Monday 6/9/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Monday 6/9 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day
DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,5,7,8 with 2,5 with 4 with 6,7,8 = $24



Best Bet: SUPER LUSTRE (3rd)

Spot Play: THREE ROCK NIGHT (5th)

Race 1

Not even the bad post can stop (8) GALE FORCE HANOVER from making it seven straight as long as he stays on gait. (1) NEELY SPRING has been racing gamely and is on a roll of his own but would need much more. (4) NORDIC VENTURE gets sent out for top connections and should be in line for an ideal trip.

Race 2

(8) NO SHENANIGANS makes his first start in a barn that usually shaves a few seconds off immediately; threat. (2) BASILIO BLUE CHIP has been racing much better in a new barn; threat. (3) CHIPS GALORE comes off a victory and gets a good driver change.

Race 3

(5) SUPER LUSTRE was a much different trotter last start and a repeat of that effort gets it done. (9) LASER LUCY set a lifetime mark last out but could be hampered by the second tier and gets a negative driver change. (2) CARELESS LOVE has put in two big efforts. The trotter gets a much better post and should be a lot closer turning for home.

Race 4

(1) TIDEWATER TOMCAT gets a huge driver change and the best post. (2) CRAIG MICHAEL parlayed a perfect trip last out and faces a similar field. (9) BEANS AND WEENIES was an easy winner down in class last start and could get a decent spot out of the gate.

Race 5

(9) THREE ROCK NIGHT could be hit or miss, but the pacer makes his third start for new connections and should offer a nice price. (5) FIREBREATHN DRAGON has been pacing some decent miles but could be over bet and has a low percentage pilot. (4) JAY DEAN DEW finds a wide open race and picks up the top driver.

Race 6

(4) HOOREI FOR FLASH has had trouble keeping up at the beginning of the mile, but does have ability for an aggressive driver. (3) BIG HARRY DEAL appears to be going in the right direction after some lackluster performances. (1) SCOOTIN BAY bumps up in class off an easy win; threat.

Race 7

(2) ACTION METRO MAX gets good post relief for top connections. (1) NOBLE TRICK will benefit from the rail and should get a great trip. (3) COLD BATH has good gate speed, which should put him on the ticket with a decent effort.

Race 8

Despite only one win on the year, (7) LONESOME ATTACK has had some bad luck; big chance. (8) FOREVER GOOD has the gate speed to overcome the post for a red hot trainer. (5) CASH‘EM IN would be a threat with one of his efforts prior to his last. (1) TOMMY TWO SHOES should get an aggressive drive with the rail.

Race 9

(2) MARY‘S DARVIN will look to turn the tables on the favorite this time out. The trotter is a threat with a better spot off the gate. (5) KAHOKU trotted a big mile last start against a game opponent. (1) SCHALYN comes off a scratch but could hit the bottom of the ticket at a price.

Race 10

(4) ROCKIN FINISH had no chance last out and will look to take no prisoners early. (1) LYONS JOSEPHJNR gets sent out for the top barn in the country and could be one of a few threats to the top choice. (3) PL DRAGON has a ton of ability and early gate speed; threat.

Race 11

(7) ROSE RUN LOGAN made a break last out but would be tough if he minds his manners. (8) MYTHICAL HALL benefited from the miscue last start and should try and fire out for position again. (6) HEZA RUBE is a really nice trotter. If the 4-year-old finds a little racing luck he could be a threat late.

Race 12

(9) YANKEEDOODLEANDEE has some positives, including third start back off a long layoff and a better post. The pacer should offer a big price and finds a weak field. (2) SUNBURNED VERN has been racing very evenly; command a price. (3) DRIVEN TO SUCCEED drops down in class against a suspect bunch.

Race 13

(4) BLACK ACE HANOVER faces much easier and could be tough with an early breather. (7) LITTLE MAN JOE dominated last out against a weak group but will need more in this spot. (6) SKULL OF ROSES has good closing ability and could be the main danger with some pace to close into.

Race 14

(4) CYCLONE ASHORE raced big last out and could use a smooth trip. (3) CRY FOR CASH gets sent out for hot connections; threat. (9) ALLAMERICAN MASTER should find this spot much easier while down in class for a tag.

Race 15

(4) CHASE THE SUN went an unreal mile last out and won‘t be touched with a similar effort; driver’s choice. (5) FORTUNE‘S JENNA has intangibles that are tough to measure and can go tough trips if need be. (1) PARTYATBARSPLACE finally gets put in a spot to do some damage and could be a player should the top choice falter.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 6/9 Analysis
By Greg Gangle


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: OLE JACK MAGIC (2nd)

Spot Play: O U GUS (11th)

Race 1

(5) WHICHAMACALLIT has been a beaten favorite in each of his two starts this season, but he continues to be on the upswing and I feel he’s very capable in here. (8) MASSIVE POCKETS has been aggressively-steered in each of his last two starts and responded well for trainer Dupont. (3) SHADYWOOD KID is fresh off a win in the City of London final for team Henry and draws a favorable post once again.

Race 2

(5) OLE JACK MAGIC raced from off-the-pace in his latest. The contest turned into a sprint turning for home and he had to settle for fourth. He was the favorite coming into the contest and trotted a strong :27 4/5 final frame, which sets him up very well in here. (2) CROWNINGCREST draws inside in his second start of the season and seems capable of improving off last week’s performance. (3) REDEMPTION ROAD comes out of the Baillargeon barn, which is very capable with young trotters, and this son of Angus Hall posted a credible first qualifier, beaten just a neck for the win.

Race 3

(6) TSUNAMI SEELSTER hasn’t been on his game yet this season, but that could change following his impressive qualifier on May 23. (2) P L HURCULES will get a lot of attention in here following his credible effort last week in his lone start of the season. (5) WHITEGLOVES is coming into tonight’s contest in top form following a win in his latest right here at Mohawk. He did all the work on the front and once again begins from a good post.

Race 4

(4) DREAMINGOFWICHITA just missed last week at this level and is due for her first career win. (10) NEVERSAIDIWASSWEET will have to overcome post 10, but comes out of McNair’s barn and put forth a solid effort last week in her career debut. (3) MAJOR HANGOVER draws inside, is versatile and comes out of the Jones barn. His stable has been terrific this season and this daughter of Major In Art provided the quickest time of her career last start.

Race 5

(2) JITTERBUG makes just his second start of the season and after last week’s performance. He’ll get top billing by many horse players. (3) R CHOOCHOO CHARLIE was a beaten favorite, but came first-over through honest fractions and should be that much better in here. (9) KEYSTONE TREVOR has been racing very strong over Vernon Downs prior to his latest effort and adapted well to this circuit.

Race 6

(5) CLASSIC GENT has been racing very competitively and winning at a higher level; will aim to get back on track. (6) WHY DONT U STAY has been racing well on this circuit in his last two starts. He remains at this same bottom-end level that he was competitive at last week. (7) KINDLY POET hasn’t been on form as of late, but adds Lasix to his program and that may be the key ingredient to finding another gear for this veteran.

Race 7

(4) MONEY MAVEN was a beaten favorite last week in this class, but I’m going to play him again. (6) SMARTY PANTS has all kinds of speed, but throughout the past few seasons she has been shy of the winner’s circle. (7) ZEUS LIGHTNING made an uncharacteristic break last week from a post 10 start; drops in class and draws better.

Race 8

(11) ADVENTURE hasn’t won yet this season from six starts, but is overdue and it may come in here. He begins from the trailing post 11 and has been putting forth solid efforts in each of his last two. (1) WINDSUN REVENGE scored an impressive victory two back, coming off cover and most recently finishing third in a good time and solid final quarter. (10) FINAL FANTASY is very lightly raced this season and used his gate speed from the outside last week, which he may need to do again in here.

Race 9

(4) DREAM ROCKER banked just shy of $50K last season and posted a very strong qualifying effort last week over a ‘good’ track. (6) KREMLIN was individually timed in 1:57 and is a two-time winner from five starts this season. (8) THE CASINO COWBOY has hit the board in four of six starts this season, while racing at Flamboro Downs.

Race 10

(7) HOPIESDRAGNINTHEDO has been racing very strongly in each of his last two starts and drops down in class. (4) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP has been racing very consistently this season for trainer Darling. This son of Art Major has responded very well. (2) COBBLE BEACH doesn’t like to win this season, but is a good option for the triactor. He’s hit the board in two of his last three starts, draws inside and gets Davis, Jr. back aboard.

Race 11

(8) O U GUS is just one for 16 this season, but has back class to him and is overdue for a big effort. (7) PROTEGE SEELSTER closed very well with a :28 final quarter and although he faces a tougher bunch, he looks very capable with a repeat effort. (5) ORDER BY COMMANDER draws better this week, continues to have Jamieson in the bike and drops in class.

 

[superbeets]

International Tu 10Jun 01:00

Ireland

v

Portugal

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		7/2	23/10	17/20	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN IRELAND	RECENT FORM
HWADHLHLNDND​ Most recent​	1 - 0 1 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0	HWHWAWHWHDNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Helder Postiga scored six goals for Portugal in World Cup qualifying

EXPERT VERDICT: Ireland did well to hold Italy in a recent friendly, but they are a limited side and Portugal should possess too much firepower for them. Paulo Bento’s men will be looking to get their eye in before a tough first World Cup match against Germany, so a professional performance looks likely.

RECOMMENDATION: Portugal
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Turf. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 90

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 9, 2014 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 9, 2014 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT ENTER


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 SABOULI 3/1


# 4 VIELSALM 10/1


# 1 MELORA 4/1


I think SABOULI is a formidable choice. Solid average speed figures in turf route races make this pony a solid choice. Has to be given a chance - I like the figs from the last race. The average class fig of 85 makes this horse tough to beat. VIELSALM - Has run soundly when racing a turf route race. MELORA - Looks formidable to be up on the front end at the first call. Has a very strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to consider this filly.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Valuline at Finger Lakes

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Finger Lakes, Race 1 (Monday June 9, 2014)
PUMPKIN LANE
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)


FL-1 1mi-70 DIRT Six Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 F/M 3YUP $9,000
P# dd ex t s ML WP TVL

6 PUMPKIN LANE 8/5 50% 1/1 Strong Favorite icon
2 CAT BELLS 5/2 14% 6/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #3 - Post: 7:46pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $22,200 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SWEAR (ML=3/1)
#5 CURFEW TOWER (ML=5/2)

SWEAR - Gelding emerged victorious his last race here on May 12th as a shipper. I think he looks like a winner once again. If you review the PP's for this entrant, you'll see he has recorded the top speed figure at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. PP data show this thoroughbred with three improving Equibase speed figs. Pilares should be on a live horse right here. CURFEW TOWER - The Oct 9th event at Keeneland was at a class level of (89). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so he should be in a good position to win. This horse recorded a good rating of 81 in his last race. That rating should be lofty enough to triumph in today's event. This horse is number one in earnings per start. He looks strong in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 PAMPERO STORM (ML=2/1), #2 MOUNTAIN STORM (ML=8/1),

PAMPERO STORM - This gelding probably won't be really close at the finish. MOUNTAIN STORM - 8/1 is not priced right for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance race recently. This less than sharp equine showed little last time finishing ninth. Don't see any hint of any change in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - SWEAR - This steed, posting the top average class figure, figures to give these horses a run for their money.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 SWEAR on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 VASILEA 10/1


# 2 LEGENDARY RIDGE 2/1


# 5 JEWELYNAMBER 4/1


VASILEA looks to be a decent contender and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. Has run admirably when racing a dirt route race. Shows evidence of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 73 speed fig which is one of the best in this group of animals. Look for a very good pace improvement from this animal who enters with second time Lasix today. LEGENDARY RIDGE - Looks very strong for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figures in dirt route races as of late. Ran a strong last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 1:46pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SHE CRAVES CAPITAL (ML=5/2)
#2 BUGSKY (ML=9/2)


SHE CRAVES CAPITAL - This filly's last speed figure is high enough to triumph here, I'll bet on her right back in today's event. She has the uppermost earnings per race. Check out this one. BUGSKY - Although it's been awhile, this filly last won at this same class and distance. I think she could run back to that old form today. Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be beneficial. Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer duo. Getting a break of 5 lbs from last race at Parx Racing. She should make the most of this advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LA VALETTE (ML=9/5), #5 MELODY POMEROY (ML=6/1), #6 OUR PINK RIBBON (ML=8/1),

LA VALETTE - This mare hasn't had any recent success in short distance affairs. Difficult to play her in this race. This horse hasn't shown much in the last pair of affairs. MELODY POMEROY - Registered a disappointing speed figure in the last race in a $5,000 Claiming race on May 11th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that number. OUR PINK RIBBON - You always figure that this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she just misses most of the time. This mare didn't do much for me last time out. Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 SHE CRAVES CAPITAL to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Delaware Park (2nd) Brother Mark, 8-1
(4th) Dominate, 6-1

Finger Lakes (2nd) Commercial Risk, 9-2
(3rd) Untapped Secret, 3-1

Mountaineer (5th) Sapphire Shot, 7-2
(6th) Sister Lilly, 4-1

Parx Racing (1st) Any Cat in a Storm, 9-2
(4th) Melody Pomeroy, 6-1

Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Lulu's Pride, 4-1
(5th) Sharp Sensation, 3-1

Suffolk Downs (3rd) Liberty St. Outlaw, 3-1
(9th) El Bagre, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Monday's free selection:

Kansas City Royals - 135

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR MONDAY:

ARIZONA (Collmenter) -145 over Houston

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Monday's Free Selection:

Houston Astros/Arizona Diamondbacks over 8 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Monday Bonus Play 7:10 PM

MLB (903) LOS ANGELES DODGERS (904) CINCINNATI REDS

Take: (904) CINCINNATI REDS -115

It’s fair to say that the Dodgers haven’t exactly lived up to their pre-season hype. There’s just no way around it, this team is a good sized disappointment thus far. One of the big issues has been an inability to hit lefties and while LA got to Jorge De La Rosa yesterday in a rain-shortened win against the Rockies, the season numbers are ugly, especially in the stats that I think are the most revealing.

Maybe the outburst vs. a pitcher who is generally nails at home gets the Dodgers going. We’ll get to make a small sample judgement tonight as the Dodgers square off against another lefty as they face Tony Cingrani in Cincinnati. Cingrani has been finding the second time around much tougher than the maiden voyage last season.

Cingrani hasn’t been terrible but I think he has to qualify as a bit of an underachiever so far in 2014. He’s only made it through six innings in half his starts. Cingrani has been getting himself in early trouble, with a first time through the lineup ERA of 4.71. That’s a big issue, as it means early deficits for the team and elevated pitch counts for Cingrani. Some of this has been bad luck, as Cingrani’s 6/28 BB/K in that first trip through the opposing nine is actually really good. So there’s actually a decent chance that there might be some positive progression coming in this area for Cingrani. In fact, in his most recent start, the lefty was sharp early. He ran into gopher ball issues in the sixth inning against the Giants and took a tough 3-2 loss, but overall I thought this was an encouraging outing for Cingrani.

Dan Haren will throw for the Dodgers tonight. He’s going to throw strikes, but his command lately has been shaky, with too many hittable pitches. He’s had three or fewer K’s in four of his last five starts, while surrendering eight long balls in those outings. Haren was never a flamethrower, but now he’s down in the 87 range with his fastball, and mistakes at that velocity can leave the ballpark in a hurry. It’s not like Haren is getting bombed, but he’s becoming a six inning and hope for the best pitcher. That means he can still survive at the back end of a rotation, but if the other guy is on his game, chances are Haren will get topped.

I see the scheduling dynamics favoring the Reds. I’ve never had a problem trying to beat teams coming out of that Denver altitude and it’s a stay at home series for Cincinnati. But what stands out to me tonight are those Dodgers numbers against lefties. A .206 BA and .282 OBP aren’t good at all. Granted, the stats have been better on the road for LA than at Chavez Ravine, but overall they’re just ugly. If they produce at that approximate level this evening, I can’t see Haren being able to contain the Reds to that extent. Factor in the possible absence of Dee Gordon and Yasiel Puig (check lineups for updated status) and this shapes up as a decent spot for the hosts. I’ll side with the Reds to grab the series opener.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Atlantic Sports

Monday's Free Selection:

Los Angeles Kings + 120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Computer Sports

Free Selection MLB:

KC -127

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection

ARIZONA w/Collmentor -145

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nevada Sharpshooter

Free Selection MLB

Yankees +117 over Kansas City

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Vegas

Free Selection MLB

Pirates -154