Monday 11/13/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

[Pesos]

MNF - Dolphins at Panthers

LAST WEEK

The Dolphins (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) play their third consecutive game in primetime, but are 0-2 so far in their first two night contests with losses to the Ravens and Raiders. Following a 40-0 blowout at the hands of Baltimore, Miami hung with Oakland before falling short in a 27-24 setback. The Dolphins managed a push as three-point underdogs, while quarterback Jay Cutler put together his finest game of the season by completing 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns.

Miami picked up the push after trailing 27-16 in the fourth quarter as Cutler connected with tight end Julius Thomas on a 15-yard touchdown pass, followed up by a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to three. The Dolphins dropped to 6-2 in games decided by three points or less since the start of the 2016 season, while losing for the first time in this situation at Hard Rock Stadium.

Carolina (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) picked up its second straight divisional victory by rallying from a 10-0 deficit to knock off Atlanta, 20-17. The Panthers depended on their ground game to chew up the Falcons’ defense by racking up 201 yards rushing, including touchdowns by Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. Newton threw for only 137 yards, but rushed for 86 to help improve Carolina to 2-1 inside the NFC South following a dreadful 1-5 record within the division last season.

The Panthers own the league’s best defense from a yardage-per-game standpoint by limiting the opposition to an average of 274.1 yards a contest. However, Carolina yielded 355 yards in last week’s win over Atlanta, while getting outgained in three of the past four games. Five times this season, the Panthers have allowed 17 points or less, while going 2-2 in four games in which they allowed 24 points or more.

TOPSY-TURVY TOTALS

From a totals perspective, these teams have gone in opposite directions of late. Miami is riding a 3-0 streak to the OVER in the last three contests following five consecutive UNDERS to begin the season. Carolina put together four straight OVERS from Week 3 through Week 6, but the Panthers have cashed the UNDER in the last three contests. Last season, Carolina compiled a 5-2-1 mark to the UNDER at Bank of America Stadium, but are 2-2 to the UNDER in four home games in 2017.

TERRIBLE TWOS

Since Adam Gase took over as head coach prior to the 2016 season, the Dolphins have lost consecutive games four times. In the first three instances, Miami bounced back with a victory, beating Cleveland in Week 3 and Pittsburgh in Week 6 last season, while knocking off Tennessee in Week 5 this season. We’ll see if Miami can avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2015.

SERIES HISTORY

The Dolphins and Panthers have met up only five times since Carolina entered the league in 1995. Miami captured the first four matchups, including a 24-17 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs in Charlotte back in 2009. Carolina won the most recent meeting in 2013 at Hard Rock Stadium, 20-16 as Newton hooked up with tight end Greg Olson on a one-yard touchdown pass in the final minute for the go-ahead score. Miami managed a cover as 4 ½-point underdogs, improving to 5-0 ATS lifetime against Carolina.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

The Panthers have won four of six Monday night games since 2012, while splitting a pair of games last season. Carolina is 1-2 ATS at home in this span with the only cover coming in an exciting finish over New England, 24-20 in 2013 as three-point favorites. The Dolphins have yet to play a Monday night game this season, while last losing when taking the field on a Monday in a 2015 home loss to the Giants. Since 2010, the Dolphins own a dreadful 0-7 ATS mark in Monday night action, including an 0-4 ATS mark as an underdog.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson provides his views on this matchup, starting with Carolina, “The Panthers are 21st in the league in total offense and 24th in scoring offense. On a per carry basis, the Panthers are the sixth-worst rushing team in the NFL gaining just 3.7 yards per carry as rookie Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been the high impact rookie many expected to see. Newton also hasn’t come close to his 2015 MVP numbers, 20th in the league in Total QBR and 27th in QB Rating.”

Shifting over to the Dolphins, the offense has been the main reason for the team’s struggles as Nelson outlines Miami’s offensive issues, “The Dolphins have averaged just 14.5 points per game for the worst scoring average in the NFL, even behind winless San Francisco and Cleveland. However, the Dolphins have scored 20, 31, and 24 in three of the last four weeks.”

This is a crucial game for both squads as the Dolphins still have a difficult schedule ahead, although Carolina’s slate isn’t as difficult, “The Dolphins still have to play the Patriots and Bills twice each in the final seven weeks while also drawing a road game at Kansas City as losing this week would greatly cripple their chances to finish above .500. For Carolina, the schedule out of the bye week is manageable, but they still have two difficult division road games remaining plus a home date with the Vikings as the chance to reach 10 wins might hinge on this game,” Nelson notes.

From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out a trend that goes against Miami following a successful game through the air, “The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS since Nov 09, 2014 after they threw for at least 300 yards last game.” The only time this situation occurred in 2017 came in the 40-0 blowout loss at Baltimore two weeks ago, while scoring a combined seven points in two road opportunities in this trend under Gase.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says there isn’t a strong opinion either way from bettors, “The spread has held steady since opening as there isn’t much sharp interest as of yet. Surprisingly, the public is pretty split up to this point. The pro action we have received on this game has come on the UNDER, which we’ve dropped a full point since opening.”

 

[Pesos]

Dolphins, Panthers meet in Carolina

The Dolphins will be hoping to get back over the .500 mark when they face the Panthers on Monday.

Miami is coming off of back-to-back losses, but this team is still 4-4 and right in the thick of things in the AFC. The Dolphins can still easily find a way to make it to the postseason, but they’re going to need to start winning some games soon. This one on Monday will not be easy, though. The Panthers have been excellent this season, which shows in their 6-3 record. Carolina has won-and-covered in two straight heading into this one, and the team played Tampa Bay and Atlanta in those contests. Both teams are very talented, so it’s not like the Panthers are beating nobody. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that the Dolphins are 3-11 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous games over the past three seasons. The Panthers also happen to be a ridiculous 8-1 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in the previous game over the past three seasons. And for those looking to take a total in this one, Miami is 6-0 UNDER in road games in non-conference games over the past three years.

The Dolphins are going to be kicking themselves over the way they lost to the Raiders last week, as they wasted an extremely good performance from QB Jay Cutler in that one. Cutler was 34-for-42 with 311 yards, three touchdowns and no picks in that game, but the Dolphins were unable to finish drives and also had a costly turnover in the red zone in that one. That type of mistake can change the momentum in a game and that is exactly what happened there. Miami will need to be more careful with the football in this one, as it could be even harder to stop Carolina than it was Oakland. It was RB Kenyan Drake that fumbled in that one and he can’t afford to do it again, as Damien Williams played well against the Raiders and Drake needs to do everything he can to make sure he stays on the field. As for the passing game, Cutler would be happy to have yet another performance like he did against Oakland. He’d be wise to target WRs DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry as much as possible here, as both are excellent in their own ways. Parker can go up and catch contested balls, and Landry roams free over the middle of the field. Defensively, Miami needs to focus on keeping Cam Newton in the pocket. The Dolphins must also keep an eye on Christian McCaffrey at all times.

In a 20-17 win over the Falcons last game, Cam Newton threw for just 137 yards with no touchdowns and no picks. He did, however, rush for 86 yards and a touchdown in that game. His ability to run is what makes him so special as a player and you can count on him making some plays with his legs in this one. Another guy that will be out there eating up yards on the ground is rookie RB Christian McCaffrey. Last week, McCaffrey had what was probably his best game as a pro thus far. He rushed for 66 yards and a touchdown and also caught five passes for 28 yards. The trade of Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo will free up more opportunities in the passing game for McCaffrey and the same can also be said for WR Devin Funchess. Funchess is going to be counted on to make plays on the outside for Carolina often in this one and he should be able to do it against an Oakland team that definitely blows coverages on occasion. As for Carolina’s defense, the team just needs to get some pressure on Jay Cutler in this game. Cutler is as good as anybody when he is throwing with a clean pocket, but he does not handle pressure well and makes a ton of mistakes when he is uncomfortable.

 

[Pesos]

CBB Trend Report

JACKSONVILLE STATE @ RICHMOND
Jacksonville State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville State's last 6 games on the road
Richmond is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Richmond is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL @ EVANSVILLE
Evansville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Evansville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

MINNESOTA @ PROVIDENCE
Minnesota is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Minnesota is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Providence is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Providence is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

EASTERN KENTUCKY @ MISSISSIPPI
Eastern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Kentucky is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Mississippi is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Mississippi is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

MOUNT ST. MARY'S @ NOTRE DAME
Notre Dame is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame's last 5 games at home

MONTANA @ PITTSBURGH
Montana is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Montana is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home

AUSTIN PEAY @ VIRGINIA
Austin Peay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Austin Peay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Virginia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

MORGAN STATE @ SOUTH FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Florida's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of South Florida's last 15 games

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN
Central Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Michigan
Central Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Michigan
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Michigan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

GARDNER-WEBB @ FLORIDA
Florida is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games at home
Florida is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games

OLD DOMINION @ JAMES MADISON
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Old Dominion's last 9 games on the road
Old Dominion is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against James Madison
James Madison is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
James Madison is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games

LIU-BROOKLYN @ FORDHAM
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fordham's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Fordham's last 8 games

LA SALLE @ PENNSYLVANIA
La Salle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pennsylvania
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of La Salle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pennsylvania
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pennsylvania's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pennsylvania's last 5 games at home

NORTH FLORIDA @ VCU
VCU is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home
VCU is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games

FLORIDA GULF COAST @ SIENA
Siena is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Siena is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

WESTERN CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Carolina's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Western Carolina's last 10 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games

SOUTH DAKOTA @ BOWLING GREEN
The total has gone OVER in 7 of South Dakota's last 8 games on the road
South Dakota is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 7 games at home

BINGHAMTON @ CORNELL
Cornell is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Binghamton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cornell's last 6 games

ARCADIA @ DREXEL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Drexel's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Drexel's last 9 games

FROSTBURG STATE @ TOWSON
Towson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Towson is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

MICHIGAN DEARBORN @ DETROIT
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

NEW ORLEANS @ OAKLAND
Oakland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Oakland is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

BROWN @ QUINNIPIAC
Brown is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Quinnipiac
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brown's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Quinnipiac's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Quinnipiac's last 11 games at home

SOUTHERN @ MARSHALL
Marshall is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

ANDERSON-IN @ IUPUI
IUPUI is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of IUPUI's last 6 games at home

VANDERBILT @ BELMONT
Vanderbilt is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Belmont
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Vanderbilt's last 9 games on the road
Belmont is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Belmont is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE @ LOUISIANA TECH
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southeast Missouri State's last 7 games on the road
Southeast Missouri State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Louisiana Tech is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Louisiana Tech is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

CAL STATE-BAKERSFIELD @ GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Cal State-Bakersfield is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Cal State-Bakersfield is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
Georgia Southern is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia Southern's last 7 games

ORAL ROBERTS @ TULSA
Tulsa is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Oral Roberts
Tulsa is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home

WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE @ IOWA STATE
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisconsin-Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Iowa State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

CHARLOTTE @ OKLAHOMA STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games on the road
Charlotte is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games

SAINT PETER'S @ NORTHWESTERN
Saint Peter's is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Saint Peter's is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Northwestern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Northwestern is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI @ BAYLOR
Baylor is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Baylor is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

NORTH TEXAS @ NEBRASKA
North Texas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
North Texas is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nebraska's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nebraska's last 6 games

MIDDLE TENNESSEE @ MURRAY STATE
Middle Tennessee is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Middle Tennessee is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Murray State is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
Murray State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Middle Tennessee

CHATTANOOGA @ UAB
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chattanooga's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chattanooga's last 9 games
UAB is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chattanooga
UAB is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chattanooga

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA @ TULANE
Tulane is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games at home
Tulane is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games

ALCORN STATE @ NORTHERN IOWA
Northern Iowa is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Northern Iowa's last 13 games

TRINITY CHRISTIAN @ VALPARAISO
Valparaiso is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Valparaiso is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games

ABILENE CHRISTIAN @ ARKANSAS STATE
Arkansas State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games

REINHARDT @ TENNESSEE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee State's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee State's last 7 games at home

ALABAMA A&M @ SAMFORD
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Samford's last 6 games
Samford is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

DELAWARE STATE @ DEPAUL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of DePaul's last 6 games
DePaul is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

WESTERN MICHIGAN @ SOUTH CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Western Michigan's last 5 games on the road
Western Michigan is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
South Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
South Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

BETHUNE-COOKMAN @ UTRGV
UTRGV is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
UTRGV is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

SAINT JOSEPH'S @ UIC
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saint Joseph's's last 5 games
Saint Joseph's is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
UIC is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

MOBILE @ SOUTH ALABAMA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Alabama's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Alabama's last 8 games

RIDER @ XAVIER
Rider is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Rider is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Xavier is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Xavier is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

ROCKHURST @ SAINT LOUIS
Saint Louis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Saint Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

EMBRY-RIDDLE @ NORTHERN ARIZONA
Northern Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northern Arizona's last 6 games at home

TENNESSEE TECH @ TCU
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee Tech's last 7 games on the road
Tennessee Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

WAGNER @ MISSOURI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Missouri's last 5 games at home
Missouri is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON @ WICHITA STATE
College of Charleston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of College of Charleston's last 9 games
Wichita State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Wichita State is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE @ UTAH
Utah is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

MONTANA STATE @ UTAH STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montana State's last 7 games on the road
Montana State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Utah State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Utah State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

UC DAVIS @ NORTHERN COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of UC Davis's last 8 games
UC Davis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Northern Colorado is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Colorado's last 6 games at home

ROBERT MORRIS @ GRAND CANYON
Grand Canyon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Grand Canyon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

PRAIRIE VIEW A&M @ OREGON
Oregon is 23-1 SU in its last 24 games at home
Oregon is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

NORTH DAKOTA @ ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
North Dakota is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Dakota's last 6 games

CAL STATE-NORTHRIDGE @ FRESNO STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cal State-Northridge's last 6 games on the road
Cal State-Northridge is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cal State-Northridge

ST. FRANCIS-PENNSYLVANIA @ SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games

GEORGE FOX @ IDAHO
Idaho is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Idaho is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

NEW MEXICO STATE @ SAINT MARY'S-CALIFORNIA
New Mexico State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
New Mexico State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Saint Mary's-California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Saint Mary's-California is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games

WYOMING @ OREGON STATE
Wyoming is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wyoming's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon State's last 5 games at home

NORTH DAKOTA STATE @ USC
The total has gone OVER in 11 of North Dakota State's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Dakota State's last 6 games on the road
USC is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
USC is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

RHODE ISLAND @ NEVADA
Rhode Island is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Rhode Island is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Nevada is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

TROY @ HAWAII
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games
Troy is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Hawaii's last 12 games at home
Hawaii is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

 

[Pesos]

StatFox Super Situations

W CAROLINA at CINCINNATI
Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (CINCINNATI) good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 95 points or more 46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )

ST JOSEPHS at IL-CHICAGO
Play On - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (IL-CHICAGO) after allowing 55 points or less, with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season 79-42 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 32.9 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )

AUSTIN PEAY at VIRGINIA
Play Against - Road underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (AUSTIN PEAY) poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 3 or more points/game, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season 68-32 since 1997. ( 68.0% | 32.8 units ) 3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

 

[Pesos]

NHL Knowledge

Dallas Stars won their last six games with Carolina; they won four of last five visits to Raleigh. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Dallas won four of last six games overall; they split their last six road games. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Carolina lost five of last seven games, four of last five at home. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Blues won seven of last ten games with Calgary; they won three of last four games in the Saddledome. Over is 4-1-2 in last seven series games. St Louis won seven of last nine games; they won 2-1/3-1 in last two road games. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Calgary won four of its last five games, all at home, last three of which went over the total.


DALLAS (9-7-0-0, 18 pts.) at CAROLINA (6-5-0-4, 16 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-17 ATS (-17.5 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 51-35 ATS (+86.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
DALLAS is 194-165 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
CAROLINA is 24-41 ATS (+67.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 11-21 ATS (+33.2 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 5-0 (+5.5 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-0-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

ST LOUIS (13-4-0-1, 27 pts.) at CALGARY (9-7-0-0, 18 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 29-19 ATS (+52.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 169-161 ATS (+347.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 113-92 ATS (+206.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 66-48 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 3-13 ATS (-13.1 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-4 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 4-3-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.5 Units)


DALLAS @ CAROLINA
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

ST. LOUIS @ CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

 

[Pesos]

NHL Picks and Betting Tips

MORNING LINE REPORT

It was a quiet Sunday on the ice as oddsmakers set some pretty tight lines and there was very little movement across the four games yesterday. It ended up being a good day to relax and get some rest and a binge-watching session of Stranger Things 2 highlighted my day. It’s not only important for NHL players to get some rest while they can but also for us handicappers as it’s a very long season and it can become very easy to overextend yourself and burn out a little. It’s okay to take a day off without any action and refuel the mind. In fact, it’s highly recommended to take some time for yourself once in a while and you’ll be amazed at how much better you feel.

There will be a special event in Toronto tonight as the Hockey Hall of Fame will hold a public ceremony for their seven inductees for the class of 2017. Teemu Selanne, Paul Kariya, Dave Andreychuk and Mark Recchi will highlight the former players being inducted on the men’s side and Danielle Goyette will enter on the women’s side. Goyette is one of Canada’s best hockey players ever as she won nine gold medals and three silvers between the Olympics and World Championships for Canada.

We have another light schedule tonight with just two games but there’s some value on the road Stars so we’ll give them a shot at turning around their road woes.

DALLAS STARS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES

Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Carolina – Scott Darling (expected)

Injury Report
Dallas – Methot (out)
Carolina – Stempniak (out)

The Dallas Stars dominated from start to finish in a 5-0 win over the Islanders on Friday. Ken Hitchcock said a few weeks ago the team was better than their record suggests and since then the Stars have gone 4-2-0 and are starting to find some consistency as they head out for a three game in four nights road trip.

That consistency has been coming at home though as the Stars currently sit second in the NHL at home with a 1.75 goals-against average and third with a .934 save percentage. The road hasn’t been as kind as the Stars have struggled to a 3-5-0 start with a 25th ranked 3.63 GAA and .883 save percentage.

Hitchcock’s new line combos on Saturday will remain into tonight’s game. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin were split up to center their own line to give the team a better 1-2 punch down the middle. The Stars offense received contributions from the top three lines as they all found the scoresheet.

Ben Bishop will get the start with Kari Lehtonen tomorrow in Florida for the back-to-back. Tyler Pitlick will return to the lineup after missing the last two games but defenseman Marc Methot did not travel with the team and will miss his second consecutive game with a lower-body injury.

This is an important road trip for the Stars as they look to meet the first of their season goals. The Stars wanted to be in a playoff position at the 20-game mark and after 16 games currently sit tied with Calgary for one of the two wild card spots. Seven teams are separated by just two points so the Stars will look to create some separation.

The Carolina Hurricanes seemed to be doing everything right on Saturday night as they carried a two goal lead into the third period but couldn’t hold off Chicago who fought back to down the Canes 4-3 in overtime.

Bill Peters has promised some changes for the lifeless powerplay but hasn’t said exactly what. The Canes are just 1-for-26 over the past ten games with the man advantage after going 0-for-3 on Saturday and failing to put the game out of reach.

Lee Stempniak was recalled from his conditioning stint in the AHL but he only played two shifts there before reinjuring himself so won’t be available tonight.

This line opened above my range and an overnight move on Carolina has it too high at the moment so we’ll jump on Dallas as our lone play for today.

ST. LOUIS BLUES @ CALGARY FLAMES

Projected Goaltenders
St. Louis – Jake Allen (expected)
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)

Injury Report
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)
Calgary – Hamonic (likely)

The St. Louis Blues put up a stinker of a game on Saturday night with a flat 5-2 loss to the Islanders and now embark on a three game Western Canada road swing. Mike Yeo feels maybe the team is getting a bit stagnant so he tinkered with his lines in Sunday’s practice looking for a spark. The Blues high-flying line of Schenn-Schwartz-Tarasenko was split up with Tarasenko joining Steen and Stastny. Beau Bennett, a healthy scratch the last four games, was inserted in Tarasenko’s spot. Sobotka was dropped to the third line with Sundqvist falling to the fourth line. Yeo wasn’t sure if he’d stick with these lines for tonight but the team definitely needs a jolt. The Blues have been a little slow out of the gate recently only scoring first in one of their last five games, a new trend that Yeo doesn’t want to become commonplace.

There were a couple of fresh faces at practice yesterday as Jay Bouwmeester skated with the team for the first time since a broken ankle early in training camp. Recovery has been slow for the defenseman but this is a positive step. Bouwmeester will travel with the team this week but will not play. Patrik Berglund will also travel with the team on this trip and although he won’t play in any of the three games either, he seems well ahead of his mid-December timeline for a return. Berglund will be re-assessed when they return home and could play before the end of the month.

The Calgary Flames moved to 4-2-0 on their current seven game homestand after Thursday’s 6-3 victory over Detroit. The Flames wrap up the homestand tonight in a game Glen Gulutzan is treating like a road game. The final game of a long homestand can sometimes be a tough spot for a team as they prepare to head out onto the road and Gulutzan is well aware. Gulutzan also thinks the team is giving up too many scoring chances and wants to tighten things up defensively. The Flames have allowed 12 goals over the last three games to the Devils, Canucks and Red Wings after only allowing four goals over the previous three games against the high powered Stars, Capitals and Penguins.

Johnny Gaudreau is quietly having an MVP type season as he sits tied for fourth in NHL scoring with 22 points in 16 games. The entire Flames top line has been igniting the offense as Sean Monahan has eight points over the first six games of this homestand and Micheal Ferland has scored in three straight games and has six points in six games.

This line opened with Calgary as a favorite which was a mistake in my opinion. The market has already corrected this overnight which is unfortunate as it’s removed all the value for us. I debated about making this a play regardless as I really liked the Blues earlier this morning but have decided to abide by the numbers and let it go for now. We’ll see where the market takes the line this morning and maybe jump in a little later if it swings back on Calgary some

 

[Pesos]

NHL Situational Betting
St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames – The Flames and Blues meet in one of just two games on Monday night. St. Louis has a strange road trip through Western Canada this week. Normally, we see teams play Calgary and Edmonton in a back-to-back while in Alberta, but the Blues play Monday in Calgary and then don’t play again until Thursday in Edmonton. Calgary has three days off before this one. St. Louis has a travel day to get situated. This looks like a pretty straightforward handicap, but I’d look to fade St. Louis on Thursday after a couple days in Oiler country.

Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes – It is rare for the road team to be in a better spot in Raleigh than the home team, but that is the case here. The Stars have two days off prior to this game, while this is the third game in four nights for the Hurricanes. Dallas is playing in Sunrise the next night against Florida, but this is a pretty good chance to grab two points against a struggling team to start off a road trip and a stretch with three games in four nights. More often than not, Carolina is the preferred side at home, but it is the road team here that has a better spot.

 

[Pesos]

NCAAB Knowledge

Richard Pitino’s Gophers face Providence, the team his dad led to Final Four 31 years ago. Minnesota won its opener by 15 over SC-Upstate; Gophers start 2 juniors/2 seniors, are picked to finish near top of Big 14. Providence beat a stiff by 29 in its opener; they start two sophs, two seniors- their PG is a senior. Friars are picked 4th in Big East. Big 14 teams are 2-3 vs spread this week, 0-0 as underdogs; Big East home favorites are 2-3 vs spread. Last two years, Big East teams are 19-18 vs spread when facing a Big 14 opponent.

Penn was 9-39 from arc on 80-72 loss at Fairfield in its opener; Quakers beat LaSalle the last two years, by 16-3 points. Penn started two sophs, two juniors in their opener. LaSalle starts three seniors; they hammered St Peter’s 61-40 in their opener. Explorers are picked to finish in middle of A-14 race. Ivy League teams are 3-5 vs spread this year, 0-2 as favorites; A-14 teams are 3-6 vs spread, 2-0 as underdogs. Last two years, A-14 teams are 12-6 vs spread when playing an Ivy League opponent.

South Carolina won by 21 at Wofford in its opener; Gamecocks have only two seniors in their rotation after making Final 4 LY. SC made 11-24 on arc at Wofford. Western Michigan beat a stiff team by 31 in its opener; Broncos have four starters back from a 16-16 team, including a senior PG. Western is expected to compete for MAC title. SEC home favorites are 3-1 vs spread as home favorites; MAC underdogs are 4-0 vs spread. Last two years, SEC teams are 4-1 vs spread when facing a MAC squad.

James Madison lost 62-55 at Old Dominion LY, as old conference rivals renewed acquaintances. ODU beat Towson 57-54 in its opener, despite shooting 3-16 on arc, 6-13 on foul line. Monarchs only played seven guys; they start three juniors, two seniors. JMU beat a stiff team by 30 in its opener; Dukes lost three starters from LY’s disappointing 10-23 team. C-USA teams are 3-2 vs spread, 1-1 as a favorite; CAA underdogs are 2-1 vs spread. Last two years, CAA teams are 10-10 vs spread when playing a C-USA opponent.

Oklahoma State beat Pepperdine by 31 in its opener; they have guy(s) sitting out because of NCAA stuff. OSU was picked last in Big X- they’ve got new coach (3rd in three years), lost three starters from LY. Charlotte is coached by Oklahoma native Mark Price; 49ers beat a stiff by 40 Friday- they’ve got four starters back from LY, are picked in middle of C-USA. Big X home favorites are 3-2 vs spread as favorites; C-USA teams are 3-2 vs spread, 2-1 as an underdog. Last two years, Big X teams are 5-3 vs spread when playing C-USA opponents.

Ill-Chicago beat NC Central by 10 in their opener; Flames started four sophomores in that game. UIC is picked to finish 3rd in Horizon- they’ve got four starters back from LY’s 17-19 team. St Joe’s lost its opener 98-87 at Toledo; Hawks made 11-26 on arc, but Toledo was 14-25. St Joe’s starts two seniors- they’re picked to finish 5th in A-14. Horizon teams are 3-2 vs spread, 2-1 as home favorites; A-14 teams are 3-6 vs spread, 2-0 as road underdogs. Last two years, A-14 teams are 4-4 vs spread when playing a Horizon team.

Oregon State was 26-35 on foul line in 99-82 win over Southern Utah in their opener; Beavers don’t have nay seniors in their rotation- they start a freshman, two sophs, are picked 6th in Pac-12, a big jump from LY. Wyoming has three starters back from a 23-15 team that won the CBI; Cowboys beat Chattanooga 74-65 in their opener, making 10-21 on arc. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; Mountain West teams are 2-5 vs spread, 0-2 as an underdog. Last two years, Mountain West teams are 20-14 vs spread when playing team from the Pac-12.

Nevada beat Idaho 88-64 in its opener; Wolf Pack is deeper this year- they started three juniors, two seniors in opener. Wolf Pack are picked to win the Mountain West. has three starters back from a 25-10 team that beat Creighton in NCAA’s LY. Rams are picked to win the A-14 this winter. A-14 teams are 3-6 vs spread, 2-0 as road underdogs; Mountain West teams are 2-5 vs spread, 2-3 as a home favorite. Last two years, A-14 won the only game it played against a MW team- Dayton beat New Mexico by 7.

Richmond lost its opener 76-63 to Delaware- they were down 49-20 at halftime- not good. Spiders start two frosh, two sophs, which helps explains the opener. Richmond is picked 9th in A-14. Jacksonville State pounded a stiff in its opener; has three starters back from 20-15 team that won OVC tourney, then lost to Louisville by 15 in NCAA’s. Gamecocks are picked 3rd in OVC. A-14 home favorites are 1-5 vs spread this week; OVC road underdogs are 3-6. Last two years, OVC teams are 8-4-1 vs spread when playing an A-14 opponent.

Pitt lost its opener 71-62 at Navy- Panthers were an underdog in that game, are picked to finish last in ACC this winter- they started two frosh, two seniors at Navy. Montana beat a stiff by 12 in its opener; Griz are picked 4th in Big Sky- they’ve got three starters back from a 16-16 team, Montana’s first team in nine years that didn’t have a winning record. ACC home favorites are 7-3 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 4-4 vs spread. Last two years, ACC teams are 3-0 vs spread against Big Sky opponents.

Belmont lost 80-66 at Vanderbilt LY; they were 9-41 on arc. Vandy beat Austin Peay by 19 in its opener- they start two juniors, two seniors, are picked 11th in SEC. Belmont was up 8 at the half at Washington, lost 86-82; Bruins shot just 10-31 on arc- they start three juniors, two seniors. Belmont is picked to win the OVC. Huskies outscored Belmont 26-8 on foul line. SEC teams are 6-1 vs spread, 4-1 if favored; OVC teams are 3-7 vs spread, but all of those were on road. Last two years, SEC teams are 12-11 vs spread against OVC opponents.

Middle Tennessee won 56 games the last two years; they’ve got three starters back from LY’s 31-5 team that beat Minnesota in NCAA’s. MTSU is picked to win C-USA this winter- they beat Murray State 87-81 at home LY. Teams split last four series games. Murray State had its first losing season in 29 years LY, were 1-4 in OT games; they’ve got three starters back, are picked #3 in OVC. C-USA teams are 3-2 vs spread, 1-1 if favored; OVC teams are 3-7 vs spread, but all of those were on road. Last two years, OVC teams are 14-9-1 vs spread when playing C-USA foes.

Utah State never led and lost its opener 65-59 at Weber State Friday; Aggies started two sophs, three juniors- they’re picked to finish 8th in Mountain West. Montana State won its opener by 9 in OT over Omaha; Bobcats start two juniors, two seniors, held Omaha to 2-20 on arc, were also +5 in turnovers. Montana State is picked to finish 2nd in Big Sky. Mountain West home favorites are 2-3 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 4-4 vs spread. Last two years, Big Sky teams are 18-14 vs spread when facing MW opponents.

 

[Pesos]

NHL Projected Starting Goalies

1 Dallas Stars +110 Over 6 +115 Bishop: 7-4-0, 2.48, 0.915 (8-1-1, 1.89, .942)
2 Carolina Hurricanes -130 Under 6 -135 *Darling: 4-3-4, 2.49, 0.906 (2-2-0, 2.93, .896)

3 St. Louis Blues -110 Over 5½ +100 *Allen: 9-4-1, 2.59, 0.914 (4-0-1, 2.86, .893)
4 Calgary Flames -110 Under 5½ -120 Smith: 9-6-0, 2.55, 0.924 (4-14-0, 3.52, .885)

 

[Pesos]

Dr Bob

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers

Lean – Miami (+9) over CAROLINA

This matchup features two of the worst offenses in the league with neither team averaging above 5 yppl. Both teams have struggled to run the football with Carolina ranking 26th and Miami 29th but they’ve shown signs of improvement recently. The Panthers abandoned Jonathan Stewart after two fumbles last game and the rest of the team ran for 6.7 ypr. The Dolphins averaged 4.8 ypr in their first game since trading Jay Ajayi and second-year back Kenyan Drake has performed well in his short career (5.3 ypr on 52 runs) when he’s had the chance.

On the other side of the ball, I expect to see both teams improve their redzone defense. The Panthers defense is allowing opponent touchdowns on 65% of redzone opportunities (29th) despite only surrendering 4.9 yppl (7th) and I expect Carolina’s redzone defense to be more in line with their overall defensive level of play moving forward, which will improved their points per game allowed numbers. Miami’s defense surrenders a touchdown on 72% of opponent redzone trips, no defense has allowed a rate that high over the course of a full season since 2010 and I expect the Dolphins redzone defense to aso improve as the season progresses. Also, the Dolphins good a boost with the addition of excellent safety TJ McDonald, whose 8 game suspension is over.

The line on this game is a bit high based on our metrics and Miami applies to a 132-60-2 ATS contrary indicator that is based on how much they’ve underperformed so far this season. Miami should be better on both sides of the ball going forward and I’ll lean with the Dolphins plus the points.

 

[Pesos]

Dave Cokin ; CBB

La Salle +2.5

 

[Pesos]

Scott Spreitzer ; CBB

Wyoming +6.5

 

[Pesos]

Mike Lundin ; NBA

utah +3.5

 

[Pesos]

Ben Burns ; NBA

LAL +2

 

[Pesos]

Jimmy Boyd ; NBA

Memphis +4

 

[Pesos]

Teddy Davis ; NBA

Cleveland U219

 

[Pesos]

Frank Jordan ; NBA

LAL O227.5

 

[Pesos]

Power Sports ; CBB

Xavier -23

 

[Pesos]

Jim Feist ; NBA

Atlanta Under

 

[Pesos]

Bruce Marshall ; CBB

Nevada Over