NHL Picks and Betting Tips
MORNING LINE REPORT
Sometimes you just end up making a really bad bet. Last night felt like that to me even before the Canucks and Red Wings took the ice. I was uneasy about this one most of the day and was almost hoping Detroit would announce Petr Mrazek as the starter so I could buy out. That didn’t happen though and even though we beat the closing line again I begrudgingly watched the Wings get constantly outworked through the first 40 minutes at which point I turned the game off and started looking at today’s games. On what planet do the Red Wings think they are a good enough team where they can just show up and expect to get two points against a lesser rated team? Apparently this planet because Detroit’s effort was embarrassing on many levels.
Okay, now that we’ve got that out of our system let’s move on to tonight’s card and find another winner.
SAN JOSE SHARKS @ NEW YORK RANGERS
Projected Goaltenders
San Jose – Martin Jones (probable)
New York – Henrik Lundqvist/Ondrej Pavelec (unknown)
Injury Report
San Jose – Martin (out)
New York – no significant injuries
The San Jose Sharks continue their five game road trip on the East Coast after dropping a 5-3 decision to the Islanders on Saturday night. The Sharks offense has found their stride since DeBoer moved Tomas Hertl from third-line center to second-line wing beside Logan Couture after a 0-2 start. San Jose has scored 15 goals in five games since and Couture has been the big beneficiary. After a four assist night earlier in the week, Couture notched a hat trick in the losing effort Saturday.
One guy who hasn’t been able to get going offensively is Brent Burns but it’s not for his lack of trying. Burns has been excellent at driving possession (as has the entire Sharks team) and has the third most shots on goal among defensemen with 31 but has still yet to find the back of the net.
The New York Rangers finally got into the win column in game four of their six game homestand with Saturday’s 4-2 win over Nashville. The Rangers played an outstanding first period which was by far their best 20 minutes of the season, jumping out to a 2-0 lead. After that, however, it was more of the same defensive miscues that have plagued New York over the season’s first two weeks and it was thanks to sensational goaltending by Henrik Lundqvist which kept them in the game. New York withstood a late flurry from the Preds and when Jimmy Vesey fired the puck the length of the ice into the open net to seal the win, Lundqvist fell back against the net and raised his head to the heavens in a huge sigh of relief.
The Rangers have actually shown a lot of improvement over the last few games since Vigneault made a switch to play just 11 forwards with seven defensemen. Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller have seen increased ice-time as a result by rotating double shifts as the fourth line center between Buchnevich and Grabner. Having their best players on the ice more had resulted in New York winning the possession battle in three straight games prior to Nashville and then again in the first period Saturday which makes their lackluster play over the final 40 minutes a bit perplexing.
I was hoping to be able to confirm the starter here but had no luck. The Rangers don’t play another back-to-back until December so I would expect Vigneault to want to get Pavelec into one of these final two home games before hitting the road. Thursday against Arizona would seem like the better spot but we’ll have to wait and see.
San Jose has taken some overnight money to drive this line down to -109 but I disagree with the early move. I’m still not high on this Sharks team at all and even if Pavelec gets the start there will still be enough edge here on New York. We’ll play the value on the Rangers.
LOS ANGELES KINGS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (likely)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (likely)
Injury Report
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out)
Toronto – no significant injuries
The Los Angeles Kings remain the lone undefeated team in regulation after Saturday’s 6-4 victory at Columbus. The Kings have become a much more aggressive offensive team under new head coach John Stevens and have scored three or more goals in six straight games now. The top line of Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown have looked unstoppable and have combined to score 11 of the team’s 27 goals. Brown continues to look ten years younger, playing with extra jump in his step and that could be attributed to the hustle of linemate and rookie, Alex Iafallo, who has looked very good in his first season and brought some speed to the lineup.
Outside of that top line, however, the rest of the forwards have scored just nine goals at 5-on-5 in seven games which looks very similar to last season. That could be because the lineup is essentially the same with the only notable forward addition being Mike Cammalleri who has been a productive asset in the early going with two goals and three assists in five games.
So has Stevens’ new aggressive system really turned essentially the same roster from a grinding stick-in-the-mud offense into one of the NHL’s elite groups? Probably not although it’s still too early to know for sure. Once the shine wears off on the top line it will be interesting to see where the secondary offense comes from, especially now with Jeff Carter out for a couple of months.
LA begins a back-to-back tonight and since they don’t reveal their starting goaltenders to the media we’ll have to wait to see who’s announced. Knowing the Kings well though, they almost always play the backup in the second game so it’s more than likely we’ll see Quick in net tonight. Quick is 5-0-1 and has the league’s second best save percentage at .938, behind only Corey Crawford.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are licking their wounds a bit after a disappointing 6-3 setback to the rival Senators on Saturday night. The Leafs looked sloppy in the defensive zone yet again giving up a season-high 17 scoring chances.
Feeling the need to quickly improve the defense, the Leafs announced on Monday the signing of… Roman Polak? Yes, the Leafs have brought back Polak who was arguably one of the worst defenders in the entire NHL last season. It’s a confusing move as the Leafs already have seven defensemen on the roster and to add Polak means likely either Calle Rosen or Andreas Borgman will be sent down. Maybe the Leafs just felt like they needed a more physical presence on the backend or maybe they feel they need more help on the penalty kill where Polak has been known to eat minutes. Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev have played the bulk of the penalty killing minutes thus far so if they intend to just use Polak in that role, then okay. If they intend to give him regular rotation minutes then don’t expect the Leafs defensive issues to get any better.
Los Angeles beat the Leafs last November here in Toronto by the tune of 7-0 and Mike Babcock and his players vividly remember their most lopsided loss of the year where they were outshot 43-19. I initially really liked the Leafs in this spot and after siding with the Kings for a bit I’ve gone back to liking the Leafs here. Unfortunately this line looks a bit inflated and the value is on Los Angeles or nothing. We’ll see if there’s any line movement here this morning which could bring it into range for a play but I’ll likely just enjoy this one tonight and wait for better spots tomorrow.
