Sucker Bets: Settling the debate once and for all
By JASON LOGAN
“Oh that’s a sucker bet if I ever saw one.”
Chances are, at one point in your handicapping history, you’ve heard something similar spill from the lips of an acquaintance, casual onlooker or fellow sportsbook patron. Perhaps even you muttered the phrase yourself, absolutely sure that money placed on that particular wager was headed down the drain.
The term “Sucker Bet” actually has its own Wikipedia page. The entry is pretty quick and dirty, giving a definition of the term as well as some examples of what some may consider sucker bets. But, as you know, you shouldn’t believe everything you read on Wikipedia.
Much like beauty, a sucker bet is in the eye of the beholder. That makes it nearly impossible to pin down.
Sure, the guy who just watched the first game of his three-team parlay go up in smoke will tell you “parlays are for suckers”. But the fellow at the other end of the book just hit a six-teamer and is narrowing down catchy names for the new boat he’s going to buy.
In order to settle the debate over so-called “Sucker Bets” once and for all, we polled some Expert handicappers and asked them whether or not the wagers listed below are suitable selections for sports bettors or – DAH DAH DAH – dreaded sucker bets.
Big moneyline favorites
VERDICT: OK
Bettors are always weary of big moneyline favorites, which offer little for a lot. But none of the Experts polled gave them the “Sucker Bet” rubber stamp.
These teams or athletes are priced that high for a reason. Some guys won’t play lofty moneyline faves in pro sports, due to the level of parity, but have no issues laying that chalk when it comes to college kids. There is a wider gap between the elite college programs and everyone else.
Another sport in which wiseguys don’t mind betting big is boxing, where you often see favorites climb to -900 and above. It should be noted that for the most part, the only people who can afford to bet those big boxing faves are the sharps. The public almost always leans to the discount underdog.
Parlays
VERDICT: SUCKER BET
Oh shit! We’re about to open up a can of worms. The times they are a-changin’ and many professional bettors are now working parlays into their normal rotation of games. But, when you break it down, the parlay is still a “square” play, according to many.
“Locals in Vegas often like parlays because of the immediate 10/1 payout on a four-team hit. But if you took a different approach and started with that $10 wager, let your winnings ride and hit four consecutive games, you would have $160 in your pocket on four winners, or plus $150,” says Expert Art Aronson. “The winning four-team parlay would increase your bankroll by only $100. Plus, with a parlay you are locked into taking the odds offered at one book rather than being able to shop around for the best lines.”
But before you go scrolling down to the comment section to put us on blast, there are situations where a parlay is a very smart way to double up your winnings.
Expert Steve Merril suggests a parlay in those games in which you think the side and total are correlated – like if you think a basketball team will cover by slowing down the pace, then parlay them with the Under. Merril does point out that not all sportsbooks will allowing to tie plays together from the same game though.
Teasers
VERDICT: Draw
Almost every handicapper turned their nose up at the idea of teasers – with a notable exception following each response. Teasing NFL key numbers. Giving a little to get a half-point hook on key stops like 3 and 7 can be a profitable practice in pro football, especially with NFL odds being the tightest numbers on the board.
“They are no longer sucker bets,” says Expert Power Sports. “My only advice, though, would to still be leery of teasing faves in that -6 to -7 range with the idea that the favorite will obviously win.”
The main argument against teasers as a whole is that you are paying extra to move the lines, and the cost doesn’t justify having to hit both games. Much like parlays, you’d be better off betting individual matchups.
Futures
VERDICT: SUCKER BET
Futures are a fun conversation but not everyone wants to bet them. If you’re getting down on opening futures, you could be tying up a chunk of your bankroll for a year. Major League Baseball futures for the following season come out before this year’s World Series is even over.
There isn’t a lot of value out there for futures bettors either. In most pro sports, it’s a team sitting in the Top 5 on the board that will likely win the championship, so you’ve betting $100 to win $120. Of course, you always read about someone cashing in a crazy futures ticket come NCAA tournament time, but that’s one dude out of all those futures bets.
Every year when the leagues come down to their final four teams, we ask line managers which contenders present the most liability to the futures book. And almost always, they tell us no one. Futures are an easy winner for sportsbooks, which means an easy loser for bettors.
Props
VERDICT: SUCKER BET
From nightly player and team props to the laundry list of alternative wagers available for the Super Bowl, proposition wagers are becoming very popular. And popularity is something sports bettors fear. Oddsmakers are dreaming up more and more props each year, which should be a big flashing red light for bettors.
Some guys see an edge in handicapping player matchups, breaking down how one particular player will do against the defenses. But tell me how the hell do you handicap a coin toss?
There are plenty of outside variables that can impact your prop play, like injuries, weather, or coaching. You may have a lock on Calvin Johnson to win his head-to-head matchup, but if Matt Stafford goes down you can kiss that prop so long. Got a good feeling about a running back? Well his team just went down 21 points in the fourth quarter and won’t be handing the ball off much.
The practice of handicapping player props goes hand-in-hand with the surge in Daily Fantasy Sports. And if you’re going to invest a serious amount of study to player props every Sunday, why not translate those effort to Daily Fantasy?
First/Second half lines
VERDICT: OK
A resounding cheer came up from the Experts when asked about first and second half lines. Even those working for the sportsbooks will tell you they love them some sweet, sweet halftime odds.
Limits are lower, yes, but if you happen to be watching a game and get a good idea of how it will go in the second half, you have an edge over the oddsmakers scrambling to set halftime lines for a full slate of action all going into the break at once. Those low limits are a perfect indication that books are vulnerable to these types of offerings.
“There can often be fantastic value, particularly when it comes to second half lines as the market overreacts to first half results,” says Expert Sean Murphy.
Grand Salami
VERDICT: SUCKER BET
Some of you are more than familiar with the big, dirty salami. Some are virgins, this being the first time you’ve ever heard of it.
Basically, it’s the Over/Under for a sports’ entire card that day. It’s very popular with baseball bettors, who love to breakdown the totals and pitching matchups day-to-day. The only issue with the Salami is that one off game can tank your wager. Too many variables involved and not enough payout.
