Monday 7/2 Service Plays

Lloyd · Jul 2, 2007

Michael Cannon Money Train
Monday's Plays:

15 Dime –

PHILLIES (With Moyer and Williams as listed pitchers)
Take the Phillies for the road win tonight over the Astros.
Philadelphia got back on track with a win over the Mets yesterday and I expect them to carry that momentum over tonight against Houston.
Jamie Moyer will get the start for the Phils and he’s 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts. The elder statesman is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA in nine career games against the Astros.
Woody Williams is scheduled to start for Houston and he’s having a miserable year. The right-hander is 3-10 with a 5.58 ERA in 17 games this year. He hasn’t fared much better against Philadelphia in his career, going 3-6 with a 5.32 ERA in 11 games. Williams faced the Phillies back on April 14 this year, allowing six runs on eight hits in 5 1-3 innings of an 8-5 loss.
Take the Phillies as they grab the road win tonight.

5 Dime –

BREWERS (With Suppan and Van Benschoten as listed pitchers)
Lay the chalk with the Brewers tonight over the Pirates at PNC Park.
Milwaukee will look to continue their dominance this season over the Pirates, where they’ve won five of six games and outscoring the Bucs 38-19.
Jeff Suppan will get the start and he’s fared well against the Pirates in his career, going 9-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 16 games, including 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two games this season.
The Bucs will counter with John Van Benschoten, a former first-round selection who is still searching for his first major league win. The right-hander lasted only four innings in his last start, a no-decision against the Marlins last Wednesday. Van Benschoten has had trouble with his command since being recalled from Triple-A and he was pulled from his last start after throwing 81 pitches in just four innings.
Take the Brewers as they grab the road win over the Bucs.

MARINERS (With Hernandez as listed pitcher)
Take the Mariners for the road win over the Royals.
Seattle has won eight-straight games and I expect them to continue that surge despite the resignation of manager Mike Hargrove. If anything, it should give the Mariners a jolt as they travel to take on Kansas City.
Felix Hernandez will get the start and we’re getting great value with him tonight over the Royals. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in two career games against Kansas City. Hernandez should be just about all the way back after spending some time on the DL earlier this year, and if he’s on like he was to start the season this game should be no trouble for the Mariners.
Take Seattle as the small road chalk for the win.

Brandon Lang:

15 Dime:
Mets

5 Dime:
Phillies
Rangers

Bonus Play: Mariners

Ben Burns

Game: Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres
Jul 2 2007 10:05PM

Prediction: Florida Marlins

Reason: The Marlins come off a marathon extra-inning game, which included a 90-minute rain delay, vs. the Braves. Now they have to fly all the way to the West Coast to take on a San Diego squad which is a healthy 20-13 when coming off a loss. Wells comes off a strong start at San Francisco in which he held the Giants to one run through six innings. He also pitched well vs. Baltimore in his previous outing (2 earned runs through 6 1/3 innings) which gave him a stellar 2.93 ERA at Petco Park this season. Mitre, on the other hand, got roughed up by the Pirates in his last start. He now has a 6.27 ERA and 1.768 WHIP his last three starts. Wells outpitched Mitre at Florida back in May. Look for him to do so again this evening as the Marlins fall to 16-22 when coming off a victory.

Big Al McMordie

Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals (MLB)
Jul 2, 2007 7:05 PM EDT

Play: Total: 8.5 Over

Cubs lefthanded veteran Ted Lilly is having another typical Ted Lilly season. He has never been a low ERA pitcher and often gets himself into trouble, but he strikes guys out and occasionally will throw in a gem of a start about one in every five or six times he goes out there. Lilly is in the middle of a bit of a rough patch now, having allowed four or more earned runs in five of his last seven appearances. Lilly does, however, tend to get plenty of run support when he needs it. In fact the Cubs have scored four or more runs in eight of his last ten starts and five or more runs in five of his last eight. Nats righthanded starter Jason Simontacchi has certainly had his problems this season, and most have come in front of the home crowd. Although Simontacchi has 5 wins on the year, his record at home is only 2-4 and his ERA is a ghastly 7.76 at RFK Stadium. This is the first meeting of the year for these two at RFK and they certainly have not had trouble scoring runs there in the past as four of the last six contests in DC have gone a total of nine runs or more.

Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

AJPantano · Jul 2, 2007

Why is Ben Burns prediction the Marlins, when he says the Padres will win, lol.

Lloyd · Jul 2, 2007

Hot-Locks Sports Investments:

Minn/Yanks Under 9.5 - 4 units.(1-5 units, 5 highest)

UNDER is 7-1-1 in Rogers L 9 vs Minny,
UNDER is 9-2-1 in Rogers L1 12 overall,

Bonser & clemans are 5-0 to the UNDER combined L5 starts,

Boof pitches failrly well on the road and Roger is well Roger. 5-3 type game here if that.

Boston -158 - 4 units
Boston -1.5 RL, - 2 units.
Lots of chalk here but the Bosox are 21-6 L 3 seasons when they have lost BTB at home. Off two close 1 run losses against the Rangers will certainly be motivation. In games 3 & 4 of a series, the Bosox are also 7-0 L 3 seasons off BTB losses and have won bu an average of 3.14 rpg. Texas has played well in these lasttwo wins but it is certainly not enough to habve us jump on the VALUE play here and take the rangers, no way. Boston gets back on track.

Lloyd · Jul 2, 2007

WUNDERDOG COMP MLB PICKS

Game: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cleveland -196

The D-Rays look at Jacobs Field as a house of horrors and will be glad to get out of there. They have dropped eight straight there and overall have been swept 3 times in their last 5 visits, including a four-game sweep to close last season. The D-Rays are once again finding the win column on the road very difficult. They have dropped their last seven games overall and have lost five straight on the road. Fausto Carmona has struggled some lately, but the good news is that Tampa has shown no offense against RHP. They are plus units against LHP, but are 22-34 -9.59 units against RHP, and the last three outings against RHP have produced a grand total of three runs. Cleveland has bounced back off of a 3-7 slide to go 12-6, and has won four in a row. They will sweep tonight to make it 4-of-6 sweeps over the Rays.

infoguy · Jul 2, 2007

Tony Onio

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200♦PHILLY
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rehawk · Jul 2, 2007

VEGAS EXPERTS

Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Monday, July 2nd, 8:10 P.M. EDT

White Sox have played 10 straight unders. In five of their last six contests the loser of the game scored just one run. Bedard shows a 1.80 ERA his last three starts while Buerhle has nearly matched him with 2.08. BEDARD is 25-10 UNDER vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) BUEHRLE is 15-5 UNDER (+9.3 Units) when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Play on: Under

Paul Leiner
5* White Sox -110

FPBE Free Picks

  Matty O'Shea - MIL -140
Ben Burns - FLA +122
Bryan Leonard - SEA -115
Jeff Bonds - LAD -115

MATT F@RGO

New York Mets at Colorado Rockies 9:05 PM ET

The Mets did drop their series finale at Philadelphia but they took three of three of the four games in the set and are playing excellent right now. After going on an abysmal 3-13 stretch, New York has won eight of its last 10 games and it’s been the pitching that has carried it. The Mets have allowed three runs or fewer in seven of those 10 games and will be counted on once again to shut down the Rockies. Colorado won on Saturday but has dropped nine of its last 10 games.
Tom Glavine is back in form after two uncharacteristic games where he allowed 16 earned runs in back-to-back outings. In the two games since then, he has allowed just one run in 14 innings for a 0.64 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Glavine’s biggest problem this season has been pitching during the day where he is 1-3 with an 8.42 ERA. In 12 nighttime starts, he is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA with the Mets going 9-3 in those games. In his career, he is 11-5 with a 2.88 ERA against the Rockies.

Jason Hirsh has been up and down this season and most of the down part has been recently. He has allowed five runs in each of his last three starts for a 9.20 ERA and 1.84 ratio. The long ball has been a real issue as he has given up seven over those three games and has allowed two dingers in three of his last five home games. At Coors, he is 1-4 with a 5.62 ERA which is the same ERA he has posted in 11 nighttime starts where he is just 1-5. New York averaged 5.5 rpg in Philadelphia and that continues here.

With Colorado struggling so much, it has been a mixture of problems and that helps the Mets in a great situation. Play against home underdogs after a game where they had four or less hits and have a bullpen that is struggling with an 8.00 ERA or higher over its last five games. This situation is 37-9 against the moneyline (80.4 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +2.6 rpg. This is a very good price for a hot Mets team that has won 20 of the last 26 meetings.

Play New York Mets 1 Unit

Ness Monday Night Massacre
 Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: New York Mets at Colorado Rockies Jul 2 2007 9:05PM
Prediction: New York Mets
Reason: New York's troubles seem behind them. The team opened June 4-14 but has won eight of its last 10. The Mets had to send rookie Mike Pelfrey to the mound Sunday and he fell to 0-6 with a 5-3 loss to Philadelphia as the first-place Mets couldn't close out a four-game sweep of their NL East rivals. Met starters were 6-0 with a 1.82 ERA in nine games prior to Sunday's loss, with tonight's starter Tom Glavine winning twice. Glavine has won two straight outings after going 0-4 in his previous five, allowing one run and seven hits in his past 14 innings. The Mets were 24-8 (plus-$1,449) in Glavine's starts LY and are 10-7 this year. He is 11-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 27 starts against the Rockies but he hasn't faced them in two years. It's not bad news for Glavine and the Mets that the Rockies are just 7-14 (minus-$765) vs left-handed starts in 2007, averaging a measly 3.7 RPG. It's also not bad news for the Mets that Colorado limps into this game losers of NINE of its last 10, allowing 77 runs (8.6/game) in the nine losses. The Rockies will counter with Jason Hirsh (3-7, 5.21 ERA), who is 0-1 with a 9.20 ERA in his last three starts, allowing seven home runs in that span (team has lost seven of his last 10 starts). Even if Hirsh can keep this game close, the Rockies' bullpen is in a bit of disarray right now. Brian Fuentes, demoted from the closer's role on Saturday, gave up two runs and two hits in one inning of yesterday's 12-0 loss to Houston. Fuentes has allowed 10 earned runs in his last five appearances. More good news comes New York's way in that the team is 13-4 (plus-$1,025) vs right-handed starters on the road in night games. Monday Massacre on the New York Mets.

charlies sports

  monday july 2, 2007

mlb. arizona @ st.louis under 8 (500*)

mlb. philadelphia-115 (30*)

mlb. chisox-110 (20*)

mlb. oakland-135 (20*)

mlb. mets-120 (10*)

mlb. dodgers-120 (10*) Bonus Play

rehawk · Jul 2, 2007

Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Utah Blaze vs Los Angeles Avengers
Utah finished the regular season in a Blaze of glory by defeating the Avengers on the road 47-37. Today they are looking to win back-back games in this Wild Card matchup. Utah will move on to meet the Sabre Cats. For Utah it is all about the defense that has finally come together and held back their last 2 opponents to under 20 and 40 points respectively. LA has turned the ball over 28 times this season. I like the ever improving Utah Blaze to win. Take the side on Utah.

Cappersaccess
(Mon) MLB Brewers Pirates 145 Brewers
(Mon) MLB W. Sox O's 110 W. Sox
(Mon) MLB A's Blue Jays 125 Blue Jays

Chris Jordan
Philadelphia (-120) at HOUSTON

Play the Over in the Phillies/Astros game tonight, as we take a look at a traditional high in the National League.
Aside from the Over coming in four of the last five times these two have met, there are many aspects to look at with his clash.
The Over has cashed the ticket in 12 of Houston's last 14 home games, not to mention in five of the last six times it's been posted as a home underdog. Overall this team has seen the total soar in 14 of its last 19 overall, while it's been the high number in four straight home starts by Woody Williams.
With the Phillies, the Over is 13-5-1 the last 19 times they've been carrying suitcases, while it's come in five of the last seven times the Phils have stepped on the field. It's also punched the winning ticket in four of Philly's last five against the NL Central.
In the teams' first series this season, they posted run totals of 15, 13 and 15.
I'll look for this one to get there as well.

2? OVER

Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Mets at COLORADO (+120)

There's no place like home for the Rockies as they just wrapped up a 1-9 road trip with a loss in Houston. But in their last eight home games they are 7-1. So let's take the plus money and watch as the bats get going at Coors Field in this one and they beat the Mets.
Tom Glavine is pitching for New York and he is just 3-4 on the road with a 4.97 ERA. He's given up a combined 16 runs in his last two road starts as the Yankees and Tigers both destroyed him. Last time he pitched in Colorado, Glavine gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings of a 5-3 loss back in 2005.
Jason Hirsh (3-7, 5.21) is on the mound for the Rockies. He's started just once against the Mets and it was last season as a member of the Astros when he held the Mets to one earned run on five hits in six innings of a 4-2 loss.
The Rockies tend to pound right-handed pitching and hit .285 at home against them. They'll be so relieved to be at home, look for a big offensive game from them.
Play Colorado in what should be a slugfest tonight.

2? COLORADO

Karl Garrett
Philadelphia (-120) at HOUSTON

Tonight gonna go with the crafty-vet Jamie Moyer and the Phillies, as Moyer is 2-0 his last 3 starts, and the Phillies are 10-6 when the southpaw toes the rubber this year.
Can't find many positives about Woody Williams this year, as Williams is still struggling at 3-10 with an ERA that is still well over 5. The Phillies are responsible for 1 of those 13 losses, as they tagged the Wood-Man for 5 runs in 5 innings in an April meeting in Philly.
The Phillies took 2 of 3 in that series, and they did win all 3 games last season at Houston.
No issue laying a little road wood with Philadelphia tonight, as I can see them torching Woody Williams once again.

2? PHILADELPHIA

Dave Cokin

(921) BAL Orioles
(922) CHI White Sox

Take "(921) BAL Orioles"

Erik Bedard is pitching tremendous ball for Baltimore and the southpaw goes against a White Sox team that has been beyond pathetic against lefties. Mark Buehrle is no slouch to be sure but he's unlikely to get much support in this contest. The O's are the far better team against lefties and I'd give Bedard the edge over Buehrle on the pitching side. The Chisox have come alive and are off a very good week but I'm still going to have to tab the Orioles here.

Jim feist

(907) ARI D'backs
(908) STL Cardinals

Take "(907) ARI D'backs"

The Diamondbacks are in a dogfight with the Padres and Dodgers for top honor in the NL West. They get to go with their ace this game in Brandon Webb (8-5, 3.05 ERA). He has 100 Ks in 108 innings. The D-Backs are one of the few teams in baseball with a winning road record, while the Cardinals are one of the bad teams with a LOSING home record! Converted starter Braden Looper had a good start to the season, but all the innings are beginning to show with an 8.82 ERA the last three starts. Play the Diamondbacks!