Monday 7/7/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Mohawk: Monday 7/7 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: SPORTSMANSHIP (6th)

Spot Play: RENSOM DEMAND (4th)



Race 1

(2) DITCHERQUICKNHIDE draws inside and qualified sharply in her latest in a good time. (7) SHEGUINDAH comes from the Keeling barn, shows versatility and just missed in her latest qualifier. (5) GEE OKEEFFE comes from a top trotting barn and posted a much improved qualifier in her latest.


Race 2

(4) ROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES comes from the Coleman barn, won his qualifier in 1:56 4/5 and looks like she has a lot left to offer. (7) MANNY IN SPORTS moves onto this circuit following a trio of qualifiers in the US and shows a lot of versatility and speed in his young age. (3) WINDSONG LIGHTNING is fresh off a win at Georgian Downs and is capable in here with an inside post.

Race 3

(5) VALBRUNELLA trotted in 1:56 2/5 in her latest and faces an easier field this week. (6) MAGIC IS COOL drops out of the Grassroots, comes from the Maxwell barn and is due for a big effort. (8) RUB THE GENIE made a miscue last week and will look for a turnaround effort. He has the speed, comes from a top barn and may offer a fair price.

Race 4

(6) RANSOM DEMAND qualified well over a 'Good' track with a two-second variant and comes from top connections and breeding. (5) JIGGLE IT closed very well in his latest from a post 10 start and drops into a much easier field. (1) CHRISTAS WINGS gets the rail, comes from the Gillis barn and has been much better in each of her last two.

Race 5

(9) RAGAZZO DOLCE went a big trip in his latest, parked the mile from a post 10 start. He's due for a win in here. (5) CRAZZYCRAZZY comes from the Coleman barn and was a game third last week in this class. (10) TSUNAMI SEELSTER will have to overcome post 10, but shows quick gate-speed, is fresh off a win and comes from the Wallace barn.

Race 6

(5) SPORTSMANSHIP posted a terrific winning qualifier in his latest and has been spoken of very highly by Menary all winter. (1) BOB BEN AND JOHN draws inside, comes from the Coleman barn and paced home very well in both qualifiers. (2) YORK SEELSTER won his qualifier in his most recent, comes from the Darling barn and is capable of dropping multiple seconds.

Race 7

(2) SUMMONS has been racing at his best for the past five weeks. He draws inside and comes from a high percentage barn. (10) SENATTLE SLEW has posted back-to-back wins and has been offering a price. (3) BUTTON FLY draws inside and has hit the board in three of his last four starts.

Race 8

(7) GO DADDY GO won at first asking for Hall of Famer McIntosh in a quick time and will offer a low price in here. (5) SOUTHWIND INDY comes from the Coleman barn, qualified very well and appears to have a lot left to offer. (6) SPORTING THE LOOK raced very well, timed in 1:54 4/5, in his most recent start and comes from the Jamieson camp. He may offer a fair price in here and is worth considering for the triactor.

Race 9

(7) SILVERHILL SHADOW won his division two starts back, comes out of Moore's barn and closed very well in his latest with a :26 1/5 final quarter. (6) MELMERBY BEACH raced much better last week, draws better and is capable of a big effort. (2) CAPOZZO recently moved into the Menary barn, hasn't been worse than second in each of his last three and gets Jamieson in the bike.

Race 10

(7) NARCIAN JEWEL just missed last week and is due for her first career win. (3) MAJOR HANGOVER draws inside, faces an easier field and comes from the Jones barn. (5) MIDNIGHT MAYHEM closed extremely well in her latest and should appreciate a better post to work with.

Race 11

(2) EMERALD LEXUS qualified sharply over a 'Good' track, draws inside and drops in class. (7) THE BIG BITE went a big effort in his latest and moves onto this circuit. (9) BEACH BUFF likely will offer a price. He drops in class and quick speed up front will increase his chances from the outside.
 
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Northfield: Monday 7/7 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day
DRF

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

4,6 / 1,7 / 6,8,9 / 1,6,8 = $36



Best Bet: MYTHICAL HALL (11th)

Spot Play: HEZA RUBE (5th)

Race 1

(2) ANNIE'S MASTER mare faces a much softer field than her last and should benefit from her early gate speed. (9) AL BROWN doesn't show it on paper but has been trotting up a storm recently. (1) CONDOR HALL could get a piece underneath if he can get away up close.

Race 2

In an evenly matched race (5) JO JO IN THE SKY has a marquee driver and a decent burst of speed. (4) ON EAGLES WINGS is 0 for the year but raced well last out being parked the mile. (9) COAL BURNER needs a lot of racing luck to have a shot late.

Race 3

(3) LIFE LONG HANOVER doesn't show it on paper but the 6-year-old trotter has beaten much better this year. (2) ROCKIN H CHEERY O has hit the board almost every start; threat. (6) MYSTERY XPOSED went from awesome to empty last out but a repeat of the start prior would make him tough to beat.

Race 4

(1) LB'S ALAMERICANJOY has much more ability than the field and will be on the move early for new connections. (2) CHROME SEELSTER looks to be in line for an excellent trip. (9) LIGHTNINGINTHESKY should be able to save ground before getting a shot to pass some horses late; use underneath.

Race 5

(8) HEZA RUBE just needs to find a way into the race for a big chance late if he minds his manners. (6) FORTUNE SAILOR does his best racing from off the pace which should be the case; threat. (4) FULL FORCE doesn't win often but does get sent out for a hot trainer.

Race 6

(4) DON'T FOOL ME NOW will offer a big price in a wide-open race. (3) CAM EAST went a huge three quarters of a mile last out before tiring late. (6) SANTA'S SPECIAL was the driver's choice and has shown a big burst of speed.

Race 7

(9) LOST JEWELS bumps up in class but was really good from off the pace closing a ton of ground late last out. (4) NOBLE TRICK has been pacing some fast miles and just missed last time at this level. (5) T R KILOWATT SAM looks to do his best racing upfront but could have a tough time finding a hole.

Race 8

(4) THORN IN YOUR SIDE had a rough go of it parked the mile last out but gets a much better post and should get a good spot up front. (6) CHASE THE SUN looks to make it six in a row and actually faces easier. (1) GRANDE SEELSTER gets the best post and has been a good move when timed right.

Race 9

(7) ANNIE'S ROCKETMAN will look to set sail early and went a big effort last out just missing. (1) MARY'S DARVIN is not the best getting out of the gate but should be close enough with the improved post down in class. (6) CABO mare owns some ability but would need much more to hit the top spot; use underneath.

Race 10

(8) MAJOR BELLE comes off a layoff but gets sent out for the top trainer in the country who usually has them ready off the bench. (9) CARMENS BEST needs to work out a trip from a tough post but could benefit from early fireworks. (6) BURSTING BLAZE former four claimer is in career form and gets sent out for an aggressive driver.

Race 11

(1) MYTHICAL HALL gets an enticing morning line and has a ton of early trot. (6) MISS PANTERS adds lasix for the first time and faces a softer group; threat. (8) ROSE RUN LOGAN is razor sharp but has a big bullseye on his back. The field will try to make it very tough on the trotting gelding looking to make it twelve wins in sixteen starts.

Race 12

(6) SCOOTNFORDAMONEY should offer a nice price but is facing much tougher. The pacer could try and hit the top early. (1) FOLLOW THROUGH was the driver's choice and will look to take advantage of the best post. (2) THE CLASSIC Z TAM has won three straight and keeps a top driver.

Race 13

(7) DUNGEON DRAGON is capable of winning by open lengths but is also capable of backing thru the field; command a price. (4) OUR MCLOVIN raced awesome from a tough spot last out; threat. (5) ROYAL CAM-HALL is capable of beating this field with a trip.

Race 14

(1) SPUDCAM was a dominating winner last out from the rail and will look to make it two straight in the same class. (9) PICTONIAN ESPRESSO is 0 for the year but should offer a big price and could be a player late. (2) OH WHATA GUY gets sent out for a provisional driver and is best used underneath.

Race 15

(2) CATALINA KID gets sent out first start for new connections that have been really good in this scenario. (1) HALLIN is a major player at this level with the best post. (4) DANNY'S ATTHEDANCE was much improved last out and a similar effort makes him a threat.
 
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Yonkers: Monday 7/7 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF HARNESS
Race 5 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 194 - 564 / $1022.70

BEST BETS: 33 - 46 / $108.30



Best Bet: CARD SHOCK (6th)

Spot Play: FREE ROLLIN (2nd)

Race 1

(2) LOCKLOADNEXPLODE has had some decent moments here in the past. Tonight he gets Bartlett in the bike. (1) COASTAL N got parked the mile at a big price last out and lingered around before tiring; he's got back class. (3) MACHMAN has been facing better out of town.

Race 2

(4) FREE ROLLIN is still looking to get underway this year but last week's effort wasn't awful; worth a look. (1) IZA BELLA ships from Saratoga, draws best and looks like she can fit here. (2) SECOND HAND NEWS has always been one of my favorites, but his regular pilot Holland isn't driving tonight.

Race 3

(1) COSMICPEDIA gets much-needed post relief in his local return and he should be ready to fly from this spot. (2) HARNESSNITENCANADA has been super in his last two and he can easily take another with a good trip. (3) BOOTS N BOURBON bumps up in class for new connections after blowing away a weak field.

Race 4

(6) THE WAY I AM won going away in his local debut and he may be even stronger tonight. (1) GEM SAM finished well in his career debut and the Mark Ford trainee deserves a long look from this spot. (7) CUTUP HANOVER has been facing tons better and must be included.

Race 5

(6) TIRADE HANOVER has been a disappointment this year after banking 500K as a 2 and 3-year-old; he's got the speed to contend here. (1) MOST WANTED LINDY ships down from Vernon and joins the Brainard barn; gelding needs to get away alertly in this added-distance event. (2) CURRENT CAST was facing better when last seen here.

Race 6

(1) CARD SHOCK was a solid second last out to Best Said, who came back to win again impressively last week. This three-year-old looks like lock-city tonight. (3) TITAN DE VIE joins the Buter barn after some live-looking efforts up in Maine. (5) ALWAYS A FLYIN returns locally after breaking his maiden at Philly.

Race 7

(3) BETTOR BUSINESS folded up badly on the lead last out at odds-on but she deserves one more chance at an improved price. (5) FLYING NUN kicked home nicely in her local debut. (1) GORDJUS draws best and can be counted on for a share.

Race 8

(1) STATUS WARRIOR ships back in and had a couple of good efforts here in May; from the rail slot she may be the one to beat. (7) SUPLEMENTAL INCOME is a fringe NYSS player who will be more involved tonight. (4) SOUTHWIND ILLUSION ships up from Harrington where she's been rock-solid in conditioned events.

Race 9

(3) BIG SEA LIGER returns locally off a win at The Meadows and the four-year-old clearly looks sharpest of these. (4) AEQUITAS was in a very tough NW5000 event last week; this is an easier spot. (7) BLIZZARD WARNING raced well here two back for Team Stratton.

Race 10

(1) NATURAL LEDA has been facing NYSS stakes foes and now he debuts for Garcia-Herrera, which is always a good angle. (3) TWIN B TENACIOUS has taken two straight at The Meadowlands in solid fashion. (4) AHEAD OF THE CROWD could land a share with a ground-saving trip.

Race 11

(5) BUSTA MOVE got snapped on the wire after a solid speed try when last at this level; he has some tough ones inside of him but the price might be right. (1) MISSISSIPPI HIPPY took all the money but didn't fire last week; another chance. (2) P H JACKPOT ran second in his local return and he's done plenty of good things over this track in the past.

Race 12

(3) FANTICIPATION returns locally and this three-year-old has obvious ability; she looks as good as any in here. (4) SUPER SOPH returns off a down-the-road win at Saratoga. (2) SCANDALICIOUS ships in for live connections sporting good current form.
 

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World Cup Tu 8Jul 21:00
BrazilvGermany
395.jpg
1084.png
HOMEDRAWAWAY
BBC19/5

23/10

7/4

More markets
RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN BRAZILRECENT FORM
HWHWHDHWHD*HW
Most recent
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  • 2 - 0
  • 4 - 0
  • 3 - 1
HWNWNDNWND*NW
Most recent
position07.26.0.png


KEY STAT: Germany have kept four clean sheets (after 90 minutes) in five matches.

EXPERT VERDICT: An average Brazil side have been carried to the semi-finals by the exploits of Neymar, and with both him and their inspirational captain Thiago Silva missing, Germany can take advantage. Joachim Low’s team are defensively solid, tactically astute, and should have few problems containing a pedestrian Brazilian attack featuring Hulk, Fred and Oscar.

RECOMMENDATION: Germany
2


 

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World Cup We 9Jul 21:00
HollandvArgentina
1843.png
128.jpg
HOMEDRAWAWAY
ITV9/4

11/5

29/10

More markets
RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUESRECENT FORM
HWNWNWNWNWND*
Most recent
position07.26.0.png



  • 0 - 0
  • 1 - 0
  • 1 - 1
  • 2 - 1
HWNWNWNWND*NW
Most recent
position07.26.0.png


KEY STAT: Messi has scored four goals in five matches at this World Cup

EXPERT VERDICT: Holland were impressive in collecting maximum points from a tough group, but have needed stoppage time and penalties to get through the knockouts, and this could be the limit for a mediocre squad. While Argen tina have also laboured through the last two rounds, Lionel Messi has been outstanding, and the stage is set for him to inspire his side to the final.

RECOMMENDATION: Argentina
1


 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $37500 Class Rating: 103

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $22,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 7, 2014 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 7, 2014 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 ELLIPSE 10/1


# 2 TUXEDO RAY 12/1


# 4 SKY ABOVE 4/1


I give the nod to ELLIPSE in this event and is a formidable value bet given the line at 10/1. Should compete soundly in the early speed clash which bodes well with this group. McMahon has a strong winning percentage with horses moving in turf sprint races. I can't pass on this gelding given one of the top jock and conditioner combos on the grounds. TUXEDO RAY - With a nice class fig average of 105, has one of the strongest class advantages in this field. This gelding has to be given consideration just off the earnings per start in turf sprint events alone. SKY ABOVE - Posted a formidable Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is a strong contender based on figures garnered as of late under today's conditions.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 RAVEN'S TALE (ML=9/5)


RAVEN'S TALE - Faced tougher last out at Parx Racing. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front runner facing sluggish sorts today. Ranks uppermost in earnings per race. A solid try right here can increase the lifetime total.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPRICKETT (ML=5/2), #5 CONMAN (ML=7/2), #2 QUITO KID (ML=5/1),

SPRICKETT - Would have to get much more than the morning line odds of 5/2 to bet on this racer. CONMAN - This horse likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually win. Forget the top spot. QUITO KID - Finished third in his most recent performance with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 RAVEN'S TALE is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Suffolk Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9200 Class Rating: 64

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 7 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 KALLIES KRUISIN 8/5


# 4 AULT STREET 4/1


# 2 SWEET BAGUETTE 8/1


I lean toward KALLIES KRUISIN here. Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. Looks competitive to be up on the lead at the first call. Should be given consideration - I like the figs from the last affair. AULT STREET - Vail has a win percentage of 22 over the last 30 days. In fine fettle, and coming right back again this time out. SWEET BAGUETTE - She has posted respectable figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this field. She has decent class ratings, averaging 75, and has to be given a shot in here.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Suffolk Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:12pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,100 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MOON SCAMPER (ML=5/2)


MOON SCAMPER - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +20. This jockey/conditioner duet has done well together over the last year. This filly is in good form. Ended up third on Jun 21st.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PROUD INK (ML=2/1), #2 RHONDA K (ML=3/1), #4 SHE'SJUSTBUSINESS (ML=9/2),

PROUD INK - You believe this horse is going to be first just because she's always close. Just doesn't get the job done regularly. RHONDA K - This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings. SHE'SJUSTBUSINESS - Ran inconsistently on Jun 30th. Be leery this time out. 9/2 odds isn't enough for this horse when examining the most recent outings.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 MOON SCAMPER is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 3:10 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$4000 - N/W $300 P/S L/6 OR P/S IN 2014 $6000 P/C L/S AE: N/W 7 PM LT AE: $7500 CLM W/A TRACKMAN SELECTIONS:1-5-7-4 J DEVAUX 1 OVER 5,6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 CORONATIONS K 1/1



# 5 CIVIL CAUSE 5/1



# 7 TYREE'S TREASURE 8/1



CORONATIONS K will have you running to the cashier's window this time. Many selectors know speed is of the utmost importance. This entrant has credentials with a 79 avg statistic. It's dangerous to consider on class alone, but this horse has among the most competitive class markings of the pack. That 76 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent contest puts this solid standardbred in the mix in here. CIVIL CAUSE - Could unquestionably take this group of horses given the 75 speed rating achieved in his last competition. TYREE'S TREASURE - Appears that this harness racer's running style fits well in this race. Quite possibly will be there at the finish. Not many knocks against this horse, let's give her a shot.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delaware Park (3rd) Isolation Road, 4-1
(7th) Mary's Mystique, 7-2


Finger Lakes (3rd) Destinys Mystery, 4-1
(4th) Tactical Pal, 5-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Don't Insist, 3-1
(5th) Auston Got Even, 4-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Schist, 5-1
(6th) Citizen Kat, 9-2

Presque Isle Downs (1st) Thunder Harbor, 4-1
(2nd) Spunk, 4-1


Suffolk Downs (7th) Sunny Forest, 3-1
(8th) Kaiser's d'Light, 9-2
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Tioga Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 7:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 85

- Purse:$6000 - N/W $4,500

CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 FOOLS GOLD 5/2



# 1 YANKEES IN SIX 7/2



# 4 BELLATOR 8/1



The consensus in this event is that FOOLS GOLD is the one to beat. His 87 average has this horse among the most favorable speed ratings in this event. This standardbred has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 90 average class stat. Should play well in this one. This entrant achieved a very good speed rating last out. Looks to be going well to come right back. YANKEES IN SIX - Take a look at this standardbred's average speed rating of 87 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very nice wager. Been battling with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 88). BELLATOR - Not many folks know, but the 4 position here at Tioga Downs has been top notch for a better than expected win percent.
 
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Dave Cokin

Monday Bonus Play 8:10 PM MLB

(905) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at (906) MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Take: (905) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +105

The Phillies are a medicare entry this season, and they’re not in good current form. Thus, it’s dicey to align oneself with them under any conditions right now. But the one pitcher on their staff who can’t still be backed with confidence is on the hill tonight, as lefty Cole Hamels toes the rubber at Milwaukee.

Hamels has had some ridiculously lousy luck this season. The fact he’s won just twice in 14 starts, considering the consistently solid quality of his efforts, is hard to believe. About the only knock on Hamels this season has been a slightly elevated walk rate. Everything else stamps him as a still totally legit high end rotation component, and his consistency has been ultra-impressive.

Marco Estrada gets the call for Milwaukee tonight, and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Estrada’s fly ball tendencies have gotten him into real trouble this year, and there’s no way to understate the fact he’s now surrendered a whopping 26 bombs in only 102 innings of work. The good news for Estrada is that the likely Phillies lineup he’s going to face tonight hasn’t done a great deal of damage in past encounters, but I wouldn’t bet against Estrada getting taken deep once or twice tonight.

The other numbers here all favor Milwaukee, which isn’t surprising based on the standings. So I’m not arguing with the Brewers being favored tonight. Making the Phillies chalk would be an overcompensation for the starting pitchers. But at the same time, it needs to be noted that the Brew Crew is in a bit of a funk offensively. They crossed home plate only five times in a weekend set at Cincinnati, and the Brewers are in a 1-5 rut over their last six games.

I think the timing is right to go ahead and take a shot against Milwaukee here. This team has played outstanding baseball all season, but they aren’t doing so right now, and getting healthy against the likes of Hamels isn’t very likely. Estrada has a winning record, but he’s clearly the second best starting pitcher in this battle. I’m going to side with the Phillies to finally reward Hamels with a win tonight.
 

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