Monday 09/21/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (+107, 9)

The Rangers offense has gone into the pits and it’s safe to say the reason is because Josh Hamilton and Michael Young aren’t in the lineup.

The two All-Stars have been missing games because of injuries. Texas has scored a total of just four runs over its last six games and it doesn’t look like Young or Hamilton will be rejoining the batting order this week.

“It’s just not ready,” Young told the Dallas Morning News about his sore hamstring. “It’s disappointing because obviously I want to play.”

Trying to cure their scoring problem at Oakland’s spacious park without Young and Hamilton is no easy task for the Rangers.

Pick: Under


New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-118, 9.5)

Joe Mauer is doing incredible things for the Twins in Minnesota, but if you want an MVP candidate on a playoff bound team look no farther than Mark Teixeira.

The Yankees first baseman had two homers a triple and five RBIs in his club’s 10-1 win over the Mariners on Saturday.

“We are a different team with that guy,” New York second baseman Robinson Cano told the Lower Hudson Journal News of Teixeira. “He changed a lot of things for us offensively and defensively. He takes pressure off everybody.”

Thirty-seven home runs, 118 RBIs and .381 on-base percentage will do that.

Look for the New York bats to get to Halos starter Joe Saunders early and often.

Pick: Yankees
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Wandy Rodriguez (13-10, 2.77), Houston Astros

Rodriguez is a frequent visitor to the streaking section. And he’s making up for a subpar August. Wandy the Wonderful has a 1.35 ERA and his team is 2-1 in this three starts this month.

Of course total bettors know all about his brilliance. The under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 appearances and 19-10-1 for the season.

Barry Zito (10-12, 3.94), San Francisco Giants

OK, so what if Zito will never live up to that bloated contract? He’s still a quality arm with good value each time he takes the ball.

The Giants have won seven of his last 10 starts and the under is 6-3-1 over the same period. The soft-tossing lefty showed us something different in his last start against the Rockies. Nine Colorado batters struck out at Zito’s mercy.

The southpaw hurler got a curtain call from the home fans following that last performance, something Zito hasn’t received too often.

“It doesn’t happen much to pitchers,” he told the San Francisco Chronicle. “I definitely love the fans’ support. When they’re booing they just want the team to do well. I interpret it differently than I used to. It’s definitely fun to hear them involved.”


Slumping

Derek Lowe (14-9, 4.53 ERA), Atlanta Braves

This veteran sinker ball pitcher missed a start last week and left after just two innings in his previous appearance because of a blister on his right ring finger.

It’s been a rough few weeks for Lowe. He owns a lofty 6.83 ERA over his last six starts but the Braves are still 4-2 in those games. The over has been a better strategy – it’s 5-0-1 over the stretch.

“It’s been kind of a struggle for me,” Lowe told reporters following a poor outing against the Astros when he was tagged for five earned runs. “If it was a normal year, where you’re a lot more consistent, then you can kind of settle down. But this is kind of how I’ve been pitching for so long. It’s been a long season.”

Kevin Millwood (10-10, 3.94), Texas Rangers

It used to be that the only day the Rangers could expect a quality start was the day that his veteran righty took the bump. That isn’t the case anymore. The young kids have been delivering the goods while old man Millwood has looked tired.

He’s given up five runs in four of his last five starts (7.62 ERA) and Texas is just 1-6 over his last seven trips to the hill.

“It’s a little frustrating,” Millwood said after a surrendering five runs to the Mariners in under four innings of work. “I’m trying to do some things to get it straightened out. It’s not working.”
 

Rx. Junior
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does anybody know anything about scamdicappers? if so, could you share their info or would you be interested in a share-buy group?
 
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Rob Vinciletti

MLB | Sep 21
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs Total
8½ ov-112 at 5DIMES > 20h.
On Monday night the Bonus Play is on the Over in the SanFrancisco at Arizona game. Rotation numbers 959/60 at 9:40 eastern. The pitching match up is what makes this play pop tonight. Barry Zito takes the mound tonight for the Giants and he has allowed 12 earned run in 16 innings over his last three starts vs Arizona. Doug Davis makes the start tonight for the Diamondbacks. In his home starts vs the Giants he has been rather easy to hit. He has allowed 9 runs and 16 hits vs the Giants in just 10 innings. The Giants are averaging over 5 runs per game over the past week. Both teams are cashing over 70% to the over on Monday nights. Take the over 8.5 runs tonight. In late phone action we had another big day on Sunday cashing the big play on the Jets and having another winning day after the 6-1 Saturday. On Monday I have a 16-1 Power angle on the total in the Monday night football game. In bases I have a 6 Unit 100% system/Double angle totals play going. For those interested in my side selection in the Monday night football. I will be in studio for the Monday night radio show between 7:10- 7:55 on wsia.fm 88.9. For the Bonus Play take the Over in the Giants at Diamondbacks game. BOL RV.
 
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Carlo Campanella

NFL | Sep 21
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Indianapolis Colts
-3OFF at BODOG > 19h.
Miami hosts the Colts on Monday Night Football and find themselves in the home Dog role for their home opener.Monday's home game is sandwiched in between two tough road games- Last Sunday's tough 7-19 loss in Atlanta and then they'll have to travel to San Diego next weekend- The road might be a better place for the Fish as they're 1-5 ATS during their last six at home behind Head Coach Tony Sparano. Dolphins QB Pennington is not in his best role either, as we find him at 4-11 ATS as a home Dog and now he tackles a Colts team that's looking to put some offense together after skimming by last Sunday with a 14-12 win against Jacksonville. Expect QB Manning to get things rolling in front of a national TV audience as the Colts are a profitable 5-1 ATS after being held to 14 points or less in their previous game during the Regular season.

7* Play On Indianapolis
 
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Vernon Croy

MLB | Sep 21
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles
+122 at 5DIMES > 18h.
1* Take the Baltimore Orioles ML, We are getting very good value here with the Orioles Monday night who have the superior pitcher on the mound. David Purcey (0-2, 6.32) has given up 4 homeruns over his last 2 starts and he was lit up in his only start against the Orioles in 2008 allowing 11 hits and 6 earned runs over just 5 innings. The Jays are just 1-6 in Purcey's last 7 starts in game 1 of a series and they are also just 7-20 in their last 27 games when facing a right hand starter. Chris Tillman (2-3, 4.50 ERA) pitched solid in his only start against the Jays this season where he allowed just 4 hits over 6.7 innings. Take the Baltimore Orioles as my MLB Bonus Play for Monday night.
 
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MLB WRITE-UP

Monday, September 21

Hot Pitchers
-- Leblanc is 2-0, 1.42 in his last three starts.
-- Gorzelanny is 1-0, 2.70 in his last couple starts.
-- Rodriguez has a 1.80 RA in his last five starts.
-- Zito is 2-1, 2.23 in his last six starts.

-- Blackburn is 2-7, 7.34 in his last twelve starts.
-- Saunders is 4-0, 3.00 in his last five starts. Pettitte is 5-0, 3.47 in his last nine starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- McCutchen is 0-2, 5.50 in three starts for the Pirates.
-- Lowe has a 6.75 RA in his last three starts. Misch is 0-2, 7.36 in his last couple starts.
-- Looper has a 4.94 RA in his last four starts.
-- Lohse is 0-1, 8.53 in his last three starts.
-- Davis is 0-3, 5.90 in his last seven starts.

-- Tillman is 1-3, 4.24 in his last six starts. Purcey is 0-2, 6.89 in his six starts this season.
-- Hudson was 14-5, 2.32 in 26 minor league starts this year; he made it all the way up from A ball to the big leagues this year- very unusual.
-- Wakefield is 1-1, 4.33 in his last four starts. Dinardo is 0-1, 5.23 in two starts for the Royals.
-- EGonzalez is 0-1, 3.79 in four starts for Oakland. Millwood is 1-3, 7.62 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Padres are 10-5 in their last 15 road games.
-- Braves won eight of their last ten games.
-- Brewers are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.

-- Royals won ten of their last thirteen games. Red Sox won ten of their last eleven games.
-- Twins won six of their last seven games.
-- Angels won three of their last four games.
-- A's won 12 of their last 14 games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 19 of their last 22 games.
-- Mets lost 10 of their last 13 games, but won last two.
-- Astros lost their last seven games, scoring total of 15 runs. St Louis lost six of its last nine games.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Arizona lost 12 of its last 16 games. Giants lost three of last four.

-- Toronto is 5-16 in last 21 games. Orioles lost their last four games, giving up 26 runs.
-- White Sox lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 4-5 in their last nine games.
-- Rangers lost six of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Five of last six San Diego games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-3-3 in Mets' last fourteen home games.
-- Eight of last twelve Cub games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-2 in last twelve Rodriguez starts.
-- Ten of last twelve Giant games went over the total.

-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Baltimore games.
-- 10 of White Sox' last 14 home games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Wakefield starts stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Bronx road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Oakland games stayed under the total.
 
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Trend Report

7:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. PITTSBURGH
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

7:07 PM
BALTIMORE vs. TORONTO
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Baltimore's last 12 games
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Toronto's last 17 games when playing at home against Baltimore

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY METS
Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. HOUSTON
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games

8:05 PM
CHI CUBS vs. MILWAUKEE
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 21 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing Chi Cubs

8:10 PM
BOSTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston

8:11 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Minnesota is 2-10 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chi White Sox's last 19 games

9:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

10:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. LA ANGELS
NY Yankees are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 12 of NY Yankees's last 16 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of LA Angels's last 19 games
LA Angels are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home

10:05 PM
TEXAS vs. OAKLAND
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Texas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
 
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Marc Lawrence MLB Bonus Play! - Monday 9/21
Play On: San Francisco w/ZIto

Note: The Giants open a critical three- game series with the Diamondbacks when they send Barry Zito to the hill in Arizona tonight. Zito enters tonight's fray with wins in 8 of his last 12 team starts overall and 8 of his last 10 team starts in September. He's also 2-0 in his last two starts in this series and 2-0 his last two starts in this park. Look for more of the same here this evening.
 
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Brad Diamond Sports Free MLB Action
Play on: Milwaukee (Looper) 956 over the Cubs
Difficult spot for Chicago coming off a road set against the Cardinals, especially considering last night's ESPN national affair. Emotionally and fundamentally the home standing Brewers have a major edge.
 
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Dominic Fazzini

I nailed my play on the Ravens on Sunday, giving me three straight winners on my complimentary selections! Now I'm turning back to the diamond to pick up another victory.

Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez (13-10, 2.77 ERA) is a really good pitcher, but when he takes the mound at Minute Maid Park he becomes nearly unbeatable.

The left-hander is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA in 14 home outings this season. He has pitched pretty well everywhere lately, allowing two runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts, logging an ERA of 2.15, but is only 7-4 during that stretch as Houston has struggled to give him much run support in many of those games.

Rodriguez has pitched well against St. Louis this year, holding the Cardinals to a .174 average in four starts, but he has gone just 1-2 despite a 2.25 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 0.34 ERA in his last four home starts vs. the NL Central leaders.

Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse (5-8, 4.83) has been hurt much of the season and inconsistent for all of it. The right-hander is making his first start since Sep. 12, when he allowed four runs and seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in a 7-6 loss to Atlanta.

Lohse is 1-4 with a 4.09 ERA in five road starts vs. Houston.

With the Cardinals on the verge of a division title, starting Lohse today is little more than just an audition to see if he's ready to contribute in the postseason. Yes, Houston has lost seven straight games coming into today, but I think it breaks that spell with Rodriguez on the mound. Take the Astros in this one.
3♦ HOUSTON
 
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Jeff Benton

The Raiders rallied late on Sunday to give me my third straight free-play winner. Let’s make it four in a row Monday by playing the Yankees-Angels game OVER the total.

Both these squads are loaded with quality hitters, so it should come as no surprise that pitching has been virtually nonexistent in this year’s meetings. And when I say nonexistent, I mean in seven Yankees-Angels battles this year, there have been a total of 97 runs – or an average of nearly 14 per game! Six of those seven games soared over the total, including all three clashes in Anaheim in July, when L.A. swept the weekend series by scores of 10-6, 14-8 and 5-4.

We’ve got two pitchers on the mound today that scream score-fest, too. Both Joe Saunders and Andy Pettitte have ERAs north of 4.10, and both come from the left side of the mound, which is noteworthy because both these teams crush left-handed pitching (each is hitting over .280 versus southpaws).

Finally, in two starts against the Angels this year, Pettitte has allowed 11 runs in 10 innings, and going back to 2002 against L.A., he’s given up 48 runs (47 earned) in 10 starts covering 55 innings (7.69 ERA). Saunders, meanwhile, has given up 19 runs (18 earned) in four career starts against New York spanning just 20 1/3 innings (7.97 ERA). Throw in two tired bullpens, and I see no reason why these teams won’t reach double digits in runs for the sixth time in eight meetings this season.
3♦ YANKEES-ANGELS OVER (BASED ON A 1♦ TO 10♦ SCALE
 
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Bobby Maxwell

Back on the diamond for a FREE winner tonight on the Angels as they host the Yankees in this possible playoff preview.

Tonight's battle of lefties should be a good one, but we're going with the Angels at home who are feeling pretty good about themselves after winning three of their last four, including two of three in Texas against their nearest rivals in the A.L. West.

Joe Saunders (13-7, 4.75 ERA) is on the hill for Los Angeles and he's 6-3 in front of the home crowd this year, including 2-0 in his last three outings. The Angels have won four of his last five starts and in each of his last five he's held the opposition to two earned runs or less. He faced these Yankees back on July 10 and got the win thanks to his offense pulling out the 10-6 victory. Los Angeles has won three of his four starts against the Yankees in his career.

For the Yankees, it's veteran Andy Pettitte (13-6, 4.14 ERA). He was roughed up by the Angels back on July 11, giving up six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innigns of a 14-8 loss in Anaheim. Pettitte has lost his last three outings in Anaheim and been hit hard in all three.

The Angels are 39-19 in their last 58 against left-handed starters, including 10-3 in the last 13 home games against southpaws. Los Angeles is 6-1 in their last seven at home and 9-3 when Saunders faces A.L. East teams.

The Angels are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings with the Yankees in California and 4-1 in their last five meetings with Pettitte. Love the Angels in this one.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
 
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Karl Garrett

Sunday comp play winner on the Vikings from the G-Man, now 7-3 the last 10 days with my comp plays.

For Monday night in the NFL, the G-Man going to play the UNDER between the Colts and Dolphins.

Both teams opened with UNDERS last week, and both teams struggled on offense in doing so. To think that the offenses will all of the sudden light up the scoreboard would be wishful thinking.

Truth be told, the points have been hard to come by of late for both teams, as Indy has played 6 of their last 8 dating back to last season - playoffs included -UNDER the posted total, while Miami has played 10 of their 12 dating back to a season ago - playoffs included - UNDER the posted price.

Miami has also held LOW in 8 of their last 10 games played at Landshark Stadium.

I think it is going to be one of those nights where there are plenty of three-and-outs.

G-Man going UNDER the total this Monday night.
3♦ UNDER
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline
Sunday comp play winner on New Orleans-Philadelphia OVER the total, now 36-21-3 with our Bonus Plays the last 60 days.

With Sunday's 2-1 win at Chicago, the Royals head back home having won 11 of their last 14 games, and we like the price on them tonight at home against Boston.

Sure, the Red Sox have lost just once in their last 12 games, but our jury is out on Tim Wakefield, as his durability during the second half of the season has been questionable at best.

Lenny Dinardo is making just his third start of the season for Kansas City, and while we don't expect him to go very long in this spot, we are also of the opinion that Wakefield is not going to be around for very long in this game either.

Series numbers point towards Boston, but the way the Royals have been competing down the stretch, and the fact you don't know what you are going to get from Wakefield has us playing the home underdog in this spot on Monday night.

Play on Kansas City.
2? KANSAS CITY
 
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Dave Cokin

(955) CHICAGO CUBS
(956) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take "(956) MILWAUKEE BREWERS"

The Brewers are hot, winning five straight heading into tonight's hookup with the Cubs. The scheduling dynamics favor Milwaukee, with the Cubs playing on Sunday night in St. Louis. Tom Gorzelanny doesn't match up especially well with this lineup, and the Cubs lefty has been working only sporadically out of the bullpen lately. Braden Looper is no great shakes, but he wins more than he loses at home and the team analysis puts me on the Brewers tonight.
 
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Jim Feist

(951) SAN DIEGO PADRES
(952) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take "Under"

Would you rather watch grass grow or the Padres and Pirates play here on Monday? Well, they may actually be one in the same for the folks at the ballpark as you really don't expect many runs between these two clubs. The Padres are last in the league in runs scored (3.85 rpg) and the Pirates are just two slots higher at 3.97 rpg. Add to the fact that the two starters in this contest have a combined 14 games of major league experience and the grass option is looking mighty good. Wade LeBlanc starts for the Padres and has pitched well with a 2-1 record and 4.30 ERA. Daniel McCutchen opposes for the Pirates and has just three games this season with a 5.50 ERA. Boring or not, cashing with a winner is just as green and this game will be going UNDER the total.
 

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