Monday's Best Bet
October 16, 2017
ALCS Game 3 Betting Preview (FOX, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
The Houston Astros did what they were “supposed” to do in the first two games of this series as they took care of business at home and head to New York with a 2-0 series lead. Yet, the 2-0 series lead doesn't speak to just how close those first two games were and the phenomenal efforts from the Astros starting pitchers in those two games.
Houston won both games by 2-1 scores, as Dallas Keuchel (Game 1) and Justin Verlander (Game 2) were downright dominant in their starts. Those two guys combined to pitch 16 of the 18 innings so far in this series – Verlander had a complete game – and tonight the Astros would love to get a similar performance from starter Charlie Morton.
BetOnline.ag Odds: Houston (+123), New York (-133); Total set at 8.5
Morton couldn't get out of the 5th inning when he started Game 4 against Boston last round, but the Astros bullpen was able to piece things together after that as they clinched the series with a 5-4 win. There is no question that after sending out Keuchel and Verlander to open this ALCS, sending out Morton is a step down in quality for the Astros and the offense is likely going to have to do a bit more work then they did in Games 1 and 2. Houston was 17-9 SU when Morton got the nod this year so it's not like they haven't had much success with him on the mound, but most of his rougher starts did come away from home this year, including his lone start vs. New York.
Morton has only seen this Yankees lineup once this year and it came in New York back in mid-May. It was a hit-or-miss type day for Morton as he struck out 10, walked 4, gave up four runs on four hits in 5.2 innings of work en route to a 10-7 Houston win. That game was actually the back end of a double-header that day, so the Astros were happy to get the split (they lost Game 1), but tonight they know the stakes are much higher and another start where Morton struggles with command will definitely have him on a short leash.
Given the desperate spot the Yankees are in down 0-2 in the series, bettors should expect the Yankees to force Morton into the strike zone early and then be ultra-aggressive when he does find the plate. Morton simply doesn't have the type of swing-and-miss stuff Verlander or Keuchel do, so this matchup against Morton could be the break New York needs to get back into this ALCS.
New York is countering with C.C Sabathia tonight and he's had a great resurgence in 2017. The Yankees were 20-9 SU when Sabathia got the start this year, and his biggest performance had to have come in Game 5 of the ALDS against Cleveland. C.C may have only went 4.1 innings that day, but the 9 K's he had helped he and the Yankees wiggle out of some early trouble in spots where if Cleveland had got that big hit when the opportunity was there, we wouldn't even be talking about the Yankees still playing baseball right now.
But the fact remains that Joe Girardi didn't trust Sabathia's stuff beyond the 5th inning – which would be the third time through the order – and for as good as he's been in 2017, he's still prone to a blowup or two if he's not painting the corners with his pitches. Sabathia is a long ways away from the guy who used to blow people away with power when he first entered MLB, and there might not be a better lineup than Houston's to take advantage of Sabathia that doesn't have his best stuff.
It's nearly impossible to know how well either of these starters will be tonight, but situationally, tonight's Game 3 lends itself to bettors seeing a bit more offense. Both starters could easily have tough outings early and after a pair of 2-1 games, the two offenses both teams have will break out sooner than later.
Five of the seven regular season meetings between these two cashed 'over' tickets, and in three of those games both sides scored 6+ runs. Houston is on an 11-5 O/U run on the road, including a 4-0 O/U stretch on the road against southpaws. That later number extends to 6-0 O/U against lefties overall, as they finished the regular season with the 4th best batting average against lefties in 2017.
The Yankees also have to know that a breakout performance by this Houston lineup is likely on it's way, and given New York is down 0-2 in the series, they've got to be prepared to slug it out too. New York averaged 5.56 runs per home game this year, and given Houston put up 6.13 per road game, these next three games in New York should see the offenses come to life.
I'm backing that situation will happen in tonight's Game 3, and although it's a popular play according to the betting percentage numbers at VegasInsider.com, the 'over' 8.5 looks to be the best way to attack this game from a betting perspective.
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-115)
October 16, 2017
ALCS Game 3 Betting Preview (FOX, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
The Houston Astros did what they were “supposed” to do in the first two games of this series as they took care of business at home and head to New York with a 2-0 series lead. Yet, the 2-0 series lead doesn't speak to just how close those first two games were and the phenomenal efforts from the Astros starting pitchers in those two games.
Houston won both games by 2-1 scores, as Dallas Keuchel (Game 1) and Justin Verlander (Game 2) were downright dominant in their starts. Those two guys combined to pitch 16 of the 18 innings so far in this series – Verlander had a complete game – and tonight the Astros would love to get a similar performance from starter Charlie Morton.
BetOnline.ag Odds: Houston (+123), New York (-133); Total set at 8.5
Morton couldn't get out of the 5th inning when he started Game 4 against Boston last round, but the Astros bullpen was able to piece things together after that as they clinched the series with a 5-4 win. There is no question that after sending out Keuchel and Verlander to open this ALCS, sending out Morton is a step down in quality for the Astros and the offense is likely going to have to do a bit more work then they did in Games 1 and 2. Houston was 17-9 SU when Morton got the nod this year so it's not like they haven't had much success with him on the mound, but most of his rougher starts did come away from home this year, including his lone start vs. New York.
Morton has only seen this Yankees lineup once this year and it came in New York back in mid-May. It was a hit-or-miss type day for Morton as he struck out 10, walked 4, gave up four runs on four hits in 5.2 innings of work en route to a 10-7 Houston win. That game was actually the back end of a double-header that day, so the Astros were happy to get the split (they lost Game 1), but tonight they know the stakes are much higher and another start where Morton struggles with command will definitely have him on a short leash.
Given the desperate spot the Yankees are in down 0-2 in the series, bettors should expect the Yankees to force Morton into the strike zone early and then be ultra-aggressive when he does find the plate. Morton simply doesn't have the type of swing-and-miss stuff Verlander or Keuchel do, so this matchup against Morton could be the break New York needs to get back into this ALCS.
New York is countering with C.C Sabathia tonight and he's had a great resurgence in 2017. The Yankees were 20-9 SU when Sabathia got the start this year, and his biggest performance had to have come in Game 5 of the ALDS against Cleveland. C.C may have only went 4.1 innings that day, but the 9 K's he had helped he and the Yankees wiggle out of some early trouble in spots where if Cleveland had got that big hit when the opportunity was there, we wouldn't even be talking about the Yankees still playing baseball right now.
But the fact remains that Joe Girardi didn't trust Sabathia's stuff beyond the 5th inning – which would be the third time through the order – and for as good as he's been in 2017, he's still prone to a blowup or two if he's not painting the corners with his pitches. Sabathia is a long ways away from the guy who used to blow people away with power when he first entered MLB, and there might not be a better lineup than Houston's to take advantage of Sabathia that doesn't have his best stuff.
It's nearly impossible to know how well either of these starters will be tonight, but situationally, tonight's Game 3 lends itself to bettors seeing a bit more offense. Both starters could easily have tough outings early and after a pair of 2-1 games, the two offenses both teams have will break out sooner than later.
Five of the seven regular season meetings between these two cashed 'over' tickets, and in three of those games both sides scored 6+ runs. Houston is on an 11-5 O/U run on the road, including a 4-0 O/U stretch on the road against southpaws. That later number extends to 6-0 O/U against lefties overall, as they finished the regular season with the 4th best batting average against lefties in 2017.
The Yankees also have to know that a breakout performance by this Houston lineup is likely on it's way, and given New York is down 0-2 in the series, they've got to be prepared to slug it out too. New York averaged 5.56 runs per home game this year, and given Houston put up 6.13 per road game, these next three games in New York should see the offenses come to life.
I'm backing that situation will happen in tonight's Game 3, and although it's a popular play according to the betting percentage numbers at VegasInsider.com, the 'over' 8.5 looks to be the best way to attack this game from a betting perspective.
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-115)
