STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/3/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 3/3/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Teams
-- Washington won its last six games (4-1-1 vs. spread).
-- Grizzlies won six of their last eight games.
-- Brooklyn won last four home games.
-- Bulls won/covered nine of their last ten games overall.
-- Miami won its last seven games (5-0-2 vs. spread).
-- Minnesota won five of its last six games.
-- Portland won last five games, covered three of last four.
•Cold Teams
-- Detroit lost its last four games, all by 8+ points.
-- Knicks lost their last six games (1-5 vs. spread).
-- Bobcats won/covered one of last four road games.
-- Milwaukee lost 23 of last 27 games, covered five of last seven.
-- Jazz lost five of last seven games, covered three of last four.
-- Nuggets lost ten of their last eleven games (2-9 vs. spread).
-- Lakers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Kings lost last three games, allowing 121 ppg.
-- New Orleans lost its last seven games (1-5-1 vs. spread).
•Totals
-- Last six Memphis games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-6 in Chicago's last 17 games.
-- Eight of last ten New York games went over.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Charlotte games.
-- Last eight Utah road games stayed under.
-- Six of Milwaukee's last seven games went over.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Minnesota games.
-- Six of last seven Laker games went over the total.
-- Portland's last five games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Pelican games stayed under total.
•Series Records
-- Grizzlies won eight of last ten games with Washington.
-- Bulls won eight of last eleven games with Brooklyn.
-- Knicks won 12 of last 14 games against Detroit.
-- Bobcats lost 14 in row versus Miami (1-4 last five vs. spread).
-- Jazz won five of last six games with Milwaukee.
-- Nuggets won three of last four games with Minnesota.
-- Lakers won five of last seven games with Portland.
-- Pelicans lost four of last five visits to Sacramento.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- MEMPHIS is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 100.3, OPPONENT 93.2.
-- DETROIT is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.
The average score was DETROIT 101.9, OPPONENT 102.5.
-- LA LAKERS are 6-24 (-20.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 50.0, OPPONENT 55.9.
-- DETROIT is 11-0 OVER (+11.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was DETROIT 52.0, OPPONENT 57.1.
-- RANDY WITTMAN is 21-6 UNDER (+14.4 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of WASHINGTON.
The average score was WITTMAN 96.2, OPPONENT 96.0.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- CHICAGO is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 94.5, OPPONENT 92.4.
-- MINNESOTA is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 101.1, OPPONENT 98.7.
-- CHARLOTTE is 18-5 (+12.5 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 48.5, OPPONENT 47.7.
-- LA LAKERS are 20-5 OVER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 53.4, OPPONENT 56.6.
-- MIKE WOODSON is 20-6 (+13.4 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of NEW YORK.
The average score was WOODSON 51.7, OPPONENT 43.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), revenging a loss versus opponent of 10 points or more, off 3 or more consecutive road losses.
(30-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (96.8%, +28.8 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -120
The average score in these games was: Team 107.3, Opponent 94.4 (Average point differential = +12.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1, +11.8 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (97-25, -0.3 units).
-- Play On - Road favorites where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 10 points or more.
(42-13 since 1996.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.8, Opponent 91.4 (Average point differential = +10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (43.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games.
(32-9 since 1996.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.3
The average score in these games was: Team 93.9, Opponent 95.3 (Total points scored = 189.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (65.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
-- Play On - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (DETROIT) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record, second half of the season, after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
(30-7 since 1996.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 57.1, Opponent 47.2 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (DETROIT) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
(30-7 since 1996.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49, Opponent 46.8 (Total first half points scored = 95.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
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Monday's Match-ups
#701 MEMPHIS @ #702 WASHINGTON
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, SportSouth (Memphis), CSN Mid-Atlantic (Washington) - Line: Pick, Total: 189) - The Washington Wizards seek their first seven-game winning streak in over nine years when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. Washington's current run reached six in a row with a 122-103 rout at Philadelphia on Saturday as Trevor Ariza erupted for a career-high 40 points. Less than three weeks after hitting a franchise-record 10 3-pointers at Houston, the Washington swingman buried 8-of-12 and also collected four steals in the win over the Sixers.
Memphis has won six of its last eight after a 110-96 victory over Cleveland on Saturday, the Grizzlies' best scoring effort since Jan. 5. Zach Randolph registered 23 points and 14 rebounds while Mike Conley and Marc Gasol had 22 points apiece for Memphis, which secured its ninth straight home win 92-89 over Washington last month. Bradley Beal scored a career-high 37 points for the Wizards in that encounter but backcourt mate John Wall was limited to a season-low five on 2-of-10 shooting.
•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (33-25 SU, 26-30-2 ATS): Memphis usually makes its mark as a defensive force but its recent ability to score at an increasing rate has been notable, and the fact that the club is healthy and balanced has a lot to do with it. Five players scored at least 16 points against the Cavaliers as the Grizzlies shot 54.3 percent from the floor in their third straight game with at least 107 points. Another factor has been the ability for shooting guards Courtney Lee and Tony Allen to both remain productive since Allen's return from a hand injury; the pair combined for 35 points - including a 6-of-9 effort from long range - on Saturday.
•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (31-28 SU, 33-25-1 ATS): Ariza is an eye-popping 18-for-28 from beyond the arc in his last four games, helping Washington vault to second in the NBA with a 38.2 percent mark from 3-point distance. Many players have had good shooting numbers against Philadelphia, however, and Ariza was limited to a 1-of-6 showing against the defensively sound Grizzlies last month, a sure sign of his streaky nature. He is one of several Wizards who tend to cool off at home, as the team shoots 36.1 percent from the perimeter at the Verizon Center compared to 40.1 percent on the road.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis is 14-6 against Eastern Conference teams.... Wall is averaging 24 points and 12.5 assists in his last two games.... Randolph has four double-doubles over a five-game stretch.... Memphis is 12-3 versus the spread in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... Washington is 19-8 against the spread when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 578 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 406 times. *EDGE against the spread =WASHINGTON. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 578 times, while MEMPHIS won 406 times. In 1000 simulated games, 610 games went over the total, while 366 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 553 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 412 times. *EDGE against first half line =WASHINGTON. In 1000 simulated games, 559 games went over first half total, while 417 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MEMPHIS is 19-13 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1996.
--MEMPHIS is 20-12 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--WASHINGTON is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 4-0 in Grizzlies L4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Wizards are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Wizards are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Wizards are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
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#703 CHICAGO @ #704 BROOKLYN
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, CSN Chicago, YES (Brooklyn) - Line: Nets -3, Total: 187) - The Brooklyn Nets finally enjoy some quality time in their own building after returning from a grueling seven-game road trip. Their first assignment will be a difficult one, as they entertain the red-hot Chicago Bulls on Monday night. Chicago broke out to a big early lead before cruising to a 109-90 victory over the New York Knicks on Sunday afternoon while Brooklyn won two in a row to conclude its marathon trek, capped by a 107-98 triumph in Milwaukee.
The Nets' quest to return to the .500 mark will be a difficult one, with the Bulls having won four in a row and nine of their previous 10 games. Joakim Noah was the star of the show Sunday - racking up 13 points, 14 assists and 12 rebounds for his fifth career triple-double - but may be hobbled after suffering a sprained ankle. Brooklyn hopes to have Kevin Garnett back in the lineup after he missed the Bucks game with back spasms.
•ABOUT THE BULLS (33-26 SU, 30-28-0 ATS): ESPN Stats and Info reported that Noah's 14 assists were the most by a center since Sam Lacey of the Kansas City Kings turned the trick in a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers back in December 1978. Sunday served as the culmination of an incredible transformation for Noah, who averaged 1.8 assists over his first five NBA seasons. Since then, the former first-round pick has become one of the best passing big men in the league, averaging 5.8 assists in January and February.
•ABOUT THE NETS (28-29 SU, 29-28-0 ATS): It has been nearly three weeks since Brooklyn played at the Barclays Center, and it can't wait to get back as it looks to build on a four-game home winning streak. Brooklyn prevailed in Milwaukee thanks to 25 points from Marcus Thornton, who wasn't even with the team when the road trip began. Head coach Jason Kidd told the Bergen Record afterward: "The last game is always the hardest, because you're thinking about getting home. I thought the guys came out from the start and put us in a position to win the game."
•PREGAME NOTES: Chicago leads the season series 2-0 while limiting Brooklyn to an average of 77 points.... Noah had 14 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in Chicago's 92-76 win over Brooklyn on Feb. 13.... The Bulls are 6-6 on the tail end of back-to-backs this season.... The Nets are 14-28 against the spread when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons, including 7-19 ATS 2nd half of the season.... Chicago is 24-8 versus the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO covered the spread 498 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN won the game straight up 549 times, while CHICAGO won 426 times. In 1000 simulated games, 559 games went under the total, while 420 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO covered the first half line 511 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 489 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 540 games went under first half total, while 421 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 38-35 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 40-33 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--37 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 38-34 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--40 of 70 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Bulls are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Brooklyn.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 2-0-2 in Nets last 4 home games.
--Under is 9-2 in Nets last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
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#705 NEW YORK @ #706 DETROIT
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, MSG (New York), FSN Detroit - Line: Pistons -4, Total: 207.5) - The New York Knicks are in the midst of a six-game swoon that has both the players and the coach questioning the team’s effort. The Knicks will try to end their slide and put together a better showing when they visit the Detroit Pistons on Monday. J.R. Smith questioned the team’s heart after a 23-point loss to the Golden State Warriors and coach Mike Woodson lamented his team’s effort after the first quarter of a 109-90 loss at Chicago on Sunday.
New York’s last three losses have come by an average of 22.7 points and the team has drifted well out of the race for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons still hold out some hope for the eighth spot but have dropped four straight and seven of eight themselves to fall 13 games under .500. Detroit has been nearly as bad as the Knicks on the defensive end of late and allowed an average of 119 points in losses at San Antonio and Houston last week.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (21-39 SU, 24-35-0 ATS): The Bulls raced out to a 16-1 lead just over four minutes into the game on Sunday and never let New York back into the contest. “It’s embarrassing,” Carmelo Anthony told reporters. “It’s frustrating and it’s embarrassing.” Anthony was the only starter to score in double figures while the starting backcourt of Pablo Prigioni, Raymond Felton and Iman Shumpert struggled to a total of 13 points on 3-of-17 shooting. The Knicks have dropped nine of their last 10 on the road and will travel to Minnesota to cap a three-game trip after finishing up with Detroit.
•ABOUT THE PISTONS (23-36 SU, 26-32-1 ATS): Detroit has surrendered an average of 109.9 points in the last eight games despite having some of the best rim protectors in Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Greg Monroe. The Pistons fell behind by 21 points in the first quarter against Houston on Saturday and could not pull out of the hole en route to a 118-110 loss. “We know the more games we lose, the bigger the hole we dig ourselves into,” Drummond told reporters. “It’s going to be hard to dig our way out of this and it’s tough. The games that we needed and we should’ve won, we lost them and that is going to bite us at the end of the season.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Knicks have won eight of the last nine meetings but the Pistons earned a 92-86 home win on Nov. 19.... Detroit leading scorer G Brandon Jennings is averaging 7.2 points on 25.5 percent shooting in the last five games.... Anthony slumped to an average of 22 points on 34.9 percent shooting in the last two contests.... The Knicks are 25-13 versus the spread when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last two seasons.... Detroit is 3-14 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the spread 606 times, while DETROIT covered the spread 371 times. *EDGE against the spread =NEW YORK. In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK won the game straight up 506 times, while DETROIT won 467 times. In 1000 simulated games, 560 games went under the total, while 440 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the first half line 578 times, while DETROIT covered the first half line 388 times. *EDGE against first half line =NEW YORK. In 1000 simulated games, 526 games went under first half total, while 474 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW YORK is 37-23 against the spread versus DETROIT since 1996.
--NEW YORK is 33-30 straight up against DETROIT since 1996.
--33 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--NEW YORK is 37-24 versus the first half line when playing against DETROIT since 1996.
--35 of 60 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Knicks are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.
--Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Favorite is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 10-1 in Knicks last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Pistons are 4-1 ATS L5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
--Over is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 Monday games.
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#707 CHARLOTTE @ #708 MIAMI
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, SportSouth (Charlotte), Sun Sports (Miami) - Line: Heat -11.5, Total: 196) - The Miami Heat are in the midst of their second-longest winning streak of the season as they look to wrap up a perfect home stand against the Charlotte Bobcats on Monday. The Heat have won seven straight and 10 of 11 to close within 2 1/2 games of Indiana for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 15 straight meetings with Charlotte and is trying to complete the season sweep of the Bobcats for the fourth straight campaign.
Perhaps the Heat are beginning to lock in for the playoffs, as they've won their past four games by an average of 19 points after a drama-free 112-98 win over Orlando on Saturday. "Defensively, we're flying around and we're communicating," Heat star LeBron James told reporters. "And offensively, obviously we're playing at a high level." The Bobcats have suddenly hit a rough patch, dropping two straight following a season-best four-game winning streak, but they remain in seventh place in the East.
•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (27-32 SU, 32-24-3 ATS): Charlotte will be happy to come back East after road losses to Western Conference powers San Antonio and Oklahoma City, though Miami has been the Bobcats' nemesis. The Bobcats have been much better at the defensive end this season, and they did a nice job on Kevin Durant on Sunday but didn't have an answer for Russell Westbrook in a 116-99 loss. Big man Al Jefferson continues to carry Charlotte at the offensive end, as he has topped 20 points in five of the last six games and eight of the last 10.
•ABOUT THE HEAT (42-14 SU, 26-28-2 ATS): Neither a broken nose nor the protective mask that has come along with it have slowed down James, who has topped 20 points in his last six games and 20 of his last 22. James and his masks have overshadowed teammate Dwyane Wade, who has averaged 23.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists over the past four contests. Miami has buckled down at the defensive end lately, allowing an average of 85 points over its past four games and improving to 32-2 when holding opponents under 100.
•PREGAME NOTES: Miami is 30-3 when leading at halftime and 32-2 when leading after three quarters.... Charlotte's 12 road wins are one shy of the single-season franchise record.... James has scored in double figures in 549 consecutive games, the fourth-longest streak in NBA history.... The Bobcats are 29-55 versus the spread revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.... The Heat are 10-2 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the spread 521 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 739 times, while CHARLOTTE won 241 times. In 1000 simulated games, 687 games went over the total, while 289 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the first half line 550 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 450 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 619 games went over first half total, while 351 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHARLOTTE is 19-17 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--MIAMI is 28-10 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--21 of 37 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHARLOTTE is 21-17 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--19 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Bobcats are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Miami.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Bobcats are 1-4 ATS L5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Bobcats last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Heat are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#709 UTAH @ #710 MILWAUKEE
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ROOT (Utah) - Line: Bucks -1.5, Total: 194.5) - Two of the worst squads in the NBA square off when the Milwaukee Bucks host the Utah Jazz on Monday. Milwaukee owns the league’s worst record and has lost 14 of its last 17 games while showing few signs of improvement. The Jazz have gotten slightly better since a 1-14 start but own the third-worst mark in the Western Conference after losing five of their last seven games.
Utah is 0-2 on a six-game road swing through the East after falling 94-91 to the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Gordon Hayward’s last-second 3-point attempt bounced off the rim as the Jazz fell to 7-22 on the road. Milwaukee is just 6-24 at home after dropping a 107-98 decision to the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday. The Bucks have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 10 contests and recently moved veterans Caron Butler, Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour off the roster.
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (21-38 SU, 27-29-3 ATS): Hayward came up empty on the final shot of the contest but his 21-point outing against the Pacers marked his best output since a 27-point effort against Minnesota way back on Jan. 21. He is averaging 18.7 points on 51.2 percent shooting over the past three games after struggling to a woeful 30.9 percent over his previous 13 contests. “I feel like I’m getting back to where I know I can be,” Hayward said afterward. “I’ve been slumping a little bit the last couple of weeks, but I feel like I’m starting to shoot the ball better these last few games.”
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (11-47 SU, 24-34-0 ATS): Right when it look like guard O.J. Mayo might settle into a hot streak after scoring 25 points against the Philadelphia 76ers, the veteran totaled just 23 points the next two games – including only nine in the loss to the Nets. Mayo recently returned from an illness and coach Larry Drew said the inactivity is preventing Mayo from finding his rhythm. “I don’t think his conditioning is totally back yet,” Drew told reporters. “He’s still trying to get there, but you’re starting to see him do some things.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Hayward scored 22 points and Derrick Favors had 21 points and 11 rebounds as Utah recorded a 96-87 home win over the Bucks on Jan. 2.... Milwaukee C Zaza Pachulia is just 5-of-26 from the field over the last five contests.... Jazz F Marvin Williams has scored five or fewer points in five of the last six games.... Milwaukee is 14-29 against the spread versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots/game on the season this season.... Utah is 33-19 versus the spread when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 541 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the spread 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, UTAH won the game straight up 487 times, while MILWAUKEE won 483 times. In 1000 simulated games, 515 games went over the total, while 485 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 532 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 434 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 486 games went over first half total, while 480 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 21-11 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--UTAH is 21-11 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--UTAH is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--22 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Jazz are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
--Jazz are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 7-0 in Jazz last 7 road games.
--Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 overall.
--Under is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
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#711 MINNESOTA @ #712 DENVER
(TV: 9:00 PM ET, Altitude (Denver), FSN North Plus (Minnesota) - Line: Unavailable) - The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are separated by one spot in the Western Conference standings but the gap seems wider as they head into their season series finale Monday in Denver. The Nuggets have lost five straight and 10 of 11, prompting coach Brian Shaw to replace J.J. Hickson with Timofey Mozgov in the starting lineup last week. The Timberwolves have won five of their last six and welcomed Kevin Martin (thumb) and Nikola Pekovic (ankle) back in Saturday’s win at Sacramento.
Martin scored 26 points in his return from a seven-game absence and Pekovic had 20 points and nine rebounds after missing 13 straight games. They took some of the scoring load off Kevin Love, who finished with 22 points in the 108-97 victory, his lowest-scoring game in more than a month. Complicating matters for the Nuggets is they’re down to one natural point guard with Ty Lawson (ribs) and Nate Robinson (knee) out with injuries, and recently acquired Aaron Brooks has struggled to carry the torch.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (29-29 SU, 31-27-0 ATS): The Timberwolves will look to finish their road trip with a 4-1 record after posting a 3-1 mark on their second-longest road swing of the season back in January. Minnesota can also even their season series against the Nuggets after dropping the first two games this season. Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio, who leads the NBA in steals at 2.45, should be able to exploit the lack of ball-handling depth for Denver and set Minnesota up with some easy transition buckets.
•ABOUT DENVER (25-33 SU, 24-34-0 ATS): Hickson was sent to the bench following a one-point performance in a 14-point loss Feb. 23 against visiting Sacramento and he seems to have gotten the message, averaging 13.7 points in a reserve role the last three games, which is slightly better than his 11.6 season average. Randy Foye played his first three NBA seasons in Minnesota, producing his career year in 2008-09 when he averaged 16.3 points. He averaged 16.7 points this January, 16.1 points last month and scored 16 in Saturday’s loss in Portland.
•PREGAME NOTES: A win would lift Minnesota over .500 for the first time since Jan. 23-24, the only stretch it has been above that mark since late November.... Minnesota backup C Ronny Turiaf is expected to miss his fifth straight game with a bruised right knee.... The Nuggets are 1-8 in the games Lawson has missed since going down with his rib injury.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--Note: There are currently no EDGES available for this matchup due to No-Line posted at this time. In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the spread 0 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 0 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 607 times, while DENVER won 373 times.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 37-35 against the spread versus DENVER since 1996.
--DENVER is 38-37 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--38 of 72 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 36-35 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--40 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Timberwolves are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Denver.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS L4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Timberwolves are 12-1 ATS L13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Under is 5-0-1 in Timberwolves last 6 Monday games.
--Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 after allowing 100 points or more.
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#713 LA LAKERS @ #714 PORTLAND
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, TWC SportsNet (Los Angeles), KGW (Portland) - Line: Trail Blazers -12.5, Total: 220) - The Portland Trail Blazers seek to record their sixth consecutive victory when they host the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday. Portland’s streak followed a three-game skid that was the franchise’s longest of the season, and the Trail Blazers also have All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge back in the mix after a five-game injury absence. Los Angeles set a season high for points and hit a franchise-record 19 3-pointers in Friday’s 126-122 win over the Sacramento Kings.
Backup guard Jordan Farmar scored a career-best 30 points and was 8-of-10 from 3-point range in Los Angeles’ offensive explosion against the Kings. The Lakers are tied with Sacramento for worst record in the Western Conference and are three losses away from clinching a losing season for the first time since the 2004-05 campaign. The Trail Blazers have the third-best record in the Western Conference and are 23-7 at home. Portland defeated the Lakers 114-108 in Los Angeles on Dec. 1.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (20-39 SU, 31-27-1 ATS): Farmar’s shooting exhibition against the Kings was stunning for a player who has missed 30 games with injuries and averages less than 10 points. He is a free agent after the season and the final 23 games will likely determine whether or not the Lakers even want to keep him around. “Just trying to have fun, man,” Farmar told reporters afterward. “It’s been a really tough year and trying to find some joy in the game and give us something to be proud and positive about.”
•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (41-18 SU, 32-27-0 ATS): Aldridge had 16 points and seven rebounds in Saturday’s victory over the Denver Nuggets in his first action since playing in the All-Star Game on Feb. 16. “My timing was a little off but it felt good to be back out there playing with the guys,” Aldridge said afterward. “I felt good, a little tired, but for the most part my body felt good and my conditioning felt good.” Portland also received strong performances from center Robin Lopez – who led the team in scoring (18 points) for the first time all season – and forward Nicolas Batum (career-high 16 rebounds).
•PREGAME NOTES: Portland has won 12 of its last 15 home games against the Lakers.... Lakers G/F Xavier Henry (knee) is expected to see action after missing the previous 28 games.... The Trail Blazers are 20-2 when holding opponents under 100 points.... The Lakers are 18-7 versus the spread in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... Portland is 20-10 against the spread when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA LAKERS covered the spread 507 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 493 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND won the game straight up 764 times, while LA LAKERS won 222 times. In 1000 simulated games, 673 games went under the total, while 306 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA LAKERS covered the first half line 528 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 618 games went under first half total, while 352 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PORTLAND is 52-33 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 49-37 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--48 of 85 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PORTLAND is 57-29 versus the first half line when playing against LA LAKERS since 1996.
--41 of 82 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Lakers are 8-20 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
--Lakers are 7-19 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Portland.
--Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Portland.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Lakers are 6-1 ATS L7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 overall.
--Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 overall.
--Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Under is 6-0-1 in Trail Blazers L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#715 NEW ORLEANS @ #716 SACRAMENTO
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, NBATV, FSN New Orleans, CSN California (Sacramento) - Line: Kings -3.5, Total: 203) - The New Orleans Pelicans are getting rocked during their seven-game losing streak and hope to have a change of fortune when they visit the Sacramento Kings on Monday. The Pelicans dropped the first three by an average of 3.7 points but were blown out by an average of 19 over the last four, including a 108-76 setback at the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. The Kings are trying to stay out of the Western Conference basement and are losers of three in a row.
Things are getting progressively worse for New Orleans, which began falling off the pace when Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday went down with serious injuries in January and is on the verge of matching a season-worst eight-game losing streak. The Kings’ three-game slide has pushed them back down into a tie for last place in the Western Conference with the Los Angeles Lakers, three games in back of the Pelicans. Sacramento is surrendering an average of 121 points during the skid.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (23-36 SU, 24-31-4 ATS): Even Anthony Davis is having trouble now for New Orleans, which fell behind in the first quarter and never had a chance in Los Angeles. Davis struggled to eight points on 1-of-6 shooting in the contest while Eric Gordon managed only two points on 1-of-13 from the floor. Davis left Wednesday’s loss at Dallas with a shoulder injury but came back two days later to put up 32 points and nine rebounds at Phoenix before falling flat against the Clippers’ front line.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (20-39 SU, 25-32-2 ATS): Sacramento got 41 points from Rudy Gay in a 114-97 win at New Orleans on Jan. 21 and the veteran forward continues to provide bulk scoring for Sacramento. Gay is averaging 28.3 points on 54.7 percent shooting in the last four games and hit four 3-pointers in Saturday’s 108-97 home loss to the Timberwolves. The Kings got DeMarcus Cousins back from a one-game suspension in that contest and the center collected 21 points, 17 rebounds and three blocks in his return.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Pelicans are 10-22 on the road and 0-3 on their current five-game trip.... Sacramento F Carl Landry (knee) missed the last two games and is day-to-day.... New Orleans F and former King Tyreke Evans is averaging 21 points in two games against his former team.... The Kings are 9-20 versus the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.... New Orleans is 16-29 against the spread versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the spread 559 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 441 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO won the game straight up 636 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 337 times. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went under the total, while 472 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 525 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 424 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 527 games went under first half total, while 473 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SACRAMENTO is 29-19 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 25-24 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--27 of 48 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 29-19 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--25 of 49 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pelicans are 6-16 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Pelicans are 3-15-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento.
--Over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 23-10 ATS in the last 33 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pelicans are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
--Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Pelicans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Over is 7-0 in Kings last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
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