Monday 6/27/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 17:00

Italy

v

Spain

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		10/3	2	23/20	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
ALHWNWNWNWNL​ Most recent​	1 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 4	NWNWNLNWNWNL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Italy have conceded one goal in their last five games

EXPERT VERDICT: Italy are one of the best teams in the world at defending their penalty area and can make life difficult for Spain at the Stade de France. Possession will be mainly in the hands of Spain but their 2-1 loss to Croatia was a reality check and they may struggle to get back on track against such a disciplined opponent.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Cuneyt Cakir STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 20:00

England

v

Iceland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		1/2	3	8	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HWHWHWNDNWND​ Most recent​	6 - 1	AWALHWNDNDHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Iceland have kept one clean sheet in their last eight fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: England boss Roy Hodgson has suggested that his charges could be ready to hand out a hiding and the prophecy could come true with the Three Lions likely to dismantle Iceland in Nice. Iceland worked incredibly hard to take five points in Group F but may not have much left to give in the round of 16.

RECOMMENDATION: England-England double result
1


REFEREE: Damir Skomina STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Italy v Spain

Opta facts:

• This will be the 35th encounter between Italy and Spain. The record is perfectly balanced so far with 10 wins each and 14 draws.
• It will also be the sixth encounter between Italy and Spain in the European Championships (including four in the last three editions), making this the most played fixture in the history of the tournament.
• Spain have eliminated Italy in their two previous encounters in the knockout stages of the EURO: 0-0 (4-2 after penalties) in 2008; 4-0 in the 2012 final.
• Italy's last victory against Spain in a major tournament was in the quarter-finals of the 1994 World Cup (2-1 thanks to goals from Dino and Roberto Baggio).
• Italy have reached the knockout stages of the EURO for the sixth time in eight participations since 1980. It's only the second time they've topped their group in the competition after 2000, when they reached the final.
• Italy have failed to score in three of their last four knockout games at the EURO.
• Spain have lost three of their last six games at the World Cup and EURO, as many defeats as in their previous 31 major tournament games.
• Spain's starting line-up was the same in all three of their group games at EURO 2016.
• Only Fernando Torres (5) and David Villa (4) have scored more goals at the EURO for Spain than 23-year-old Alvaro Morata (3).
• Andrea Barzagli and Leonardo Bonucci are the only players to have started all three of Italy's games at EURO 2016.

 

[superbeets]

England v Iceland

Opta facts:

• This will be the third encounter between England and Iceland. So far, England are unbeaten, having drawn 1-1 in June 1982 and won 6-1 in June 2004.
• England and Iceland's two previous encounters have produced nine goals.
• This is the first time England have reached the knockout stages in two consecutive EURO tournaments (2012, 2016).
• England are unbeaten in their last 10 games at the European Championships, shoot-outs excluded (W5 D5). Their last defeat dates back to 13 June 2004 against France.
• However, England's last four knockout games at the EURO have all gone to penalties. They won the first shoot-out (v Spain in 1996) but have since then lost the last three (v Germany in 1996, v Portugal in 2004, v Italy in 2012).
• England's three goals at EURO 2016 have all been scored from the 56th minute onwards.
• Iceland are unbeaten at EURO 2016 so far (W1 D2). In fact, they have only lost once across their last nine competitive matches (W4 D4).
• All three of Iceland's group games at EURO 2016 have seen both teams score.
• Iceland were the only team, along with Spain, to start with the same lineup in all three of their group games.
• Iceland striker Kolbeinn Sigthorsson has only has two shots in 245 minutes at EURO 2016. None of them have been on target.
• Iceland's Hannes Thór Halldórsson has made more saves than any other goalkeeper at this year's EURO (18).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

(Group Record)

Spain (2-0-1) vs. Italy (2-0-1)

Location: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
TV/Time: ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET

Italy comfortably won Group E (their only defeat was when playing a second-string side against Ireland) and their best performance came in their toughest game, the 2-0 win over Belgium.

Italy struggled to break down Sweden, and playing the best teams in Europe seems to bring out all their qualities: organisation, defence, courage and counter-attacking.

Their opponents in the last 16 are Spain, who go into the match as justifiable favourites: Vicente del Bosque’s side put in two very good performances against Czech Republic and Turkey before being edged into the hard side of the draw in a 2-1 defeat to Croatia - probably the highest quality game of the tournament so far.

Spain are 23/20 to win with a draw 2/1 and an Italy win 10/3. Given how the Italians are likely to set up, as well as Spain’s record of 1-0s in the knockout stages of tournaments, means the goal expectancy is very low, so picking a team to win in normal time looks tough.

However at 8/5 Italy to qualify looks the bet. They are good enough defensively to frustrate a Spain side whose best days are behind them, and they will be happy with a draw in normal time.

Prediction: Italy to qualify at 8/5


Iceland (1-2-0) vs. England (1-2-0)

Location: Allianz Riviera, Nice
TV/Time: ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET

England’s 0-0 draw with Slovakia, where Roy Hodgson made several changes to the team, dropped the Three Lions into by far the tougher side of the draw.

Luckily for them, however, their first challenge in the knockout stages does not look too difficult as they take on Iceland in Nice.

Iceland managed to get five points from their group - the same number as England - but in all three games they were on the back foot, while England were utterly dominant against Russia, Wales and Slovakia.

Their has been some justified criticism of England: certainly, compared with Germany, France and Spain, their build-up play has been ponderous and predictable, while there are still question marks over their defence, but it is stil the case that they have been highly unlucky just to score three goals so far in the tournament.

They are 1/2 to win the game, but a better bet may be a win to nil at 21/20. If England score early it is tough to see a way back for 8/1 Iceland. For once, England may convince in a match at a major tournament.

Prediction: England to win to nil at 21/20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Betting Recap - 6/20-6/26
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (Monday, June 20 through Sunday, June 26)

-- Underdogs went 8-7 straight up (SU)
-- Underdogs went 12-3 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 9-6 SU record
-- Road teams posted a 9-6 ATS record
-- The 'over' went 8-7

Team Betting Notes

-- The 'over' edged out the 'under' again this week in WNBA play, but it wasn't as dominant as in the past. Still, the 'over' is 54-34 (61.4%) this season, and the 'under' has managed to go only .500 one time through the first seven weeks.

-- Dallas (7-8) is a hard team to figure out. They swept a home-and-home against the Mercury June 18-21, but stumbled at home against Indiana (6-9) despite being a six-point favorite at home. One thing that is consistent for the Wings is the 'over, as it cashed for an eighth straight game Saturday. Over the past 13 games the 'over' is 12-1 for the Wings.

-- San Antonio (3-11) has had difficulty putting together a strong effort for a full game, but they did just that in a 73-69 victory over Atlanta (8-4) as five-point 'dogs. The Stars have suddenly pieced it together, at least against the number, covering four straight heading into their game in D.C. Wednesday.

-- The Dream started off on fire this season, opening 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in their first six games. However, Atlanta has dropped three in a row straight up, and they're a dismal 1-7 ATS over the past eight since that 5-1 ATS run to open.

-- Seattle (5-9) rolled to a 98-81 win over the Sun, easily covering a 7 1/2-point number to snap an 0-3 ATS skid. Two of Seattle's five victories have come at the expense of the Sun. Unfortunately, the two sides do not meet again in the regular season.

-- The Sun have had difficulty against the spread lately, failing to cover in four straight after posting a respectable 5-2 ATS run from May 26-June 12.

-- Connecticut (3-12) suffered a loss at the hands of Los Angeles (13-1), which was not surprising in the least. However, the Sun was able to slap the brakes on an 0-4 ATS skid, covering for the first time since June 12 in Atlanta. Connecticut is actually a respectable 3-3-1 ATS in seven road games this season.

-- After opening the season 8-2 ATS through the first 10 outings, the Sparks are just 1-3 ATS over the past four heading into their game Tuesday at home against the Wings.

-- All of a sudden Minnesota (13-2) is in a bit of a tailspin. Spitting a home-and-home with L.A. was not terribly surprising, as the Lynx were due for a loss. But their 24-point shellacking at the hands of Washington (8-8) was extemely shocking. The Lynx have followed up their 13-game WNBA record win streak to start a season with back-to-back losses, and they have failed to cover in two straight for the first time this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 3:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$5600 - CLAIM $8000 W/A


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 SOULFUL DELIGHT 8/1


# 5 CHARLES RAY 9/2


# 6 AMERICANGENERATION 2/1


SOULFUL DELIGHT is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the consortium and just look at the nice morning line. This fine animal looks very good. Check out the 79 average speed fig. The 82 average class figure may give this gelding a distinct edge in the grouping. Many race players will recognize the excellent speed rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this group. CHARLES RAY - Have to support a nice horse coming out of the The Meadows 5 post. The win statistic is excellent, way above normal. Excellent driver Rawlings should find the pace of today's race to this horse's liking - could be a good wager. AMERICANGENERATION - Hard to put finger on it, but strongly consider him for this race. Recorded a 72 TrackMaster Speed Rating in last race. A duplicate effort here should get the win for this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$11000 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $15,000 TO $18,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 9 CS EYE 5/1


# 4 NICHOLAS RYAN 6/1


# 2 INTENDED STYLE 3/1


Look no further than CS EYE as the wager in this race. Clear-cut driver/conditioner markings make this race horse a strong choice. Very likely will be putting money down in here. Talk about a dynamic duo, Henry and Weller have some of the best driver-handler markings at the track. Has one of the best win rates in the group of horses and may be able to add to those statistics in this race. NICHOLAS RYAN - He has been racing very well and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the best in the race. This gelding has been going to post against some of the most competitive horses in this field of starters lately. INTENDED STYLE - The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name in a newspaper. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small bet. Talk about a dynamic duo, Filion and Moreau have some of the best driver/trainer ratings at the track.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19200 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 21, 2016 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE IN 2016 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 TIP TOP LADY 7/2


# 4 YUMA THURMAN 10/1


# 6 SKY RANT 3/1


My choice in this race is TIP TOP LADY. Ought to be given a chance here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone. Had one of the strongest Speed Figures of this group of animals in her last contest. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. YUMA THURMAN - With one of the most favorable riders in terms of returns at the window, don't count this mare out. Fulmer has her trained quite well to break speedily out of the starting gate. SKY RANT - Evans has one of the top winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. Overall the speed figures of this racer look formidable in this outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE APRIL 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 ROCKET SIXTYSIX 8/1


# 7 DUCKS DOCK 12/1


# 5 CHASE LANE 6/1


I think ROCKET SIXTYSIX is a competitive selection and is a quite good value wager given the line. He has been running strongly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. The handler wheels this entrant back almost immediately to race again. DUCKS DOCK - With Hernandezorteg getting the mount, watch out for this horse. Must be given consideration based on the solid Equibase speed fig earned in the last race. CHASE LANE - He must be given a chance given the formidable speed figs. The speed fig of 83 from his last race looks respectable in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:34pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,100 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 LAKE PONCHATRAIN (ML=5/2)
#3 SECRET GARDEN (ML=6/1)


LAKE PONCHATRAIN - This filly is in fine form. Finished first on May 30th. On May 30th this filly shipped in to win and looks good right back. When a thoroughbred finishes in the top three as often as this filly does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. The 91 last race speed rating looks sound on paper. SECRET GARDEN - This mare is in excellent form right now. Ended up third in the last race and comes back promptly. Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Mare is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a big race today. PP lines show this thoroughbred with 3 improving Equibase speed figures. Hole should be on a live one in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 IN MID HEIR (ML=6/5), #6 FLATTERING BEA (ML=3/1),

IN MID HEIR - May 30th is the last time we've seen this mare around. Have to be a little bit leery. FLATTERING BEA - Just can't wager on this entrant. Didn't show me anything last race out or on Apr 23rd.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 LAKE PONCHATRAIN to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Delaware Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 JOCKEY JILLS DREAM (ML=5/1)


JOCKEY JILLS DREAM - As long as Pedroza keeps this racer off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a huge winner. Looking like a possible overlay in this event at morning odds of 5/1. Finished fourth in last race at Delaware Park but was close at the end. Ran a lackluster race at Delaware Park last time around the track. Racing without the slop puts this gelding at the top of my list of contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BOOBOOTHEBARBARIAN (ML=9/5), #6 PATRIOTIC (ML=7/2), #5 WENDY WEND (ML=4/1),

BOOBOOTHEBARBARIAN - When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to notch a much better speed fig than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint. PATRIOTIC - I predict bad luck for this equine in this race. WENDY WEND - I'm always leery of any horse that earns his biggest speed figure on an 'off' track.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 JOCKEY JILLS DREAM to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 6/27 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


20-CENT PICK 5: 2,3,4,7/1,2,7/4,5,7/2,5,8/5 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,8/5/1.2,3/1,3,4,6,9 = $45

LATE PICK 4: 1,3,4,6,9/3/2,5/4,6,7,8 = $40

MEET STATS: 154 - 480 / $842.00 BEST BETS: 27 - 45 / $89.40

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 45 / $44.50

Best Bet: DOMITIAN HALL (5th)

Spot Play: PANEDICTINE (4th)


Race 1

(3) BEE IN CHARGE couldn't get close in the Goodtimes but was flying two back, fits this company much better and should be closer turning home here; top call. (7) WARAWEE ROO is perfect since returning from a short break and he is the one that will have to be caught. (4) SASS has also been on a roll and is likely looking to ride the pocket to victory here, which is quite possible. (2) MATZA MAN was a decent 2nd in his 2016 debut and he should factor again here but a smaller share is likely.

Race 2

(7) ZAGSTER faces much easier here and should get put into play early. He beats this group if given a decent trip. (2) DEWEY DON'T CHEAT was closing in late last week but the winner was too tough. His consistency should be respected, but he's still looking for his 2nd win. (1) MAKERS MASS ships in having won half of his starts this year. He has also shown he can take a lot of air and still finish quickly. Use him in your Pick 5 tickets. (3) GONNA FLY has a good closing kick which should get him a slice here.

Race 3

(7) MUSICAL RHYTHYM returns to home base after a rough trip in the Graduate at Tioga and he should get back on track here with a win. (4) OLYMPIC SON has developed the skill of closely tracking quick fractions and coming on down the lane. His improvement is noticeable and he could be a good price again here. (5) WHISKEY TAX has reached his best from and is another that can be dangerous here from close range. (2) FEARLESS MAN hung on much better last week and will likely set the pace again and hang on for a minor share in a similar trip.

Race 4

(5) PANEDICTINE's best trip is stalking rapid fractions then outlasting the leaders. There is a good chance that scenario could materialize here; call to repeat. (8) MYSTIC DEUCE was locked in behind a snail's pace last week. Expect a more aggressive try here. (2) INTENDED STYLE stole one on the front end last time and is unlikely to get a repeat of that easy trip. He is a contender, however and should be used on multi-race wagers. (10) TOPCORNERTERROR might sneak by them all if they battle hard enough early. He should be considered for exotics at a minimum.

Race 5

(5) DOMITIAN HALL goes to Auciello and Drury here and has been racing decently anyway lately; automatic play for me. (7) ALACRITY was driven much more aggressively last time as expected and was an easy winner. He can threaten here despite the step up in class. (8) YOURE MAJESTIC has been solid in every start in this class and should take one of the bigger shares here. (9) BIG RICH drops and may get sent hard here from the outset. If he clears to the front quickly, he could take this field a long way on the lead.

Race 6

(3) TONY SOPRANO went a pretty big trip from the 10-hole in the Goodtimes final but was had nothing to show for it at the wire. The improved post and easier company should make him tough here. (1) WILL TAKE CHARGE and (2) DIA MONDE both finished ahead of the choice last time but they had much better trips. All three merit inclusion in multi-race tickets. (5) MUSCLE HUSTLE lost all hope at the start last time but he will be a speed treat here if he stays flat.

Race 7

(1) KINGSTON SEELSTER raced very well chasing slow fractions in his debut last week. He can go forward off that experience although there are several in here that look like they could be live at first asking. (4) BIG BAD BILL is a full-brother to good local mare Bad As Leader, who won at 2nd asking after drawing the 10-hole in her debut. Use this guy in your early and late Pick 4s. (9) LOUIE THE SHARK enjoyed moderate fractions while leading until very late in his debut but the one that beat him looks like he has lots of potential. (6) SPORTS COLUMN ha finished quickly in both of his winning qualifiers and he is another that can't be dismissed here.

Race 8

(3) UFDRAGONS ROCKET was mired in brutal traffic around the final turn last week and it cost him any hope of winning. Filion is unlikely to make the same mistake twice; top call. (7) SURPRISE HANOVER was sent hard from the outset and used up early but still didn't fade badly. He should get an easier trip here and challenge for the win. (4) MOONWRITER raced his best mile of the year last week and he has licence to step up and win this now that he is in good form. (5) WALTZKING HANOVER gets Henry who will likely put him into the race earlier. He can take a piece of this.

Race 9

(5) CLASSIC VENTURE used a big third 1/4 move to win his second straight last time and although he faces tougher he may be able to extend his winning streak with the excellent speed he has been showing; slight nod. (2) CASH FOR GOLD switches to Auciello/Drury making him a must-use here. (1) RUBBER DUCK was thwarted by a slow pace last time now drops and moves inside making him a logical contender here. (8) O NARUTAC PERFETTO will be winding up from the back and can pass many of these and grab a slice.

Race 10

(8) FLOWERS N SONGS broke while on the move vs. some top local sophomore fillies. She should be prominent here if put into action early enough. (4) RISE UP RISE UP made big late gains last time and from an inside post here should be driven more aggressively. (6) ELDORADO OF GOLD raced tough in his past two starts and is a logical contender to throw on Pick 4 tickets. (7) AMITYVILLE LINDY is one of the best closers in here and will be coming late for sure. (3) PRINCESS CROWN stopped last time vs. better but looks pretty good if you put a line through that chart line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 6/27 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 208 - 605 / $1125.50 BEST BETS: 28 - 51 / $100.40

Best Bet: JJ FLYNN (5th)

Spot Play: BJ’S BEQUIA (5th)


Race 1

(3) KILLALY showed some promise as a 2-year-old in limited action and she makes her local debut now in the Banca barn; seems worthy of a long look in the opener. (1) CHEYENNE MOLLY gets needed post relief and is a big threat from this spot. (6) KEYSTONE PAULA shows two decent qualifiers for Erv Miller.

Race 2

(5) LIGHTNING RIDE jogged from the pocket last out and can repeat at a healthier price. (1) MARLA MCGIVERS faces a bit softer tonight and draws best with Sears driving. (7) TRACEY'S DESIRE has looked good since adding Lasix but is stuck in a tough outside spot tonight.

Race 3

(1) CARIBOU BEACH was overmatched in PA stakes action but should find this field much more to her liking. (3) SHIFT RIGHT was a well-meant winner in his debut for the Mike Russo barn. (8) DR J HANOVER qualified sharply at Gaitway for the Alagna barn with Zeron driving.

Race 4

I'm picking a horse who's winless in 54 lifetime starts but (2) STELLA'S PHELLA is always close and draws well in an absolutely dreadful field. Now or never. (8) GOLDEN GESTURE looks best here but is stuck in the eight hole. (3) AUSTIN ROCKS gets much-needed post relief.

Race 5

(2) JJ FLYNN has been facing much better and was actually a PA Classic finalist a couple of months ago; he should be able to handle these. (1) FASHION DRAGON returns locally with the best post and will be in line for a live trip. (3) WELL WELL WELL hails from good connections and is looking to snap his seasonal skid.

Race 6

(5) BJ'S BEQUIA got stuck in and finished too late last week; Allard-trained veteran has loads of back class to call upon. (7) MASTERSON never fired in a quick mile last week but the Milici trainee is capable of rebounding. (2) CHEYENNE SEEBER took a month off and freshened nicely in the morning.

Race 7

(1) TWIN B SWEETHEART makes his second start since arriving from Canada and he's likely to get a smoother trip this week; top billing. (2) NEW JOEZ upset many of these last week but was dq'ed for leaving the course; obviously he can be competitive tonight. (4) CHEYENNE TRIENGEL was racing well last month and seems capable of better.

Race 8

(5) MOTU MOONBEAM N powered off in his U.S. debut and appears to have more to offer. (3) SHOW TIME HILL raced well in NJSS action over at The Meadowlands for the Alagna barn. (1) UPSIDE SURPRISE faces tougher off a win but does draw best.

Race 9

(1) MC RUSTY is still looking to regain his top form but he draws best and note this barn had a couple of winners the other night. (3) MEETYOUATMIDNIGHT has raced decently in his last few versus similar. (2) WESTERN BAYAMA draws well for Burke/Brennan and must be considered.

Race 10

(4) KINGS BARNS gets needed class and post relief and figures to awaken big-time for Allard. (1) BULLVILLE KYLE is in good shape now and has proven capable with this type in the past. (2) TYLER has shown improvement since moving to the Banca barn.

Race 11

(5) SINGLE ME really hasn't put in a bad effort since arriving locally and I'll give her the call despite drawing outside her main competition. (4) HEAVENLY HILL couldn't hack the two-move trip last week; all other efforts have been solid. (1) JACLYN HANOVER rallied well from far back last week and now moves all the way inside.

Race 12

(6) DEETZY got a touch leg-weary deep stretch and had to settle for second but it was a solid eight-hole speed try and he can build off that effort. (3) PERFECT BET has hit the ticket in his last three local tries. (7) ELWELL is coming off a lifetime best last week but may have too far to come tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Delaware Park (7th) Barton Holt, 3-1
(8th) Lake Creek, 3-1


Finger Lakes (4th) My Red Cat, 5-1
(9th) Smart Thinking, 4-1


Mountaineer (4th) Fourth Top, 3-1
(5th) Rushmore, 9-2

Parx Racing (5th) Azure Dragon, 6-1
(9th) Surfer Moon, 3-1

Presque Isle Downs (3rd) Midnight Lovin, 3-1
(7th) King Minos, 5-1


Thistledown (6th) Vigilante Law, 6-1
(8th) Venture Road, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

June Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

You know the saying, “May flowers bring June showers.”

For Major League Baseball pitchers hurling during the month of June, showers are hopefully not in their immediate plans. Instead, it’s the hope of all MLB starting pitchers to stay around long enough in their starts to avoid having to clean up and go home early.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in June, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s June list.


GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arrieta, Jake - 8-4 (6-2 A)

Only Clayton Kershaw has been in Arrieta's stratosphere since 2015. The right-hander is in the right organization which has allowed his abundant talents to flourish and this season opposing batters are hitting a mere .168 against him. His effortless delivery and mid-90's fastball causes a lot of swings and misses as does his breaking pitches.

Cole, Gerrit - 10-2 (6-0 A)

Cole is now the ace of the Pittsburgh staff and expertly commands a two and four-seam fastball in the mid to upper 90's which he can sink or have riding action. After a sluggish start to season, his ERA is down to close to 2.50 and expect him to have another fine month. Note: Cole’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during June.

*Colon, Bartolo - 10-5 (7-0 H)

The 43-year old right-hander just keeps churning along on staff that is very talented and youthful. Colon knows how and where to spot his fastball, which he tosses 70 or more percent of the time and blends in a quick slider that has excellent depth. The fact is Colon understands his craft and wins.

Lackey, John - 11-5 (6-1 H)

Remember for years no pitcher in his right mind would want to pitch at Wrigley Field, now they line up for the chance. Being a talented young team helps and Lackey is the right fit, with fastball he keeps low in the zone and sinker opposing hitters cannot elevate. Through two months, the batter's Lackey has faced are at a lowly .209 batting average and his WHIP is sick 0.97.

Sanchez, Anibal - 9-4 (8-3 H)

The Detroit hurler has gotten off to a rugged start with ERA over 6 as June began. Sanchez's problems revolve around lack of pitch placement, not even having 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio and giving up more than a hit an inning. Of the 58 hits allowed, 11 have left the yard and if the Tigers are going to be contenders in the AL Central, Sanchez will have to throw like previous June's.

*Scherzer, Max - 11-4 (6-2 A)

If you research Mad Max's numbers, many are at or below career norm, yet he begins this month with an ERA over 4. The problem is too many pitches right down the middle, which is why he on pace to give up 45 home runs (15 thru May). If Scherzer solves this, he will have a great rest of the year.

Tillman, Chris - 11-3 (4-1 A)

After an off year in 2015, the Orioles righty has come back in a big way. When he's at his best like he has been this year, Tillman works his low 90's heater at the knees on both sides of the dish and his curve and changeup have sharp downward motion. He starts this month with hitters at .203 batting average versus his tosses.

Volquez, Edinson - 11-5 (7-1 A)

The Royals right-hander is doing what he does best, as in nine of his 11 starts for Kansas City he has induced double digit groundball outs. Volquez is still thought to be a power pitcher and gets numerous weak swings with tilted curve and deluxe changeup he will throw on any count.

*Zimmermann, Jordan - 12-5 (8-3 H)

After an unbelievable start, Zimmermann has drifted back to the previous career numbers. He pulled a groin late last month, but is expected to make start on June 3rd and continue from that point. His strengths include four pitches he trusts to throw for strikes and he has shown greater durability thus far in the AL.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Miller, Shelby - 6-12 (2-6 A)

After disastrous start with Arizona, having ERA over 7, maybe a trip to the DL with bad finger on throwing hand will settle Miller down, who looks like he is trying to throw a no-hitter on every pitch and is getting hammered. The talent has always been in place, just not the execution as this record shows. Note: Miller’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during June.

Verlander, Justin - 4-10 (2-5 H)

No longer equipped with high 90's fastball, Verlander tends to give up runs in bunches these days. He can be sailing along for three to five innings and then give up three or four runs in single inning. Without the necessary secondary pitches, he's become easier to hit a third time through the lineup.

Weaver, Jered - 5-10 (1-6 A)

It is sometimes tough to watch former aces who were among the best in the game, as their stuff is in decline and they are not close to what they used to be. This is the case of Weaver, whose fastball barely reaches 85 MPH, which makes his breaking ball and assortment of change-ups less effective. It is no accident at this juncture hitters are clocking him for .311 BA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Let the home plate umpire be your guide when wagering on baseball
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

On April 10, 2016 at the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park, southpaw Scott Kazmir of the Los Angeles Dodgers and World Series champion Johnny Cueto of the San Francisco Giants took the mound for their respective clubs in an N.L. West blood feud that featured an over/under of 7.5 runs.

The 32-year-old Kazmir, who had posted an incendiary 2.38 ERA in 18 starts with the Oakland Athletics last summer before being shipped to Houston at the trade deadline, entered his April 10 showdown against Cueto with a 1-0 record thanks to a 3-0 victory in San Diego just five days prior in which the lefty blanked the Padres for six innings while surrendering only one hit.

Cueto, who signed a six-year, $130 million deal with San Francisco last December, also entered that April 10 matchup with a 1-0 record due to a brilliant Orange & Black debut in Milwaukee in which he limited the Brewers to just one run on six hits over seven solid innings of work en route to a 2-1 victory.

So the stage has been set: Two talented and accomplished starting pitchers taking the mound on a Sunday afternoon in a ballpark that allowed fewer home runs than any other venue in baseball last season with a Las Vegas over/under of 7.5. This sort of feels like a game in which we might lean to the under, doesn’t it?

Hopefully all of you passed on that instinct because over bettors were celebrating a win after just three innings of baseball in which Kazmir and Cueto both allowed five runs to cross home plate in what eventually became a wild 9-6 victory for the Giants.

So how exactly did two of the game’s more accomplished starting pitchers find themselves so bruised and battered in the box score so quickly while playing at AT&T Park?

There are several reasons, actually, for what went down on April 10 ranging from Cueto’s potential nerves in his home debut for the Giants to Kazmir’s issues with consistency to two talented and highly productive lineups.

But the one reason that tends to slip between the cracks when trying to explain an anomaly game such as this one has to do with the man in the mask behind home plate.

Yes, I’m talking about the umpire.

When betting on baseball, whether it be the side, run line or total, it is essential to research and evaluate the man tasked with differentiating balls and strikes. On April 10 in San Francisco, that man was Alan Porter, who was behind the plate for 29 games during the 2015 Major League Baseball season. And in those 29 games, the over went 15-11-3 with an average of 8.79 runs scored per contest. But for those of you who are willing to go the extra mile, your research would have indicated that in games featuring an over/under of exactly 7.5 runs during the 2015 season with Porter behind the plate, the over went 6-3.

So far during the 2016 campaign, the over is 9-5 with an average of 9.86 total runs scored per game with Porter behind the plate.

This isn’t to suggest that Porter’s presence on April 10 was the sole reason the over hit in such immediate fashion, but it does help to partially explain why a matchup between Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir at AT&T Park could go from being viewed as a pitcher’s duel to a shootout in such a short span of time. More importantly, however, it helps to reinforce the point of how essential it is to study the umpire assignments before placing each and every MLB bet you consider.

Entering Saturday’s slate of action, with the 2016 MLB regular season approximately 46% complete, here’s a breakdown of some key umpire date that will prove useful in your baseball handicapping:

TOP FIVE OVER UMPIRES

Brian Gorman: 7-2 (.778), 9.8 runs per game
Jerry Meals: 10-3 (.769), 10.7 runs per game
Bill Welke: 10-3 (.769), 9.4 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game
Jerry Layne: 8-3 (.727), 9.3 runs per game

TOP FIVE UNDER UMPIRES

Eric Cooper: 9-2 (.818), 5.9 runs per game
Mark Ripperger: 11-3 (.786), 5.6 runs per game
Todd Tichenor: 10-3 (.769), 6.0 runs per game
D.J. Reyburn: 8-3 (.727), 5.7 runs per game
Larry Vanover: 8-3 (.727), 7.9 runs per game

TOP FIVE HOME UMPIRES

Bill Welke: 11-2 (.846), 9.4 runs per game
Clint Fagan: 10-2 (.833), 11.7 runs per game
Fieldin Culbreth: 10-3 (.769), 8.8 runs per game
Ted Barrett: 12-4 (.750), 10.1 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game

TOP FIVE ROAD UMPIRES

Adam Hamari: 11-2 (.846), 9.0 runs per game
Tom Hallion: 10-3 (.769), 7.9 runs per game
Jim Reynolds: 10-3 (.769), 9.1 runs per game
Ryan Blakney: 10-4 (.714), 9.1 runs per game
Andy Fletcher: 9-5 (.642), 9.1 runs per game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB roundup: Sale stops Jays for 13th win
By The Sports Xchange

CHICAGO -- Chris Sale earned his major league-leading 13th victory as the Chicago White Sox beat the Toronto Blue Jays 5-2 on Sunday for their second straight series win.
Sale (13-2) pitched seven scoreless innings before the Blue Jays broke the shutout with a pair of eighth-inning solo homers.
The White Sox left-hander won his fourth straight game, allowing two runs on five hits, walking two and striking out seven in an eight-inning effort -- his longest since a 2-1 complete game victory over Houston on May 19. Reliever David Robertson worked a perfect ninth for his 20th save.
Chicago took two of three games from Toronto after winning three of four at Boston. The White Sox have five victories in their last six games after losing 18 of 24 between May 23 and June 19. Toronto suffered its fifth loss in seven games.

Indians 9, Tigers 3
DETROIT -- Mike Napoli and Lonnie Chisenhall each hit two-run homers while Cleveland was scoring six times on four home runs off Justin Verlander in the fifth inning to overpower Detroit.
The Indians completed their third straight sweep of a three-game series with Detroit.
Josh Tomlin (9-1) struggled with his control for four innings before settling in to help Cleveland win its ninth straight game and improve to 9-0 over Detroit. Three of the six hits he allowed were solo home runs.
Verlander (7-6) allowed nine hits, walked two and struck out five in 4 2/3 innings, his shortest start since lasting 4 1/3 innings in his second outing of the year.

Marlins 6, Cubs 1
MIAMI -- Jose Fernandez struck out 13 and continued his dominance at home as Miami defeated slumping Chicago.
The Marlins took three out of four in the series against the Cubs, who have lost six of their past seven games overall. The Marlins, meanwhile, are six games over .500 of the first time since June 2012.
Fernandez is 24-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his career at Marlins Park. Fernandez, who is 10-3 overall this season with a 2.28 ERA, held the Cubs to four hits -- all singles -- three walks and one run in seven innings.

Braves 5, Mets 2
ATLANTA -- A first-inning homer by Freddie Freeman was the only offense Atlanta could muster against New York nemesis Bartolo Colon, but Bud Norris was even better.
Norris (3-7) allowed just four singles over seven scoreless innings and the Mets' bullpen imploded in the eighth inning as the Braves gained a split of the four-game series.
Freeman added a double, single and walk to his 13th home run, and Adonis Garcia connected for a three-run homer in the eighth inning

Twins 7, Yankees 1
NEW YORK -- Tyler Duffey retired the first 17 hitters and took a shutout into the eighth inning and Minnesota hit three of its season-high six home runs in the sixth inning during a victory over New York.
Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe and Max Kepler hit consecutive homers in the sixth as the Twins ended a three-game skid. Danny Santana, Eduardo Nunez and Juan Centeno also homered.
Duffey (3-6) pitched a career-high eight innings, allowing one run and two hits, but he spent a good portion of his 22nd career start flirting with perfection. The right-hander did not allow any Yankee to reach base through his first 75 pitches, getting eight groundouts, five outs in the air and four strikeouts. His bid for a perfect game ended on a 0-1 pitch to Aaron Hicks, who lined a double into right field.

Reds 3, Padres 0
CINCINNATI -- Anthony DeSclafani pitched eight shutout innings and Jay Bruce homered as Cincinnati Reds avoided the sweep with a victory over San Diego in the finale of a four-game series.
DeSclafani allowed just five hits to help the Reds avoid their first-ever four-game sweep at the hands of the Padres. It was the first shutout this season for Cincinnati, the last National League team to record one. DeSclafani (2-0) had five strikeouts, no walks and one hit batter. It was his fourth start since coming off the disabled list with an oblique injury suffered late in spring training.

Orioles 12, Rays 5
BALTIMORE -- Chris Davis hit a first-inning grand slam and Jonathan Schoop and Mark Trumbo both homered later as Baltimore wrapped up a four-game sweep of Tampa Bay.
The Orioles now head out on a nine-game West Coast road trip on a five-game winning streak. The Rays have dropped 11 straight.
Power carried the Orioles yet again, as Davis' homer in the first gave them a quick 4-0 lead. Schoop's solo homer and Trumbo's two-run blast gave the Orioles some insurance.

Royals 6, Astros 1
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Kendrys Morales homered twice and rookie Cheslor Cuthbert blasted a two-run shot as Kansas City topped Houston to avoid being swept in the three-game series.
Morales began the five-run seventh with a shot into the Astros' right field bullpen to break a 1-1 tie. It was Morales' 15th career multi-home run game. He homered in the fourth for the first Kansas City run.
Alcides Escobar singled before Cuthbert's home run, his seventh, on an 0-1 Doug Fister pitch. Left-hander Tony Sipp was summoned to get the final out of the seventh, but instead allowed a single to Alex Gordon, a double to Lorenzo Cain, which was his third hit, and a two-run double to Eric Hosmer.

Nationals 3, Brewers 2
MILWAUKEE -- Tanner Roark threw seven shutout innings while Jose Lobaton and Clint Robinson homered as Washington snapped a seven-game losing streak with a win over Milwaukee at Miller Park.
Roark held Milwaukee to seven hits and a walk while striking out seven to pick up a victory for the third time in his last four starts.
He had little to show for his work early on as the Nationals managed just one hit off Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson, who only lasted five innings in large part because of five walks.

Angels 7, Athletics 6
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- Jefry Marte hit a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the ninth inning as Los Angeles rallied for a win over Oakland in front of 36,715 at Angel Stadium.
Mike Trout and Albert Pujols each had three of the Angels' 13 hits, with Trout adding a two-run home run, as Los Angeles broke a six-game losing streak. Right-hander Huston Street received the win in relief.
Coco Crisp hit a grand slam for the A's and Marcus Semien added a solo homer.

Giants 8, Phillies 7
SAN FRANCISCO -- Conor Gillaspie followed a double by Ramiro Pena with a double into the right-field corner, providing San Francisco with a walk-off win over Philadelphia.
Angel Pagan had four hits, scored three runs and drove in a pair for the Giants, who provided manager Bruce Bochy with win No. 800 in his San Francisco career.
The one-run win was the Giants' 19th of the season. They've now won 13 of their last 15 games overall, 13 of 16 at home and 14 of 18 against the Phillies.

Cardinals 11, Mariners 6
SEATTLE -- St. Louis used 13 extra-base hits, including six solo home runs over the final four innings, to beat Seattle and salvage the final game of a three-game series.
Tommy Pham hit his first two home runs of the season with solo shots in the seventh and ninth innings. Matt Carpenter added a pair of homers, and Cardinals teammates Jedd Gyorko and Matt Holliday also hit solo home runs.
The Mariners had 12 hits and a pair of home runs in the loss. Nelson Cruz hit his 19th home run of the season in the third inning.

Rangers 6, Red Sox 2
ARLINGTON, Texas -- Texas jumped on Boston starter Clay Buchholz for three runs before he retired a batter and eased to victory.
The win moved the Rangers 22 games over the .500 mark for the first time since the end of the 2011 season.
Martin Perez won his sixth straight decision after allowing one run in six innings. That run came in the sixth as the Red Sox cut the Texas lead to 3-1 on the first career homer by Bryce Brentz.

Rockies 9, Diamondbacks 7
DENVER -- Mark Reynolds hit a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth, giving Colorado a 9-7 win over Arizona and a split of the four-game series.
Leading off the ninth, Trevor Story, who tied the game in the seventh with his 19th homer, was hit with a Silvino Bracho pitch on the left forearm. Bracho struck out Carlos Gonzalez and got pinch-hitter Tony Wolters to fly out, before Reynolds belted his eighth homer, a 464-foot blast to center on a 2-1 pitch.
It was the Rockies' first walk-off win of the season and the first walk-off homer of Reynolds' career.

Pirates 4, Dodgers 3
PITTSBURGH -- Los Angeles ace Clayton Kershaw lost for the first time in two months, giving up David Freese's three-run double during a four-run second inning that carried Pittsburgh to the win.
Justin Turner drove in all three Dodgers runs with a two-run homer and an RBI double against Pirates right-hander Chad Kuhl, who was making his major league debut, but it wasn't enough to support Kershaw in a rare uneven start by the former NL MVP and Cy Young Award winner.
Kershaw lost for the first time since allowing five runs in seven innings against Miami on April 26 -- giving up nine hits and four runs, striking out two and walking four in six innings. The left-hander hadn't allowed more than two earned runs in his 10 starts since then.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Dodgers (41-36) at Pirates (37-39)

Game: 4
Venue: PNC Park
Date: June 27, 2016 12:35 PM EDT

PITTSBURGH -- Los Angeles left-hander Scott Kazmir hasn't beaten the Pirates in Pittsburgh since 2008. The rest of the Dodgers must feel like it has been that long since they won there, too.

The Dodgers came into Pittsburgh on Friday streaking with nine wins in 10 games, and they seemingly were catching the Pirates at just the right time. Pittsburgh was in a June swoon with 13 losses in 15 games and a 5-17 record in the month.

Even after the Dodgers lost Friday and Saturday, they were counting on ace Clayton Kershaw to turn things around in PNC Park, where they haven't won since July 21, 2014. However, Kershaw -- the loser of only one of his previous 15 starts -- couldn't get the job done in a 4-3 loss Sunday night, giving up all four runs in the second inning.

"That's a good ballclub over there," Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner said. "We've seen how well they've played the last few years and, like I said, they take great at-bats, don't strike out a lot and put the ball in play. They did a pretty good job against the best pitcher in baseball."

Now, the Dodgers will turn to Kazmir (5-3, 4.52 ERA) to try to prevent a sweep of the four-game wraparound series that winds up Monday. Kazmir is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his last six starts, averaging 10.97 strikeouts per nine innings. He has faced the Pirates only twice in his career, going 1-1.

In his last start, Kazmir gave up two runs and eight hits in six innings during a 3-2 Dodgers win over the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. He did not figure in the decision.

Kazmir's mound opponent, Pirates left-hander Francisco Liriano (4-7, 5.17 ERA), hasn't figured in many wins lately. He has lost four consecutive decisions since last winning May 24 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he has dropped his past two decisions at PNC Park.

Liriano hasn't pitched since getting a no-decision against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday, when he gave up six hits and four runs in five innings. The Pirates lost 7-6 after Liriano and his bullpen couldn't hold a 6-1 lead.

"I thought, again, you saw some really clean sequences. The first and third inning are three up, three down. ... (But) some of the challenges were with runners on base," Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle said after that start. "(When he) works out of the stretch, it complicated some things. His stuff was good out of the windup.

"So we've got to keep working with him."

Liriano probably isn't looking forward to working against Dodgers outfielder Howie Kendrick, who is 10-for-22 (.455) against him with one homer and two RBIs.

Liriano probably won't be going against first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who will get a second day off in a row from starting, according to manager Dave Roberts. In June, Gonzalez is batting only .181 with one homer.

Kazmir has faced only five Pirates batters who might face him Monday, with only Sean Rodriguez (3-for-6) having multiple hits against him. He hasn't gone against Andrew McCutchen, the former National League MVP who went 0-for-4 Sunday before being ejected for arguing a called third strike -- his second in as many at-bats -- in the seventh inning.

McCutchen apparently feels an inordinate amount of pitches out of the zone are called for strikes against him, and he acknowledged his anger was building.

"It wasn't just tonight, it was over the span of the season," McCutchen said "It wasn't just those two calls. I felt like I got taken advantage of that last at-bat, I felt the bat was taken out of my hands."