ARI ATARI
Soccer | Mar 09, 2015
Arsenal vs. Manchester United
Arsenal+196
Arsenal to finally break United hex
English Football Association Cup, Round Six
Monday 9th March 3:45pm (EST)
It would be an understatement to say in the matter of Arsenal versus Manchester, the Gunners are 'Due'. Since the Fa Cup final win in 05' Arsenal, despite being clearly a superior football team at some points, so often seem to freeze versus United. Indeed in the last eleven attempts they have won one game over them. While history is against them and the pressure will be high on the current cup holders to defend the title, I fully expect them to go a step towards it on Monday night.
In truth neither team has been playing especially well of late despite picking up wins in the vast majority of games played. The form table for the calendar year has Arsenal second and United fourth but it truly doesn't tell the whole story, especially in United's case. Van Gaal is likely to play a very deep formation as he did in the first league game this season. Arsenal peppered the United goal that game with 22 shots, but due to a woeful performance from Wilshere, who is out of the game anyway and a freak inability to finish that day, they transpired to throw away what should have been a decisive victory.
Van Gaal knows that if United play an open game, Arsenal have Sanchez, Walcott, Chamberlain and ex United man Welbeck who can hit them hard on the counter attack with blinding pace. Being fed with passes from Ozil and Cazorla this is potentially devastating, and why no team in England at least will elect to play an open game versus Arsenal. Typically United and other big teams, in recent years have elected to play deep and soak Arsenals pressure hitting them on the break. Arsenal however versus Manchester City this year showed some maturity in attack and allowed City the ball a little more, allowing the opposition for a change, the ball in non threatening areas. I believe they will want to do this again, especially given United are at home for the game. If the aforementioned players can get on the ball on the break with United on the back foot I believe they will hurt United. If they can score an early goal, more so the case, and force United to attack, exposing themselves more at the back.
Mertesacker will return to the first XI given Gabriels injury. His only weakness is his lack of pace, but given that Wenger has put Coquelin in front of the defence (the first time he has played a combative midfielder since Arsenal regularly won things) and other than Di Maria, who is highly unlikely to get in a one v one situation with him given his positioning under Van Gaal, United have no real players of pace. Koscienly has matured this year and the two of them, with Coquelin acting as a shield in front of them should be enough to keep United out. A set piece is the only likely goal threat, especially if Fellani is chosen in midfield, but if he plays his lack of mobility will see Uniteds midfield outmaneuvered consistently as the game progresses.
Sanchez, while slowing down in the last month, has had an incredible debut year and his pace, trickery and instinct will trouble any combination of Smalling and Evans, if indeed Evans isn't retroactively suspended for the game. Sanchez scored a wonderful goal on Wednesday showing what he can do if given space or too much respect. Ozil has been in fine form since his return. He has covered more ground than any Arsenal player, silencing critics claims of his laziness. Giroud, the Monaco game apart, looks good and is in a rich vein of form since returning from injury. His stats this year make for very impressive reading. Santi Cazorla is likely to cause United headaches consistently in the middle with his two-footed, ability and has enjoyed a great year.As mentioned at the start of the piece, Arsenals results haven't told the full story of the season, but they are showing more signs of resilience and a testicular fortitude which they have been accused, often correctly so of lacking, especially versus United in the past. Coquelins added bite in midfield is the physical embodiment of this.
Van Gaal has admitted he is far from finding his best XI, and further from finding a system to accommodate them all. Van Gaal perhaps has the issue of too many cooks, with Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria, Mata and Herrera, among others all competing for a place in the attack. As we've seen it looks good on paper but it doesn't translate to quality football.
Van Persie is out injured though, as any United fan will confirm is something of a blessing, he has very much shown his age this year and will most likely be moved on in the summer.Rooney has been experimented with several times this year. It has been pointed out seasons before, that his passing range would allow him to drop deeper and play in a Scholes-esque position, but in truth versus a competent midfield he looks out of his depth. The game often passes him by and his pass selection becomes very questionable. He will likely play up front versus Arsenal but expect him to be well marshaled by the energetic Coquelin if he plays in a more advanced role.
This leads onto the Mata issue. Having paid a vast sum of money for him, it would be expected of him to play and play well, but with Rooney occupying his position and throwing in Di Maria into the mix, his chances have became more restricted, and again when given the chance he isn't necessarily in his preferred position.
Di Maria has been extremely disappointing after a great first few games. While being a more than competent technician, his greatest ability to hurt opposition is his pace. However the places on the field he receives the ball due to the positioning of his teammates, occupying the places he would ideally play, between the opponents midfield and attack, means that he can't employ his pace directly against the opponents nearly enough times per game. It becomes frustrating to watch these players taking up the same positions on the field, and often getting in each others way.
Falcao still has his great instincts, but his injuries have taken a very noticeable toll. His pace is at least a yard off what it was previously. Being dropped and rotated have evidently not helped his confidence and United are playing a very different game to Atlético (where he previously played to a consistent world class level). A combination of these things has left him looking a shadow of the deadly attacker we saw in Spain. In midfield Herrera has been quietly quite impressive when he has played, but isn't being given enough of a run in the team to get ahead. Ashley Young has actually had a decent year after a torrid time under Moyes. Januzaj has been very poor this year. Blind while very smart on the ball certainly lacks pace which Arsenal will look to exploit.
Van Gaal's 3-5-2 has been far from a success this year. If he does play it he has to fit 4 of the above attackers into various positions, assuming he plays at least one defensive mid, which leaves attacking players in unfamiliar territory for large portions of the game explaining why United have looked anything but a progressive, fluent football team throughout the course of the season. Almost all victories they have taken have came from grinding out victories instead of dominating teams as we saw under Ferguson. They have enough individual quality in these players to beat clearly inferior opposition. However versus teams of quality they look disjointed and very vulnerable.
I see Arsenal winning this fixture, and Sanchez being the difference maker for Arsenal. Additionally I see Giroud getting on the scoresheet. His record versus big teams is more than somewhat underwhelming but he looks determined to break that. Expect a big game from Ozil also, after Paul Scholes criticized him this week. If Arsenal repeat the performance and tactics they put in versus Manchester City this year, a clearly superior and more defensively competent side to United (though admittedly poor that day, caught out by the more mature Arsenal tactics), I expect Arsenal to score in both halves of the game and progress to the quarter finals.
SportsAtari
Bonus scoreline prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Arsenal
