MOB's NFL Playoffs

[Mobdeeper7239]

Alright hereeeeeee we go.

Last year Wild card round I shit the bed. Went 1-3 in the wild card...have some people to vouch for that. I think the wild card round has been easier than it seems.. I did a little bit of overthinking last year. Divisonal rd absoulutely requires that. I don't even need to mention...


http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=941583&highlight=



First play


Colts ML +118



Wild card round games don't see the opening line move like this. You just dont. Big money or not... you don't see this type of movement. In the last 20 years, only 14 games have moved from the opening line in this round... and 12 of those wins were from the home team. 12-1-1 ats.

Points do come into play here. It has happened. But to take points would be an idiotic thing to do.... for this game that is. There hasn't been one in 7 years in this rd. Since the Romo bobble. Which makes me think there is another on the horizion but lets take it one game at a time...

 

[Grindstone30]

Alright hereeeeeee we go.

Last year Wild card round I shit the bed. Went 1-3 in the wild card...have some people to vouch for that. I think the wild card round has been easier than it seems.. I did a little bit of overthinking last year. Divisonal rd absoulutely requires that. I don't even need to mention...


http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=941583&highlight=



First play


Colts ML +118



Wild card round games don't see the opening line move like this. You just dont. Big money or not... you don't see this type of movement. In the last 20 years, only 14 games have moved from the opening line in this round... and 12 of those wins were from the home team. 12-1-1 ats.

Points do come into play here. It has happened. But to take points would be an idiotic thing to do.... for this game that is. There hasn't been one in 7 years in this rd. Since the Romo bobble. Which makes me think there is another on the horizion but lets take it one game at a time...

Yes sir love the Colts myself buddy GL and also Leaning Philly any thoughts???

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Yes sir love the Colts myself buddy GL and also Leaning Philly any thoughts???

Been going back and forth with that... Going to wait until after this game before I decide on a play on that. Liked philly at first but starting to gravitate towards Sean Payton. Eagles haven't been good at home all year. Saints kind of lucked out getting them. Probably the lone team that they can beat on the road in the nfl playoffs.... and all this talk about they can't do it 0-4 bullshit... Those type of "stats/trends" are suppose to be broken.

 

[nojuice9]

you have any theories on the line movement in the Chiefs game? Good luck during the tournament!

 

[juice9]

On the colts my self today. On the second game I'm going with New Orleans. I just think they are the better team plain and simple. Hope you cash today Mob!

 

[rowdyroddy]

GL , like colts too.
Saints can and will score, think saints and over may be safe play here.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

GL , like colts too.
Saints can and will score, think saints and over may be safe play here.

Dogs that win straight up on the road are 19-7 towards the under since 99.

If saints ml cashes, I think it will go under

there just hasnt been many road dogs win lately...

 

[candylicker]

gl Mob... do ur thing

 

[ballerhanz]

Gotta back the home dog...yes sir yessir

 

[rowdyroddy]

Dogs that win straight up on the road are 19-7 towards the under since 99.

If saints ml cashes, I think it will go under

there just hasnt been many road dogs win lately...

up to 55, may be on to something

 

[ballerhanz]

I agree. If Philly wins, it goes over. If Saints win, it goes under. It sounds counter-intuitve, but that's how it plays out IMO

 

[CruzControl]

Liking the agreeance Mob. BOL!
CC

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

I forgot to add it has to cross over 1.5 pts. But the only thing that has me scratching my head is that none of the games crossed through pk and changed from a favorite to a dog over 1.5

 

[Green17]

Hey Mob,
GL mister.
I'll be following your thread as often as I can.

 

[loomis41973]

Doittoit

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Doittoit

starting to get a bad bad feeling about the colts...

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

reading the forums lol. All these sheep are saying... " Andrew Luck over Alex Smith anyday everyday" Like no shit he is better. But they both went #1.... Just makes sense that Alex Smith would win this game lol...that's whats scaring me

 

[Tesla]

Alright hereeeeeee we go.
Wild card round games don't see the opening line move like this. You just dont. Big money or not... you don't see this type of movement. In the last 20 years, only 14 games have moved from the opening line in this round... and 12 of those wins were from the home team. 12-1-1 ats.

Do you know off hand how many of those 14 games moved in favor of the road team (as in today's case) ?

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Do you know off hand how many of those 14 games moved in favor of the road team (as in today's case) ?

It didn't matter. All of them that did, lost.

But the key thing is... NONE of them moved from a dog to fav. or in the colts case... a fav to a dog......

With the Packers ML going to cash on Sunday afternoon....


I may buy out of the colts here before kick off... I may have jumped the gun on a stat that has been butter over the last few years.. But the key is... I have never seen the switch. and in the nfl playoffs.... who is a fav and who is a dog is very important

hno:

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Wouldn't expect both road favs to win here. but I also don't expect both of them to lose. and I already know that San Fran will lose come sunday... so I probably will buy out. I put $300 on Colts ML.. I will have to take KC -1.5 at -105 to win 300 if I Buy out