Monday 2/13/12 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Marc Lawrence Comp

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Phoenix Suns

It appears as if the career of Suns? point guard Steve Nash is starting to set. The 16-year vet will likely miss the postseason for a second consecutive season as his Phoenix squad is ahead of only three teams in the Western Conference standings. However, one of those teams is tonight?s opponent, the Golden State Warriors ? a team the Suns beat with more regularity than a senior citizen on Milk of Magnesia. Phoenix has won 10 of the last 11 in the series, including an 11-point win earlier this year in the desert. That victory sets the stage for more of the same tonight as our Playbook.com database notes: sub .555 teams with same-season double-digit loss revenge against the Suns are just 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS. Toss in the fact that the Warriors, who are arriving off a triple-revenger with the Rockets, are just 2-6 and 1-7 ATS versus losing opposition this season. More of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Phoenix.
 
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Bryan Power
Bonus Play

Miami @ Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +6.5

Too many points for the visiting Heat to be laying in this matchup w/ the Bucks. There is actually a double-revenge angle in play here thanks to the Bucks pulling not one, but a pair of upsets over Miami already this year. On January 22nd, they went into South Beach and surprisingly dominated 91-82 despite shooting just 5 of 30 from three-point range. Then on the 1st of this month, they overcame a fast start from LeBron James to pull out a 105-97 win here at the Bradley Center. The first time the Heat lost the Bucks they found themselves in the second night of back to backs, just as they are here. Granted it was a very easy win at division rival Atlanta last night on ESPN (107-87 as 4.5-point favorites), but Miami was also coming off a huge win (in this case, Philly) the night before the first loss to Milwaukee. The Heat are 0 for their last 3 ATS on the road when playing w/out rest.
 
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Jim Feist Comp

Suns vs Warriors
Pick: Over

my Bonus Play for Monday, February 13, 2012 is in the NBA schedule between the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors. The Golden State Warriors continue to produce points. After Sunday's game, the Warriors have now scored over 100 points in five straight games and seven of their last eight. And, while they score points, they don't exactly play much defense, giving up 97 to Houston on Sunday and over 100 to their previous four opponents. In fact, the Warriors are tied for last in the NBA with Charlotte in points allowed per game (100.9). Tonight the Warriors host a Suns club that has allowed more points per game (96.1) then they have scored (93.4). However, I expect to see both those numbers going up on Monday as the Suns get the Warriors defense. I think this is a perfect matchup for a high scoring affair and my Bonus Play for Monday is to take the OVER between the Suns and Warriors.
 
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MATT RIVERS COMP

Monday's comp play winner comes in college basketball as I grab the Cyclones plus the points at Baylor.

The Bears are in need of a win, as Baylor comes into this one off of back-to-back ugly conference setbacks at the hands of Kansas and Missouri.

At 11-2 straight up at home, the Bears should be able to end their two game slide, but at just 2-4 against the spread in their lined home games this season, covering the contest is a different matter.

Iowa State comes into Waco with a 7-2-1 road spread mark this season, and with a 6-0-1 overall spread mark their last seven times on court, Fred Hoiberg's team has proved to be a tough out as we head into the last few weeks of the regular season.

With the Bears struggling to find a win, look for the Cyclones to keep things tight tonight versus Baylor.

Points work with Iowa State.
4♦ IOWA STATE
 
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Vegas Experts

Tip Of The Day

Kansas at Kansas State
Monday, February 13th, 9:00 PM ET

Must win game for K-State on Big Monday, hosting rival Kansas on ESPN. This is a brutal scheduling spot for the Jayhawks, who are playing for a fourth time in 10 days, and a third time on road. And they weren't just any two road games previously; they've played at both Missouri (lost) and Baylor (won). The home team has won and covered five straight in this rivalry. The Wildcats were on the wrong end of a lopsided free throw differential over the weekend against Texas.

Play on: Kansas State
 
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AtlantaHawks at L.A. Lakers Tuesday NBA Predictions<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

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By Doc’sSports<o:p></o:p>

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Well, the Lakers burned me in my Thursday TNT previewlast week as Los Angeles went into Boston and not only covered but won, 88-87,in overtime in what at the time was just the Lakers’ fourth road win in 13games this season.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Still, this is clearly a pretty flawed team – how else toexplain that the Lakers just worked out Gilbert Arenas? Of course, “Agent Zero”was cut by the Orlando Magic before the season, with Orlando eating the $60million-plus owed Arenas but scraping his salary cap number off its rosterthanks to the amnesty clause allowed in the new CBA. The Lakers could sign himfor the veteran’s minimum, about $1.4 million. <o:p></o:p>

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Atlanta, meanwhile, is one of those teams that is neverbad enough to be in a spot to grab a superstar at the top of the NBA Draft butalso never good enough to seriously contend for a title. Actually, a great readon the Atlanta Journal-Constitutionwebsite wonders how Atlanta is even decent. Take a look at the Hawks’ recentdraft misses: From 2004 through 2007, the Hawks had five lottery picks andpretty much screwed up four of them. They took Josh Childress instead of LuolDeng/Andre Iguodala in 2004; Marvin Williams instead of Chris Paul/DeronWilliams in 2005; Shelden Williams instead of Brandon Roy/Rudy Gay in 2006, andAcie Law IV instead of Thaddeus Young/Rodney Stuckey in 2007. The only one theygot right was Al Horford, also in 2007. And Horford is probably out for theyear.<o:p></o:p>

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Howthe Teams Enter<o:p></o:p>

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Atlanta (18-10) showed its schizophrenic side on Sunday,falling at home to Miami, 107-87. Why did the Hawks lose? They were outscored26-6 at the foul line. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, in the Hawks'nearly 5,000 regular-season NBA games, spanning 63 seasons in four differenthome cities or regions, it was only the second time they lost by 20 or morepoints without being outscored from the field. The first was a 114-94 loss tothe Celtics in 1963 in which Boston outscored the St. Louis Hawks, 40-18, fromthe line. Cool stat, I thought. Atlanta allowed 63 first-half points vs. Miami,its most points allowed in a half all season, and was down 32 at one point.This is the same Atlanta group that won in Miami on Jan. 2.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

The Lakers (16-12) concluded a six-game road trip with a94-92 win at Toronto on Sunday that shouldn’t have been that close consideringL.A. had an 18-pont lead. Kobe Bryant had 27 points, including the game-winningjumper with 4.2 seconds left. Since coming into the league in 1996-97, Bryanthas hit more game-winners in the final five seconds than any other player.Sunday marked the 16th time he's done it in the regular season, two more thanCarmelo Anthony. <o:p></o:p>

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BettingStory Lines<o:p></o:p>

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Maybe it’s good that the Hawks are out of Philips Arena.Over the past 10 days, the Hawks have lost four times at home, and none of themhave been close. The Hawks are 13-1 against teams that are under .500, 5-9against those above it, although they did beat both Indiana and Orlando beforeessentially throwing in the towel against the Heat. This one starts a five-gameroad trip with the Hawks likely to only be favored in one of them (at Phoenixon Wednesday). Atlanta has won four of its past five on the road.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

The Lakers’ depth is being exposed, so maybe Arenas can’thurt. L.A.’s second unit averaged a league-worst 20.3 points per game enteringSunday and was outscored 43-24 by the Raptors' substitutes. And Toronto isgod-awful. L.A. was 3-3 on the road trip, necessitated by the Grammys beingheld at Staples Center. Still, that supposedly improved defense has beentorched by point guards of late. The Knicks’ Jeremy Lin had a career-high 38 inNew York’s win over the Lakers on Friday and Toronto’s Jose Calderon had acareer-high 30 on Sunday. It just emphasizes how badly the Lakers need to add apoint guard before next month’s trade deadline (Ramon Sessions?).<o:p></o:p>

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This is the only meeting of the season between the Lakersand Hawks. L.A. won both meetings last season, each by 14 points. <o:p></o:p>

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Oddsand Key Trends<o:p></o:p>

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The Lakers opened as 5.5-point favorites with the totalat 179.5 on NBA odds. Atlanta is 14-13-1 ATS overall and 8-5-1 ATS on road. TheLakers are 12-16 ATS overall and 8-5 at home. ‘Over/under’ records: ATL11-16-1, LAL 11-16-1.<o:p></o:p>

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The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in past five as a dog. The Lakersare 2-8 ATS in past 10 vs. Eastern Conference. The under is 7-0 in the Hawks’past seven on Tuesday and 4-0 in the Lakers past four after a win. Hawks havecovered just once in past five at Lakers.<o:p></o:p>

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BettingPrediction<o:p></o:p>

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Hard to know which Atlanta team shows up, but I amguessing the one where its nine losses to clubs with winning records have comeby an average of 13.1 points, and the Hawks have fallen behind by at least 20in their last five defeats overall. <o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Without Horford, the Hawks were dominated down low byMiami, and the Heat’s frontcourt stinks. Just think what Andrew Bynum and PauGasol should be able to do, and the Lakers are No. 1 in the NBA in rebounding.Atlanta is so desperate for a big man – Jason Collins is also hurt -- that itrecently signed Erick Dampier off the scrap heap. He joins Zaza Pachulia as theonly healthy centers on the roster. The Hawks have been at a size disadvantagewhile using forwards Ivan Johnson and Josh Smith to back up Pachulia.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Atlanta usually gets blown out at the Lakers, losing itspast five there by an average of 17.0 points. That sounds about right. TakeL.A. and the under.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth ofmember’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’teven have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any wayyou please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Boardlist of expert sports handicappers. Clickhere for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.<o:p></o:p>
 

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