Monday 9/21/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
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[superbeets]

Championship TODAY 19:45

Derby

v

Burnley

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1					More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT DERBY	RECENT FORM
HDHDADHLAWAW​ Most recent​	0 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4	HDALHWAWHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Derby and Burnley have drawn six Championship matches between them

EXPERT VERDICT: Derby got their first win on the board last weekend when they beat Preston and followed that with a 1-0 success at Reading on Tuesday. However, the Rams have still drawn four Championship matches and won't find it easy against in-form Burnley.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Dean Whitestone STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Portuguese Liga TODAY 21:00

Sporting Lisbon

v

Nacional

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SPORTING LISBON	RECENT FORM
HWHDALAWAWHL​ Most recent​	2 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 1	AWHWALHWALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Sporting have scored in their last 18 home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Sporting are unbeaten in their last 13 matches against Nacional, who are terrible travellers. In Madeira they are superb – no defeats in their last 11 league games at home – but on the mainland they’ve won only one of their last ten. Jorge Jesus’ rebuilt Sporting have started their Primeira campaign in style and can win this well.

RECOMMENDATION: Sporting-Sporting double result
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis

When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, September 21, 2015
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are hoping their second matchup with an AFC East foe goes better than the first. Playing at home should provide an added lift for the Colts, who will try to rebound from a season-opening drubbing in Buffalo when they host the New York Jets on Monday night.

Touted as one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, Indianapolis fell behind by 17 points at halftime and never recovered in a 27-14 loss to the Bills. "They beat us pretty bad," Luck said. "You don't let one game necessarily define you, but that doesn't make it any easier of a pill to swallow." The Jets turned in an impressive performance in Todd Bowles' debut as a head coach, pulling away in the second half for a decisive 31-10 victory over the Cleveland Browns. New York has won the past two meetings, including a 35-9 romp in October 2012 in Luck's fifth career game.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Colts -7. O/U: 46.5

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0): New York amassed 154 yards on the ground against Cleveland but there are injury concerns over Chris Ivory (groin), who was limited in practice for a second straight day Friday after rushing for 91 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Week 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, elevated to starter when Geno Smith had his jaw broken in the preseason, threw for 179 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while Brandon Marshall had six catches for 62 yards and a score in his Jets debut. New York's defense forced five fumbles and had three sacks but figures to receive a much more stern test from Luck than Johnny Manziel.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-1): Luck and Indianapolis' offense did next to nothing for nearly three quarters a week ago and could be without top wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has not practiced this week after suffering a bruised knee that was thought to be much more severe. A pair of veteran newcomers both had quiet debuts with the Colts - Andre Johnson had four catches for 24 yards and running back Frank Gore was limited to 31 yards on 10 carries as Indy managed only 64 yards rushing. The Colts have issues on the other side of the ball with starting cornerback Greg Toler to miss a second straight week while his backup, Darius Butler (hip), did not practice Friday.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Luck needs four TD passes to surpass Peyton Manning (91) for the most in history through his first 50 games.

2. Marshall is 167 yards shy of reaching 10,000 for his career.

3. Colts K Adam Vinatieri needs five points to move past Jason Hanson (2,150) for the third-highest total in history.

PREDICTION: Colts 27, Jets 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Monday, September 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/21/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL

NY Jets @ Indianapolis

Game 289-290
September 21, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
132.109
Indianapolis
136.277
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
47
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+7); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)-- Jets took advantage of Browns' lousy QB situation last week, getting five turnovers in 31-10 win, but over last three years, Indy is 6-0-1 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite. Colts are 10-7-1 as home favorites since '12, but covered only one of last five as a favorite in home opener. Jets won three of last four series games; two of four were playoff games; they're 3-2 in last five visits here. Since 2011, Jets are 9-14-2 as road underdogs, 2-11-2 outside the AFC East. Last five years, under is 24-16 in Colt home games. Not sure why Indy is letting Pagano coach as free agent, but it ain't helping- they had a -3 turnover ratio last week, lost to a QB making his first NFL start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MNF - Jets at Colts
By Kevin Rogers

The Colts put together one of the most disappointing efforts in Week 1, while the Jets surprised many people by cruising past the Browns by 21 points. Will a return to Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday night turn things around for the defending AFC South champions or will New York fly to a 2-0 start?

Indianapolis fell behind Buffalo, 24-0 and never recovered in a 27-14 defeat, as Andrew Luck’s opening day record dropped to 1-3. Luck connected on a pair of late touchdowns and threw for 243 yards, but the running game never got off the ground with just 64 yards rushing. T.Y. Hilton hauled in a team-high 88 yards for the Colts, but is listed as questionable for Monday’s game after suffering a bruised knee in the fourth quarter at Buffalo.

The Jets crushed the Browns, 31-10 to easily cash as 3½-point home favorites, as Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two touchdown passes in his New York debut. Fitzpatrick spread the ball around as four receivers caught at least two passes, while Brandon Marshall picked up 62 yards and a touchdown in his first game in a Jets’ uniform. The contest finished ‘over’ the total of 39½, as the final touchdown came with 10:38 remaining.

The Colts and Jets are meeting up for the first time since Luck’s rookie season of 2012, when New York dominated Indianapolis, 35-9 at Met Life Stadium. The Jets intercepted Luck twice, while rushing for 252 yards on Indianapolis, who was held out of the end zone. For the exception of Luck, many of the top offensive players in that game are no longer on either of these teams, as Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow combined to throw for 105 yards. New York is making its first trip to Indianapolis since the 2010 playoffs, when the Jets escaped past the Colts, 17-16 as one-point underdogs in the Wild Card round.

Since 2012, the Colts have compiled a solid 14-5 SU and 11-6-2 ATS record as a home favorite, including a 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS mark last season. Indianapolis failed to cover its home opener of 2014, falling on a last-minute field goal to Philadelphia (also on Monday night), 30-27 as three-point favorites. All three home openers have been decided by four points or less with Luck under center, including a 21-17 victory over Oakland in 2013 as 11-point ‘chalk.’

The Jets lost their first six road games last season before December victories at Tennessee and Miami. New York is riding a four-game skid in away openers since 2011, but the last two defeats at New England and Green Bay were decided by seven points or less. In the last three seasons, the Jets have put together a 5-2-2 ATS record as a road underdog of seven points or more, while winning just three times, which includes a Monday night triumph at Atlanta in 2013.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the underdogs may be worth a look on Monday, “While Fitzpatrick is not the long term answer for the Jets, he is very familiar with Chan Gailey’s offense and had a steady performance in Week 1 against a good Cleveland defense, aided by a strong running game for New York behind Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. Run defense may again be an area of weakness for the Colts as the Bills rushed for 147 yards last week, but the Colts have been a far better performer on both sides of the ball at home in recent years.”

Nelson points out that even a loss for Indianapolis isn’t a season-killer, “For the Colts, an 0-2 start might sound devastating, but the division does not appear to be one that will require a great record to win as Indianapolis rattled off five straight wins to take command of the AFC South last season after losing the first two games.”

Luck is playing in his fourth Monday night game of his career, posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record, with the lone victory coming over the Giants as a three-point road favorite last season. The Jets have slumped to a 1-4 SU record in their last five Monday night contests since 2012, but have covered three times in the underdog role.

The underdog-‘under’ combination came through in both Monday night games in Week 1 with the Falcons and 49ers cashing at home. The ‘over’ hit in 12 of 18 Monday contests last season, while the ‘over’ is 2-3 in five primetime games so far in 2015.

The Colts are currently seven-point home favorites at most sports books, while the total is hovering between 46½ and 47. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Braves @ Mets
Miller is winless in his last 22 starts (0-6, 6.62 last six; over 4-1 last five).

Niese is 1-1, 9.12 in his last five starts (over 6-0 last six).

Braves lost four games with the Mets (over 7-3 last 10); Atlanta won its last three games, all by 2-1 scores- their last four games stayed under. Mets lost four of last five games; three of their last four stayed under. .

Brewers @ Cubs
Peralta is 0-1, 5.25 in his last three starts (over 5-1 last six).

Hammel is 1-1, 6.41 in his last four starts (over 5-1 last six).

Brewers lost their last seven games with the Cubs (under 5-2-1 in last eight). Milwaukee lost eight of last nine gams (over 8-2 last 10). Cubs won five of last six games (over 7-3 last ten). .

Reds @ Cardinals
Lamb is 1-3, 5.35 in his seven MLB starts (over 5-2).

Garcia is 1-1, 8.44 in his last two starts (over 4-1 last five).

Reds won six of last nine games with St Louis (under 8-2 last ten); Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games (over 6-1). Cardinals won five of their last seven games; four of their last five games went over.

Pirates @ Rockies
Burnett is 0-2, 7.97 in his last four starts (over 5-1 last six).

Gray is 0-1, 4.19 in his last four starts (over 5-3 in his MLB starts).

Pittsburgh won six of last nine games with Colorado (under 7-2-1 in last ten). Pirates are 6-4 in last ten games; four of last six stayed under. Rockies are 6-4 in last ten games, with four of last five going over the total.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Chacin is 0-1, 3.44 in three starts this year (over 1-1-1).

Anderson is 2-0, 3.86 in his last four starts (over 5-2 last seven).

Arizona lost eight of last ten games with Los Angeles; five of last seven in series went over. D'backs are 3-5 in last eight games; their last four all stayed under the total. Dodgers lost three of last five (under 5-2 last seven). .

American League
White Sox @ Tigers
Johnson is 2-0, 3.71 in three starts this year (over 2-0-1). Samardzija is 1-8, 9.24 in his last nine starts (over 9-1 last ten).

Wolf is 0-3, 6.84 in five starts this year (over 2-2-1). Ryan is 0-2, 7.56 in his last four starts (over 3-1)- this is his first start since July 7.

White Sox lost four of last five games with Detroit (over 5-0); Chicago lost three of last four games (under 5-1-1 last seven). Tigers won four of their last five games (over 7-1-1 in their last nine games). .

Bronx @ Blue Jays
Warren is 1-1, 3.97 in his last four starts (under 6-3 last nine).

Price is 3-0, 1.89 in his last three starts (over 4-2 last six).

Bronx lost four of last five games with Toronto; three of last four series tilts went over total. New York won five of last seven games (under 5-2). Toronto is 3-4 in its last seven games (under 5-2).

Rays @ Red Sox
Archer is 0-2, 5.19 in his last three starts (over 4-1 last five).

Rodriguez is 2-1, 2.08 in his last three starts (under 3-0).

Rays lost five of last seven games with Boston (over 5-2); Tampa Bay lost six of last nine games overall (under 5-3 last eight). Red Sox won three of last four (over is 6-4 in their last ten games).

Angels @ Astros
Weaver is 1-1, 3.24 in his last three starts (under 5-2 last seven).

Keuchel is 0-2, 10.12 in his last two starts (over 4-1 in last five); he is 4-0, 2.31 in his last five home starts.

Angels are 3-5 in last eight games with Astros; home side won eight of last 10 series games, under is 3-0-1 in last four. Halos won three of last four games (under 5-3-2 in last ten). Houston won four of last six home games; four of their last six games overall went over the total. .

Interleague
Orioles @ Nationals
Jimenez is 2-0, 4.58 in his last three starts (over 5-2 last seven).

Gonzalez is 2-0, 1.47 in his last three starts (over 8-0-1 last nine).

Baltimore won six of last nine games with Washington; four of last six series games went under total. Orioles are 2-3 in last five games (over 4-2 last six). Washington has 7-1 in last eight games, with four of last five going over total. .

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Atl-NY-- Miller 10-20 (3-18 last 21); Niese 13-15
Mil-Chi-- Peralta 9-10; Hammel 13-15
Cin-StL-- Lamb 2-5; Garcia 11-6 (8-1 last 9)
Pitt-Col-- Burnett 12-11 (0-4 last 4); Gray 1-7
Az-LA-- Chacin 1-2; Anderson 15-13

Chi-Det-- Johnson 2-1 Samardzija 12-18 (1-8 last 9); Wolf 2-3 Ryan 1-4
NY-Tor-- Warren 9-6; Price 22-8/7-2
TB-Bos-- Archer 17-14; Rodriguez 11-8
LA-Hst-- Weaver 10-13; Keuchel 20-10

Balt-Wsh-- Jimenez 16-13; Gonzalez 15-13

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Atl-NY-- Miller 6-30; Niese 8-28
Mil-Chi-- Peralta 6-19; Hammel 12-28
Cin-StL-- Lamb 3-7; Garcia 3-17
Pitt-Col-- Burnett 6-23; Gray 5-8
Az-LA-- Chacin 0-3; Anderson 9-28

Chi-Det-- Johnson 0-3 Samardzija 15-30; Wolf 2-5 Ryan 1-5
NY-Tor-- Warren 5-15; Price 7-30
TB-Bos-- Archer 7-31; Rodriguez 5-19
LA-Hst-- Weaver 7-23; Keuchel 5-30

Balt-Wsh-- Jimenez 8-29; Gonzalez 2-28

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 2 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Among the vast array of visuals available in Week 1, we’ve found out J.J. Watt is still great even though his team isn’t, Tony Romo operates behind the best offensive line in football and Aaron Rodgers can make you look like an elite receiver with his ball placement. Let’s look ahead to Week 2:

Monday, Sept. 21

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis: Colts QB Andrew Luck probably won’t have to deal with injured corner Antonio Cromartie (ACL sprain), but might not have top target T.Y. Hilton (foot) against a Darrelle Revis-led secondary that helped feast on Manziel in a successful opener. The Colts struggled mightily on both sides of the ball in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo, so they’re under immediate pressure to perform on the Monday night stage. Luck is just 1-2 in Monday night games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets travel to Indy

NEW YORK JETS (1-0) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-1)

Line: Indianapolis -7, Total: 47

New Jets head coach Todd Bowles looks to improve to 2-0 on Monday night when his squad visits Andrew Luck and a Colts team looking to rebound from a Week 1 drubbing at the hands of the Bills.

Contrary to public opinion, the Jets defense has been just as awful as the offense in the previous four years. New York finished ranked 19th or worse in scoring defense every year since 2011 including being in the bottom four in turnover margin each of the past three. However, things may be on the up-and-up as Bowles’ unit forced a league-high five turnovers in the season-opening, 31-10 trouncing of the Browns.

Indy QB Andrew Luck was not himself in Week 1, completing just 53% of his throws while serving up a pair of interceptions in a 27-14 defeat in Buffalo. He tipped his cap to Rex Ryan’s defense and he’s moving on, but unfortunately he’s moving on without star WR T.Y. Hilton (knee) for the foreseeable future. But the numbers say Luck will bounce back under the Monday lights. In his career, the Colts are 9-2 SU the week after Luck throws multiple interceptions including the last four times it happened last season. He is also 19-6 ATS (including postseason) in his career in the comforts of Lucas Oil Stadium while completing 2% more of his throws and throwing nine fewer picks overall.

Indy holds a 9-5 SU mark at home against the Jets since 1992, but New York won the last meeting in Luck’s rookie year of 2012, by a 35-9 score. In the past two seasons, the Colts are 17-2 SU when amassing 100+ yards on the ground. Since 2013, Indy has proven more than capable of bouncing back, going 6-0 ATS when losing by 10+ points.

The Jets defense will be missing a handful of key contributors against last season’s 6th-ranked scoring offense on Monday night. CB Antonio Cromartie is doubtful with knee issues, 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year DT Sheldon Richardson is suspended three more games, while CB Dee Milliner, S Antonio Allen, and DT Kevin Vickerson are all on IR. The Colts defense could also be thin with LB Robert Mathis (Achilles) and CBs Greg Toler (neck) and D'Joun Smith (knee) all questionable.

The last time a Todd Bowles-led defense prepared to play Luck was a 2013 drubbing in the desert, won 40-11 by the Cardinals. What his defensive unit did to that Colts offense was plenty impressive. Indy was limited to just 55 offensive plays, 159 passing yards, 5-of-13 third down conversions and more penalty yards (89) than rushing yards (80).

The Jets won’t need to look hard to find a winning formula against Luck, just last week their former head coach Rex Ryan and his team held the star quarterback in check. Buffalo ran the ball for nearly 150 yards while not turning the ball over and keeping its quarterback off the turf for the entire game. The Jets have the ability to duplicate that effort, as RBs Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell combined for 153 rushing yards and a pair of scores while QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was an efficient 15-of-24 with two touchdowns and an interception. Fitzpatrick is known for making quick reads and getting the ball out, so look for WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to have big games inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

When the Jets offense has been able to accumulate 300-to-350 total yards, they’re 6-3 ATS in the past three years. The Jets forced and recovered four fumbles, intercepted backup Johnny Manziel after knocking out starter Josh McCown, and sacked Browns’ quarterbacks three times. Over the past three years, New York is 3-1 ATS when forcing two turnovers and is 7-2 when forcing and committing the same number of miscues.

Since coming into the league, T.Y. Hilton has steadily ascended to the class of the elite pass catchers in the game. As a rookie, Hilton finished 30th in receiving yards followed by 18th in 2013 and 6th in the NFL last year with 1,345 yards. Good thing Indy picked up veteran WR Andre Johnson from Houston. Johnson, like most Colts, struggled in the season opener, hauling in just four of his 10 targets for 24 yards. Look for young WRs Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett to step up and provide Luck with some downfield options in Hilton’s absence. One concern for Colts fans should be their QB's last four regular season performances. Since Week 15 of last season, Luck is completing just 57% of his throws with six touchdown passes and five interceptions while going 2-2. Indy is also just 2-5 SU since 2013 when Luck throws multiple picks, which he did in his only career game against the Jets.

A little help from the running game wouldn’t hurt either, as the team only totaled 64 rushing yards on 17 carries including just 31 yards from top RB Frank Gore, who is questionable for Monday due to an injured calf.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall

Monday, Sept. 21

N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Colts 29-18-2 vs. spread in reg. season since Luck (and Pagano) arrived in 2012. Also 8-2-1 last 11 as Lucas Oil Stadium chalk and 8-1-1 vs. line since 2013 off SU loss. Jets slumped as road dog in Rexy's final years, just 9-15-1 last 25 reg. season in role.
Tech Trend: Colts, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football Predictions: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts Odds
by Alan Matthews

There were some top Super Bowl contenders that lost in Week 1. Pittsburgh in New England, Seattle in St. Louis, and Baltimore in Denver come to mind. But those games were all competitive. So I think it's fair to say that no potential Super Bowl team looked worse last week than the Indianapolis Colts. Thus, I'd also say that makes Monday night's home opener against the Jets a must-win because we all know how hard it is for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs.

And believe it or not, winning or losing the opener is pretty important as well. Since 1978 when the NFL went to the 16-game schedule (and excluding the strike-shortened season of 1982), of the 538 teams that won openers, 281 would reach the playoffs and 168 won division titles. Of the 539 that lost openers (numbers aren't equal due to league having 31 teams for a few years), 129 made the postseason and only 74 won their divisions.

Jets at Colts Betting Story Lines

I don't think it was a shock that the Jets beat the visiting Browns in Week 1, but it was a through a**-kicking in the New York head coaching debut of Todd Bowles. Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is only starting because Geno Smith got sucker-punched in training camp, was solid enough in going 15-for-24 for 179 yards, two TDs and one pick. That's about what Fitzpatrick is. Chris Ivory rushed 20 times for 91 yards and two scores. And new Jet Brandon Marshall caught six passes for 62 yards and a TD.

The Jets defense, which will be crazy aggressive under the blitz-happy Bowles, forced five turnovers and had three sacks. In 2014, the Jets had 20 points off turnovers all season long. Last week against the Browns, the Jets had 21 points off turnovers. The New York D did suffer two injuries in the game: linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and cornerback Antonio Cromartie. The former suffered a concussion and the latter a sprained knee, which made the Jets thrilled because they worried it was torn ligaments. Both seem doubtful for this game. Marcus Williams, a second-year cornerback from North Dakota State, will most likely replace Cromartie, who was brought back in free agency this offseason along with Darrelle Revis.

As for the Colts, they looked overmatched in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo that wasn't that close. The Colts turned the ball over three times, had only 64 yards rushing with new No. 1 tailback Frank Gore and allowed offensively-challenged Buffalo to put up 342 yards. Andrew Luck had a rating of only 63.6, completing 26-for-49 for 243 yards, two scores and two picks. He was 10-for-25 with two interceptions against blitzes. Luck was blitzed on 49 percent of his dropbacks. Expect plenty more!

Gore had eight carries for 31 yards. Andre Johnson, another new addition, had four catches for 24 yards. Indy star receiver T.Y. Hilton suffered a bruised right knee in the loss and is questionable for Monday. Donte Moncrief would start if he can't go. Also monitor the status of top Colts pass-rusher Robert Mathis. He missed all of last season due to suspension/torn Achilles' tendon. Mathis, who had a league-best 19.5 sacks in 2013, was hoping to get back for the opener but was inactive.

There's already some drama surround the Colts. Rumors are that GM Ryan Grigson and Coach Chuck Pagano haven't been on the same page for a while. Pagano might be in a lame-duck year. He reportedly turned down a contract extension last offseason because it was a low-ball offer.

Nothing to take from last meeting between teams, a 35-9 Jets home win in 2012.


Jets at Colts Monday Night Football Betting Odds and Trends

The Colts are 7.5-point favorites (+110) with the total at 47. Indy is -330 on the moneyline and New York +270. On the alternate lines, the Colts are -7 (-110) and -6.5 (-130).

The Jets are 5-0 against the spread in their past five vs. the AFC. They are 3-1-2 ATS in their past six following a win. Indy is 18-3 ATS in its past 21 following a loss. The Colts are 21-6-1 ATS in their past 28 at home. The "over/under" has gone under in six of Jets' past eight vs. AFC. The over is 14-3 in New York's past 17 after scoring 30 or more points in its previous game. The under is 7-1 in the Colts' past eight. The under is 5-2 in their past seven at home.


Monday Night Football Predictions: Jets at Colts Expert Betting Picks

Oddly, this is Fitzpatrick's fourth straight season starting vs. the Colts but with a fourth different team. He was with Buffalo in 2012, Tennessee in 2013 and Houston last year. All Bowles wants him to do is manage the game like in Week 1 and avoid mistakes. The Jets are still the same: win with running and defense. New York jumped to +4000 to win the AFC with its Week 1 victory.

That Colts offensive line is a problem. And both Gore and Johnson look old. But maybe that was just Buffalo and on the road. Offenses generally play better at home without having to deal with the noise. But that Colts defense isn't anything special, either.

But let's not overreact yet. Indy, which is still the +485 second-favorite to New England for the AFC title, will play with some desperation here. To be safe, use the 6.5-point line and give the points. Go under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrington Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 7:12 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$10000 - H & G NW $7,501 LAST 4 STARTS AE: CLAIMING $20,000 HARRINGTON RACE CONDITIONS DRIVER CHOICES: ALLAN DAVIS 1 OVER 7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium


# 4 FIRE IN THE BELLY 4/1

# 1 PAPA RAY 5/2

# 2 FOUR STACES 6/1

FIRE IN THE BELLY sure does look ready to score. Take a look at this fine animal's avg speed figure of 92 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a great wager. Kirby and King have a really good working relationship. Outstanding results from their contests. The consortium always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning stat is proof of that. PAPA RAY - Enters this affair with good TrackMaster class markings relative to the bunch - could be worth a shot. Should be considered this time if only for the nice speed rating achieved in the last race. FOUR STACES - Davis fits this interesting entrant's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some tremendous results when teaming up. With Dennis in the sulky, watch out for this entrant to get the win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 12:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$3700 - F& M SIX YEAR OLDS AND UNDER W/O 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 3 PM A/O $7500 LT L STALBAUM 5 OVER 4,7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium


# 4 BULLVILLEPOWERPUFF 5/2

# 1 N MAKE IT SNAPPY 9/2

# 5 NEFERTITI ROYAL 3/1

Hey, listen up! BULLVILLEPOWERPUFF is the smart wager if you like to win. This outing may be controlled by this mare. A single look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will verify that. Don't pass over a horse with these connections. Driver-trainer numbers are looking very good. Aldrich is racking up the wins recently. Top notch win stat makes this standardbred our choice. N MAKE IT SNAPPY - Hands down the best post at Monticello Raceway is the 1. The win statistic is very good. Battling admirably, achieved a very strong TrackMaster Speed Rating in her last outing (67). NEFERTITI ROYAL - Loved this mare's last race. Ran a strong 69 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major player. Look for Washington and this solid standardbred to score for this one. Excellent in the money percent for the trainer/horse team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 37

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 FLEET SELECT 5/2


# 3 ITZ ALL GOOD 8/1


# 8 LIARLIAR PANTSONFIRE 5/1


I've got to go with FLEET SELECT. Always difficult to beat Wilson and Holmes working together, winning 21 percent of their races. ITZ ALL GOOD - The extreme drop in class can only aid this one this time out. LIARLIAR PANTSONFIRE - Meeting a much easier field than last time out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 57

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 HEAVENLY SUMMER 6/1


# 3 GIRLS AND GUNS 2/1


# 1 FLATTERING TALES 4/1


My selection in here is HEAVENLY SUMMER. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Ice running at this distance are the top in this group of horses in this race. Could best this field based on the Equibase speed fig - 52 - of her last outing. The average class figure of 51 makes this one tough to beat. GIRLS AND GUNS - Her 54 average has this filly with among the top speed figures in this contest. With Sanchez in the saddle guiding her, this filly will most likely be able to break out sharply here. FLATTERING TALES - Could beat this group of horses given the 60 speed figure recorded in her last outing. No strangers to the winner's circle, Preciado and Navarro will almost certainly have this filly breaking away from the field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,400 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 BLUES EDGE (ML=8/1)
#1 MIRACLE IN MAY (ML=4/1)
#3 SHIMMY (ML=6/1)


BLUES EDGE - I think this mare is coming into top form. Likes to go to the front end and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be advantageous. Have to give this race horse a good look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. Stand by this horse. No other viable pace gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the class ability to make her presence felt. MIRACLE IN MAY - Equibase speed figs on the grass point to this horse as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance & surface. Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the class ability to make her presence felt. SHIMMY - Paucar was aboard this mare in the last race and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. When Paucar and Jenkins team up on animals the ROI has been terrific at +195. This mare is in top form right now. Ended up first last race out and comes back quickly. The improved speed figs over the last 3 races is strong. Jenkins drops her in this race ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MISTIE ROYALE (ML=6/5), #5 CAROLINA ROSA (ML=6/1),

MISTIE ROYALE - Hasn't raced or had any works since Aug 26th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. CAROLINA ROSA - Didn't do much last time out of the box. Probably won't make an impact today.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MIRACLE IN MAY - A must consideration in your gambling today. This noble animal's superior average class number makes her tough to beat.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 BLUES EDGE is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,2,3] with [1,2,3] with [1,2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7 - Post: 7:55pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#11 MAXIMUM EXPRESS (ML=8/1)
#8 FIFTY SHADES (ML=7/2)
#10 BASES LOADED (ML=6/1)


MAXIMUM EXPRESS - Last time he ran at this distance he garnered a speed rating good enough to win today's race. This speedball should benefit from today's shorter distance. This rider and trainer have a positive return on investment when they work together. This racer wins a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can augment the lifetime bankroll in this event. FIFTY SHADES - I am keen on that most recent effort on September 1st at Presque Isle Downs where he ran third. I'll forgive that last effort on Sep 1st when he was beaten as the public choice. That race was pretty good for a $16,000 Claiming race and this gelding's speed fig was solid. This gelding's last speed rating is good enough to score here, I'll bet on him right back in today's event. BASES LOADED - Rodriguez was aboard this colt in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. This pony coming off a nice contest in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MARQUETRY'S TUNE (ML=3/1), #9 GO WITH PEACE (ML=5/1),

MARQUETRY'S TUNE - Tough to take this steed at the price after the finish position (seventh) in the last affair. GO WITH PEACE - This gelding ran his best speed fig in some time on the dirt in a sprint event. There may be a performance bounce today.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FIFTY SHADES - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top TrackMaster Power Rating by at least 5 points.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #11 MAXIMUM EXPRESS on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
11 with [8,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [8,10,11] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[8,10,11] with [8,10,11] with [7,8,9,10,11] with [7,8,9,10,11] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 9/21 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

3,7/1,4,6,10/1,2,5/1,2,3 = $72


LATE PICK 4: 2,4,8/8/2,5,6/7,9,10

MEET STATS: 323 - 1029 / $1756.20 BEST BETS: 45 - 92 / $146.30

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 88 / $92.30

Best Bet: THE MURMURING MAN (9th)

Spot Play: WEIGHT TIME (1st)


Race 1

(7) WEIGHT TIME was racing okay before she tried the Grand Circuit last time. With his good gate speed he could take this group coast-to-coast. (6) ULITTLERIPPER closed for 2nd off a following trip in her debut and should contend here. (1) MAJESTIC DIVA improved last time out and produced her best performance to date. She should get a good piece of this.

Race 2

(6) SIERRA MADRE drops into a claimer for the first time and has shown he can take a lot of air and keep coming; top call. (5) PIER HO TEMPTATION has been facing better in $15K claimers vs. elders. This race -restricted to his own age group - should be more to his liking. (4) DRAFT SEELSTER has 3 wins in his past 4 out of town and his good tactical speed should play well here.

Race 3

(10) MIDNIGHT TOKER picks up a catch-driver here and should be right there if he can improve a bit on his Sept. 11 qualifier. (5) JAYPORT ON THE EDGE left for the front last time, re-moved mid-race and hung on for 2nd behind a big winner. He's a contender here. (3) TYMAL WIZARD made the front early from the 10-hole then got shuffled out of the race. He figures to get a good trip here and isn't out of the question for the top spot.

Race 4

(3) VITAL SIGN has lost two straight to a very sharp horse and may actually find this conditioned group easier; top call in a wide-open race. (7) SWEET COLT OF MINE makes his second start off the Waxman claim and is a must-use in the early pick 4 considering how weak this field is. (5) I SCOOT SAM has seen better days but is a contender by default here despite coming off the vet scratch.

Race 5

(1) UTOPIA raced well trying to chase down a loose leader off soft fractions in an amateur driver race last week. He is only a one-time winner this season but may have found a field he can beat here. (10) E L ROCK was a big winner - also in an amateur driver race - but two back was a good third to one that then stepped up and repeated. He is a contender here, even from the 10-hole. (4) GIRL DRAMA comes off a sharp win but has now missed some time which is a bit puzzling; using in the early pick 4.

Race 6

(1) BLAYDE HANOVER improved with the drop into maidens last time and is a top contender here. (2) GOTTI battled through a quick first 1/2 and led to the last few steps in a great effort; using. (5) SOUTHWIND MONTY stayed in throughout his debut but wasn't far back at the wire. He likely has a lot more to offer than what you see in that lone chart line.

Race 7

(3) HURRICANE HAZEL raced tough first up behind a runaway winner last week. She races better coming off a helmet and should be able to work out a covered trip here. (1) PISCEAN makes a massive class drop here and should enjoy ditching the likes of Mission Brief; contender. (2) HILLSONATOR couldn't close from far back vs. a blowout winner last time but should be closer early here and get a piece of this.

Race 8

(4) CAJON LIGHTNING was closing powerfully late last time but just couldn't reach the winner. He looks best here and the move inside a few slots should help. (8) SURF REPORT left hard and then took a shuffle in the same race. He should be prominent throughout here. (2) TRIPLE SEELSTER was first-up - also in the same dash - and tired a bit late. He could take this with a better trip.

Race 9

(8) THE MURMURING PAN was such a dominant winner in his season's debut that it's hard to imagine him not repeating here; pick 4 single. (6) MYLITTLESTARSHINE was given a good drive and trip by Zeron last week and should be close here with her good late speed. (7) STRIKNGLYIMPRESIVE lived up to his name last week but will need to get faster in a hurry to contend with the choice.

Race 10

(5) KEN KAN WIN closed with a tremendous late rush to get up to win last week. He can lay closer and race effectively, too; top call. (2) TORTOLA SUNRISE gets post relief here and can be much closer to the choice than last week off a better trip. (6) STEEL RESERVE raced strongly first-over last week but some of these look a bit tougher.

Race 11

(10) DAZZLING ROCKETTE put in a big mile on a sloppy track rated three seconds slow. She will need to find a spot early here with other speed signed on, but should take this if she can land in the top five off the gate. (7) SOUTHWIND GINGER drops in from Grassroots company; don't be surprised if she leaves much harder here. (9) A LOT OF SENSE is in good form but post 9 isn't the best for her. (1) C C CALLMEKELLY was claimed two back following her 82nd straight loss. Following loss #83 a minor award looks likely. (5) MARIGOLD BLOOM continues to take a big hit every week when the mutuels open and has yet to deliver; small share predicted.