Final Four lines hit the board and early betting action causes adjustments
North Carolina is back in the Final Four for the second straight year, getting there with a thrilling victory Sunday in the South Region final.
We’ve got a fascinating Final Four on tap, with one blueblood and a whole lot of new blood. Patrick Everson checks on the opening lines for Saturday’s national semifinals, with insights from Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)
For all the years Gonzaga has been in the NCAA Tournament, often as a high seed, this will mark its first trip to the Final Four. The Bulldogs (36-1 SU, 23-9-2 ATS) have a nearly perfect record on the floor, and for much of the season were the best team against the oddsmakers. The Zags rate No. 2 now, cashing more than 71 percent of the time.
Mark Few’s squad had tough second- and third-round games, fending off No. 8 seed Northwestern and No. 4 seed West Virginia. But the Zags had no such issues with tourney upstart and No. 11 seed Xavier in the Elite Eight, pummeling the Musketeers 83-59 as an 8.5-point favorite Saturday.
South Carolina is also making its first trip to the Final Four, and a surprising one at that, when one looks at how Frank Martin’s team entered the tournament. The Gamecocks (26-10 SU, 15-16-2 ATS) went 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in seven games prior to the NCAAs, but have caught fire the last week and a half.
South Carolina drubbed No. 10 Marquette by 20 in the tourney opener, then upset No. 2 seed Duke 88-81 as a 6.5-point underdog. Another 20-point win followed in the Sweet 16, over No. 3 Baylor, and the Gamecocks sealed their trip to Glendale, Ariz., by outlasting SEC rival and fourth-seeded Florida 77-70 as a 3-point ‘dog in the East Region final Sunday.
Bookmaker.eu opened the Zags -7 but quickly dropped that number to 6.5.
“We’ve seen early action on the Gamecocks,” Cooley said. “We've received a handful of limit bets from smart players. We could see South Carolina closing at +6 or less.”
Offshore books moving to 6.5 made it natural for The Mirage and MGM Resorts sportsbooks to open Gonzaga -6.5.
“That was basically the number out there, and that’s what we hung,” Stoneback said of the line for Saturday’s first semifinal, which tips at 6:09 p.m. ET. “South Carolina-Gonzaga is obviously not gonna be the marquee matchup, but as a basketball fan, I think it’s a really good matchup. We’ll see how Gonzaga handles a red-hot South Carolina team.”
No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5)
North Carolina is back in the Final Four for the second straight year, getting there with a thrilling victory Sunday in the South Region final. The Tar Heels (30-7 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) went back-and-forth with No. 2 seed Kentucky over the last few minutes, but got the dagger bucket in the last second to notch a 75-73 win and push as a 2-point favorite.
Carolina reached the national championship game last year, where it had a similar back-and-forth with Villanova as the Heels lost on a last-second 3-pointer, 77-74 giving 2 points.
Oregon played in the very first Final Four, in 1939, and ended up winning it all. But the Ducks hadn’t been back since then before breaking through this year. Oregon (33-5 SU, 21-15-1 ATS) lost 6-foot-10 forward Chris Boucher (11.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg) during the Pac-12 tournament, but recovered quite well in winning the Midwest Region.
Dana Altman’s troops had a couple tight victories in the second and third rounds, rallying to beat No. 11 seed Rhode Island and hanging on against No. 7 Michigan. But in Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Kansas, Oregon rolled to a 74-60 upset catching 6.5 points.
Cooley said this second semifinal, with an 8:49 ET start Saturday night, also received some limit bets early on from sharp bettors. And the total was already on the move, after opening at 148.5.
“The over is seeing respected money, and we've moved that up 1.5 points to 150,” Cooley said.
The Mirage opened North Carolina at -5.
