Monday 2/17/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
Good luck on all your plays.

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English FA Cup TODAY 19:45

Brighton v Hull
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
BT1
More markets

Recent Form Last Head-To-Heads at Brighton Recent Form
A L A W A D A L H W H W
Most recent

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  1. 1 - 0
  2. 0 - 0
  3. 2 - 1
  4. 3 - 0
A L A W A L H D A W H L
Most recent

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Key Stat: Brighton have won their last four home games 1-0

Expert Verdict: Hull have more strength in depth than many give them credit for and they bolstered their squad further in January, so should trouble Brighton even if they rest players. Championship outfit Brighton have not been easy to beat at home this term but look too short to continue their FA Cup run.

Recommendation: Hull
1



REFEREE: Lee Probert STADIUM:
 

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Italian Serie A TODAY 19:45

Verona v Torino
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
BT2
More markets

Recent Form Last Head-To-Heads at Verona Recent Form
A W H L A L H L A W H D
Most recent

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  1. 0 - 1
  2. 0 - 1
  3. 1 - 2
A L H D A W H W A D H L
Most recent

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Key Stat: Verona have won eight of their last 12 home league games

Expert Verdict: Excellent home form is responsible for Verona's presence in the top six and their push for Europe can continue with a victory over Torino. The Gialloblu battled back from two goals down to draw 2-2 at home to leaders Juventus on Sunday while Torino had a very different experience, losing 2-1 at home to strugglers Bologna.

Recommendation: Verona

2
 
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NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, February 17

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UNC-WILMINGTON (8 - 20) at WM & MARY (15 - 9) - 2/17/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WM & MARY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
WM & MARY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
WM & MARY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 131-100 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 82-51 ATS (+25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
WM & MARY is 120-155 ATS (-50.5 Units) after a conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WM & MARY is 2-2 against the spread versus UNC-WILMINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WM & MARY is 3-2 straight up against UNC-WILMINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DELAWARE (19 - 7) at TOWSON ST (17 - 9) - 2/17/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DELAWARE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games this season.
DELAWARE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOWSON ST is 4-2 against the spread versus DELAWARE over the last 3 seasons
DELAWARE is 4-2 straight up against TOWSON ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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N CAROLINA (17 - 7) at FLORIDA ST (15 - 10) - 2/17/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA ST (16 - 9) at BAYLOR (16 - 9) - 2/17/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 5-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 4-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WEBER ST (14 - 7) at IDAHO ST (9 - 13) - 2/17/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WEBER ST is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
WEBER ST is 134-98 ATS (+26.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
WEBER ST is 59-28 ATS (+28.2 Units) in February games since 1997.
WEBER ST is 131-96 ATS (+25.4 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 145-189 ATS (-62.9 Units) in all games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 145-189 ATS (-62.9 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 53-79 ATS (-33.9 Units) in all home games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 53-79 ATS (-33.9 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 90-122 ATS (-44.2 Units) after a conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO ST is 3-1 against the spread versus WEBER ST over the last 3 seasons
WEBER ST is 4-1 straight up against IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DAVIDSON (15 - 11) at THE CITADEL (4 - 23) - 2/17/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DAVIDSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.
DAVIDSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
DAVIDSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
THE CITADEL is 3-2 against the spread versus DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
DAVIDSON is 5-0 straight up against THE CITADEL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS ST (7 - 17) at GEORGIA ST (17 - 7) - 2/17/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS ST is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISS VALLEY ST (8 - 17) at SOUTHERN U (14 - 11) - 2/17/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISS VALLEY ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISS VALLEY ST is 3-2 straight up against SOUTHERN U over the last 3 seasons
 
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NCAAB

Monday, February 17

Trend Report

7:00 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. FLORIDA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Florida State
North Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Florida State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida State's last 6 games when playing at home against North Carolina
Florida State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against North Carolina

7:00 PM
DELAWARE vs. TOWSON
Delaware is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Delaware is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Towson
Towson is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Delaware
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Towson's last 7 games when playing at home against Delaware

7:00 PM
UNC WILMINGTON vs. WILLIAM & MARY
UNC Wilmington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against William & Mary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UNC Wilmington's last 5 games when playing on the road against William & Mary
William & Mary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of William & Mary's last 6 games at home

7:05 PM
DAVIDSON vs. THE CITADEL
Davidson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Davidson is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against The Citadel
The Citadel is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Davidson
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of The Citadel's last 5 games when playing Davidson

7:30 PM
TEXAS STATE vs. GEORGIA STATE
Texas State is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas State's last 6 games on the road
Georgia State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
Georgia State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. BAYLOR
Oklahoma State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma State's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor's last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma State
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma State

9:05 PM
WEBER STATE vs. IDAHO STATE
Weber State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Idaho State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Weber State's last 9 games when playing on the road against Idaho State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Idaho State's last 9 games when playing at home against Weber State
Idaho State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Weber State
 
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Monday Horse Racing Spot Picks

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (7th) Miss Red Cloud, 8-1
(10th) Star of Sarava, 3-1

Beulah Park (7th) Bressie, 3-1
(8th) Mighty Albert, 3-1

Fair Grounds (3rd) Rolfs Rossini, 5-1
(4th) Follow the Kitten, 3-1

Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Suicide Curves, 7-2
(4th) Peppered Forest, 5-1

Gulfstream Park (1st) Nice to Regal, 3-1
(2nd) Solitary, 4-1

Laurel Park (1st) Red October, 3-1
(6th) Dancing Feather, 3-1

Oaklawn Park (3rd) Miss Clark County, 4-1
(7th) Majestic Shoes, 5-1

Parx Racing (4th) Coaltown Legend, 7-2
(5th) Shalane, 9-2

Sam Houston (1st) Frequent Reward, 6-1
(2nd) Zap a Prince, 6-1

Santa Anita (5th) Taylor Lane, 4-1
(6th) Ipolita, 7-2

Turf Paradise (2nd) Chocolate Caliente, 3-1
(5th) Iron Fortitude, 4-1
 
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Aqueduct Race 2 for Monday, February 17, 2014
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #2 - Post: 12:54pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 STREET PRINCE (ML=5/2)


STREET PRINCE - I like this horse. Should be familiar with this class level since he ran against the same type last time around the track at Aqueduct. Finished ahead of today's favorite last time out at Aqueduct. Can do the same again in this field. You have to really like that last race speed figure, 85, which is the best last race speed rating of this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 COST AFFECTIVE (ML=7/5), #6 FRAME (ML=4/1), #4 TAKAJO (ML=6/1),

COST AFFECTIVE - This runner will in all probability be way back as this group crosses the finish line. FRAME - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a short distance clash to be worth the risk at minimal odds in a sprint. TAKAJO - The Brain tells me to keep away from ponies in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in sprint affairs lately. Not likely that the speed figure he ********** on December 13th will hold up in this affair.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - STREET PRINCE - One of the class angles that my partner Solo Steve and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This thoroughbred is tops in my book.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #1 STREET PRINCE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #4 - AQUEDUCT - 1:52 PM EASTERN POST
The Hollie Hughes Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#2 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC
#1A NOTMYFIRSTTIME / #1 BE BULLISH
#4 MINE OVER MATTER
#5 FREUDIAN DILEMMA

For you folks who enjoy a little Thoroughbred Racing History to accompany your handicapping efforts this afternoon on "President's Day" ... this New York-bred stakes is named for a trainer who spent a lifetime in racing. Hollie Hughes retired in 1975 after training horses for the Sanford family for 70 years. In 1973, he was inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame at Saratoga Springs. Mr. Hughes became Gen. Stephen Sanford's head trainer in 1914 and saddled his first winner, at Saratoga, on August 27th of that year. After training horses for only two years he won the Kentucky Derby with a horse called George Smith. Hughes was in the army when George Smith won the Derby, with Preston Burch saddling the horse for the race. Hughes did saddle a number of stakes winners on the flats and over the jumps, including Sergeant Murphy, who won Grand National at Aintree in England in 1923. He also won the Whitney and Monmouth handicaps. Hollie Hughes was a native New Yorker. He passed away in 1981 at the age of 92. Here in the 36th renewal of this stakes event, #2 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC has won an impressive 5 of 8 in his career to date sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, has exceptional early speed abilities to compliment for this inner-track sprint, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in five straight, with four of those "board hit efforts," including a trio of wins, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS!" #1A NOTMYFIRSTTIME qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has hit the board in four of his last five "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 2nd race back.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4950 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 D'WILDCAT STAR 7/2

# 7 SUMMER PROUD 2/1

# 6 GOVERNMENT BAILOUT 8/5

I've got to go with D'WILDCAT STAR. She must be given a chance given the competitive speed figs. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. Will almost certainly go to the lead and could never look back. SUMMER PROUD - Her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone makes you take a look at her. Ought to be considered in this event if only for the quite good speed rating earned in the last outing. GOVERNMENT BAILOUT - Caro is serious with this one, wheeling her back in next to no time. Looks quite good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races as of late
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:19pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 CHEDDAR CHUB (ML=7/2)
#5 DOS ORO (ML=4/1)
#9 BABY FACE AIDEN (ML=5/2)


CHEDDAR CHUB - I really like sprint horses that make a quick turnaround. This gelding usually does his best running late. Look for him back early in the race and flying down the lane on the tiring speed horses. Was in a $16,000 Claiming race at Parx Racing last time around the track. That affair had an Equibase class figure of 97 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain contender. DOS ORO - Ranked at the top of the list in earnings per start. Another notice that this horse is the class of the field. BABY FACE AIDEN - Have to make this horse a strong challenger; he comes off a good race on January 27th. This jockey and handler have a beneficial ROI when they combine forces. This horse's last speed fig recorded on January 27th is tops in last race speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 STAR FACTOR (ML=5/1),

STAR FACTOR - This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 CHEDDAR CHUB to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,9] Total Cost: $6
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #7 - Post: 4:25pm - Maiden Special - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SILENT RULER (ML=4/1)
#6 PROMINENCE (ML=5/2)


SILENT RULER - Guidry is up for another event today after sitting atop this animal for the first try on Jan 18th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Guidry and Desormeaux perform well when they join forces. It's hard to beat a +60 ROI for a rider and conditioner. Ranks number one in the field in earnings per start. A dominant outing right here in this race can increase that bankroll. Desormeaux drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more information to believe this horse should run well at this level. PROMINENCE - This jock and handler have a fantastic winning pct when they team up. Asmussen adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a marked improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 GENERAL IKE (ML=3/1), #3 IRISH YOU WELL (ML=4/1), #2 CLASS LEADER (ML=6/1),

GENERAL IKE - The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued equine. IRISH YOU WELL - This steed ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat in today's race running that fig. CLASS LEADER - This vulnerable equine didn't go to the head of the pack and didn't close any ground in the homestretch last time he ran.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PROMINENCE - My research shows that first time starters fare much better when exercising at today's track. This animal fits the bill.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 SILENT RULER on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Santa Anita Park

RACE #7 - SANTA ANITA PARK - 3:30 PM PACIFIC POST
The Buena Vista Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS TURF GRADE II FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#2 EGG DROP
#7 PONTCHATRAIN
#4 TAPICAT
#9 STORMY LUCY

#2 EGG DROP takes a class drop (-5) this afternoon to enter this graded stakes event, which will negate the "ring rust" of a 77 day layoff. She is the overall speed and pace profile leader4 in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight starts, and embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency includes a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS!" Jockey Martin Garcia was in her irons for those five "boat hit results," with the four wins leading to a +418% return on investment in the process, and is back today for his 6th ride, gunning for a 5th win here in the "President's Day Feature!" #7 PONTCHATRAIN has also won four of her last five respective outings, including back-to-back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last three "adventures!"
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16800 Class Rating: 73

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 SOFIALEONOR 4/1

# 7 NOBODY'S A SAINT 5/1

# 3 ALONDRA SKY 5/2

My pick in this race is SOFIALEONOR. Has performed very well recently in route races, posting a nifty 77 avg speed rating. Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the halfway point of the contest. A solid 77 avg class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge against this field. NOBODY'S A SAINT - Ought to be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last outing. Is a very strong contender based on numbers earned as of late under today's conditions. ALONDRA SKY - In fine fettle, and coming right back again this time out. With Osorio uptop her, this filly will most likely be able to break out early in this race.
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/17/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________



***** Monday, 2/17/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
______________________________________________

Monday's Notebook
•William & Mary (-3) beat NC-Wilmington 54-50 Feb 5, their third win in row versus Seahawks, who were 1-6 from line. Tribe won five of its last seven games, but both losses were at home. CAA home favorites of 9+ points are 3-5 versus spread. UNCW won two of last three games after starting out 0-10 in CAA; they're 4-2-1 as road underdogs; six of their seven losses on road came by 9 or less points, or in overtime.

•Delaware won its last 13 games, is 11-0 in CAA; they were underdogs in three of four CAA road games. Blue Hens (-6.5) beat Towson 83-76 Jan 25, in foulfest with both sides taking 39+ FTs. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-15 versus spread. First road game in 19 days for Hens-- seven of their 10 CAA wins are by 7 or less points. Towson won four home games in a row- they're 3-3 as a CAA home favorite.

•North Carolina won/covered its last six games; this is trap game, since they play Duke Thursday, but Tar Heels won at Georgia Tech/Notre Dame in last two road games, after losing first three. UNC won five of last six versus Florida State, sweeping FSU by 5-21-21 points LY. Seminoles lost five of last seven games- they're 3-3 at home in ACC. ACC home teams are 8-19 versus spread in games with spread of 4 or less points.

•Oklahoma State lost its last six games, losing by 12-4-19 points in last three road games; this is last game of Smart's 3-game suspension. OSU lost 76-70 (-11) at home to Baylor Feb 1- Bears made 11-23 from arc. Cowboys lost last three visits to Waco by 19-41-10 points. Baylor won in double OT Saturday, its second win in row after a 1-7 skid. Big X home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-3 versus spread.

•Weber State won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they're 3-1 as road favorites, winning road games by 12-9-20 points, with losses at Northern Colorado/Sacramento. Wildcats won three in row, 10 of last 11 games versus Idaho State, winning 65-59 (-9) at home Jan 20; Wildcats made 12 of 25 from arc, were -7 (13-6) in turnovers. Big Sky home underdogs of 6 or less points are 11-5. Bengals are 5-2 at home (both losses are by 5).

•Davidson (-22) beat Citadel 62-43 at home Feb 1, but they trailed by a point early in second half; Wildcats won their last eight games, are 6-0 as Southern Conference road favorites, with five road wins by 11+ points. Citadel is 2-7 versus spread in last nine games; they're 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 4-5-13-18-21 points at home. SoCon home underdogs are 2-15 against the spread. Davidson is making 45.8% of its 3's in league play.

•Georgia State lost at Troy Saturday, its first Sun Belt loss in 11 games; Panthers are 2-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 9-1-26-20-10 points- they covered five of last seven games overall. Texas State is 2-3 as road underdog, losing road games by 23-5-4-7 points- they're 4-1 versus spread in last five games overall. Sun Belt home favorites of 8 or less points are 5-10 versus spread. Georgia State has 3-game lead for #1 seed.

•Situational Trends of The Day
-- WEBER ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WEBER ST 73.2, OPPONENT 68.1.

-- OKLAHOMA ST is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 68.4, OPPONENT 64.4.

-- DAVIDSON is 7-0 (+7.0 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was DAVIDSON 40.3, OPPONENT 33.4.

-- BAYLOR is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 32.4, OPPONENT 27.7.

-- TONY SHAVER is 19-47 ATS (-32.7 Units) after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better as the coach of WM & MARY.
The average score was SHAVER 64.1, OPPONENT 68.2.

•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- FLORIDA ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 58.9, OPPONENT 70.7.

-- FLORIDA ST is 22-5 UNDER (+16.5 Units) versus poor free throw shooting teams - making <=63% of their attempts since 1997.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 69.8, OPPONENT 66.4.

-- BAYLOR is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 29.4, OPPONENT 32.3.

-- N CAROLINA is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was N CAROLINA 33.2, OPPONENT 28.7.

-- DANNY KASPER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was KASPER 59.7, OPPONENT 64.7.

•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team versus the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games.
(41-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +116.3
The average score in these games was: Team 70.3, Opponent 67.7 (Average point differential = +2.6)

The situation's record this season is: (2-6, -7.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-9, +4.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (94-66, +13.7 units).

-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (DAVIDSON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two poor defensive teams (74-78 PPG).
(54-22 since 1997.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (6-70)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.5
The average score in these games was: Team 61.9, Opponent 72.9 (Average point differential = -11)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (26.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (8-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-13).

-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TOWSON ST) - a good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, after one or more consecutive overs, average defensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG).
(64-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +34.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 153.4
The average score in these games was: Team 74.7, Opponent 73.7 (Total points scored = 148.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 53 (57% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (14-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (177-126).

-- Play On - A favorite versus the 1rst half line (GEORGIA ST) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, excellent free throw shooting team - making >=77% of their free throws, in February games.
(72-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 35.3, Opponent 28.6 (Average first half point differential = +6.7)

The situation's record this season is: (7-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-18).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (153-146).

-- Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 (DELAWARE) - good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(42-14 since 1997.) (75.0%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 72.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.3, Opponent 36 (Total first half points scored = 69.3)

The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-8).
___________________________________________

Monday's Match-ups

#705 N CAROLINA @ #706 FLORIDA ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida State -1, Total: 143) - North Carolina looks to win its seventh game in a row when it visits Florida State on Monday. The surging Tar Heels are coming off a 75-71 victory over No. 23 Pittsburgh and hope to extend their winning run without peeking too far ahead to the Tobacco Road showdown with No. 9 Duke on Thursday. "We are just coming out with more fire and intensity, more attention to detail," sophomore guard Marcus Paige told reporters. "We're definitely a talented team and we're starting to figure it out."

Florida State snapped a two-game losing skid when it erased a 16-point deficit en route to a 67-60 victory on the road over Wake Forest on Saturday. Once considered a near lock for the NCAA Tournament, the Seminoles have dropped five of their last seven contests and are on the outside looking in with challenging games against North Carolina and Pitt on deck. "As of late for whatever reason, we have not gotten off to good starts even though we've had good looks with some of our best shooters getting those opportunities," coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters.

•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (17-7 SU, 13-11-0 ATS, 7-4 ACC): James Michael McAdoo notched his fifth double-double of the season with a game-high 24 points and 12 rebounds against Pitt. Paige, who leads the team in scoring (17.1) and assists (4.5), netted 18 points, including five 3-pointers against the Panthers. The Tar Heels are shooting a dismal 62.3 percent from the free-throw line and are on pace to break the 1953-54 squad's mark of 62.9 percent as the worst in program history.

•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (15-10 SU, 13-10-0 ATS, 6-7 ACC): Ian Miller led the Seminoles with 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting off the bench against Wake Forest. Aaron Thomas tops the team in scoring (13.5) and contributed 19 points and 14 rebounds versus the Demon Deacons for his first career double-double. Miller leads the team in free-throw percentage (87.7) and has finished perfect from the line on 15 occasions this season.

•PREGAME NOTES: North Carolina has won five of its last six games by double digits.... Florida State is ranked eighth nationally in field-goal percentage defense (38.6).... McAdoo has scored in double figures in 17 straight outings.... The Seminoles are 5-16 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.... North Carolina is 13-30 against the spread in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 39% after 15+ games since 1997.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the spread 539 times, while N CAROLINA covered the spread 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST won the game straight up 571 times, while N CAROLINA won 394 times. In 1000 simulated games, 640 games went under the total, while 335 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the first half line 542 times, while N CAROLINA covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 547 games went under first half total, while 421 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA ST is 16-16 against the spread versus N CAROLINA since 1997.
--N CAROLINA is 25-7 straight up against FLORIDA ST since 1997.
--15 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--FLORIDA ST is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against N CAROLINA since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--UNC is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Mon. games.
--Over is 6-2 in UNC last 8 overall.
--Over is 6-2 in UNC last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.

--FSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--FSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Mon. games.
--FSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Atlantic Coast.
_______________________________

#707 OKLAHOMA ST @ #708 BAYLOR
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Baylor -4, Total: 142.5) - While Marcus Smart was powerless to stop Oklahoma State from dropping its sixth straight game over the weekend, Baylor’s Kenny Chery put on a show many expect from the Bears’ star. The Bears, who host the Cowboys in a battle between the two most disappointing teams in the Big 12 on Monday, snapped a four-game home losing streak with Saturday’s double-overtime victory over Kansas State. Chery finished with 20 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds to post the sixth triple-double in school history.

Chery’s career game could serve as salt in the wound for Oklahoma State and Smart, who sat out Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma and will miss Monday as he completes his three-game suspension for shoving a Texas Tech fan Feb. 8. The Cowboys are in the midst of their longest losing streak since 2008 after beginning conference play with a 4-2 mark and like Baylor, face an uphill battle to qualify for the NCAA Tournament without a strong finish. Oklahoma State could help its cause with a win on the road, where it is 1-5 in league play.

•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-9 SU, 8-13-0 ATS, 4-8 Big 12): Phil Forte III entered Saturday 41-of-41 from the foul line at home, but went 1-of-4 as the Cowboys missed 10 of their 22 free throws in the 77-74 loss. Four of the team’s last five setbacks have been by six points or fewer and fatigue may be playing a factor as the starters have played 341 of a possible 400 minutes over the last two games. “We had some tired guys out there... they're down. This is as down of a locker room that I've seen,” coach Travis Ford told reporters after the game.

•ABOUT BAYLOR (16-9 SU, 7-11-1 ATS, 4-8 Big 12): Isaiah Austin, the Bears athletic 7-1 center, took advantage of an undersized Kansas State front line with a career-high nine blocks and could enjoy similar success against the Cowboys, who do not give regular minutes to a player taller than 6-8 Kamari Murphy. Brady Heslip, who drained half of Baylor’s season-high 16 3-pointers in Wednesday’s rout of Texas Christian, went 1-of-8 beyond the arc Saturday. Heslip had knocked down 26 of his previous 49 3-point attempts since joining the starting lineup five games earlier.

•PREGAME NOTES: Baylor is 21-52 all-time against the Cowboys, but has won seven straight home games in this series.... Oklahoma State’s bench, which accounted for one point in its Feb.1 meeting against the Bears and again Saturday, has been outscored by the oppositions’ reserves 136-60 during the losing streak.... Heslip is 13 points shy of becoming the 27th player in school history (and ninth under coach Scott Drew) to score 1,000 career points.... Baylor is 4-15 versus the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Cowboys are 2-12 against the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 640 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 341 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 531 times, while BAYLOR won 441 times. In 1000 simulated games, 748 games went over the total, while 252 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 596 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 362 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, 704 games went over first half total, while 261 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 20-14 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 24-11 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--OKLAHOMA ST is 21-14 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

--Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Baylor.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Baylor.

--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--OKST is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--OKST is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Mon. games.
--Over is 6-2 in OKST last 8 overall.

--BAY is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--BAY is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Under is 4-1 in BAY last 5 home games.
_______________________________
 

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