STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/17/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 2/17/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Monday's Notebook
•William & Mary (-3) beat NC-Wilmington 54-50 Feb 5, their third win in row versus Seahawks, who were 1-6 from line. Tribe won five of its last seven games, but both losses were at home. CAA home favorites of 9+ points are 3-5 versus spread. UNCW won two of last three games after starting out 0-10 in CAA; they're 4-2-1 as road underdogs; six of their seven losses on road came by 9 or less points, or in overtime.
•Delaware won its last 13 games, is 11-0 in CAA; they were underdogs in three of four CAA road games. Blue Hens (-6.5) beat Towson 83-76 Jan 25, in foulfest with both sides taking 39+ FTs. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-15 versus spread. First road game in 19 days for Hens-- seven of their 10 CAA wins are by 7 or less points. Towson won four home games in a row- they're 3-3 as a CAA home favorite.
•North Carolina won/covered its last six games; this is trap game, since they play Duke Thursday, but Tar Heels won at Georgia Tech/Notre Dame in last two road games, after losing first three. UNC won five of last six versus Florida State, sweeping FSU by 5-21-21 points LY. Seminoles lost five of last seven games- they're 3-3 at home in ACC. ACC home teams are 8-19 versus spread in games with spread of 4 or less points.
•Oklahoma State lost its last six games, losing by 12-4-19 points in last three road games; this is last game of Smart's 3-game suspension. OSU lost 76-70 (-11) at home to Baylor Feb 1- Bears made 11-23 from arc. Cowboys lost last three visits to Waco by 19-41-10 points. Baylor won in double OT Saturday, its second win in row after a 1-7 skid. Big X home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-3 versus spread.
•Weber State won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they're 3-1 as road favorites, winning road games by 12-9-20 points, with losses at Northern Colorado/Sacramento. Wildcats won three in row, 10 of last 11 games versus Idaho State, winning 65-59 (-9) at home Jan 20; Wildcats made 12 of 25 from arc, were -7 (13-6) in turnovers. Big Sky home underdogs of 6 or less points are 11-5. Bengals are 5-2 at home (both losses are by 5).
•Davidson (-22) beat Citadel 62-43 at home Feb 1, but they trailed by a point early in second half; Wildcats won their last eight games, are 6-0 as Southern Conference road favorites, with five road wins by 11+ points. Citadel is 2-7 versus spread in last nine games; they're 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 4-5-13-18-21 points at home. SoCon home underdogs are 2-15 against the spread. Davidson is making 45.8% of its 3's in league play.
•Georgia State lost at Troy Saturday, its first Sun Belt loss in 11 games; Panthers are 2-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 9-1-26-20-10 points- they covered five of last seven games overall. Texas State is 2-3 as road underdog, losing road games by 23-5-4-7 points- they're 4-1 versus spread in last five games overall. Sun Belt home favorites of 8 or less points are 5-10 versus spread. Georgia State has 3-game lead for #1 seed.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- WEBER ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WEBER ST 73.2, OPPONENT 68.1.
-- OKLAHOMA ST is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 68.4, OPPONENT 64.4.
-- DAVIDSON is 7-0 (+7.0 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was DAVIDSON 40.3, OPPONENT 33.4.
-- BAYLOR is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 32.4, OPPONENT 27.7.
-- TONY SHAVER is 19-47 ATS (-32.7 Units) after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better as the coach of WM & MARY.
The average score was SHAVER 64.1, OPPONENT 68.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- FLORIDA ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 58.9, OPPONENT 70.7.
-- FLORIDA ST is 22-5 UNDER (+16.5 Units) versus poor free throw shooting teams - making <=63% of their attempts since 1997.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 69.8, OPPONENT 66.4.
-- BAYLOR is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 29.4, OPPONENT 32.3.
-- N CAROLINA is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was N CAROLINA 33.2, OPPONENT 28.7.
-- DANNY KASPER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was KASPER 59.7, OPPONENT 64.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team versus the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games.
(41-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +116.3
The average score in these games was: Team 70.3, Opponent 67.7 (Average point differential = +2.6)
The situation's record this season is: (2-6, -7.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-9, +4.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (94-66, +13.7 units).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (DAVIDSON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two poor defensive teams (74-78 PPG).
(54-22 since 1997.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (6-70)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.5
The average score in these games was: Team 61.9, Opponent 72.9 (Average point differential = -11)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (26.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-13).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TOWSON ST) - a good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, after one or more consecutive overs, average defensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG).
(64-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +34.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 153.4
The average score in these games was: Team 74.7, Opponent 73.7 (Total points scored = 148.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 53 (57% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (14-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (177-126).
-- Play On - A favorite versus the 1rst half line (GEORGIA ST) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, excellent free throw shooting team - making >=77% of their free throws, in February games.
(72-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 35.3, Opponent 28.6 (Average first half point differential = +6.7)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-18).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (153-146).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 (DELAWARE) - good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(42-14 since 1997.) (75.0%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 72.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.3, Opponent 36 (Total first half points scored = 69.3)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-8).
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Monday's Match-ups
#705 N CAROLINA @ #706 FLORIDA ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida State -1, Total: 143) - North Carolina looks to win its seventh game in a row when it visits Florida State on Monday. The surging Tar Heels are coming off a 75-71 victory over No. 23 Pittsburgh and hope to extend their winning run without peeking too far ahead to the Tobacco Road showdown with No. 9 Duke on Thursday. "We are just coming out with more fire and intensity, more attention to detail," sophomore guard Marcus Paige told reporters. "We're definitely a talented team and we're starting to figure it out."
Florida State snapped a two-game losing skid when it erased a 16-point deficit en route to a 67-60 victory on the road over Wake Forest on Saturday. Once considered a near lock for the NCAA Tournament, the Seminoles have dropped five of their last seven contests and are on the outside looking in with challenging games against North Carolina and Pitt on deck. "As of late for whatever reason, we have not gotten off to good starts even though we've had good looks with some of our best shooters getting those opportunities," coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters.
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (17-7 SU, 13-11-0 ATS, 7-4 ACC): James Michael McAdoo notched his fifth double-double of the season with a game-high 24 points and 12 rebounds against Pitt. Paige, who leads the team in scoring (17.1) and assists (4.5), netted 18 points, including five 3-pointers against the Panthers. The Tar Heels are shooting a dismal 62.3 percent from the free-throw line and are on pace to break the 1953-54 squad's mark of 62.9 percent as the worst in program history.
•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (15-10 SU, 13-10-0 ATS, 6-7 ACC): Ian Miller led the Seminoles with 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting off the bench against Wake Forest. Aaron Thomas tops the team in scoring (13.5) and contributed 19 points and 14 rebounds versus the Demon Deacons for his first career double-double. Miller leads the team in free-throw percentage (87.7) and has finished perfect from the line on 15 occasions this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: North Carolina has won five of its last six games by double digits.... Florida State is ranked eighth nationally in field-goal percentage defense (38.6).... McAdoo has scored in double figures in 17 straight outings.... The Seminoles are 5-16 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.... North Carolina is 13-30 against the spread in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 39% after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the spread 539 times, while N CAROLINA covered the spread 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST won the game straight up 571 times, while N CAROLINA won 394 times. In 1000 simulated games, 640 games went under the total, while 335 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the first half line 542 times, while N CAROLINA covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 547 games went under first half total, while 421 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA ST is 16-16 against the spread versus N CAROLINA since 1997.
--N CAROLINA is 25-7 straight up against FLORIDA ST since 1997.
--15 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA ST is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against N CAROLINA since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UNC is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Mon. games.
--Over is 6-2 in UNC last 8 overall.
--Over is 6-2 in UNC last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--FSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--FSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Mon. games.
--FSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#707 OKLAHOMA ST @ #708 BAYLOR
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Baylor -4, Total: 142.5) - While Marcus Smart was powerless to stop Oklahoma State from dropping its sixth straight game over the weekend, Baylor’s Kenny Chery put on a show many expect from the Bears’ star. The Bears, who host the Cowboys in a battle between the two most disappointing teams in the Big 12 on Monday, snapped a four-game home losing streak with Saturday’s double-overtime victory over Kansas State. Chery finished with 20 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds to post the sixth triple-double in school history.
Chery’s career game could serve as salt in the wound for Oklahoma State and Smart, who sat out Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma and will miss Monday as he completes his three-game suspension for shoving a Texas Tech fan Feb. 8. The Cowboys are in the midst of their longest losing streak since 2008 after beginning conference play with a 4-2 mark and like Baylor, face an uphill battle to qualify for the NCAA Tournament without a strong finish. Oklahoma State could help its cause with a win on the road, where it is 1-5 in league play.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-9 SU, 8-13-0 ATS, 4-8 Big 12): Phil Forte III entered Saturday 41-of-41 from the foul line at home, but went 1-of-4 as the Cowboys missed 10 of their 22 free throws in the 77-74 loss. Four of the team’s last five setbacks have been by six points or fewer and fatigue may be playing a factor as the starters have played 341 of a possible 400 minutes over the last two games. “We had some tired guys out there... they're down. This is as down of a locker room that I've seen,” coach Travis Ford told reporters after the game.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (16-9 SU, 7-11-1 ATS, 4-8 Big 12): Isaiah Austin, the Bears athletic 7-1 center, took advantage of an undersized Kansas State front line with a career-high nine blocks and could enjoy similar success against the Cowboys, who do not give regular minutes to a player taller than 6-8 Kamari Murphy. Brady Heslip, who drained half of Baylor’s season-high 16 3-pointers in Wednesday’s rout of Texas Christian, went 1-of-8 beyond the arc Saturday. Heslip had knocked down 26 of his previous 49 3-point attempts since joining the starting lineup five games earlier.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baylor is 21-52 all-time against the Cowboys, but has won seven straight home games in this series.... Oklahoma State’s bench, which accounted for one point in its Feb.1 meeting against the Bears and again Saturday, has been outscored by the oppositions’ reserves 136-60 during the losing streak.... Heslip is 13 points shy of becoming the 27th player in school history (and ninth under coach Scott Drew) to score 1,000 career points.... Baylor is 4-15 versus the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Cowboys are 2-12 against the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 640 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 341 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 531 times, while BAYLOR won 441 times. In 1000 simulated games, 748 games went over the total, while 252 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 596 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 362 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, 704 games went over first half total, while 261 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 20-14 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 24-11 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 21-14 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Baylor.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Baylor.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKST is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--OKST is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Mon. games.
--Over is 6-2 in OKST last 8 overall.
--BAY is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--BAY is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Under is 4-1 in BAY last 5 home games.
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