Bracketology Update
By Bruce Marshall
We're now beyond the midway point of the college basketball season. "Bubble" talk now permeates the discussion. In fact, we are less than one month away from conference tournaments commencing!
Thus, we begin to value our "Bracketology" updates a bit more as we more accurately project where many of these teams will slot on Selection Sunday.
For our newest update, we include not only each team's record, but also its "RPI" (Ratings Percentage index) number, a calculation that begins to become more illuminating as we get deeper into conference action. All straight up (SU) records and RPI are thru February 4.
Note that for all of our "Bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and usual favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round.
As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 19, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 17 and 18.
Remember, Selection Sunday is only five weeks away!
EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)
At Charlotte...
1 Virginia (SU 20-1, RPI-3) vs. 16 High Point (17-6, 111)...Even after last Saturday's late loss to Duke, Virginia is not yet in any danger of being knocked out of a top regional seed, especially after Tony Bennett's Cavs bounced back so strongly to whip North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Monday night. The Big South as usual looks up for grabs entering next month's conference tourney near Myrtle Beach. At the moment, a measured vote for Scott Cherry's High Point, with likely league MVP F John Brown, though Radford and Winthrop could also be considered co-favorites entering the conference tourney. Note that Cherry, a former aide to Jim Larranaga at George Mason during its Final Four season of 2006, is being mentioned as a possible successor to Paul Hewitt in Fairfax if the Patriots continue their recent slide.
8 Seton Hall (15-7, 45) vs. 9 Texas (14-8, 36)...Both of these sides are far from being safely into the field, but we project a bit down the road and expect the Selection Committee to give rather wide berths to the Big East and Big 12. The Hall, however, is wobbling with four losses in its last six, and the Longhorns continue to sit in the lower half of the Big 12. Neither are advised to test the Selection Committee's love for their respective elagues by finishing under .500 in conference play. These sides could both quickly drop into serious bubble trouble if they stumble a few more times in the next couple of weeks.
At Omaha...
4 Wichita State (20-3, 14) vs. 13 Yale (15-6, 51)...Wichita is now technically behind Northern Iowa in the Valley standings after last Saturday's loss at Cedar Falls, but gets the Panthers at Koch Arena in a few weeks and can still claim the top seed in the upcoming "Arch Madness" (otherwise known as the MVC Tournament) in St. Louis. We still believe the Shockers are a more-likely protected Big Dance seed than UNI. As for Yale, it has jumped out to the early lead in the Ivy, though will be facing Tommy Amaker's four-time defending league champion Harvard in a crucial battle this weekend at New Haven.
5 Virginia Commonwealth (18-4, 9) vs. 12 Iowa (13-8, 51) /Colorado State (19-4/28)...VCU is moving forward without key cog Briante Weber, now out with a season-ending injury, but Shaka Smart's Rams have good depth and still appear to be the team to beat in the A-10. They're also the only certain qualifier out of the loop for the Dance. In one of the play-in games at Dayton we slot a couple of teams sliding dangerously close to the cut line. Iowa took a three-game losing streak into Thursday's game at Michigan, but two of those losses were vs. Wisconsin, and road wins at North Carolina and Ohio State are just enough to keep the Hawkeyes in the field...for the moment. CSU's at-large credentials took another jolt when losing for a second time to Mountain West border rival Wyoming on Wednesday. It is no guarantee that the Committee goes three-deep in the Mountain, which appears down this season. But after losing twice to Wyo, how can we put the Rams above Larry Shyatt's Cowboys?
At Pittsburgh...
2 Villanova (20-2, 7) vs. 15 Georgia Southern (16-4, 107)...Villanova is probably sitting just outside of the number-one line at the moment, but is poised to slide into a top regional seed should one of our other projected number ones stumble in the next few weeks. The Cats are a good bet to be ticketed to the Pittsburgh sub-regional at whatever seed they claim on Selection Sunday. The Sun Belt race at the moment features Ron Hunter's Georgia State and loop newcomer Georgia Southern leading the pack. The Panthers were favored in last year's conference tourney before losing in OT to UL-Lafayette, but the Eagles scored a rousing win over State on Thursday to take over first place in the loop. Matters get settled next month in the conference tourney at the U of New Orleans' Lakefront Arena.
7 Baylor (17-5, 15) vs. 10 Texas A&M (15-6, 33)...Wouldn't this be a fascinating sub-regional tussle between former longtime rivals in the old Southwest Conference and the Big 12? Baylor might project a bit higher than a 7 seed, but we have pushed the Bears a bit down the Big 12 ladder and expect Scott Drew's bunch could be shuffled downward on Selection Sunday due to traffic from their conference. Even after a midweek loss at Ole Miss, Texas A&M looks to be part of a larger-than-expected SEC contingent that could number as many as six bids on Selection Sunday.
At Jacksonville...
3 West Virginia (18-4, 23) vs. 14 Iona (16-6, 52)...Though Bob Huggins' WVU stubbed its toe at midweek vs. Oklahoma, the Big 12 looks to be a likely 7-bid league, and the Mountaineers still project in protected-seed territory (though we have sent them a bit farther away from what would be their preferred sub-regional in nearby Pittsburgh). Tim Cluess' Iona is no stranger to the Big Dance and has drawn clear in the Metro-Atlantic, but this does not look to be quite as dangerous a Gaels side as in recent years, and any number of contenders (watch out for Manhattan, Rider, Monmouth, Canisius, and the "Pollsters" from Quinnipiac) appear capable of an upset run at next month's conference tourney in Albany.
6 Ohio State (17-6, 41) vs. 11 Tulsa (16-5, 43)...Just when we are about to move the Buckeyes up another line or two, they stumbled again on Wednesday at Purdue, so at the moment OSU stays in the 6-7 seed range despite owning one of the nation's most exciting frosh in high-scoring D'Angelo Russell. Tulsa, which returned four starters from last year's Big Dance qualifier under Danny Manning, is poised for a return trip to the Dance under first-year HC Frank Haith. If the Golden Hurricane can carry its current lead in the American all of the way to the conference tourney in Hartford, it will likely secure an at-large bid ahead of Selection Sunday.
SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)
At Charlotte...
1 Duke (19-3, 5) vs. 16 St. Francis NY (14-9, 146)/Albany (15-7, 135)...Perhaps we have over-reacted to Duke's rousing win last Saturday at unbeaten Virginia, moving the Blue Devils to the top line at the expense of the likes of Wisconsin, Villanova, and Kansas. But we project a bit with these brackets as well and believe Duke retains an excellent chance at a top seed. The America East race has been turned inside-out the past few weeks by the Great Danes from Albany, looking for a return trip to the Dance and having zoomed ahead of all else in the A-E with a blistering 10-0 start to league play. At the moment, the Terriers of Brooklyn-based St. Francis (NY) have the pole position in the Northeast, not insignificant since the conference winner has homecourt edge in a conference tourney played at campus sites. Looming close behind in the NE standings are Smithfield, RI-based Bryant, the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, Maurice Stokes' alma mater St. Francis (PA), Mount Saint Mary's, and Bob Beckel's Staten Island-based alma mater, Wagner. America East and Northeast champs have had to endure the 16 vs. 16 play-in games before.
8 Cincinnati (15-6, 31) vs. 9 Dayton (17-4, 35)...This would both a nice neighborhood battle...unlimited cheese coneys from Gold Star Chili to the winner! Cincy and Dayton both project into this seed range, so the local matchup is not impossible. The Bearcats look to be on course for a return to the Dance even minus HC Mick Cronin (out of decency we spare the use of our old nickname for Cronin), now on medical leave. We are not sure how deep the Committee looks in the A-10, but beyond VCU we believe Dayton looks the best bet for an at-large. Remember, Archie Miller's Flyers advanced to the Elite Eight last spring with a similar-looking team.
At Louisville...
4 Oklahoma (15-7, 18) vs. 13 William & Mary (14-7, 74)...Such is our respect for the Big 12 that we believe Oklahoma, even with seven losses, is likely to project into protected seed status. With a solid body of work in non-league play, plus good road wins at Tulsa, Texas, and Oklahoma State, Lon Kruger appears to have his best Sooner team in four seasons at Norman. And they're getting excited in Williamsburg, as the Tribe of W&M is on the cusp of its first-ever Big Dance invitation that came so close a year ago before losing in the last second of the conference tourney final at Baltimore vs. U-Dee. Stylish, long-haired sr. G Marcus Thornton (19 ppg) is the likely Colonial MVP.
5 Maryland (19-4, 16) vs. 12 Wofford (18-5, 46)...The Terps' numbers might suggest a protected seed, but their form of late has been a bit spotty, with a handful of close calls vs. decided underdogs (such as Northwestern and Penn State) and recent heavy losses at Indiana and Ohio State. So we put Maryland at a five in this report. Meanwhile, Wofford has taken command in the SoCon as it looks for back-to-back Big Dance trips under vet HC Mike Young and star G Karl Cochran.
At Columbus...
2 Wisconsin (20-2, 6) vs. 15 NC Central (17-6, 111)...Wisconsin is sitting as the best-rated Big Ten side at the moment and is poised to move into a number one regional seed should any of our other projected top seeds stumble in the next month. The Badgers will have an even better shot at a top regional slot if they can win next month's Big Ten Tourney, this year in Chicago. Looking for back-to-back Big Dance visits are HC LeVelle Moton's NC Central Eagles, who should be safely clear of the 16 vs. 16 play-in game as long as they maintain current form and don't get KO'd in next month's MEAC Tourney at the Norfolk Scope, once upon a time of the regional homes for the ABA Virginia Squires during Dr. J's earliest days as a pro hoopster.
7 Georgetown (15-7, 24) vs. 10 Georgia (14-7, 25)...Here are a couple of "G" teams who have slid down the seeding ladder in the past week, though safely remaining in the field...for now. Georgetown, recently in contention for a protected seed, has suffered home losses to Xavier and Providence within the past week and has slipped into the 7-8 range. As for Georgia, we can't penalize the Bulldogs too much for their competitive Tuesday loss at Kentucky, but a previous 17-point setback at South Carolina is the sort of result Mark Fox's team has to avoid in February if it wants to stay on the safe side of the cut line.
At Seattle...
3 Utah (17-4, 11) vs. 14 Valparaiso (21-4, 90)...The Pac-12 might only go three deep on Selection Sunday, but we believe Utah is surely going to be one of those three and perhaps rewarded with a protected seed, though we admit that any more efforts like last Thursday's loss at UCLA could hurt those prospects. Bryce Drew's Valpo has more wins (21) that any team in the country save Kentucky (22) and both Notre Dame and Northern Iowa (21 each, the same as the Crusaders). But the path to the Dance through the Horizon Tourney is tricky with capable Green Bay and Cleveland State lurking, and it is doubtful Valpo has a strong enough profile to merit an at-large bid if needed
6 Arkansas (17-5, 22) vs. 11 Michigan (13-9, 57)...Though we do not project any SEC team save Kentucky to receive a protected seed, Arkansas is likely to be one of several (we peg six in this update) SEC reps to get a call on Selection Sunday. We also stick our necks out a bit with Michigan, which took nine SU losses into last Thursday's game vs. Iowa. Injury problems have proven costly to the Wolverines, though that might prove a bonus at the cut line if John Beilein can keep his team in the bubble mix into March.
MIDWEST REGIONAL (Cleveland)
At Louisville...
1 Kentucky (22-0, 2) vs. 16 Bucknell (12-12, 182)/New Mexico State (13-10, 167)...Never mind the nuances of the RPI, expect Coach Cal's Cats to be the top overall seed on Selection Sunday. If they haven't already, UK fans can make their plans for the Louisville sub-regional. The Patriot champ has been involved in past play-in games, and this season's conference race has been turned inside-out with preseason favorite Lafayette taking on some water in recent weeks and CBS head honcho Les Moonves' alma mater Bucknell suddenly emerging along with unheralded Colgate as the leaders in the race. Also keep an eye on Army, with perhaps its best team since Coach K's years in the late '70s, and of course the memorable Bob Knight editions of the late '60s and into 1970. In the WAC, New Mexico State finally has skywalking G Daniel Mullings back in the lineup and will again be the favorite in the conference tourney at Las Vegas next month.
8 Indiana (16-7, 30) vs. 9 Oklahoma State (15-7, 29)...Indiana and its 80-ppg offense is a lot of fun to watch, but the Hoosiers' defensive issues are going to prevent Tom Crean from feeling too comfy about an at-large invite for the next several weeks. And if IU blows its chance at a bid, is Crean going to be in trouble? Meanwhile, Ok State is hanging at .500 in the rough-and-tumble Big 12, which should be good enough to get a favorable call from the Committee on Selection Sunday. Recent wins over Baylor and at Texas have the Cowboys looking more like an NCAA Tourney team.
At Jacksonville....
4 North Carolina (17-6, 16) vs. 13 Buffalo (15-6, 40)...With UNC finding creative ways to blow its biggest games, we do not think Roy Williams' current edition is a serious title contender as some recent editions. But there are an ample number of soft spots in the ACC for the Heels to win enough to get a protected seed on Selection Sunday. There would be a definite Tobacco Road flavor to a possible matchup vs. Buffalo, which has emerged as the team to beat in the MAC behind second-year HC and former Duke G Bobby Hurley.
5 Northern Iowa (21-2, 19) vs. 12 Murray State (19-4, 77)...We suppose UNI could warrant a protected seed, especially after last week's rousing victory over Wichita, but we project a loss in the rematch vs. the Shockers, which probably moves the Panthers down to the 5-seed range. Nonetheless, UNI looks securely into the field of 68, along with Wichita, San Diego State, VCU, and maybe Dayton as the only mid-majors who appear solid with their at-large credentials (yes, we know Mountain West and A-10 reps don't like to be called mid-majors!). Murray State has no problem embracing the mid-major label and looms as a dangerous sub-regional foe, as it has assumed command of the Ohio Valley. A possible showdown vs. recently-surging Belmont in the conference tourney next month in Nashville would be, as Ed Sullivan used to say, "a really big shoooo."
At Portland...
2 Arizona (20-2, 24) vs. 15 Texas Southern (11-11, 132)...Arizona was fancying itself as a top regional seed in the West for the first month of the season, but road losses at UNLV and Oregon State are not befitting a top seed. Even with a close December home win over Gonzaga, we think the Zags are more likely to grab the West's top seed, likely moving the Wildcats out of the region. The Houston-based Tigers from Texas Southern, with non-league upset wins at Michigan State and Kansas State (not bad results for a low-major team with four new starters!), would be the one SWAC rep that would likely be able to bypass the 16 vs. 16 play-in game.
7 SMU (18-4, 21) vs. 10 Purdue (15-8, 76)...After being perhaps the final team left out of the 68-team field a year ago, expect Larry Brown's SMU to be comfortably on the safe side of the cut-line prior to this year's Selection Sunday. A recent "mover" has been Purdue, suddenly up to third in the Big Ten and further solidifying its surprising at-large credentials with a midweek win over Ohio State. All of which is taking some of the heat off of HC Matt Painter, acknowledged by many Big Ten insiders to be on the hot seat this season.
At Pittsburgh...
3 Notre Dame (21-3, 27) vs. 14 South Dakota State (17-7, 115)...We're not sure why the RPI doesn't like Notre Dame a bit more (did the loss at Pitt hurt that much?), but the Fighting Irish look a solid protected seed to us. The Summit Tourney at hoops-mad Sioux Falls, SD is annually one of the wildest mid-major events in March. Next month, it might come down to a battle of the Dakotas between "South State" and "North State" (we project Scott Nagy's Jackrabbits from the South as the likely rep, but as we mentioned, anything goes in this annual free-for-all).
6 Butler (17-6, 14) vs. 11 Wyoming (19-4, 62)...The RPI doesn't seem to love Wyo very much, but the Cowboys are not showing signs of buckling as they have done (mostly due to injuries) the past couple of seasons. A pair of wins over border rival CSU should have the Cowboys ahead of the Rams in the at-large queue (though we still have projected CSU as an at-large play-in team). While the RPI doesn't seem to like Wyo too much, it is very much likes Butler, whose 14 RPI suggests that maybe the Bulldogs ought to get protected seed consideration.
WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)
at Seattle...
1 Gonzaga (22-1, 8) vs. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (16-7, 133)...After a couple of losses by Arizona, the Zags now project to the top spot in the West Regional and are a good bet to stay there as they figure, as usual, to cruise through the WCC. Shades of 2013's "Dunk City" at FGCU, as the Eagles have moved to the lead in the Atlantic Sun with a few remnants of their Sweet Sixteen team from two years ago still in the fold. But FGCU won't be sneaking up on anyone in this Big Dance. Wonder if HC Andy Enfield (currently struggling at USC) wishes he hadn't left Fort Myers?
8 San Diego State (18-5, 26) vs. 9 LSU (16-5, 39)...This doesn't appear to be as formidable of an SDSU team as Steve Fisher has put on the court the past couple of years. But the numbers suggest the Aztecs are one of the few mid-majors to be solidly in place for an at-large bid should they lose in their conference tourney (in the MW's case at Las Vegas). We're keeping close watch on developments in the SEC, where LSU has tended to play erratically, but road wins at Ole Miss and Florida suggest the Tigers are good enough to stay on the safe side of the cut line.
At Omaha...
4 Iowa State (16-5, 13) vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (18-3, 83)...Fred Hoiberg's ISU has advanced to the round of 32 and Sweet 16 the past two seasons; by that logic, do the Cyclones get to the Elite 8 this March? We'll see, and we expect them to have a protected seed to begin their next postseason quest. Hoiberg would certainly not allow his troops to overlook SFA, which made some noise for HC Brad Underwood (a former Frank Martin aide) last season when dumping VCU in the sub-regionals. First, however, the Lumberjacks have to take care of dangerous Sam Houston State and others in the Southland Tourney next month in the Houston suburb of Katy.
5 Michigan State (15-7, 38) vs. 12 St. Mary's (17-5, 68)/Ole Miss (15-7, 44)...We know that a five seed looks a bit aggressive for Michigan State's numbers, but we base the projection as much upon history as anything else, and current form suggests that Tom Izzo might have another team ready to peak late in the season. The other at-large play-in game has several candidates, and we think Randy Bennett's Saint Mary's rates a slight nod over BYU (which has stumbled a few more times) out of Gonzaga's WCC. As for Ole Miss, its midweek success over Texas A&M was huge and gives it four wins on the trot, definitely putting the Rebs back on Selection Committee radar.
At Portland...
2 Kansas (19-3, 1) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (16-5, 93)...The RPI apparently overlooks such info as Kansas' 32-point loss to Kentucky in its formula to rank the Jayhawks as the top team in its calculation. KU might still get a regional top seed, but plenty of banana peels are on the ground in the Big 12, and we believe Bill Self's team likely ends up a 2 or 3 seed. If EWU noses out Sac State and Montana in the Big Sky, it might be a team to watch, having won in pre-league play at Indiana and owning the nation's top scorer in rapid-fire G Tyler Harvey (23.4 ppg)
7 Stanford (15-6, 32) vs. 10 Temple (16-7, 42)...As mentioned earlier, this seems a rather barren season in the Pac-12, and we do not project the Committee going deeper than three teams on Selection Sunday. Stanford, however, projects as one of those chosen teams, as Johnny Dawkins has impressively stabilized the situation in Palo Alto (no more talk on The Farm these days about Dawkins being on the hot seat, either!). Fran Dunphy's Temple has been on the move since all of its transfers gained eligibility in December and the Owls own a big win over Kansas that can be cashed for value on Selection Sunday.
At Columbus....
3 Louisville (19-3, 12) vs. 14 UC Davis (16-4, 93)...Rick Pitino is now playing in the ACC, but the 'Ville has made a seamless transition to its new neighborhood and could be on the one or two-line by the time we get to Selection Sunday. As for Kimberly Guilfoyle's alma mater UC Davis, it has stayed at or near the top of the Big West race with the nation's top three-point shooting accuracy (45.2%!). Star G Corey Hawkins looks like he could be the difference-maker in the league, though don't forget how a sub-.500 Cal Poly side (still lurking) won the conference tourney at Anaheim last March. The Aggies, as well as top contender UC Irvine, will be looking for their first-ever Big Dance invitations next month at Honda Center.
6 Providence (17-6, 20) vs. 11 La Tech (17-5, 87)...Ed Cooley's Providence has been a mild surprise all season, not skipping a beat after the graduation of do-everything G Bryce Cotton. The Friars look well on the safe side of the cut line after their second win of the season against Georgetown on Wednesday night. Conference USA is a logjam at the top, but we don't think there will be more than the winner of the conference tourney (this year held in Birmingham) to make the field of 68. At the moment, a slight nod to Michael White's La Tech, a narrow loser in last year's conference tourney in El Paso. Keep an eye on ascending UAB, which gets home edge in the tourney next month, while Tim Floyd's UTEP could also be a team to watch in Birmingham.
Last four in: Iowa, Colorado State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss.
Last four out: Xavier, Miami-Fla., St. John's, Illinois.
Next four out: Boise State, George Washington, Rhode Island, BYU.
