjoy the evening.

Thanks for the pick and answering my questions. Was a little iffy on the play but you convinced me and we both came out winners.

[This message was edited by kayaman on March 01, 2004 at 11:32 PM.]

 

[ESPNTED]

Hi OccamsRazor,

Nice call on the Utah game tonite!!
U are the man OccamsRazor! Keep the winning picks coming my man. You made a beliver out of me. I look forward to your picks before I call the man everyday. I will tear his pocket open and take his money with your help of course.

Thanks for your help...ESPN TED

 

[boltgirl]

damn your good occamsrazor.been watching ya.keep it up.

~rg

 

[OccamsRazor]

Game played to form as Detroit faded in the 4th. Their 3rd game in 4 days and a backtoback. Utah ties for the league lead in bringing home the money. Utes play excellent team ball. Great system that Sloan has. Players get hurt or new ones come in via trade and Sloan plugs them into his system.

Congrats to those on UTAH tonight.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Is as if the league decided to have an inconsistent team day today TUESDAY and invited the most offending culprits: Seattle, Clippers and Golden State. I won't be able to attend the festivities. PASS. The rest of the card is full of injured ???teams and the money burning Lakers who have people clamoring to get in on the second half bandwagon.

Back at em on Wednesday. Good Luck to those that are going to get involved today... you'll need it.

 

[kayaman]

Occam, was just wondering. When Miami line comes out, and if they are favored by a few, would you reconsider your stand?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Wade is out and Carter might be back in. My raw power ratings have Miami by 4 before the injuries and add ons. Miami is the number 1 team in the league in terms of cash making, so we might see a big adjustment in the line. Then again Carter is expected back. Too much gambling for my me, I'll pass. I'd lean on Miami though.

 

[kayaman]

Alright, thanks. I heard Jalen Rose and Alvin Williams were on the injured list, though. I thought Carter was expected to be out 2-4 weeks?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Carter is expected to be activated today. Nothing as of yet 10:30 pacific. Thus no line, yet.

 

[kayaman]

Thanks for your patience. I feel your the top capper in here because you have the ability to post the best possible play. That in my opinion is hard because on some days there can be three or four top notch plays. It's even harder to sit back and not play on any given night. This is why I've been asking you for your advice so much latley.

If you have a chance, can you tell me how you feel about Golden State. I noticed that they are 8-1 this season as a home dog. Seeing as how it falls under the East vs. West category also makes it a possible play for me. Thanks for your input.

by the way, miami is -3.5

[This message was edited by kayaman on March 02, 2004 at 06:07 PM.]