Monday 7/4/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dig into these Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds
By ANDREW CALEY

The 4th of July is here and that means a few things.

Cold beers, barbecues, fireworks (please don't hold them for too long, as Jason Pierre Paul will tell you in his new PSA) and of course, Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Competitors teeth to teeth, racing to completely consume as many hot dogs as they can in 10 minutes, that is, without yakking.

This year's contest is especially intriguing, with former champion, Joey Chestnut out for revenge.

Chestnut lost his title after an eight-year reign, when top ranked competitive eater Matt Stonie seemingly came out of nowhere to claim the title of top dog (pun intended).

Despite the fact that Stonie is the No. 1 ranked competitive eater in the world, he still comes into this year's competition as the, no pun intended, underdog. Stonie is currently on the board at +116 to win the 2016 Men's main event, while Chestnut is listed at -136 to regain his title, according to sportsbooks. Stonie is the owner of 18 competitive eating records.

Last year, Stonie defeated Chestnut by devouring 62 dogs to Chestnut's 61, but that number was well below the total set by sportsbooks of 66.5. This year the total is set at 65.5, with the Over currently the favorite at -150. The under is on the board at +123.

While the total number of hot dogs eaten has gone Under the number the last two years, the Over has actually gone 7-3 in the last 10 years per sportsbooks. So with revenge on the mind of the former champ and young champion looking to create his own legacy, it's no surprise the Over is the favorite here.

So while you enjoy your 4th of July festivities this weekend with a wide variety of BBQ fare, maybe leave the competitive eating to the professionals. But that doesn't mean you can't place a bet and pick a wiener.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot dog eating action report: Bounce back year for Joey Chestnut?
By PATRICK EVERSON

Let it never be said that Scott Kaminsky doesn’t do his homework. The general manager of an offshore sportsbook has been a staple in the industry for decades, with a well-earned reputation as a sharp oddsmaker, be it in football, basketball or...competitive eating?

Well, yeah, why not? If that’s what the dog days of summer serve up, then Kaminsky figures he might as well put up numbers for the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, which takes place Monday in Coney Island, N.Y. And you can’t put up numbers without some due diligence, lest the bettors eat you alive.

“Out of all the action reports I’ve done, this is the one I know more about and have confidence in what I’m saying,” Kaminsky said Saturday evening, about 40 hours before the July 4 frankfurter festival.

For several years, Joey Chestnut has dominated the Nathan’s contest and much of the rest of the competitive eating world (yes, there are many events). But last year, Chestnut’s eight-year title run on Coney Island came to an end at the hands, er, mouth of fellow American Matt Stonie, who downed 62 dogs in 10 minutes, two more than the defending champion.

“2015 was a horrible year for Joey Chestnut,” Kaminsky said. “The previous year, he got engaged at the contest, then his engagement fell apart before last year’s contest and was probably the reason he tanked. He had a horrible Fourth of July. It’s a year he wants to try to forget.”

Kaminsky’s research seems to indicate Chestnut will do just that and reclaim his throne as the king of the wieners.

“He’s been in training this year, he’s lost weight and improved his cardio, which is worth three hot dogs,” Kaminsky astutely estimated. “He’s coming off a record-setting contest a week-and-a-half ago in Washington, D.C. He downed 73.5 hot dogs.”

That broke his old mark of 69, set in the 2013 Nathan’s contest, when Chestnut nabbed his seventh consecutive championship. Chestnut’s rebound has Kaminsky posting him as a -160 favorite over Stonie, who’s at +140, with the field a hefty +850.

Kaminsky set the total at 65.5 dogs consumed. The over is -170, and the under +150.

“We’re trying to drive money on the under and against Chestnut,” Kaminsky said, noting two-time defending women’s champion Miki Sudo is -220, with the field +170.

Chestnut is currently second in the Major League Eating rankings – yes, that’s a real league, and it has actual rankings – behind his archrival Stonie. But the odds seem to suggest that Chestnut will again be top dog by day’s end on the Fourth of July.

“He is focused this year and on a mission to get his title back,” Kaminsky said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Monday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a Monday with plenty of racing and a solid 10-race card on tap at Belmont Park that features a pair of stakes races, the $100,000 State Dinner and the $100,000 Manila.

The State Dinner goes off as the fourth race on the card today with a field of six going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The race is restricted to four-year-olds and upward which have not won a stake this year.

The Michelle Nevin trained Touchofstarquality is the 8-5 morning line favorite and will break from the rail with Jose Ortiz aboard. The gelding took Alw-3 optional claimers gate to wire last out earning a career top Beyer Speed Figure of 100.

His main foes will be the Todd Pletcher trained Comfort (2-1) who beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out in his first start off a 6 ½ month layoff, and Elnaawi, who was third last out in the Brooklyn (G2) for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

The feature on Monday is the Manilla which drew a field of seven that will go one mile on the turf. As you can see below I am going with the Christophe Clement trained Top Discreet (7-2) who is coming off a sharp win in the Paradise Creek over the Belmont Park turf at seven furlongs and should not have a problem handling the extra furlong here.

After today’s Belmont Park card will take three days off and will be back in Action on Friday.


Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#4 Benny Big Boy 5-2
#7 The Great Samurai 6-1
#6 Ardmore Bay 6-1
#5 Jegos Fire 5-1

Analysis: Benny Big Boy makes his debut for the Schettino barn that is 14% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. This colt is by Eskendereya out of the Wild Again mare Baymont ($189,246, four-time winner on turf) that has dropped four winners and three of them have won on turf, one stakes winner, top earner Mr Rosenthal ($273,461). Solid works on the morning tab and catches a below average looking group of state breds here.

The Great Samurai was off poorly in his debut and finished evenly in a fourth place finish, placed third via a DQ while no match for an 8 3/4 length winner going 5 1/2 on the main track. He was dismissed on the tote at 34-1 but Donk does not win first out very often. He is out of a stakes placed Distorted Humor mare that has dropped two winners including one turf winner. A better start and this guy figures to move forward.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 4,7 / 4,5,6,7 / 2,4,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 The Manila (5:45 ET)
#1 Too Discreet 7-2
#2 Giant Run 5-1
#3 Life Imitates Art 5-2
#8 Strike Midnight 5-1

Analysis: Too Discreet gets the call and it is tough to separate the top five in here. Our top pick is coming off a win in the seven-furlong Paradise Creek in his second start off an eight-month layoff. The colt came up short in his lone route, but that was in the Woodhaven where he weakened to finish fourth off the bench. He has plenty of pedigree to handle more ground, by Discreet Cat out of the stakes winner To Marquet ($198,236) that has dropped three other turf winners and two other stakes winners, top earner Discreet Marq ($1.2 million), a seven-time winner on turf.

Giant Run chased the early pace and weakened late to finish third in the Penn Mile (G3) last out behind a good one in Catch a Glimpse. It took five tries for this guy to break his maiden but he has run well in four stakes including winning the Cutler Bay and running a good second in the palm Beach (G3) in his first go against winners.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,3,8
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,3,8 / 1,2,3,6,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #3 Country Money 8-1
R3: #3 Gaming 8-1
R4: #4 Allied Air Raid 10-1
R6: #4 Cyclgenisis 12-1
R7: #1 Summer Relevation 12-1
R8: #2 Tiz Town 10-1
R10: #7 Katie Ice 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Grand River Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$4000 - HORSES & GELDINGS - N/W $1500. LAST 3


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 B N BAD 5/1


# 3 PACIFIC OAK 9/2


# 4 DREYDL HANOVER 5/2


B N BAD looks formidable to best this grouping. This entrant may have some hidden form, a victory would be a pleasant surprise. There is a very good chance that this race horse will improve with the change in medication back on Lasix. This solid standardbred has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 83 avg class figure. Should play well for this race. PACIFIC OAK - You have to back a horse that likes to win, very attractive win percent. DREYDL HANOVER - The handicapping team noted a very strong outing out of this solid standardbred last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to end up in the winner's circle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Scioto Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 3:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 61 - Purse:$40000 - OHIO SIRES STAKES 2 YEAR OLD COLTS 1ST LEG OHIO LOTTERY RACE OF THE DAY C.PAGE LISTED 5-6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 7 ROSE RUN SPANKY 9/2


# 8 STAR BUSTER 3/1


# 6 BUCKEYE BOSS 4/1


ROSE RUN SPANKY will have you running to the cashier's window in this contest. This race could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed figure will confirm that. Very likely the class of the race with an average rating of 68. A nice pick. STAR BUSTER - Has very nice TrackMaster Speed Ratings and most definitely has to be considered for a bet this time. Don't miss a tremendous equipment angle. Horse is second time hoppled for today's race. BUCKEYE BOSS - Could best this group, just look at the TrackMaster speed fig - 66 - from his last race. Always tremendous driver-trainer team. 31 percent winners when they work together.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oak Tree at Pleasanton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 82

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 ROMANCEMEDISCRETLY 8/1


# 2 BEAUTIFUL DREAMER 3/1


# 4 GO TO THE ALTER 10/1


ROMANCEMEDISCRETLY looks formidable to best this group and is a respectable value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Her 75 average has this mare with among the best Equibase speed figs for this race. Entrants trained by Wong in dirt sprint races are typically reliable. With a strong 88 Equibase speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. BEAUTIFUL DREAMER - Recently Alvarado has been scorching which may give the edge to this filly. Looks strong versus this field and will almost certainly be one of the front-runners. GO TO THE ALTER - When McLean uses Gonzalez there's a good chance for profits.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 109

DR. JAMES PENNY MEMORIAL S. - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $200 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, $400 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $600 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $200,000 GUARANTEED. THE WINNER TO RECEIVE $120,000 WITH $40,000 TO SECOND, $22,000 TO THIRD, $12,000 TO FOURTH AND $6,000 TO FIFTH. WEIGHT; THREE-YEAR 119 LBS,


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TAMMY THE TORPEDO 7/2


# 7 KEYSTONE KELLY 12/1


# 5 ZIPESSA 3/1


I give the nod to TAMMY THE TORPEDO here. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Speed Figures (104 average) at today's distance and surface recently. I like the jockey on this filly - decent chance to win the race. With a strong 112 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. ZIPESSA - With Geroux aboard her, this filly will most likely be able to break out quickly in here. Ran a strong last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 3:35pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#12 RINGOLD (ML=9/2)
#9 YOUNG DUDE (ML=8/1)
#6 INTREPID CITIZEN (ML=6/1)


RINGOLD - This trainer brings horses to the grass conditioned properly and ready to go, winning over 20 percent of the time under similar conditions. Ran a speedy time for the last quarter on Jun 24th at Pimlico. Anything close right here should get the job done. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the grass. This one has the highest average class figure in the group. YOUNG DUDE - Jock hops back on board after getting to know the magnificent animal by riding in the last race. That's always a good to see. When this rider and trainer join forces you have to take a look. Serpa and Daniels have been fabulous together. INTREPID CITIZEN - I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a strong outing within the last thirty days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LEGENDARY KING (ML=7/2), #7 LIGHTNING ELECTRIC (ML=4/1), #5 KOWBOY KING (ML=9/2),

LEGENDARY KING - Mediocre speed rating last out at Pimlico at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event. LIGHTNING ELECTRIC - Granted the last race was nice, finishing fourth. The lack of any recent activity raises some concerns though. This questionable contender has been a bummer for the bettors as the favorite time and time again. Finished fourth in his most recent performance with a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field. KOWBOY KING - Tough for anyone who saw this steed in his last event to play him in today's event. Disappointing speed rating in the last race at Pimlico at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this horse will improve too much in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - RINGOLD - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top Power Rating by at least 5 points.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #12 RINGOLD to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
12 with [6,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [6,9,12] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[6,9,12] with [6,9,12] with [2,6,7,9,12] with [2,6,7,9,12] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[6,9,12] with [6,9,12] with [2,6,9,12] with [2,3,6,7,9,12] with [2,3,6,7,9,12] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Ellis Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:18pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 SKY BLUE MONGOLIA (ML=6/1)
#4 PIONEER JUSTICE (ML=4/1)


SKY BLUE MONGOLIA - This gelding is in superb physical condition right now. Finished third in the last race and comes back soon. Utilizing this rider/handler combination is a good choice. I like this gelding. Has the uppermost earnings per start in today's event. PIONEER JUSTICE - Ran in the last race against much better company at Churchill Downs. The move to a lower level should suit him well. Sub-par try last time around the track at Churchill Downs was due to the off-going (he ended up fifth). Will do better in today's race on a fast track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ELLIO (ML=3/1), #3 BOOMER SIX (ML=7/2), #2 SUNDAY SAINT (ML=5/1),

ELLIO - Don't think this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's Equibase class figure. SUNDAY SAINT - Hard to play any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the chance.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 SKY BLUE MONGOLIA is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #9 - BELMONT PARK - 5:45 PM EASTERN POST


The Manila Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#7 VOLUNTARIO
#6 DIG DEEP
#2 GIANT RUN
#1 TOO DISCREET

Well folks ... any list of the best American grass horses of all time would be incomplete without Hall of Famer Manila. Belmont Park was where the Leroy Jolley trainee made his graded stakes debut, in the G2 Saranac for owner B. M. Shannon. It would be one of just three defeats he'd ever experience on the lawn. Manila was back at Belmont the following year to take the G1 Turf Classic during a phenomenal campaign that earned him an Eclipse Award. Here in the 3rd running of this stakes test, #7 VOLUNTARIO has hit the board in each of his last five starts, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start. #6 DIG DEEP, a 9-2 shot, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in four of his respective last five starts, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his 2nd and 3rd races back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 7/4 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


20-CENT PICK 5: 3,5,7,9/5,6/ALL/2,3/2,3 = $44.80

EARLY PICK 4: 2,3/2,3/3,4,6,7/5 = $16

LATE PICK 4: 5/4/1,4/4,5,6,8 = $8

MEET STATS: 176 - 530 / $949.70 BEST BETS: 31 - 50 / $104.60

SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 49 / $49.20

Best Bet: DOMITIAN HALL (7th)

Spot Play: NICHOLAS RYAN (8th)


Race 1

(5) MERCHANDISER used an aggressive approach to beat similar in a new life's mark last week and he can double up here if he is put into the race early again. (3) LEAN HANOVER used a similar approach as the choice to beat easier but this gelding likely has some upside and he should be dangerous here. (7) GIANT MUSCLES takes advantage when the late pace slows and would benefit if some early battling took place this time. (9) SASS blew up at the start of his last after looking bumpy-gaited in some of his previous miles. He can be a contender if he stays flat, but that is hard to predict.

Race 2

(5) CALVIN K was patiently driven in his debut but had plenty of pace to offer when called upon. He can likely shave a few seconds off here, if needed. (6) THE DARK SHADOW did most of the work in his debut win and is the obvious one to beat having paced the fastest mile as well. (3) BRAVE WORLD has finished quickly in all of his qualifiers and should make the ticket - at least - in this debut race. (1) SHADOW ROUGE also finished well in his qualifiers and can hang around for a slice here.

Race 3

(1) SPORTS COLUMN was flying late in a quick debut mile and with the better draw here can be expected to move earlier; slight nod. (3) CLASSIC PRO - a $45K Harrisburg sale purchase - is a 1/2 to $454K earner Devil Child who has 10 wins and a mark of 1:49 3/5 to date; using. (4) MANCEIEVER - a $47K Harrisburg buy - has an experience edge over many of these and is another to consider for multi-race bets. (2) TYMAL PEACEMAKER is the second foal to race from his dam - the first was a 16-time winner that took a mark of 1:54 3/5 on a half-mile track. He's another you can use in this wide-open dash.

Race 4

(2) WESTERN SHORELINE paced one of his better miles last time despite finishing only seventh. He should get a more aggressive drive here and can do in this suspect field. (3) LIBRADO HANOVER also showed improvement last time and finished ahead of the choice. He is another - and one of many - to consider for multi-race tickets here. (7) EINHORN can be erratic, but, if he is right he fits here. His qualifier was okay and he adds Lasix; consider. (6) WINE SHARK brings good form in from out of town making his first start off a claim. His good early speed gives him a chance here.

Race 5

(3) MAJOR MUSCLE couldn't stick with Caprice Hill last time, but these are easier and she stands a much better chance of notching her second win of the season here. (2) DAYLINER continues to race well, should get positioned better early here and is the main threat to the choice. (4) DOTTIE was sharp in defeat last Tuesday when only overtaken very late in the mile. She isn't out of this. (1) RECREATE was a game first-over winner vs. weaker and he could be good for a slice here despite the class rise.

Race 6

(7) SIERRA MADRE went two big trips from 10-holes now moves into a better post off the claim; slight nod. (4) INTENDED STYLE was loaded and flying late last week and also goes first off the claim here. He should be right there vs. these. (6) CS EYE was rated better last time and managed to last. He is the main speed threat. (3) TOPCORNERTERROR has a better shot of passing these late with the move to a better post. He is another to consider here.

Race 7

It's pretty hard to pick against (5) DOMITIAN HALL off his Canadian season's record mile last week, so I won't. A short price is inevitable, however. (1) YOURE MAJESTIC couldn't hang with the choice late last week and looks like the most obvious to complete the exacta again here. (7) RAMAS LAST SON hasn't missed the board since April and should continue that streak here. (9) LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE will be closing from far back for a share.

Race 8

(4) NICHOLAS RYAN goes for the potent Menary/Jamieson combo off the claim after racing tough first-over last week; top call. (5) LOVEDANCINWITHYOU brings some solid form in from Grand River and fits well here; for a share. (2) SURPRISE HANOVER will trip out in the pocket and win one of these weeks; maybe this time? (7) BLISSFUL YEARS is capable of showing more at a price here with the drop to the bottom class.

Race 9

(4) RISE UP RISE UP kept coming last week to take a new life's mark. He can double up here as the likely second choice in the wagering. (1) BLENHEIM is obviously the one to beat but he will be overbet off his miles in the Goodtimes and he is no lock. (2) DEEP IMPACT was one of the better local rookie trotters last year. Look for him to close late for a piece here as he tunes up for upcoming sires stakes action. (7) ELDORADO OF GOLD rarely misses a check and could better this prediction if he can clear quickly at the start.

Race 10

(6) CLASSIC VENTURE made two moves in the fastest mile trotted by an aged trotting horse in Canada this season last week. He should be prominent throughout here. (4) EXEMPLAR drops and gets Filion back; using. (8) ETRUSCAN HANOVER was just short in this class last time and is another to throw onto late Pick 4 tickets. (5) O NARUTAC PERFETTO is trying to break a string of fourth-place finishes here and just might succeed vs. these. (10) CALL ME RICHARD shoots for four straight shipping in from the B tracks but the outer post and tougher company likely limits him to a smaller share here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 7/4 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 145 - 642 / $934.60 BEST BETS: 15 - 64 / $67.20

Best Bet: SHINOBU HANOVER (11th)

Spot Play: BRIANSTOTHEFRONT (3rd)


Race 1

(2) NOTA FOOL BLUECHIP gets post relief and could be ready for fire at his best. (4) MYMEGARICHMOTHRNLO flashed speed at Pocono last out. (5) ROCKNROLL FAN could land a share.

Race 2

(2) HEAVENLY KOUTTAR Sophomore filly moves to the 2-hole and that should help her cause; gets the call for first pari-mutuel score. (4) LIVE ODDS was sent down the road last out for all the glory. (1) KILLALY did not have enough gas in the tank and had to settle for show money recently.

Race 3

(2) BRIANSTOTHEFRONT was strong for the placing in his last try; ready to boss these. (3) CONCUR put in good speed against Sire Stakes foes last out. (7) CORBA JOE will be closing in the final strides.

Race 4

(1) CARLOS DANGER should get a better trip from the fence given a favorable drive. (2) TOM HILL rallied strongly to grab the victory in his last start. (4) JANN AND DEAN took the pocket route in a dead heat for win last out.

Race 5

(1) MAJOR MILLIE moves down the ladder and gets post relief; can top these at her best. (3) KEYSTONE PAULA came down the lane to take home top prize last time around. (5) ROCK ME BABY fits well in here and could make some noise.

Race 6

(4) ANGS DELIGHT put in a nice run at Tioga last out; can get the job done with a well rated trip. (5) WELL WELL WELL was quite good for the place spot in his initial trip here. (1) DO OVER HANOVER could have a say from the fence.

Race 7

(3) ENDEAVOR is on the dropdown and the 3-hole can get this gelding back into the winner's circle. (7) GAIUS CRASTINUS got the job done last out via the pocket route. (2) JK HEAVEN SENT has tactical speed and could have a say in the outcome.

Race 8

(7) SINGLE ME is knocking at the door based on her last three starts; poised to boss these. (4) NO CLOUDS BLUECHIP leaves the sire stakes ranks and this seems to be a better spot. (3) MOTU MOONBEAM N has wheeled off two straight victories.

Race 9

(2) A BETTOR HAT closed strongly to nail down the show spot last time out and this gelding is heading in the right direction. (4) FAMEOUS WESTERN has flashed good speed in his last two outings. (3) WINDSUN STETSON took down top prize at Pocono last time around.

Race 10

(2) SHORTSTACKED should be ready to fire his best from the 2-hole and Brennan keeps the faith. (6) TRACK MASTER D got the job done wire to window last out. (1) EMPEROR MONTANA N put in a mild rally for third in his most recent trip.

Race 11

(2) SHINOBU HANOVER showed good pace in his last start and this gelding has every right to move forward against these. (6) ELWELL needs a better trip than in his last start; quite possible. (1) ARTS DRAGON should make some noise from the fence; maybe.

Race 12

(3) SPORTSKEEPER came down the center of the track to get the job done last time out and this 4-year-old gelding is very capable of taking down another. (2) JJ FLYNN was sent down the road in his last one for all the glory. (4) FERNANDO HANOVER did not race badly in his latest at Pocono; watch out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington Park (4th) Heart Stopper, 3-1
(7th) Hart Hills Road, 7-2

Belmont Park (2nd) Arctic King, 6-1
(10th) Dream On, 8-1


Belterra Park (1st) Majestic Image, 4-1
(7th) Clampet Girl, 7-2


Canterbury Park (3rd) Warrior's Kid, 8-1
(8th) Da's Legacy, 7-2


Delaware Park (6th) Xtra Blue, 8-1
(9th) My Adeline, 9-2

Ellis Park (5th) Stormin Greeley, 6-1
(7th) Warrior's Club, 7-2


Finger Lakes (2nd) Hammerhead, 6-1
(4th) Sal's Dream, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (4th) Key the Storm, 7-2
(7th) Strongbow, 6-1


Laurel Park (1st) First Dance, 6-1
(5th) Kowboy King, 9-2


Lone Star Park (6th) Humor Me Lolly, 3-1
(10th) Marcy, 4-1


Louisiana Downs (2nd) Awesome Aubree, 4-1
(5th) Luna de Plata, 7-2


Monmouth Park (2nd) Royal Cashmere, 6-1
(3rd) My Uncle Sam, 3-1


Oak Tree @ Pleasanton (3rd) Summer Story, 7-2
(4th) Something for Luck, 9-2


Parx Racing (3rd) You're No Saint, 4-1
(9th) Wildcatpleasures, 7-2

Prairie Meadows (8th) You Should Be Here, 6-1
(9th) Itsallaboutyou, 7-2

Presque Isle Downs (1st) Brezno, 9-2
(4th) Lovely Em, 7-2


Santa Anita (3rd) Sidepocket Run, 8-1
(8th) Magic Mark, 7-2


Thistledown (6th) Striking Lass, 7-2
(8th) Exclusive, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Betting: Division Underdogs

Just about half of a team’s 162 game MLB schedule is against division rivals and these games have a lot more meaning to them as team's try to either win a division title or get into the playoffs. If you're going to bet on underdogs, it's a great idea to focus on divisional games as there is extra incentive for team's in these matchups and under the right set of circumstances can deliver big profits.

At this point in the season, divisional home underdogs have won 53 games, lost 86 with a negative impact of -$2045 against the money line. Division road underdogs have walked off winners in 137 and at the wrong end of a decision 167 times. But, the road pooches have been a good choice, stuffing betting accounts to the tune of +$1533. Of course, you can't blindly bet on divisional road underdogs every time and expect to come out ahead in the long run, so let’s take a look at a situation where it favors you.

Our MLB number crunching machine chips in small to medium divisional road underdogs priced between +$1.00 and +$1.50 delivered the goods. In this situation the home favorite essentially has an edge but isn't overly superior meaning the underdog in what is basically a tossup game can easily upset the odds offering good value. In 221 situations so far, division road underdogs in the +$1.00 to +$1.50 range won at a 48.4% clip (107-114) rewarding backers with +$1527 at the betting window.

An even better ROI can be had focusing on fewer plays with less total money at risk. In this situation we want to concentrate strickly on a division road underdog that won the first game of the series and getting little respect in game-two as they won at a 55.3% clip (21-17) cashing +$788 worth of tickets.

While there's no guarantee small to medium divisional road underdogs in the above mentioned situation will continue to perform the rest of the way, the angle is definitely worth keeping an eye-out for.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

July Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

Fireworks and the MLB All-Star game go hand-in-hand during the month of July. It also denotes the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. And as we’ve come to learn the key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff.

Can they sustain or will they unravel like Jose Canseco going back on a fly ball? Stay tuned. What we do know is that certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle on the 4thof July.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of July.

On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in July, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.

And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s July list.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Chen, Wei-Yin - 9-4 (5-1 H)

The Miami left-hander has not been terribly effective with an ERA hovering around 5. If Chen can develop more command, he's shown again this year he's tough when in challenging situations, allowing .186 batting average and .271 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position.

Garza, Matt - 9-3 (5-1 H)

Since coming back from spring training injury on June 14th, the Milwaukee right-hander has been a mix of good and bad, but come through when it counted. Opposing hitters are batting over .300 against Garza, but he's held those runners in check and induced a heavy dose of ground balls that have led to outs. If he continues, this Brewers starter might be effective.

Greinke, Zack - 11-4 (6-2 H)

Though Arizona is falling short of preseason expectations, the Diamondbacks ace is not and, other than Clayton Kershaw, has arguably been as effective as any pitcher since the end of April with batters hitting around .200 against him. Once again his array of pitches are finding the right spots and fastball is cooking!

Kazmir, Scott - 10-5 (6-2 H)

When Kazmir misses on location for fastball, the other team's lineup begins to look for off-speed stuff, which has caused his inconsistency this season. When he's working the corners on the knees early in the count, this sets up secondary pitches. In the past he's done so in July, let's see what he comes up with this time.

*Kershaw, Clayton - 12-3 (8-0 A)

When either Kershaw loses or has a less than stellar performance, which is infrequent, it is home page news on most sports websites. With opponents batting just .185 against him, baseball's best pitcher has close to as many home runs surrendered (6) as walks (9) to start the month over 121 innings. It’s no wonder his name is whispered in the same company as Sandy Koufax.

Kluber, Corey - 13-4 (9-2 H)

Since winning the Cy Young award in 2014, Kluber has not been able to match that magical season, but is part of a very good Cleveland rotation. Looking ahead, if the Indians righty can do a better job than permitting .281 batting averages with runners in scoring position, all his numbers will drop and his victories will go up. Note: Kluber’s numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.

*Liriano, Francisco - 12-2 (7-0 H)

After several fine seasons with Pittsburgh, Liriano has not been effective in 2016. Walks and home runs have done him in and in order to reflect past results of July, he's going to have to stop leaving pitches in the heart of the plate.

Peralta, Wily - 8-4 (5-1 H)

Peralta has been thoroughly ineffective all season (6.68 ERA) and was sent to minors after June 11th start. His return this month or this season depends on his Triple-A results. Note: Peralta’s numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.

Price, David - 11-5 (7-1 A)

To date, the Boston lefty could be described as a mild disappointment, with an ERA north of 4.5 most of the season. No longer owning an upper 90's heater, Price does not blow away as many hitters as before and the fastball lacks some of the previous movement of the past. The slider has not had the usual bite from start to start. Red Sox need this ace to be one.

Ross, Tyson - 10-4 (4-1 H)

Ross has not pitched since he hit the DL with right shoulder inflammation after first start in April. San Diego Union reports a return even this month appears optimistic.
Note: Ross’ numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.

Santana, Ervin - 11-4 (8-1 H)

Like his teammates, Santana is not having a good year, as opposing hitters are clocking him for nearly .300 average, compared to .256 over his 11-year career. Little reason to believe this month will match the past even if he improves with this Twins club.

*Volquez, Edinson - 10-5 (6-1 A)

Never a frontline hurler, Volquez numbers this campaign have matched the Royals, being very ordinary to date. The Dominican Republic native has done the job against right-handed batters, who have been knocking him around for nearly .300 average.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Wood, Alex - 4-8 (0-6 A)

Wood – the only pitcher to appear on the July Bad Month list this season - was initially expected to be shut down for four weeks after landing on the 15-day disabled list at the end of May with a posterior impingement in his throwing elbow. Currently, the timetable is for mid-July return, but the oft-injured pitcher can hardly be counted on as record shows. Note: Wood’’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during July.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How run differential can be the key to cashing MLB runline bets
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Behind yet another incendiary performance from a member of their starting rotation, the white-hot Cleveland Indians matched a franchise record in Thursday night’s 4-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays by winning their 13th consecutive game.

The Tribe’s current winning streak is the longest by any team in Major League Baseball this season as well as the longest run of success the club has strung together since winning 13 straight in 1951.

Thursday’s accolades belonged to 29-year-old righty Carlos Carrasco, who is now 1-0 with a 1.14 ERA, 27 strikeouts and just seven walks in three starts during Cleveland’s 13-game rampage through professional baseball. A rampage, mind you, that has featured the Indians outscoring the opposition 80-26 (+54 run differential), which is good for a winning margin of 4.15 runs per game.

Predictably, gambling twitter immediately responded with some variation of the following data: If you had bet to win $100 on every game Cleveland was listed as a favorite during the team’s current 13-game winning streak and risked $100 on Cleveland when the Indians assumed the underdog position during said streak, you would currently be up $1,337.

That’s a respectable chunk of change for less than two week’s worth of work. But with Cleveland’s moneyline prices beginning to surge due to the team’s recent onslaught against all comers, could you have found a way to turn a similar profit without assuming as much risk?

The answer, of course, is yes. And all you would have had to do was replace your moneyline bets with run line wagers.

For the uninitiated, a run line bet is essentially Major League Baseball’s version of the NFL point spread, with one team listed as a 1.5-run favorite, the other listed as a 1.5-run underdog and corresponding odds attached to both spreads. For example, the Indians were listed as -120 favorites for Thursday night’s game against the Blue Jays (+110) on the moneyline, but were posted at the more appealing price of +130 if you were willing to lay 1.5 runs against Toronto (-150). The benefit is the opportunity to back the better team with less financial risk, while the downside is the fact that Cleveland had to win by two or more runs to cash the run line bet as opposed to simply winning the game by any margin to cash the moneyline ticket.

Since the Indians launched their 13-game tirade against the rest of Major League Baseball back on June 17 in Cleveland against the White Sox, the Tribe have been listed as a moneyline favorite 11 times and run line favorite four times. And if you were to bet to win $100 every time Cleveland was a favorite and risk $100 in each instance the Indians were listed as an underdog, here’s how your portfolio would break down:

13 moneyline bets: 13-0 record, $1,884 risked, $1,337 won

13 run line bets: 11-2 record, $1,468 risked, $1,129 won

By simply substituting run line bets for moneyline bets during Cleveland’s 13-game winning streak, your profits would have dropped by 15.5 percent, but your overall risk assumed would have plummeted by 22.1 percent. That’s not a bad tradeoff when you need to win by two or more runs with a pitching staff that has limited the opposition to just 2.0 runs per game during its 13-game stretch of nothing but victory celebrations.

But here’s the tricky part: It’s easy to come swooping in after a team has won 13 straight matchups and exclaim, “Hey, you should have been betting the run line instead of the moneyline!” After all, hindsight is 20/20. What we need to identify is a way of determining which teams offer the best chance for success when betting the run line.

Thankfully, we have those rankings for you, as well as something else you should be taking into consideration.

Below you will find Major League Baseball’s 30 member organizations ranked by run line winning percentage entering Thursday night’s slate of action. In addition, you’ll notice a number in parenthesis next to each team’s record. That number represents the run differential ranking for each club entering Thursday night as well. For example, when you see a (6) next to the Texas Rangers, you’ll know that Texas ranks sixth in MLB in run differential.

1. Texas Rangers: 52-28 (6)
2. Baltimore Orioles: 46-31 (7)
3. San Diego Padres: 46-33 (25)
4. Detroit Tigers: 45-34 (15)
5. Chicago Cubs: 44-34 (1)
6. Kansas City Royals: 44-34 (18)
7. Cleveland Indians: 43-35 (2)
8. Colorado Rockies: 42-36 (16)
9. Oakland A’s: 42-36 (23)
10. St. Louis Cardinals: 41-37 (4)
11. Washington Nationals: 42-38 (3)
12. Milwaukee Brewers: 40-38 (26)
13. Toronto Blue Jays: 41-40 (11)
14. Boston Red Sox: 39-39 (5)
15. Miami Marlins: 39-39 (14)
16. San Francisco Giants: 39-41 (8)
17. Philadelphia Phillies: 39-41 (27)
18. Cincinnati Reds: 39-41 (30)
19. Chicago White Sox: 38-41 (17)
20. Seattle Mariners: 37-41 (10)
21. Houston Astros: 37-42 (12)
22. Los Angeles Dodgers: 37-44 (9)
23. Arizona Diamondbacks: 37-44 (21)
24. Pittsburgh Pirates: 36-43 (19)
25. Minnesota Twins: 35-43 (29)
26. Atlanta Braves: 34-44 (28)
27. New York Yankees: 34-44 (20)
28. Tampa Bay Rays: 32-46 (22)
29. Los Angels Angels: 32-47 (24)
30. New York Mets: 30-48 (13)

The first question you may be asking yourself is, “Why run differential?” That’s an excellent inquiry. Essentially, we want to look at each team’s run differential to give us an idea of which squads have the firepower to consistently cover 1.5 runs while also examining which clubs get blown out on a regular basis. As you’ll notice in the rankings above, five of the top ten run line clubs (Rangers, Orioles, Cubs, Indians and Cardinals) also rank within the top ten in run differential, while five of the bottom ten run line clubs (Angels, Rays, Braves, Twins and Diamondbacks) also rank within the bottom ten in run differential. So based on this simple correlation alone, we’ve discovered that a third of the league’s run line record matches up with its run differential ranking.

One team to keep an eye on moving forward in regards to run line wagering is the Philadelphia Phillies, who have lost 28 of their last 39 games after commencing the season with a 24-17 record. What’s intriguing about Philadelphia is that despite winning just 43.8 percent of their contests this season, the 2008 World Champions are a shocking 18-9 (.666) in one-run games in 2016. That type of performance in one-run affairs is extremely difficult to sustain over the course of a 162-game season, so don’t be surprised if the Phillies exhibit a regression in that department in the very near future.

As for the Indians, who knows when Cleveland’s starting rotation will hit a rough patch and regress to the mean. After all, this club hasn’t lost since the Cavaliers defeated the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB roundup: Strasburg throws hitless ball in return win
By The Sports Xchange

WASHINGTON -- Stephen Strasburg did not allow a hit or run in 6 2/3 innings and Danny Espinosa had four hits, including two homers, and six RBIs as the first-place Washington Nationals slugged a season-high six homers to crush the last-place Cincinnati Reds 12-1 on Sunday.
Strasburg, who came off the disabled list before the game, had not allowed a hit when manager Dusty Baker pulled him after throwing 109 pitches with two outs into the seventh and a runner on third. Blake Treinen came on to pitch with the score 9-0 and retired Billy Hamilton on a grounder to end the inning.
Strasburg (11-0, 2.71 ERA), who struck out five and walked four, is the last qualifying starter in the majors who does not have a loss. He has won 14 games in a row dating back to last year and is the first National League starter to begin the year 11-0 since Andy Hawkins of the San Diego Padres in 1985.

Mets 14, Cubs 3
NEW YORK -- Wilmer Flores tied a franchise record with six hits and his homer leading off the second inning launched a seven-run outburst that lifted New York over Chicago and a sweep of the four-game series.
Flores had an RBI single later in the second, a single in the fourth, a two-run homer in the fifth and singles in the seventh and eighth. The second six-hit game in franchise history -- Edgardo Alfonzo achieved the feat on Aug. 30, 1999 -- raised Flores' average from .224 to .255.
The Mets outscored the Cubs 32-11 in a rematch of last year's National League Championship Series, which New York also swept in four games.

Blue Jays 17, Indians 1
TORONTO -- Russell Martin had five RBIs, Troy Tulowitzki added four RBIs, left-hander J.A. Happ struck out a season-best 11 in seven innings and Toronto defeated Cleveland .
Happ (11-3) allowed five hits and one run to win his fifth straight start and give the Blue Jays a split in the four-game series after Cleveland won the first two games.
Martin and Tulowitzki each had three-run homers and Justin Smoak had a two-run shot for the Blue Jays.

Tigers 5, Rays 1
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Ian Kinsler started a rally with a double and scored the tying run in the eighth, then capped a four-game sweep with his 200th career home run in the ninth as Detroit beat Tampa Bay.
It was another late-inning collapse for the Rays, who opened the series Thursday by giving up eight runs in the ninth inning in a 10-7 loss and have now dropped 16 of 18 games. The Tigers now head to Cleveland with momentum and hoping to avenge a three-game sweep last week.
Kinsler hit two-run homer in the ninth, joining Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez and Jimmy Rollins as the only active players with at least 200 home runs, 1,000 runs scored, 1,600 hits and 200 stolen bases.

Phillies 7, Royals 2
PHILADELPHIA -- Philadelphia wasted little time jumping on Kansas City starting pitcher Yordano Ventura en route to a win that was highlighted by a three-run homer from Cameron Rupp in the first inning.
Rupp blasted an opposite-field shot to bring in Peter Bourjos and Maikel Franco. The single from Bourjos three batters earlier extended his hitting streak to 12 games, the longest by any Phillies player this season.
Franco mashed his team-leading 14th homer of the season in the eighth inning as the Phillies finished with 11 hits. Cody Asche also joined in on the home-run parade as he picked up his third home run of the season after missing the first 53 games.

White Sox 4, Astros 1
HOUSTON -- Jose Quintana dazzled for seven innings and Chicago won its fourth consecutive series by claiming the rubber match against Houston.
Quintana (6-8) limited the Astros to just two hits and two walks while recording four strikeouts. He surrendered a leadoff home run to George Springer in the first inning and pitched with a pair of baserunners on the in the third inning before retiring the final 15 batters he faced.
The White Sox had supplied Quintana with one run or less of support eight times over his last nine starts. They scored twice in the third inning off Astros right-hander Collin McHugh (5-6) before tacking on insurance runs in the eighth.

Red Sox 10, Angels 5
BOSTON -- Sean O'Sullivan turned in a much-needed strong start and Boston used a seven-run fifth inning to beat Los Angeles.
O'Sullivan, who had been recalled from Triple-A Pawtucket before the game to make the spot start, left to a standing ovation in the sixth after throwing five scoreless innings. O'Sullivan (2-0) had made two other starts for the Red Sox this season, including a May 15 no-decision against Houston in which he allowed six runs on five hits over 4 1/3 innings.
Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon and Dustin Pedroia drove in two runs apiece while David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Marco Hernandez added RBIs for the Red Sox, who won their first series since taking two of three against Seattle on June 17-19.

Twins 5, Rangers 4
MINNEAPOLIS -- Minnesota got to one of the best pitchers in the American League and then hung on late to beat Texas to take the rubber match of the three-game series.
The Twins scored five runs off Rangers left-hander Cole Hamels (9-2), driving him from the game before he could record an out in the fifth inning. It was Hamels' shortest outing in 29 games since being traded to Texas from the Philadelphia Phillies last summer.
Kurt Suzuki and Robbie Grossman each had two hits and Miguel Sano reached base three times, scoring twice.

Dodger 4, Rockies 1
LOS ANGELES -- Right-hander Brandon McCarthy pitched five shutout innings in his first appearance in 14 months to lead Los Angeles over Colorado at Dodger Stadium.
McCarthy conceded just two hits and one walk while collecting eight strikeouts and throwing 72 pitches in his first game since April 2015, when he underwent Tommy John surgery. McCarthy combined with four relievers in permitting just four total hits and amassing 15 strikeouts, with Kenley Jansen getting his 24th save.
Corey Seager extended his hitting streak to 16 games, matching the Miami Marlins' Marcell Ozuna for the major leagues' longest this year. Trayce Thompson and Yasmani Grandal added solo home runs as Los Angeles earned its sixth victory in seven games.

Mariners 9, Orioles 4
SEATTLE -- Another home run from left fielder Seth Smith helped Seattle sweep Baltimore at Safeco Field.
Smith hit his 10th home run of the season, and his fourth of the series, to lead a Mariners offense that had 10 hits. The Mariners won their fourth in a row while finishing off the Orioles' first four-game sweep of the season.
Baltimore matched its longest losing streak of the season, having lost four in a row.

Pirates 6, A's 3
OAKLAND, Calif. -- Left-hander Francisco Liriano gave up three runs over five innings and ended his five-game losing streak as Pittsburgh rallied for the third straight game to defeat Oakland and complete a series sweep at the Oakland Coliseum.
Liriano allowed six hits, struck out two and walked only one, his lowest total since walking none on April 30 against Cincinnati, winning for the first time since beating Arizona on May 24.
Rookie left fielder Adam Frazier made his second career start and went 2-for-4 with a triple and a double for the Pirates. He drove in the game-tying run with a sixth-inning triple then scored the go-ahead run that inning

Giants 5, Diamondbacks 4
PHOENIX -- Ramiro Pena's pinch-hit double drove in the go-ahead run in the 11th inning, and San Francisco continued its roll through the National League West with a victory over Arizona at Chase Field.
The Giants are 18-4 against division opponents since being swept in a four-game homer series by Arizona on May 18-21. They lead the NL West by five games.
Jarrett Parker singled to open the 11th inning off right-hander Enrique Burgos before Pena doubled into the right field corner to drive in the decisive run.

Yankees 6, Padres 3
SAN DIEGO -- Mark Teixeira drove in three runs with a pair of homers after Didi Gregorius hit a solo homer and New York defeated San Diego at Petco Park to prevent a three-game sweep.
Yankees right-hander Chad Green held the Padres to one run on three hits over six innings in his second major League start, while Gregorius's ninth homer of the season, off Padres right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, broke up a 1-1 tie in the fourth.
Teixeira made it 3-1 when he led off the eighth inning with his sixth homer of the season against Padres right-handed reliever Carlos Villanueva. The 400th homer of the Yankees first baseman's career was a high fly that landed in the short-porch seats down the right-field foul line at Petco Park.

Brewers 9, Cardinals 8
ST. LOUIS -- Stephen Piscotty's two-out grand slam in the bottom of the sixth led St. Louis to a three-game sweep of Milwaukee at Busch Stadium.
Piscotty blasted a 3-2 fastball from reliever Blaine Boyer 425 feet into the third deck in left field -- his second slam of the season -- to give the Cardinals an 8-2 lead. This year, Piscotty is 5-for-9 with 13 RBIs with the sacks filled, and is 8-for-15 in his career with 18 RBIs.
Rain delayed the game's start for 80 minutes and halted it for another 55 minutes in the middle of the Brewers' two-run rally in the seventh. By the time the game ended, perhaps 2,000 fans were left from the announced crowd of 41,148.

Marlins 5, Braves 2
FORT BRAGG, N.C. -- Adam Conley pitched six shutout innings, and Miami perked up on offense to defeat Atlanta in an historic event on the Army base at Fort Bragg.
It was the first regular-season game in any major professional sport to be played on an active U.S. military base. The game was set up to honor military personnel on the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
Conley (5-5) was spectacular in limiting the Braves to four hits and one walk. He struck out two. J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado and Christian Yelich all rapped three hits for the Marlins, who won for only the fourth time in 12 meetings with Atlanta this year

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Brewers (35-46) at Nationals (50-33)

Game: 1
Venue: Nationals Park
Date: July 04, 2016 11:05 AM EDT

WASHINGTON -- The Washington Nationals have been at home for a week after a 10-game road trip in which the team went 3-7.

While the Nationals are in the midst of their first three-opponent homestand of the season the schedule has certainly not been routine for the first-place club.

Washington will host the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday morning -- an early start for any game and certainly for the first game of a series. The Nationals are 6-1 so far on the homestand.

The early start has become a tradition on July 4 in the nation's capital, affording fans and players alike to make it home in time to be with family and see the fireworks display on the National Mall if they so desire. It just so happens this year July 4 is on a Monday -- a typical day for the first game of a series in the majors.

Seeing fireworks in the nation's capital may be more challenging this year as the Metro -- the public transportation system in the capital region -- has been undergoing maintenance the past few weeks and delays have been the norm.

With that as a backdrop Washington right-hander Max Scherzer (9-5, 3.30) will start on Monday while right-hander Junior Guerra (5-1, 3.25) will go for the Brewers. He is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA in his last three starts and has never faced any of the current Washington hitters. Guerra did not pitch against the Nationals earlier this month when Washington played in Wisconsin.

He will have to deal with a Washington team that hit six homers on Sunday against the Reds and has 120 this year to lead the National League.

Scherzer is 9-5 with a 2.62 ERA in day games since he joined the Nationals to start the 2015 season.

The St. Louis native has had some memorable day game performances at Nationals Park. One of them was his no-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates in June, 2015.

The Nationals bullpen got a break Sunday as Stephen Strasburg came off the DL and threw 6 2/3 innings of no-hit ball after Washington and Cincinnati played 14 innings on Friday and 10 innings on Saturday. Strasburg was taken out after throwing 109 pitches.

"Our bullpen is beat up, theirs is beat up, it was a tough series. We won the yearly series against them, we won three out of four against them here," Washington manager Dusty Baker said of facing the Reds.

It will be a quick turnaround for Milwaukee, who played Sunday in St. Louis and had to endure a rain delay as well and that meant delaying a flight to Washington. The Brewers lost in St. Louis 9-8 after scoring four in the top of the ninth in a game that ended around 8:20 p.m. ET.

The Nationals ended their game Sunday against the Reds around 4:45 p.m. ET.

The early start on Monday will continue a pattern of different starting times for Washington on the homestand.

The Thursday game with the Cincinnati Reds began at 7:05 p.m., a normal start time. The Friday game was slated to begin at 6:05 p.m. so fireworks could be displayed after the game. But a rain delay forced a late start and due to a noise ordinance in the nation's capital the fireworks had to be called off.

Saturday's game with the Reds began on time at 7:15 p.m. as a national broadcast on FOX. And Sunday's series finale started on time at 1:35 p.m., the normal first pitch for Sunday home games in Washington.

Baker said getting back to a "normal sleep" schedule played a factor in giving some days off to some of his regulars earlier in this homestand.

After the early start on Monday, the Nationals will go back to a regular first pitch time of 7:05 p.m. on Tuesday before ending the homestand at 4:05 p.m. Wednesday against the Brewers.

The Nationals begin a series on Thursday in New York against the Mets. The Brewers return home to face the Cardinals in a series that starts Friday.

"We're in a little bit of a funk offensively," Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. Trying to get out of that funk against Scherzer could be a tough task, especially with little sleep after a flight from St. Louis.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Angels (33-49) at Rays (33-48)

Game: 1
Venue: Tropicana Field
Date: July 04, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Two teams with nearly identical records and similar losing streaks meet as the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays play four games at Tropicana Field, with both teams desperately trying to regain positive momentum before the All-Star break.

"The team, we played our tail off. We battled," Rays starter Chris Archer said Sunday after another late-game meltdown turned into a 5-1 loss to the Tigers to complete a four-game sweep. "It's a tough one to lose because we really battled up until the end."

The Rays (33-48) have lost 16 of 18 games as they officially enter the second half of the season, and their bullpen has given up runs in 17 of those games. On Sunday, the Rays had a 1-0 lead in the eighth inning, only to see reliever Xavier Cedeno allow two inherited runners to score, with more runs coming in the ninth.

Los Angeles (33-49) is coming off a 10-5 loss to Boston, and aside from a ridiculous 21-2 win on Saturday that included 22 hits and an 11-run seventh inning, nothing has been clicking for the Angels, who have dropped 11 of their last 13 games.

The Angels will try to shake things up a bit Monday, with 25-year-old right-hander Nick Tropeano called up from Triple-A to start against the Rays. Tropeano is 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA in previous stints this season, and struck out 10 Rays batters in a 3-1 loss in May, giving up seven hits in his outing.

Tropeano's callup means Jhoulys Chacin has been demoted to the bullpen after continued ineffectiveness.

"I'm fine with it," Chacin told the team's official site Sunday. "I know the last few games I haven't done my job. Honestly, I don't feel bad that they sent me to the bullpen. I actually feel good that they have confidence in me to keep me on the team."

The Rays counter with left-hander Matt Moore, whose last start was a rare bright spot for Tampa Bay in recent weeks. Moore threw seven innings of shutout baseball in a 4-0 win against the Red Sox on Wednesday. He is 4-5 with a 4.67 ERA, though both of the Angels' big bats, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, each has a home run in eight at-bats against him.

Rays manager Kevin Cash was optimistic his team could build off a strong start by Archer on Sunday -- zero runs on three hits in 5 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts. He doesn't have many bullpen arms he trusts, so he will need Moore to last as long as possible before he has to turn to any relievers.

"Can't help but feel really good about what Chris Archer did today," Cash said. "He kicked it in gear and kind of showed the Archer we know he's very capable of being. That was an outstanding effort by Arch."