Monday 9/11/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Pesos]

Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.

 

[Pesos]

NFL Trend Report

NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) at MINNESOTA (8 - 8) - 9/11/2017, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
____________________________________________________________________

LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) at DENVER (9 - 7) - 9/11/2017, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Pesos]

NFL Trend Report

8:10 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MINNESOTA
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

11:20 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DENVER
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

 

[Pesos]

NFL Tech Trends

NEW ORLEANS at MINNESOTA (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Saints are 15-6 last 21 on board and 10-1 last 11 as dog. Also 9-1 vs. points last ten on road. Vikes dropped 7 of last 11 vs. number in 2016.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on team trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at DENVER (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)
Lynn and Joseph debuts! Bolts dropped last five vs. line LY as they were about to bolt SD. LAC 18-8-1 as road dog from 2012-15 but only 3-3 LY and have dropped 2 of last 3 vs. line and 5 of last 6 SU in Denver. “Overs” 6-1 last 7 reg season meetings in Denver.
Tech Edge: Broncos and “over,” based on series trends.

 

[Pesos]

NFL Records From Last Year:

Best ATS Teams from Last Year:
New England 13-3
New Orleans 11-5
Atlanta 10-6
Dallas 10-6
Oakland 10-6
Washington 10-6

Worst ATS Teams from Last Year:
Cleveland:3-12-1
St. Louis 4-11-1
SF 49ers: 5-11
NY Jets: 6-10
Buffalo: 6-10
Arizona: 6-10

Best Over Teams from Last Year:
Atlanta: 13-2-1
Buffalo: 12-4
Miami: 12-4
Washington: 12-4
Oakland: 11-5

Best Under Teams from Last Year:
NY Giants: 4-12
Cincinnati: 6-10
Dallas: 6-10
Detroit: 6-10
Houston: 6-10
Kansas City: 6-10
New England: 6-10
Pittsburgh: 6-10

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

3pm ET

West Ham v Huddersfield

Referee: Kevin Friend

Last Head-To-Heads at West Ham:
3-0 (West Ham win)
3-0 (West Ham win)
0-1 (Huddersfield win)
1-5 (Huddersfield win)

Recent Form:
West Ham: 2-3
Huddersfield: 3-0-2

KEY STAT: Huddersfield are yet to lose a Premier League game

EXPERT VERDICT: West Ham have lost each of their opening three matches and conceded ten goals but they will receive a boost by playing in front of a home crowd for the first time. However, they’re not certain to beat a Huddersfield team who have started the season with vigour. The Terriers are now unbeaten in three and while David Wagner’s men will struggle to maintain the pace they possess a real goal threat in Steve Mounie and an excellent playmaker in Aaron Mooy and they should be confident of gaining at least a point.

RECOMMENDATION: Huddersfield or draw double chance (2)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

Spain - La Liga

3pm ET

Malaga v Las Palmas

Last Head-To-Heads at Malaga:
2-1 (Malaga win)
4-1 (Malaga win)
1-1
2-1 (Malaga win)

Recent Form:
Malaga: 2-3-1
Las Palmas: 0-6

KEY STAT: Las Palmas have taken one point from their last possible 27 in the league

EXPERT VERDICT: The upbeat end to last season for Malaga hasn't been mirrored at the start of this one, with two defeats and no goals scored. The problems at Las Palmas, however, look to be running far deeper – they too have lost their two openers, making it seven top-flight losses in a row so take Malaga to triumph.

RECOMMENDATION: Malaga (2)

 

[Pesos]

MLB

National League

Pirates @ Brewers
Brault allowed three runs in five IP (91 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-3 win over the Cubs. Pirates’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Woodruff is 1-1, 1.52 in four starts this year (under 4-0). Brewers are 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1

Pirates lost their last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six. Bucs are 1-6 in last seven road series openers. Milwaukee just swept Cubs three games; they’re 4-1 in last five home games. Under is 5-2-2 in their last nine games. Brewers are 7-3 in last ten home series openers.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Gray is 3-2, 2.73 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 1-1, 4.09 vs Arizona this season. Colorado is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-1

Greinke is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six starts. He is 2-1, 3.62 in four starts vs Colorado this year. Arizona is 16-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-6-5

Rockies won six of their last seven games; their last six games went over. Colorado is 4-11 in last 15 road series openers. Arizona is 14-2 in its last 16 games, 16-7 in home series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.

Dodgers @ Giants
Maeda is 1-2, 5.85 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1). Dodgers are 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-3

Stratton is 2-1, 1.99 in his last four starts (under 4-2). Giants are 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-1

Dodgers lost 10 games in row, 15 of their last 16 games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games. LA is 12-3 in last 15 road series openers. Giants are 4-12 in last 16 games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five. SF is 3-13 in last 16 home series openers.
__________________________________________________

American League

Orioles @ Blue Jays
Jimenez is 0-2, 10.39 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six road starts. Baltimore is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-3

Estrada is 2-0, 4.50 in his last three starts; Jays scored 23 runs in the three games. Over is 4-1 in his last five starts. He is 2-0, 3.16 in four starts vs Baltimore this year. Jays are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-15-3

Orioles lost their last four games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Baltimore is 9-13 in road series openers. Toronto lost six of last nine home games but won last two; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Blue Jays are 4-10 in last 14 home series openers.

Tigers @ Indians
Boyd is 0-4, 8.38 in his last six starts; over is 7-3-2 in his last 12 starts. He is 1-1, 2.41 in three starts vs Cleveland this season. Detroit is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-6

Carrasco is 4-1, 1.90 in his last six starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten starts. He is 3-1, 2.14 in five starts vs Detroit this year. Indians are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 19-7-2

Tigers lost 8 of last 10 games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games. Detroit is 6-10 in last 16 road series openers. Cleveland won its last 18 games; under is 13-4 in their last 17 home games. Tribe won its last eight home series openers.

New York vs Tampa Bay (@ Citi Field in NYC- Rays are home team)
Sabathia is 2-0, 3.33 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is 2-0, 3.77 in three starts vs Tampa Bay this season. NY is 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-1

Odorizzi is 2-0, 2.31 in his last two starts; over is 11-4 in his last 15 starts. Tampa Bay is 4-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-4

This series is in the Mets’ stadium because of the hurricane. New York won six of last eight games; eight of their last nine road games went over. Tampa Bay lost three of last four games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Rays won five of last six series openers.

Mariners @ Rangers
Miranda is 1-0, 4.50 in his last four starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. Seattle is 10-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-3

Hamels is 0-2, 8.81 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts. He is 0-0, 6.55 in two starts vs Seattle this season. Rangers are 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-2-2

Mariners lost their last five road games; their last six games overall stayed under. Seattle is 10-3 in last 13 road series openers. Texas lost three of last four games; over is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games. Rangers are 12-6 in last 18 home series openers.

White Sox @ Royals
Lopez is 0-3, 5.51 in his last three starts (under 3-1). Chicago lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3

Hammel is 3-1, 4.68 in his last four starts; KC scored 27 runs in those four games. Over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Royals are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-7

Chicago lost five of last seven games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. White Sox are 6-16 in road series openers. Royals are 5-3 in their last eight games; over is 7-3 in their last 10 games. Kansas City is 1-4 in last five home series openers.
__________________________________________________

Record with this pitcher starting:
National League
Pitt-Mil: Brault 1-0; Woodruff 2-2
Colo-Az: Gray 10-6; Greinke 20-8
LA-SF: Maeda 15-8; Stratton 3-3

American League
Balt-Tor: Jimenez 11-11; Estrada 13-16
Det-Clev: Boyd 8-13; Carrasco 20-8
NY-TB: Sabathia 15-8; Odorizzi 10-14
Sea-Tex: Miranda 15-13; Hamels 11-8
Chi-KC: Lopez 1-3; Hammel 10-18
__________________________________________________

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Pitt-Mil: Brault 1-1; Woodruff 0-4
Colo-Az: Gray 4-16; Greinke 3-28
LA-SF: Maeda 8-23; Stratton 1-6

American League
Balt-Tor: Jimenez 7-22; Estrada 10-29
Det-Clev: Boyd 5-21; Carrasco 5-28
NY-TB: Sabathia 6-23; Odorizzi 7-24
Sea-Tex: Miranda 12-28; Hamels 8-28
Chi-KC: Lopez 1-4; Hammel 5-28
__________________________________________________

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 81-56 AL, favorites -$236
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 148-128 AL, favorites -$201

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 69-66-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 143-125-11
__________________________________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/10/17
Ariz 28-26-19……39-22–11……..67-48
Atl 26-34-9……25-39-8………..51-73
Cubs 32-31-8…….34-24-14………..66-55
Reds 22-41-9……..29-36–7……….51-77
Colo 38-27-6…….37-29-5………..75-56
LA 31-24-13…….41-25-9……….72-49
Miami 30-33-9…….35-26-10………65-59
Milw 35-27-10…….35-27-9……….69-54
Mets 31-34-4……..30-37-7……….61-71
Philly 19-43-16……26-31-8………..45-74
Pitt 30-34-7…….28-31-13………59-65
St. Louis 30-32-9……37-24-10………..67-56
SD 21-41-8……..36-29–9…………57-70
SF 16-49-9……..28-30-12……….44-79
Wash 42-23-7……33-29-9………….75-52

Orioles 27-36-5……..30-37-7………57-73
Boston 30-32-10………33-36-2…….63-68
White Sox 21-37-10………29-42–4…….50-78
Cleveland 44-23-8……..34-24-8……….78-47
Detroit 27-35-10…….28-33-10……..55-68
Astros 35-27-11……..43-24-5……..78-51
KC 26-33-10……..29-29-13…….55-62
Angels 26-39-8………29-27-13……..55-66
Twins 38-23-12………32-32-8…….69-54
NYY 32-38-6……….36-27-4…..…68-65
A’s 25-36-7……..32-32-12……..57-68
Seattle 26-35-9……..39-25-10………65-60
TB 36-28-10……..38-21-9……..74-49
Texas 34-26-11……..37-25-8……..71-51
Toronto 29-37-5……..28-32-11……..57-69

%age of times teams score in first inning
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/10/17
Ariz 22-71……..25-70………..47
Atl 16-68……….19-75……….35
Cubs 20-71……..25-72………..45
Reds 28-73……..26-72……….54
Colo 20-71……..25-71..……..45
LA 20-68……..26-74..…….46
Miami 31-72……..26-71………..57
Milw 24-72……27-72…..……51
Mets 31-69……..25-74……….56
Philly 17-78……..20-66……….37
Pitt 20-71……..22-73……….42
StL 15-72……..22-70………..37
SD 23-70……….24-73……….47
SF 17-75……….20-70……….37
Wash 26-72……..28-71……….54

Orioles 16-69……..24-75……….40
Boston 20-72……..17-71……….37
White Sox 21-68……20-75………..41
Clev 22-76……..23-68………45
Detroit 17-71…….26-71………43
Astros 21-74……..28-70………49
KC 18-70……..15-73………..33
Angels 27-75……..20-70……….47
Twins 17-71……..18-71……….35
NYY 18-75……..18-67……….36
A’s 16-68……..27-76………43
Seattle 21-70…….25-76……….46
TB 21-73……..24-71……….45
Texas 28-72……..29-70………57
Toronto 24-72……..21-74………45

 

[Pesos]

MLB Trend Report

7:07 PM
BALTIMORE vs. TORONTO
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Baltimore's last 24 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

7:10 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Cleveland's last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit

7:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

7:40 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

8:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games when playing on the road against Texas
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Seattle
Texas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Seattle

8:15 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. KANSAS CITY
Chi White Sox are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox

9:40 PM
COLORADO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

10:15 PM
LA DODGERS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing San Francisco
LA Dodgers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games at home

 

[Pesos]

MLB Trend Report

BALTIMORE @ TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing at home against Baltimore

DETROIT @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Detroit's last 25 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

NY YANKEES @ TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games

PITTSBURGH @ MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

SEATTLE @ TEXAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games

CHI WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Chi White Sox is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

COLORADO @ ARIZONA
Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
Arizona is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

LA DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games
San Francisco is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games

 

[Pesos]

MLB Long Sheet

BALTIMORE (71 - 72) at TORONTO (66 - 77) - 7:05 PM
UBALDO JIMENEZ (R) vs. MARCO ESTRADA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 59-84 (-25.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-30 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 13-27 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 212-339 (-105.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
JIMENEZ is 67-100 (-30.7 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
JIMENEZ is 31-60 (-28.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 159-146 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 32-26 (+8.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TORONTO is 66-77 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 161-179 (-53.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
TORONTO is 26-38 (-14.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TORONTO is 37-52 (-24.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TORONTO is 25-41 (-22.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TORONTO is 30-32 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ESTRADA is 6-12 (-10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 11-5 (+7.3 Units) against TORONTO this season
11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+6.9 Units)

UBALDO JIMENEZ vs. TORONTO since 1997
JIMENEZ is 8-5 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.274.
His team's record is 11-6 (+8.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-9. (-2.4 units)

MARCO ESTRADA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
ESTRADA is 6-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.135.
His team's record is 9-3 (+6.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-8. (-5.0 units)
_______________________________________________________________________

NY YANKEES (77 - 65) at TAMPA BAY (71 - 73) - 7:10 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. JAKE ODORIZZI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 10-19 (-9.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 15-24 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-27 (+7.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SABATHIA is 15-8 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 11-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 23-12 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 73-35 (+28.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 139-166 (-34.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 72-78 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 11-23 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 87-110 (-27.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 8-5 (+2.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.7 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
SABATHIA is 16-14 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.251.
His team's record is 24-20 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 20-22. (-4.6 units)

JAKE ODORIZZI vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
ODORIZZI is 5-6 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.71 and a WHIP of 1.132.
His team's record is 5-7 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-5. (+1.1 units)
_______________________________________________________________________

DETROIT (60 - 82) at CLEVELAND (87 - 56) - 7:10 PM
MYLES JAYE (R) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 60-82 (-20.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 35-57 (-20.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 40-62 (-19.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CLEVELAND is 87-46 (+21.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 28-8 (+16.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-13 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
CARRASCO is 30-38 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CARRASCO is 13-20 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
CARRASCO is 13-19 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 10-6 (+0.4 Units) against DETROIT this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.3 Units)

MYLES JAYE vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

CARLOS CARRASCO vs. DETROIT since 1997
CARRASCO is 8-7 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.31 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 11-8 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-12. (-6.9 units)
_______________________________________________________________________

PITTSBURGH (67 - 77) at MILWAUKEE (75 - 68) - 7:40 PM
STEVEN BRAULT (L) vs. BRANDON WOODRUFF (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 67-77 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 96-120 (-36.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 41-57 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 109-129 (-31.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 32-44 (-12.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PITTSBURGH is 131-271 (-75.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
MILWAUKEE is 75-68 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 50-35 (+15.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 47-42 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-32 (+25.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 39-34 (+11.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 8-5 (+3.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
9 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+6.5 Units)

STEVEN BRAULT vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
BRAULT is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 1-2 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.3 units)

BRANDON WOODRUFF vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
No recent starts.
_______________________________________________________________________

SEATTLE (71 - 72) at TEXAS (71 - 71) - 8:05 PM
ARIEL MIRANDA (L) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 71-71 (+3.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 91-62 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 74-58 (+19.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 123-96 (+31.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 78-66 (+24.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 25-15 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 36-34 (+7.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HAMELS is 35-17 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 30-11 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 25-11 (+14.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 29-11 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 33-14 (+17.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 18-8 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games in September games over the last 3 seasons.
MIRANDA is 10-5 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
MIRANDA is 13-7 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 35-38 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 8-4 (+4.7 Units) against TEXAS this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

ARIEL MIRANDA vs. TEXAS since 1997
MIRANDA is 1-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.114.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

COLE HAMELS vs. SEATTLE since 1997
HAMELS is 5-3 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.486.
His team's record is 7-5 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-7. (-4.0 units)
_______________________________________________________________________

CHI WHITE SOX (56 - 86) at KANSAS CITY (71 - 71) - 8:15 PM
REYNALDO LOPEZ (R) vs. JASON HAMMEL (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 16-42 (-18.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 71-71 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 85-68 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 76-63 (+16.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 55-51 (+8.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 38-33 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 405-412 (+35.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 280-397 (-108.3 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
HAMMEL is 17-23 (-14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 7-6 (-0.2 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

REYNALDO LOPEZ vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
LOPEZ is 0-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

JASON HAMMEL vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
HAMMEL is 2-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.347.
His team's record is 4-1 (+4.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.3 units)
_______________________________________________________________________

COLORADO (78 - 65) at ARIZONA (83 - 60) - 9:40 PM
KYLE FREELAND (L) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 444-704 (-137.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 83-60 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 46-25 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 38-25 (+13.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ARIZONA is 59-40 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 21-14 (+8.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 51-31 (+18.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ARIZONA is 33-27 (+9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GREINKE is 20-8 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 44-10 (+24.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 14-2 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 99-48 (+38.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 68-26 (+35.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 78-65 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 37-34 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 4-0 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games in September games this season.
COLORADO is 35-25 (+14.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
COLORADO is 19-15 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
COLORADO is 31-25 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ARIZONA is 237-235 (-57.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 9-6 (+2.7 Units) against COLORADO this season
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.8 Units)

KYLE FREELAND vs. ARIZONA since 1997
FREELAND is 1-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. COLORADO since 1997
GREINKE is 9-5 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.04 and a WHIP of 1.318.
His team's record is 14-9 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-13. (-4.5 units)
_______________________________________________________________________

LA DODGERS (92 - 51) at SAN FRANCISCO (56 - 89) - 10:15 PM
KENTA MAEDA (R) vs. CHRIS STRATTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 81-74 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 1-10 (-19.7 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
LA DODGERS are 32-32 (-23.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
LA DODGERS are 133-97 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 90-87 (-28.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 4-9 (-12.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 116-67 (+31.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Monday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 51-18 (+18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 56-89 (-37.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 47-62 (-27.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-38 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-38 (-19.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 37-57 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 39-64 (-32.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 38-51 (-14.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-7 (+1.8 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

KENTA MAEDA vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MAEDA is 3-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.678.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

CHRIS STRATTON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

 

[Pesos]

MLB Top Trends

COLORADO @ ARIZONA
Play OVER ARIZONA on the total in All games when playing with a day off. The record is 12 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+9.95 units)

COLORADO @ ARIZONA
Play OVER ARIZONA on the total in All games when playing with a day off. The record is 22 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+14.65 units)

 

[Pesos]

StatFox Super Situations

CHI WHITE SOX at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHI WHITE SOX) with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 8 runs or more 79-71 over the last 5 seasons. ( 52.7% | 43.3 units ) 11-18 this year. ( 37.9% | -1.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 46-32 (+25.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: MILWAUKEE (5.5) , OPPONENT (4.6)

 

[Pesos]

MLB Betting Picks & Tips

Baltimore at Toronto (-120); Total: 10
Time is a factor for the Baltimore Orioles. The Toronto Blue Jays are just trying to scrape some positives out of an injury-riddled season. It’s sort of amazing that a team with Ubaldo Jimenez in the starting rotation can be in the playoff hunt, but the Orioles are in that spot. Though, “being in the playoff hunt” means that the Orioles are three games out with four teams to leapfrog to sneak into that one-game playoff with the Yankees.

Jimenez takes the hill tonight as the Orioles look to bounce back from being Cleveland’s latest victim. Jimenez has a 6.80/5.55/4.62 pitcher slash on the season in 129.2 innings of work. He has allowed a career-high 29 home runs and, if you’ll recall, this is a guy that used to pitch for the Rockies. He has had better strikeout fortunes this season and has issued fewer walks, but his command has been non-existent and he has been poor at stranding runners again.

The guy on the other side, Marco Estrada, has experienced about four years of regression in his 29 starts. Estrada posted BABIPs of .262, .257, .216, and .234 over the last four seasons. His ERA/xFIP discrepancies over the last two seasons were 3.13/4.9 and 3.48/4.64. This season, he has a 5.00 ERA with a 5.05 xFIP. It has been ugly for Estrada, who has the highest HR/9 that he has had over the last three years, but has a .305 BABIP against to go along with it.

Jimenez will be making his first start since August 30. He’s allowed 17 runs on 23 hits over his last three starts, so he’s not exactly turning things around. Estrada just worked seven shutout against Boston after allowing six runs on 10 hits over five innings to the Orioles on August 31. I certainly understand making Toronto a small home favorite here, but I find the value side to be on Baltimore. The Indians dominated the Baltimore lineup by throwing a lot of curveballs and cutters and sliders to the right-handed-heavy lineup. Righties are batting .280/.361/.482 with Estrada’s reverse platoon splits because he doesn’t have much that runs away from righties. His changeup is more effective against lefties.

It’s an ugly game either way, but Baltimore is my preferred side.

New York (-130) vs. Tampa Bay; Total: 8.5
Yankees fans were going to be at this series either way, with a bunch of retiree Yankee fans in Tampa and surrounding areas, but they won’t have to go far for this series. With Hurricane Irma dropping lots of rain and creating other problems in Florida, this series will be played at Citi Field. So, it’ll be a short trek from the Bronx to Queens to support the Yankees for those that want to attend. We’ll probably see skeleton crowds for this series, though.

CC Sabathia and Jake Odorizzi are the listed starters. Sabathia has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.62 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP on the year in his 126.2 innings of work. Sabathia has become an extreme ground ball guy in an effort to compensate for the loss of velocity and the decline in stuff. If he works five or more innings tonight, he will cross the 3,300-inning mark. Only Bartolo Colon has thrown more innings and Sabathia and Colon are the only two over 3,000. The last guy to cross that mark was Mark Buehrle.

Sabathia had been in a nice groove before Baltimore touched him up for five runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings last time out. Sabathia allowed three homers in that start and has now allowed nine homers over his last seven outings. The nice thing for Sabathia and all the Yankees starters is that there isn’t a whole lot expected of them with the New York bullpen.

Jake Odorizzi has a 4.58 ERA with a 5.76 FIP and a 5.35 xFIP. Home runs have been Odorizzi’s biggest problem. The extreme fly ball right-hander has allowed 28 HR in 123.2 innings of work. He allowed 29 in 187.2 innings last season. He just worked 6.2 shutout against the Twins in his best start in quite some time, but most of his outings have been rocky this year.

The Yankees are my pick today. The Rays have some issues with lefties. The Yankees also have a bit of an advantage in that they don’t have to travel as far for this game and the Rays, even though the storm hasn’t done a lot of damage in Tampa, still have some distractions and worries. But, this is a fade of Odorizzi against the Yankees offense, which has found its stride again.

Seattle at Texas (-130); Total: 10
How much does the market want to fade Cole Hamels? Enough that influential money has come in on Mariners left-hander Ariel Miranda. Miranda has a 4.72 ERA with a 5.57 FIP and a 5.34 xFIP in his own right, so there are some signs of regression there with the left-hander. Miranda has allowed 35 home runs on the season in 156.1 innings of work. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher that will never be appreciated by the advanced metrics, but he hasn’t done much to earn that respect anyway.

Cole Hamels has a 4.03 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and a 4.92 xFIP. His strikeout rate is way down and his command isn’t what we’ve seen in the past. Hamels has been limited to 120.2 innings of work. It isn’t a very fun profile to look at, especially for a guy that had been one of the league’s best and most consistent starters for several years before this point.

I get the move. I won’t have a play here unless the Rangers move into range. Miranda doesn’t impress me either.

Underdog Pick of the Day: For those in search of an underdog, I’d consider the White Sox in the +155 or +160 range against the Royals. Reynaldo Lopez looked sharp in the last of his four Major League starts. There’s a fun little arsenal there and he’ll be a big part of the White Sox roster going forward. Jason Hammel isn’t very good and probably shouldn’t be a -170 favorite against anybody. The Royals are a better team, there’s no doubt about that, but the White Sox may have an edge in the starting pitcher department, so they can keep this close and it will come down to late-inning sequencing.

 

[Pesos]

NFL Week 1

Saints @ Vikings
Adrian Peterson visits his old team. Since 2014, New Orleans is 11-4-1 vs spread as a road underdog, 6-3-1 in non-division games. Under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Minnesota is 13-4 as home favorites under Zimmer; under is 14-10 in their last 24 home games. Saints won last four series games- three of those were in Superdome. Teams last met in ’14; Saints were last here in ’11. New Orleans lost five of last six season openers, are 0-4 in last four Week 1 road tilts; last time they won a Week 1 road game was ’06 in Cleveland. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers. Minnesota is 3-6 in last nine Week 1 games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 HO’s- this is only second time in last 10 years they open season at home.

Chargers @ Broncos
New era for Denver, with Siemian at QB now- they missed playoffs LY for first time in six years. Chargers have moved north an hour; unsure how unsettling the small move will be- it hurt the Rams LY. Denver is 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last four played here, by 7-14-7-8 points. Since 2014, Broncos are 8-10-1 vs spread as a home favorite- they won their last five home openers, are 6-2 in last eight. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10; this is 7th year in row Denver opened season at home. Chargers are 21-11-1 in last 33 games as a road underdog; under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Bolts covered four of last five road openers, losing last three, by 1-5-6 points; they’re 7-3 vs spread in last 10 Week 1 road tilts.

 

[Pesos]

Monday's Tip Sheet

Saints at Vikings (-3½, 48)

WELCOME BACK AD
Adrian Peterson makes his Saints’ debut on Monday night, visiting his old team as New Orleans heads to Minnesota. The seven-time Pro Bowler and 2012 Most Valuable Player saw action in only three games last season before he and the Vikings parted ways after the season. Peterson’s injury obviously destroyed Minnesota’s running game, which ranked last in the NFL in 2016 as the entire team rushed for 1,205 yards. To put that number in perspective, Peterson rushed for 1,485 yards in 2015 and busted the 1,200 yard-mark seven times in his career.

SLOW STARTERS
The Saints have dropped their season opener in each of the last three years, while starting 0-3 in both 2015 and 2016. New Orleans has lost five of their past six road season openers, but the Saints managed a cover in the 2016 away opener in a three-point loss to the Giants. The defense has also been shredded in Week 1 action since 2014 by allowing 37, 31, and 35 points the last three season, including the 2016 last-minute loss to Oakland.

PURPLE PRIDE
Minnesota was on its way to a playoff berth last season following a fast 5-0 start. However, Mike Zimmer’s team stumbled to a 3-8 record the final 11 games, while posting a 3-4 ATS mark in the favorite role. In Zimmer’s three-year tenure, the Vikings have compiled a strong 12-5 ATS record at home, while beginning the season with a home contest for the first time since edging Jacksonville, 26-23 in 2012.

SERIES HISTORY
The Saints have captured the last four meetings with the Vikings dating back to the epic 2009 NFC championship at the Superdome. New Orleans knocked off Minnesota in overtime, 31-28, vaulting the Saints into the Super Bowl and a title over Indianapolis. The most recent matchup came in the Big Easy in September 2014 as the Saints pulled away from the Vikings, 20-9 as 10-point favorites. Drew Brees threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while Peterson was out for Minnesota serving his season-long suspension.

GOLDEN DOGS
The Saints have strung together three straight 7-9 seasons, but Sean Payton’s squad profited in the role of an underdog last season. New Orleans posted a terrific 8-1 ATS mark when receiving points, including a 6-1 ATS ledger away from the Superdome. However, the Saints won only two of those games straight-up, while scoring late touchdowns to grab backdoor covers in losses at Kansas City, Carolina, and Atlanta.

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
New Orleans has not performed well under the Monday night lights recently by losing four of its past five games in this situation. However, the only victory did come on the road at Chicago, 31-15 in December 2014. Minnesota hasn’t been much better on Mondays, losing seven of its last eight dating back to 2009. The Vikings defeated the Giants at home last season, 24-10 as 3 ½-point favorites, while hosting on a Monday night for only the third time since 2010.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson provided his thoughts on the matchup, “Neither had a winning record despite positive scoring differentials last season and both Minnesota and New Orleans figure to end up right near the NFC Wild Card bubble by season’s end. The strengths last season were contrasting with Minnesota one of the top defensive teams in the NFC, allowing only 19.2 points per game compared to the Saints allowing 28.4 points per game. This will be the first time since 2005 that the Vikings will be favored in the matchup.”
__________________________________________________________________________

Chargers at Broncos (-3, 43)

WELCOME TO L.A.
Although the Chargers open the season in Denver, they make their regular season debut as the Los Angeles Chargers. Following a 55-year run in San Diego, the Chargers bolted north to join to the Rams as the second team in Los Angeles. Times haven’t been great for the Lightning Bolts, who last won the AFC West in 2009, while coming off a 5-11 record and fourth-place finish in 2016. It’s a new era also on the sidelines as former Bills’ assistant Anthony Lynn replaced Mike McCoy as head coach, who made one playoff appearance in four seasons.

REBOUND FOR THE BRONCOS?
Denver captured a Super Bowl title in Peyton Manning’s final season in 2015, highlighted by a stifling defensive performance against Carolina. Manning retired soon after the championship, leaving a major void at the quarterback position. Denver filled the hole with Trevor Siemian and started 4-0, but things went downhill as the Broncos won only five of their final 12 games and missed the playoffs. On a positive note, the Broncos bounced back from a 1-5-1 ATS record as a home favorite in their championship season to a 4-2 ATS mark in 2016 when laying points at Sports Authority Field.

HOT STARTERS
The Broncos own a five-game winning streak in season openers, while eclipsing the OVER four times in this stretch. Denver rallied past Carolina in last season’s Week 1 thriller, 21-20 to cash as three-point home underdogs. On the flip side, the Chargers have dropped each of their past three road debuts, but have cashed twice in the underdog role.

DIVISION WOES
The Chargers have not fared well against their cohorts from the AFC West by losing 11 of their last 12 divisional matchups since 2015. The ATS record isn’t too bad, going 6-6 ATS, including a 5-1 ATS mark on the road in this span.

SERIES HISTORY
So, who was the Chargers’ lone win in the last two seasons inside the division? Yep, it came against the Broncos last October, 21-13 as three-point home underdogs. That victory was the first for the Chargers over the Broncos at home since 2010, snapping a five-game skid, while cashing the UNDER for the fourth straight time at home in the series. Denver captured the second meeting at Sports Authority Field two weeks later, 27-19 as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Broncos intercepted Chargers’ quarterback Philip Rivers three times. Since the 2013 playoffs, the Broncos have won six of the past seven matchups, including four straight in Denver.

MONDAY NIGHT MISERY
The Chargers didn’t make an appearance under the Monday night lights in 2016, but they have not impressed in primetime recently. Since 2013, the Bolts have lost four of five Monday matchups, including a pair of home losses to the Steelers and Bears in 2015. The last road Monday night victory for the Chargers came at Oakland in 2012 as one-point underdogs, 22-14, which coincidentally took place in Week 1.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
Nelson is back for his analysis on the late-night matchup, “Lynn began his coaching career in Denver under Mike Shanahan while Broncos’ coach Vance Joseph hired former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy to be his offensive coordinator, a role McCoy held from 2009-12 with the franchise as well. The Chargers have been a play-on team in Denver in recent years going 9-3 ATS since 2006, though they have lost SU in five of the last six meetings in Denver, they did win the home meeting last season in San Diego. Close games have been the norm in this series with a pair of eight-point games won by the hosts last October.”

 

[Pesos]

Monday Night Football Betting Preview

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48 )
Adrian Peterson may have served as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, but the 2012 NFL MVP plans to show his now-former team that he has plenty left in the tank. Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night for its season opener against the Vikings.

"Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them." That plan of attack likely will go through quarterback Drew Brees (NFL-best 5,208 passing yards in 2016), who looks to keep New Orleans' top-ranked total offense (426.0 yards per game) in gear with second-year wideout Michael Thomas aiming to take the next step in the wake of the offseason departure of Brandin Cooks (New England). Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense that ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9). "It makes it more interesting once he bounces it outside or catches the ball," Pro Bowl cornerback Xavier Rhodes told the newspaper. "You have that extra adrenaline, whatever you want to call it, if you can stop him so you can talk trash later on that day."

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-0.5) - Vikings (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -3

LINE HISTORY:
The Vikings opened as 3.5 point chalk in Adrian Peterson’s return to Minnesota and the spread has dropped to -3. The total hit the betting board at 48 and has yet to change.

INJURY REPORT:

Saints
DE T. Hendrickson (Questionable, Illness), LB N. Stupar (Questionable, Hamstring), QB C. Daniel (Questionable, Ankle), T T. Armstead (Doubtful, Shoulder), WR W. Snead IV (Eligible Week 4, Suspension), LB S. Anthony (Late September, Ankle), CB D. Breaux (Questionable Week 9, Leg), WR C. Fuller (I-R, Undisclosed), TE C. Harbor (I-R, Undisclosed), DT D Lawrence (I-R, Knee), T M. Wallace (I-R, Undisclosed), WR D. Arnold (I-R, Undisclosed), DT N. Fairley (I-R, Heart)

Vikings
DE B. Robison (Probable, Groin), S A. Harris (Probable, Leg), G D. Isidora (Questionable, Knee), DB T. Brock (Questionable, Groin), WR M. Floyd (Eligibility Week 5, Groin), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, Week 7 Knee), QB T. Bridgewater (Questionable Week 7, Knee), RB B. Sankey (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2016: 7-9 WU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U):
Long the centerpiece in Minnesota's backfield, Peterson likely will take a complementary role with third-round rookie Alvin Kamara joining incumbent starter Mark Ingram, who is coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), scrimmage yards (1,362) and total touchdowns (10). While the offense rarely is an issue, New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons - including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016. Cameron Jordan (team-leading 7.5 sacks) and linebacker Craig Robertson (club-best 114 tackles) made their marks last year and rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore is hoping to do the same with the NFL's worst pass defense. "People think we're still at the bottom of the barrel. ... I love proving people wrong anyway, so I'm ready for it," the 21-year-old said.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2016: 9-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U):
Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season, due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the offseason, shortly after Peterson bolted to the Bayou. Stefon Diggs (team-leading 84 receptions) and Adam Thielen (career-high 967 receiving yards) serve as Bradford's wideouts while Kyle Rudolph's 83 catches in 2016 were the most by a tight end in franchise history.

TRENDS:
* Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
* Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games in Week 1.
* Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road pup Saints at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals action.

 

[Pesos]

Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3, 43)
The Denver Broncos aim to rebound from a subpar season by their standards, while the Los Angeles Chargers begin a new era when the two long-time AFC West rivals meet on Monday night in the Mile High City. Both teams also feature new coaches - Vance Joseph for Denver, Anthony Lynn for Los Angeles - while the Chargers play their initial game since unceremoniously ditching San Diego after 56 seasons.

The Broncos missed the playoffs last season after winning the Super Bowl following the 2015 campaign and once again will revolve around a defense led by star linebacker Von Miller. Denver rehired Mike McCoy to rev up the offense after he spent the last four seasons as the Chargers' coach, going a woeful 9-23 over the past two years before being fired. Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib took notice that Los Angeles wideout Keenan Allen is healthy after tearing an ACL in the 2016 season opener and cautioned that the Chargers are a dangerous foe. "They're healthy now, and they've got all of their guys and all of their guns are on deck," Talib told reporters. "They have Philip Rivers as their quarterback, so if you have a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, you're probably going to be pretty good on offense."

LINE HISTORY:
The Broncos opened as 4.5-point home favorites back in April when Week 1 lines were first released. With plenty of time to bet the underdog Chargers, the spread made its way down to the current number of -3. The total hit the betting boards at 44 and was ticked down a notch to 43.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Broncos (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Broncos -7

INJURY REPORT:

Chargers
WR T. Williams (Probable, Groin), WR D. Inman (Questionable, Groin), TE S. McGrath (Questionable, Knee), WR M. Williams (Out, Back), DT T. Palepoi (Out, Suspension), C M. Tuerk (Out, Suspension), DE J. Attaochu (Out, Hamstring), LB D. Perryman (Out, Ankle), G F. Lamp (I-R, Knee), DE C. Landrum (I-R, Shoulder), LB C. Moore (I-R, Undisclosed), TE A. Cleveland (I-R, Knee).

Broncos
RB J. Charles (Probable, Knee), CB A. Talib (Probable, Achilles), C M. Paradis (Probable, Hip), DE D. Wolfe (Probable, Ankle), WR D. Thomas (Probable, Groin), DE A. Gotsis (Questionable, Shoulder), LB S. Barrett (Questionable, Hip), DE J. Crick (Out, Back), RB D. Booker (Out, Wrist), QB P. Lynch Out, Shoulder), DE Z. Kerr (Out, Knee), LB S. Ray (Out, Wrist), TE J. Butt (Out, Knee), QB C. Kelly (Out, Wrist), WR C. Henderson (I-R, Thumb), DE B. Winn (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2016: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U):
Rivers still wings the ball all over the field at age 35 and has topped 4,000 yards eight times to go along with five seasons of 30 or more touchdown passes. Melvin Gordon missed a 1,000-yard rushing season by three yards when he sat out the final three games with hip and knee injuries, while veteran Antonio Gates has 111 career touchdown receptions - tied with Tony Gonzalez for most by a tight end in NFL history. Pass rushers Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks as a rookie) and Melvin Ingram (eight) will test a Denver offensive line that has four new starters while cornerback Casey Hayward (NFL-best seven interceptions) leads the secondary.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U):
Trevor Siemian begins his second year as a starter after passing for 3,401 yards last season and has a solid pair of receivers at his disposal in Demaryius Thomas (five straight 1,000-yard seasons) and Emmanuel Sanders (three straight). Running back C.J. Anderson is healthy after playing just seven games in 2016 before undergoing season-ending knee surgery while former Kansas City star Jamaal Charles will try to revive his career after appearing in only eight contests over the last two seasons due to his own knee woes. Miller is second in the NFL in both sacks (73.5) and forced fumbles (19) since entering in 2011 while Talib is tied for fourth in league history with nine career interceptions returned for touchdowns.

TRENDS:
* Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 Monday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in Week 1.
* Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.

CONSENSUS:
The public is siding with the home favorite Broncos at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is picking up 54 percent of the totals action.

 

[Pesos]

Dr. Bob ; NFL

Opinion
New Orleans +3.5

 

[Pesos]

Dave Cokin ; MLB

NYY -125