Monday's Best Bet
September 29, 2017
Monday Night Football Preview (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs
The Washington Redskins get to play under the bright lights of a primetime game for the second week in a row, and just like every other game for Washington this year, they enter as underdogs.
On SNF last week, the Redskins obliterated the Oakland Raiders from start to finish, and now they get to deal with another AFC West foe in the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL entering Week 4, as as touchdown home favorites for MNF, oddsmakers like their chances of pushing that record to 4-0 SU.
Bookmaker.eu Odds: Kansas City (-7); Total set at 49.5
Kansas City hasn't quite looked as good as they did in their opening week win over New England, but they are doing enough to get the job done. Aside from a brief stretch in the 2nd half against Philadelphia in Week 2, KC has reverted back to the dink-and-dunk, ball control team we've come to expect from them the past few years, getting outgained in total yards the last two weeks but still coming out ahead.
Last week against the Chargers, Kansas City really didn't have to open things up offensively as they played with the lead the entire way, but as we've seen from them in years past, that style of play isn't always conducive to the best results, especially against the spread.
Given the manner Washington dominated the Raiders a week ago, the Redskins are likely to garner some support at this +7 number. A fourth straight game as an underdog – with a 2-1 SU record – suggests that the Redskins are either playing above their head right now, or the overall market isn't nearly as high as they should be on this team.
Obviously, scheduling has a bit to do with the spreads they've been saddled with, but I'd lean towards the side of this team continually being undervalued by the masses. I'll let you all make that decision for yourselves though for this game as it's not the side I'm looking to bet – although gun to my head I would take the points.
This total of 49.5 is the number I'm looking to attack as much of the early week action believes this total is well too high. Given the Chiefs unwillingness to stretch the field like they did in Week 1, and the way Washington's defense suffocated Derek Carr and the Raiders offense last week, I can see why that perspective would be popular as a first reaction.
However, I'm not so sure Kansas City won't be forced to open things up in the passing game like they were in the 2nd half of their game against Philly a few weeks back. It's rare that the Chiefs first two home games of 2017 would be against non-conference rivals, but we've already seen Philadelphia and Washington play this year and they are built in a similar fashion. Both have prototypical pocket-passing QB's under center who aren't afraid to take shots to blow the top off a defense.
We have yet to really see that from Washington this year because they've been getting consistent production on the ground, but teams can pass on the Chiefs now that Eric Berry is out, as they've been outgained through the air by 60+ yards the last two weeks. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has enough receivers at his disposal to put on an air show in this game, and if he's got any level of success in doing that, Kansas City will have no choice but to get more aggressive and open things up offensively like they did against the Patriots.
So even with all the grumblings that this total is too high and the 'under' is the way to go, we've got to remember that the Chiefs are actually 2-1 O/U this year against the closing number. They've yet to ever really play from behind since Week 1, but this game against a Redskins team glowing with confidence right now is one where the Chiefs could face a multi-score deficit once again.
Opening things up isn't exactly a bad option for the Chiefs either with the likes of Tyreek Hill and his speed on their roster, and wouldn't you love to see an impromptu head-to-head battle between Hill and Washington's Terrelle Pryor as to who could catch the most deep passes here?
But when it comes down to it, this total is the highest on the board this week (outside of the New Orleans/Miami game in London) for a reason.
We've got two of the fastest receivers in the league here, two QB's who love to take shots downfield when the coaches let them go, and an AFC/NFC game that typically are ones where you want to look to the high side of the number.
Washington is 6-0 O/U in their last six on the road, 7-1 O/U after a win of 14+ points, 6-0 O/U after allowing a sub-90 yard rushing performance, 7-3 O/U in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, and 14-2 O/U after passing for 250+ yards.
It will be Cousins early on who feels like he'll have to take some shots downfield as the underdog – very similar to Alex Smith's mindset and gameplan vs. New England Week 1 – and when he ends up connecting on a few and putting up points, Andy Reid and the rest of KC's offensive coaching staff will have no choice but to turn their guys loose.
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet: Over 49.5 points