West Finals Game 1 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
Western Conference - Game 1 - Series tied 0-0
Oklahoma City at Golden State (-7.5/224), 9:05 p.m. ET - TNT
2015-16 Meetings
Feb 6, 2016 - Oklahoma City 108 at Golden State 116 (Push -8, Under 233.5)
Feb 27, 2016 - Golden State 121 at Oklahoma City 118 (Thunder +3.5, Over 233.5)
Mar 3, 2016 - Oklahoma City 106 at Golden State 121 (Warriors -7.5, Under 230)
The Warriors are probably a bit surprised that this isn’t San Antonio coming into town to begin the process of deciding the West given how both teams were tied together in the regular season. Instead, it’s Oklahoma City, but there are no illusions that it will be any easier for Golden State to return to the NBA Finals and defend their title. Although they swept all three regular-season meetings, nothing comes easy against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
Sportsbooks have set the series prices at -350 for favored Golden State and enticing OKC backers with a return of +275.
“Golden State swept the regular season series from Oklahoma City, but the Thunder led in the fourth quarter in two of those defeats,” notes NBA expert Kevin Rogers. “Oklahoma City has won four of five road games in the playoffs, while Golden State has covered five of six home playoff contests. However, the Warriors are stepping up in class after knocking out a .500 Rockets squad in the opening round and drawing an overachieving Blazers' club in the second round after the Clippers lost their top two players in the opening round.”
With all due respect to Durant and Westbrook, plot lines start with two-time reigning MVP Stephen Curry, whose knee looks like it won’t be an issue barring any setbacks in the series. Although he struggled to find a rhythm at times upon coming back for Game 4 in Portland, Curry ended up shooting 50 percent in both of his games after missing most of the first round. He averaged 34.5 points, 7 rebounds and 9.5 assists while shooting 10-for-27 from 3-point range.
Although Westbrook is his counterpart in the lineup, the initial assignment of defending Curry will fall to Andre Roberson, whose length will be a major asset in attempting to slow him down. During the regular season, the NBA’s leading scorer averaged 35.0 points in the three wins over the Thunder, shooting 48 percent as the highest-scoring team in the league posted an average of 118.7 points in the three wins, twice scoring 121.
Curry’s 3-point shooting was erratic, since he enjoyed his most prolific game on a memorable Saturday night where he went 12-for-16 from beyond the arc. You remember, that was the game he won at the buzzer in OT, drilling his NBA-record tying 12th 3-pointer to the disbelief of everyone in attendance in Oklahoma City and captivated watching at home on national television.
Curry has also had a 1-for-9 effort from beyond the arc the first time he saw the Thunder, which is still his worst shooting game of the season from 3-point range at Oracle. He shot 5-for-15 (33 pct) in the most recent meeting, well below his regular season average of 45 percent. So, the Thunder have been able to make his life difficult, but they’ve lost all three times in this series despite Curry having drastically different levels of success, which means he may not be the key.
Klay Thompson shot nearly 53 percent and averaged 23.7 points in the wins, shooting better than 50 percent all three times. Draymond Green shot just 33 percent, a number weighed down by an 0-for-8 effort at OKC, but he made all the winning plays he’s become known for, helping anchor the defense while averaging 12.3 boards and nine assists. Although he’s been dealing with ankle issues, he’ll be ready to work.
The Warriors aren’t as certain about Andrew Bogut in Game 1, listing him as questionable with hip trouble, but should have their starting center available for duty. Shaun Livingston and Harrison Barnes are always x-factors, typically making Golden State unbeatable when they’re excellent. Those guys can sway the series, but deciding it?
How about Durant? Can he turn it up a few notches? Considering Elias Sports Bureau notes that he joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Wilt Chamberlain as the only players ever to average at least 36 points, 12 rebounds and six assists against an opponent they faced at least three times in a season, there’s not much improvement to be had there. He shot 53 percent despite often facing two of the top defenders in the game, Green and Andre Iguodala. Durant scored 37 points and grabbed five rebounds in the Game 6 clincher against San Antonio and had a 41-point game in the Game 4 where everything changed.
He’ll look to reverse a trend that saw him shoot just 1-for-7 in the last 3:00 and OT against the Warriors this season, but he’s still who you want with the ball in his hands down the stretch if you’re Thunder head coach Billy Donovan.
Which brings us to Westbrook, always divisive since his antics have cost the Thunder games in the past. He’s probably the NBA’s best athlete, unquestionably a superstar, but a look at his numbers in the regular-season contests tells you this series swings on his improvement. It rides on his decision-making.
Westbrook had his best game against the Warriors in that first outing, a visit to Oakland where he shot 8-for-22 but dished out 12 assists and committed just three turnovers, playing within himself despite the huge stage, one night before the Super Bowl also being played in the Bay Area, which made the Saturday evening basketball game an appetizer attended by a who’s who of celebrities.
His other performances simply weren’t as sound. In the game Curry thrived in, Westbrook was sliced up defensively, turned it over seven times, shot 10-for-29 and was an ice-cold 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. In the most recent March meeting, he was 8-for-24 from the field, including 1-for-8 from 3-point range. The Warriors provide him with multiple looks to limit his aggressiveness and try to bait him into settling for jumpers. Thus far, it’s worked.
Westbrook’s rock bottom in this postseason has been a 10-for-31 shooting performance in the last loss suffered against the Spurs, a nightmare of a Game 3 that looked like the beginning of the end for OKC. While Westbrook didn’t shoot the ball well in Game 4, he dished out 15 assists, turned it over just three times and was able to make sure everyone else got off, a chore he struggles with in balancing his ridiculous talent with the job description of a point guard. Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 this postseason when Westbrook dishes out double-digit assists. They’re 2-3 when he doesn’t.
Nobody should expect him to deviate too far from the attacking, Tazmanian devil-style that has made him great, but reining himself in enough to ensure the ball moves and everyone remains engaged against Golden State is a must if you’re going to beat a team this efficient.
Thunder big men Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Serge Ibaka must still help control the paint like they did against San Antonio, but the Warriors offer up a far different challenge than the Spurs did. They’ll have to stay focused on defense, but the Warriors are going to isolate them on occasion and make them look bad. Donovan will have to push the right buttons against reigning NBA Coach of the Year Steve Kerr, but he’ll need Westbrook responsibly at the controls to have a chance at pulling the upset to beat the champs four times. No one is doubting OKC has the talent to win a game or two, but getting out of the series will require Westbrook putting it all together. VI’s Rogers believes we’re in for a great series since Oklahoma City is playing its best basketball when it matters most.
“Currently, the Thunder are playing better than the Warriors. Golden State needed to rally from 16+ point deficits in two victories against Portland, while needing to outlast the Blazers in the series clincher of the second round,” Rogers said. “After the Thunder were blown out by the Spurs in the series opener, Oklahoma City won four of the final five games, including a pair of victories at the AT&T Center where the Spurs lost only one regular-season game.”
The Warriors went 39-2 at Oracle Arena during the regular season and are a perfect 6-0 there during these playoffs, winning by an average margin of 14.9 points per game. Golden State has a 5-1 mark ATS in Oakland, only failing to cover the series clincher against the Blazers. The Thunder were just 23-18 on the road during the season and but are 5-1 this postseason straight up and against the number. The ‘over’ has prevailed in the last three GSW games and two of the last three OKC games. The total for this Western Conference finals opener is nearly 10 points lower than two of their last three regular-season meetings closed at.
