Ohio State vs. Oregon
By Brian Edwards
The first College Football Playoff National Championship is -- at long last -- upon us. Ohio State and Oregon are set to square off Monday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
On Saturday morning, Oregon received terrible news when wide receiver Darren Carrington was suspended for testing positive for marijuana. Carrington had seven receptions for 165 yards in last week's win over Florida State For the season, he had made 37 catches for 704 yards and four touchdowns.
This takes another weapon away from Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who was already without starting TE Pharaoh Brown, who had 25 receptions for 420 yards and six TDs before sustaining a serious knee injury in the Ducks' ninth game at Utah. Also, Oregon redshirt freshman WR Devon Allen is 'out' after getting injured on the opening kickoff vs. FSU. Allen has 41 catches for 674 yards and seven TDs.
The Westgate SuperBook opened Oregon as a seven-point favorite with a total of 73.5.
As of Thursday night, most betting shops had Oregon (13-1 straight up, 10-4 against the spread) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 75.5 points for 'over/under' wagers. At that time, gamblers were able to take the Buckeyes on the money line for a +185 payout (risk $100 to win $185).
Once the word of Carrington's suspension leaked out early Saturday, most books moved the number down to five. However, as of Sunday afternoon, the line was back up to six. The total was at 74.5 or 75 and the Buckeyes were +170 on the money line.
For first-half wagers, the Ducks are favored by 3.5 with a total of 37.5.
Since suffering its lone loss at home to Arizona, Oregon has won eight in a row both SU and ATS, including six wins over bowl-bound opponents. All eight of those wins came by margins of 12 points or more. The Ducks beat UCLA by 12, Stanford by 29, Washington by 25, Utah by 24, FSU by 39 and Arizona by 38.
Ohio State (13-1 SU, 9-5 ATS) has won 12 consecutive games and will play for the national title despite relying on a third-string QB in its last two games. Braxton Miller, the two-time Big Ten Player of the Year, was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury in late August. Therefore, redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett became the starter.
Barrett responded with a spectacular season, posting a 34/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for 938 yards and 11 TDs. In the regular-season finale, however, Barrett sustained a season-ending injury.
With Barrett out, Cardale Jones made his first career start at the Big Ten Championship Game. As a four-point underdog, Ohio State improbably blasted Wisconsin 59-0 to take the conference crown. Then last week at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, the Buckeyes won a 42-35 decision over Alabama as 7.5-point underdogs.
Ezekiel Elliott was the catalyst against the Crimson Tide, rushing 20 times for 230 yards and a pair of TDs, including an 85-yard scamper to daydirt with 3:24 remaining to put his team in front by 14 points. Jones completed 18-of-35 throws for 243 yards and one TD. He rushed for 43 yards on 17 totes.
For the season, Jones has connected on 40-of-69 passes (58%) for 618 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. In the win over Wisconsin, Jones completed 12-of-17 passes for 257 yards and three TDs without an interception. Devin Smith had all three of those TD receptions and had one against Alabama. Smith is one of the nation's best deep threats, averaging 27.7 yards per catch. He has 32 receptions for 886 yards and 12 TDs.
Elliott rushed for 220 yards against the Badgers. For the year, he has 1,632 rushing yards and 14 TDs, averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
Mariota's numbers this season have been insane. He has 40 TD passes compared to merely three interceptions. Mariota has run for 731 yards and 15 TDs. His favorite target is Byron Marshall, who has 66 receptions for 834 yards and five TDs. Royce Freeman has rushed for a team-best 1,343 yards and 18 TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC.
Oregon smashed FSU by a 59-20 count as a 7.5-point favorite at last week's Rose Bowl. Mariota threw for 338 yards and a pair of TDs. He also rushed for 62 yards and one TD on eight carries. Thomas Tyner and Freeman both had a pair of rushing scores, with Tyner rushing for a team-high 124 yards.
Oregon is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Ohio State has won outright in a pair of games as an underdog this year.
The 'over' is on a 12-1 run for Ohio State and has gone 12-2 overall. This is the highest total the Buckeyes have seen this year. The previous high was 66.5 in a 42-27 win over Indiana that saw the 69 combined points slip 'over' the tally. Only four of Ohio State's 14 games have had 76 combined points or more. The average combined score in Buckeye games is 67.1 points per game.
Oregon has seen seven totals in the 70s and they've been a wash (3-3-1). The 'over' is 7-6-1 overall for the Ducks, whose games have averaged a combined score of 69.5 PPG. We should note, however, that they had seen three straight 'under' appearances until the 'over' cashed in the blowout win over the 'Noles. Also, only four of Oregon's 14 games have had 75 combined points or more.
Sportsbooks have a slew of proposition bets posted. For instance, there are adjusted numbers with odds for the side.
For bettors that are extremely bullish on the Buckeyes, you can take them -3.5 points for a +225 return (risk $100 to win $225). One can also back Ohio State -7.5 points to earn a +350 payout.
On the flip side, gamblers can back Oregon to win by 22 points or more for a +225 return.
