For those who handicap horse racing, this is basically "The Sheets" or "Thorograph" for College Basketball!!
Bold = Home
Italics = Away
Normal = Neutral
Lower the number, the better the performance/effort. Each point difference is worth roughly 2 points.
Ignore the opponent! Performance ratings are already opponent strength adjusted!!
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Ohio vs Indiana (Neutral)
Ohio Game Ratings
16 - William & Mary
17 - Austin Peay
21 - George Mason
16 - Tulsa
23 - Lamar
26 - Louisville
I would of thought Ohio would of put up a better game yesterday vs Louisville, however Louisville was still in the "heat" from that debacle vs Western Kentucky so it can be dismissed. However, coming off their worst two performances of the season, this is a GREAT looking pattern for tonight. They've done 17's before on the road. I think they can get back there tonight. Predicted rating: 17.
Indiana St. Game Ratings
28 - Northern Illinois
25 - North Texas
24 - Murray St.
22 - DePaul
20 - Arkansas St.
27 - Louisville
20 - Lamar
Sycamores have been steady progress throughout the season, until they hit their 20 level, but in their defense, that was Louisville's first game on the "heat" after the WKU loss. Classic recipe brewed there for a wipeout. However, repeating the 20 vs Lamar is still a big effort from what we've seen from this team. My instincts tell me that they won't be able to put up another one like that. Regression here IMO. Predicted Rating: 23
Forecast: Ohio - 17, Indiana St. 23 (Ohio -12)
Play: Ohio -6 for 2.5 units.
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Wichita St. at TCU
Wichita St. Game Ratings
16 - Florida A&M
18 - Missouri-KC
16 - Centenary
14 - Georgetown
14 - Siena
23 - Michigan St.
12 - Texas Tech
Wichita St. has been the model of consistancy all season long. Steadily improving their performances. The double 14 against Georgetown and Siena wiped them out however, causing them to throw a clunker against Michigan State. They then came back with a NEW top effort on the road against Texas Tech! Long-term and down the road, this pattern is very promising, but for their next game, this looks awful! Another 12 on the road? No chance in hell. There will be regression here. Likely to atleast the 16-18 range. I will be very interested in playing their next home game after this one. Predicted rating: 17.
TCU Game Ratings
24 - Western Michigan
14 - Clemson
21 - Charleston
20 - Nebraska
22 - McNeese St.
14 - Southern Methodist
NR - St. Gregory
14 - Colorado
21 - Texas A&M C&C
What, what a wild blend of inconsistancy. They've got 14's sandwiched by 20s all over the place, including two road 14's! Although I hate this pattern for the long-run, coming off the 21 at home, I am LOVING it today. This team has some talent and will put it together eventually.. Why not another 14 at home here? Good spot to do it against Wichita St. flying in off a top at Texas Tech.
Forecast: TCU 14 - Wichita St. 17 (TCU -6)
Play: TCU -2.5 for 1.5 units
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San Jose St. at San Diego
San Jose St. Game Ratings
23 - South Dakota St.
26 - Nebraska
NR - Cal Maritime
24 - Presbyterian
19 - Santa Clara
SJSU comes out jacked up in their home game against Santa Clara and runs a season high 19. Either San Jose St. has been sleeping in their first 3 rated games or there's a very good percentage they retreat off that 19. Coming back on the road here, I see them running no better than their road top of 23.
San Diego Game Ratings
21 - UNLV
18 - Nevada
17 - Valparaiso
19 - Wisconsin
31 - Miami FL
NR - San Diego Christian
17 - Cal St. Bakersfield
21 - San Diego St.
San Diego retreated off 17 a couple times, but from the reactions (to 19, to 21), it doesn't appear to be a "Major Wall" of resistance. They can bust through there. Now coming off the 21 and into their 2nd Division 1 game at home. I think they make a decent move forward here. Prediction: 15
Forecast: San Jose St. 23 - San Diego 15 (San Diego -16)
Play: San Diego -8.5 for 3 units
Recap
San Diego -8.5 for 3 units
Ohio -6 for 2.5 units
TCU -2.5 for 1.5 units
Bold = Home
Italics = Away
Normal = Neutral
Lower the number, the better the performance/effort. Each point difference is worth roughly 2 points.
Ignore the opponent! Performance ratings are already opponent strength adjusted!!
===============================================
Ohio vs Indiana (Neutral)
Ohio Game Ratings
16 - William & Mary
17 - Austin Peay
21 - George Mason
16 - Tulsa
23 - Lamar
26 - Louisville
I would of thought Ohio would of put up a better game yesterday vs Louisville, however Louisville was still in the "heat" from that debacle vs Western Kentucky so it can be dismissed. However, coming off their worst two performances of the season, this is a GREAT looking pattern for tonight. They've done 17's before on the road. I think they can get back there tonight. Predicted rating: 17.
Indiana St. Game Ratings
28 - Northern Illinois
25 - North Texas
24 - Murray St.
22 - DePaul
20 - Arkansas St.
27 - Louisville
20 - Lamar
Sycamores have been steady progress throughout the season, until they hit their 20 level, but in their defense, that was Louisville's first game on the "heat" after the WKU loss. Classic recipe brewed there for a wipeout. However, repeating the 20 vs Lamar is still a big effort from what we've seen from this team. My instincts tell me that they won't be able to put up another one like that. Regression here IMO. Predicted Rating: 23
Forecast: Ohio - 17, Indiana St. 23 (Ohio -12)
Play: Ohio -6 for 2.5 units.
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Wichita St. at TCU
Wichita St. Game Ratings
16 - Florida A&M
18 - Missouri-KC
16 - Centenary
14 - Georgetown
14 - Siena
23 - Michigan St.
12 - Texas Tech
Wichita St. has been the model of consistancy all season long. Steadily improving their performances. The double 14 against Georgetown and Siena wiped them out however, causing them to throw a clunker against Michigan State. They then came back with a NEW top effort on the road against Texas Tech! Long-term and down the road, this pattern is very promising, but for their next game, this looks awful! Another 12 on the road? No chance in hell. There will be regression here. Likely to atleast the 16-18 range. I will be very interested in playing their next home game after this one. Predicted rating: 17.
TCU Game Ratings
24 - Western Michigan
14 - Clemson
21 - Charleston
20 - Nebraska
22 - McNeese St.
14 - Southern Methodist
NR - St. Gregory
14 - Colorado
21 - Texas A&M C&C
What, what a wild blend of inconsistancy. They've got 14's sandwiched by 20s all over the place, including two road 14's! Although I hate this pattern for the long-run, coming off the 21 at home, I am LOVING it today. This team has some talent and will put it together eventually.. Why not another 14 at home here? Good spot to do it against Wichita St. flying in off a top at Texas Tech.
Forecast: TCU 14 - Wichita St. 17 (TCU -6)
Play: TCU -2.5 for 1.5 units
===============================================
San Jose St. at San Diego
San Jose St. Game Ratings
23 - South Dakota St.
26 - Nebraska
NR - Cal Maritime
24 - Presbyterian
19 - Santa Clara
SJSU comes out jacked up in their home game against Santa Clara and runs a season high 19. Either San Jose St. has been sleeping in their first 3 rated games or there's a very good percentage they retreat off that 19. Coming back on the road here, I see them running no better than their road top of 23.
San Diego Game Ratings
21 - UNLV
18 - Nevada
17 - Valparaiso
19 - Wisconsin
31 - Miami FL
NR - San Diego Christian
17 - Cal St. Bakersfield
21 - San Diego St.
San Diego retreated off 17 a couple times, but from the reactions (to 19, to 21), it doesn't appear to be a "Major Wall" of resistance. They can bust through there. Now coming off the 21 and into their 2nd Division 1 game at home. I think they make a decent move forward here. Prediction: 15
Forecast: San Jose St. 23 - San Diego 15 (San Diego -16)
Play: San Diego -8.5 for 3 units
Recap
San Diego -8.5 for 3 units
Ohio -6 for 2.5 units
TCU -2.5 for 1.5 units
