Monday Bet O The Day 4/27

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A Separate Reality
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
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PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 4-5
SIDES 0-4
TOTALS 4-1


Won with the Clev/Det UNDER yesterday.

Road Dogs have been cashing tickets. Atlanta can't afford to go 1-3. The biggest motivator in sports is humiliation.Raw Power Ratings almost evenly matched, any points is a gift. Public on MIAMI at 70%

Atlanta+5(<)<

From Bogdanovich's Think Like A Sharp series: [My adds]

  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps typically hope that the home team wins that third game straight up so they can come back strong on the road underdog (and the pre-series favorite) in the fourth game.[Atlanta and Denver on Monday meet the criteria] In the minds of many sharps I talk to, that's arguably the best situation of an entire NBA playoff series. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think about all the positives that line up in that scenario...you've got the best team (at least the pre-series favorite)...getting points...bouncing back off a loss...facing the inferior team...in a letdown spot...in front of a crowd that wore itself out cheering in Game Three![/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What other scenario is that powerful in a series? Normally the dog you're taking is the inferior team. In Game Four of a typical matchup, it's the pre-series favorite. And, you've got them in an ideal situation emotionally. This is where the big money comes out. If sharps are betting Game Three...they're doing it conservatively. They really hit Game Four hard.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now, if the road team scores an upset in that third game, the sharps will consider the home favorite in Game Four only if they're getting an affordable price. [/FONT]

Sharps will be on Atlanta and Denver. Public will be on Miami and NO.

I don't like Denver's defensive softness, so I'm staying away.<!-- / message -->


 

A Separate Reality
Joined
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Messages
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Wow! Denver is kicking ass early. Damn talked myself out of the better team plus points. Have to learn to trust probabilities on the Sides, like I do on the Totals.
 

A Separate Reality
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
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Sweet my first side.
:toast: Congrats to Atlanta backers

I like Bogdonovich's think like a Sharp series. Its well reasoned. Sharps play objective probabilites and leave the opinions and predictions to the public masses.



 

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