Monday 07/27/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday 07/27/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be used for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

The oft-injured Carpenter (8-3, 2.26 ERA) looks as though he might finally be returning to top form, which couldn’t come at a better time for the reeling Cardinals. St. Louis pitchers were battered by the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend, yielding 23 runs while dropping both games in embarrassing fashion.

Carpenter, a 21-game winner and the National League Cy Young award winner in 2005, has missed most of the past two seasons with injuries. His career was speculated to be in jeopardy after he struggled to recover from Tommy John surgery, and he spent part of this season on the disabled list as well.

However, he has rebounded to give the St. Louis rotation some needed stability. Carpenter, 34, is 3-0 with one no decision in his past four starts, striking out 23 while walking just six in this span. He has given up more than three earned runs just once in last 10 starts.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

Seattle’s ace right-hander quietly has put together one of the more impressive seasons for starters in the American League. Moreover, he has almost single-handedly kept the Mariners in contention in the American League West.

The 23-year-old Hernandez (11-3, 2.45 ERA) has won his last six decisions, and has four more no decisions to go along with them in his past 10 starts, nine of which resulted in Seattle victories.

He has been a model of consistency in this span, throwing more than 100 pitches each time out, and has gone seven innings or longer nine times. Hernandez takes the mound Monday on the heels of back-to-back road wins against the Cleveland Indians and Toronto Blue Jays.


Slumping

Jason Berken, Baltimore Orioles

At what point does a “slump” officially turn into a season of misery? Ask Baltimore’s Jason Berken (1-8, 6.55 ERA). On second thought, it might be best to let the numbers speak for themselves.

After winning his first start of the season, the 25-year-old rightly has reeled off a forgettable run of eight losses and two no decisions in his past 10 starts. He has given up four or more earned runs six times during this span, including a nine-spot against the light-hitting Oakland A’s.

He yielded 11 earned runs over 10-plus innings in his past two starts, losses to the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees.

Jon Garland, Arizona Diamondbacks

The erstwhile reliable Garland has struggled in his first year with the Diamondbacks, suffering from some control problems and a lack of run support.

The 29-year-old Garland (5-9, 4.41 ERA) needs to pick up some wins fast in order to make it eight straight seasons with double-figure wins, a streak that includes back-to-back 18-win campaigns for the White Sox.

Garland has slumped to a mark of 1-2 with two no decisions in his past five starts, and has walked at least two batters in five of his past 10 outings. He gave up three earned runs against the Colorado Rockies in his last start, which resulted in a no decision.

 

[CADILLACJACK]

Been following this guy "HUDSON" from another site....2-0 yesterday/14-2 L/16 plays!! He's on the BREWERS and MARINERS today. If he stays hot I'll keep posting his plays as I see them.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB WRITE-UP

Monday, July 27

Hot Pitchers
-- Zambrano is 3-1, 3.41 in his last five starts. Rodriguez is 5-0, 1.50 in his last six starts.
-- Wolf is 2-1, 2.84 in his last five starts. Carpenter is 3-0, 1.86 in his last four outings.
-- Stammen is 2-2, 2.15 in his last four starts.
-- Garland has a 3.33 RA in his last five starts. Moyer is 5-1, 4.46 in his last six starts (2.50 RA in his last three road starts).
-- Lincecum is 4-1, 1.85 in his last six starts.

-- Burnett is 4-0, 2.43 in his last five starts.
-- Beckett is 4-1, 2.12 in his last six starts.
-- Galarraga has a 2.36 RA in his last four starts. Hunter is 2-0, 1.04 in his last three starts.
-- Danks is 3-0, 2.52 in his last four starts.
-- Hernandez is 4-0, 1.45 in his last four starts. Toronto won six of last eight Romero starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Bailey is 0-2, 8.44 in his last four starts. Geer is 0-5, 6.44 in his last ten starts.
-- Rockies lost eight of last ten Jimenez road starts. Perez is 1-2, 7.62 in his last six starts.
-- Suppan is 0-3, 6.52 in his last seven starts.
-- Maholm has a 7.59 RA in his last six road starts.

-- Shields is 0-1, 4.96 in his last five starts.
-- Chen is 0-5, 6.93 in five starts this season. Hill is 0-2, 11.45 in his last five starts.
-- Cahill is 1-3, 9.27 in his last five road starts.
-- Perkins is 1-2, 13.94 in his last two starts.
-- Pavano is 2-4, 8.17 in his last seven starts. Saunders is 0-2, 10.52 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Rockies won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Nationals won four of their last six games, but they're 5-24 in their last 29 road games.
-- Astros won 10 of their last 15 games. Cubs are 8-2 since the All-Star break.
-- Phillies won 17 of their last 20 games. Arizona won three of four.
-- Dodgers won six of their last eight games.

-- Tampa Bay is 21-5 in its last 26 home games. Bronx won nine of its last ten games.
-- Tigers won three of their last four games, but lost five of their last six on the road. Rangers won six of their last seven games.
-- Angels won 11 of their last 14 games. Indians won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost five of their last seven games.
-- Mets lost six of their last nine road games.
-- Reds lost 12 of their last 15 games. Padres lost 18 of their last 22. .
-- Brewers lost seven of their last ten home games.
-- Pirates lost ten of their last twelve road games. Giants lost five of last six games, but are 10-3 in their last thirteen home contests.

-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine games. Royals lost eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Oakland lost 14 of its last 22 road games. Red Sox lost six of eight.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last nine road games. Twins lost six of their last eight games.
-- Mariners are 3-6 in their last nine home games. Toronto lost 11 of its last 13 road games.

Totals
-- Under is 10-4-1 in Cincinnati's last fifteen home games.
-- Six of last eight Colorado road games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Washington road games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in Houston's last 17 road games.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Dodgers' last eleven road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Phillies' last seven games.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in Pirates' last twelve road games.

-- Over is 7-3-1 in Bronx Bombers' last eleven road games.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in Royals' last fourteen road games.
-- Under is 9-0-1 in last ten Boston games.
-- Under is 9-0-2 in last eleven Texas games.
-- Nine of last ten White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in Cleveland's last five games.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in Toronto's last fourteen games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend Report

7:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BALTIMORE
Kansas City is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
Kansas City is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

7:08 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Yankees are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

7:10 PM
COLORADO vs. NY METS
Colorado is 2-18 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Colorado

7:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ST. LOUIS
LA Dodgers are 3-16 SU in their last 19 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
LA Dodgers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games
St. Louis is 16-5 SU in their last 21 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers

7:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. BOSTON
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Oakland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland

7:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home

8:05 PM
DETROIT vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Texas's last 11 games

8:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. CHI CUBS
Houston is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home

8:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MILWAUKEE
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games at home

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
Chi White Sox are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

9:40 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
Philadelphia is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

10:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. LA ANGELS
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
LA Angels are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home

10:10 PM
TORONTO vs. SEATTLE
Toronto is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Toronto
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

10:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals -172

This one could come down to a battle of the bullpens and, if this is the case, it’s advantage: Dodgers.

The battle of starters between Randy Wolf of the Dodgers and the resurgent Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals is closer than it appears on paper, but Carpenter gives the edge to the Cardinals.

Even so, the Busch Stadium hopeful had better pray that they get Carpenter’s best stuff. Otherwise, it could be another long night.

The Cardinals return home having lost five of seven in their recent road swing, and new addition Matt Holliday hasn’t been enough to overcome season-long woes from their relief pitchers.

In losing two of three to the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend, the St. Louis bullpen gave up 21 earned runs for an ERA of 7.66. For the season, they have a bullpen ERA of 4.18, which is 21st in the majors.

The Dodgers, who won six of eight on their recent home stand, have had one of the league’s most effective bullpens. Their 3.24 bullpen ERA ranks second in the majors.

The price here provides enough value to back the team with the best record in the majors.

Pick: Dodgers


Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (+142)

Some things just don’t go together, like orange juice and toothpaste, Regis and Kathy Lee ... and logic and the New York Mets.

The Mets seemed to be inventing new ways to lose games; their 5-4 loss Friday was aided by a home run to the opposing pitcher, Houston’s Mike Hampton, given up by their ace Johan Santana.

Upon sinking to their worst record in five years, many bettors decided there was no time like now to jump off the Mets’ bandwagon.

Naturally, the Mets responded by beating Houston two straight days by a combined score of 18-6.

The Mets’ erratic tendencies could provide value here. They are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog, whereas the Rockies are 16-5 in their past 21 road games. Going against conventional wisdom seems to be the only move with the Mets.

Pick: Mets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks o10.0 (-110)
Mon Jul 27 '09 9:40p

The reigning World Series champions are tearing the cover off the ball right now. The Phillies are hitting .297 over their past 17 games and averaging 7.1 runs per game during that stretch. Sunday, The Phils put on another power display hitting, four two-run homers in a lopsided win over the Cardinals, The big flies from Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez gave Philadelphia a NL leading 138 home runs.

Ibanez has four homers and 13 RBIs in 10 games since the All-Star break. Howard is batting .381 with four homers and 12 RBIs in the last 12 while Rollins has hit .344. Those big numbers have helped the Phillies win 15 of their last 17 games. Philadelphia is now third in the majors in runs scored and homers and second in OPS.

The Diamondbacks are also heating up offensively. The Snakes have hit .305 over their last seven games and have scored a total of 45 runs. However they’ll need a solid effort from Jon Garland to keep them in the game against the high octane Philadelphia offense. Garland is 5-9 with a 4.41. He’s gotten three runs or less of run support in 11 of his 12 starts and has a 1-7 record to show for it. Garland has faced Philadelphia twice in his career and is 0-1 with an ERA of 9.90. Garland though has been tough in his last three starts overall posting a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 2.57

The Phillies will counter with Jamie Moyer who is 9-7 with a high 5.65 ERA. Moyer, unlike Garland, has benefited from plenty of run support but could easily be in double-digits in the loss department. The 46-year old Moyer is 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA in three starts in Arizona. However he’s been a gopher ball machine this season allowing 21 homeruns in just over 106 innings. That problem could be even more magnified at hitter friendly Chase Field.

The Diamondbacks have been cashing the OVER with regularity this season posting a record of 32-19-1. The Diamondbacks bullpen is ranked 26th in the league and their 30th ranked defense brings back memories of that old Michael Jackson joke. What do Michael Jackson and the Diamondbacks have in common? They both wear a glove for no apparent reason.

All attempts at comedy aside, the stats and trends point to an OVER play tonight with a lean towards Philadelphia.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Craig Trapp

MLB | Jul 27
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs
-144 at BOOKM > 13h.

CHC -148: This line is already moved up 20 pts so make sure you lock it in quick. The Cubs are trying to win there 5th in a row whereas HOU is trying to avoid a three game losing streak. CHC turn to ace Zambrano who has been very good verse HOU this year going 1-0 in two starts with a 1.29 ERA. Big Z has won three games in a row and looks to have regained his form since early season struggles. HOU will counter with there top pitcher this year Rodriguez who has been great as of late. He has a 2.72 ERA on the season but struggles a little on road with a record of only 5-4. Look for this to be pitchers duel early. As this games moves into the HOU bullpen in the 6th or 7th inning look for CHC to take advantage and win late. HOU is struggling at the plate right now losing two to the pitiful banged up Mets. CHC pull away late. SCORE CHC 4 - HOU 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robbie Gainous

MLB | Jul 27
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers
-130 at JAMAICA > 13h.
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington Texas will be the site of a three-game set between the host Texas Rangers and the visiting Detroit Tigers. Texas has been solid at home posting a record of 32-19 (+10.3) averaging 5.4 runs per game. The Tigers are 21-29 (-7.4) when playing away from home averaging 4.0 runs per game and 8-26 (-17.1) on the road playing against a winning team during the second half of the season. Detroit is 8-20 (-10.5) as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season and 5-16 (-9.9) as a road underdog in the same price range. Texas will send right-hander Tommy Hunter to the bump with his 2-1 record and ERA of 2.17. Over his last three starts he is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.04. The Tigers will send Armando Galarraga to the mound with his 5-8 record and ERA of 4.82 on the season. Galarraga is 2-11 (10.7) when he takes the hill under the lights and 1-7 his last 8 starts as an underdog. Galarraga has struggled his last three outings going 0-1 with an ERA of 2.66 and the Tigers going 0-3 (-3.6) behind him over that span. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rangers win tonight over the Tigers by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also favors the host by 0.87 runs. We will back the Rangers here as they grab game one on Monday night in Arlington.

Graded Selection: 2* Texas Rangers 5 Detroit Tigers 4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

MONDAY MARINERS -170

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(967) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
(968) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take "(968) BALTIMORE ORIOLES"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

(957) HOUSTON ASTROS
(958) CHICAGO CUBS
Take "Under"

Always a risky proposition taking a total at Wrigley with tricky wind situations. However, the proper pitching matchup can go a long way to countering the wind. That's just what we get here today with Wandy Rodriguez on the hill for the Astros and Carlos Zambrano for the the Cubs. First off, the Cubs have been an anemic hitting club most of the season. With the exceptions of Home Runs, the Cubs are below league average in most other offensive categories. Rodriguez has been red-hot of late, going 3-0 his last three starts with a 0.41 EA. He's faced the Cubs twice this year and while he doesn't have a decision, he's got a nifty 1.38 ERA. Zambrano is also on a heater, going 3-0 his last three starts with a 3.57 ERA. He also has a excellent lifetime mark against the Astros with a 13-7 record and 2.59 ERA. Two good pitchers, two sub-par hitting clubs. Under looks like the way to go in this contest on Monday.

 

[LeifSheppard]

I've always wondered. What the hell are "sirignanos" that Mighty Quinn bets with?

 

[Yanks]

MR EAST

MLB MONDAY Bonus Play

#957 HOUSTON ASTROS @ #958 CHICAGO CUBS

The Houston Astros have Wandy Rodriguez on the hill against the Cubs. Rodriguez has had a breakout season, and is pitching the best baseball of his career right now. Rodriguez has led the Astros to a 14-6 mark in his 20 starts, and over his last 4 starts has been nearly untouchable with a 0.62 ERA, and the Astros have won each of his last 6 starts, and he has allowed 2 runs or less in 70% of his starts on the season. The Cubs Carlos Zambrano is having another good seson as well, but they are just 4-9 in his last 13 starts as a favorite of -110- to -150. The Astros have been coming up big after a loss, as they are now 15-5 in their last 20 after a setback. I'm going with the Astros in this one.

PLAY ON #957 HOUSTON ASTROS +140 FOR 3 UNITS

MR EAST RATES HIS PLAYS FROM 3-5 UNITS WITH 5 TOP

 

[fly73]

Jimmy Boyd

Bonus Play

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants -1½-105

Take S.F. for 1 unit on the run line.

1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -1.5 -105

 

[fly73]

John Ryan

Bonus Play

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners -166


Take Seattle.

 

[fly73]

Ron Raymond

Free Pick

MIL / WAS Under 9.5


Play the UNDER 9.5 -115

 

[fly73]

Mikey Sports

Free MLB Play

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers

Detroit Tigers +130

 

[JDizzle311]

Mikey Sports

Free MLB Play

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers

Detroit Tigers +130

Dont post Bonus Plays here! They are totally worthless and not even something I consider when betting....

 

[tbooker]

Jdizzle

a truthful statement@)