MNF musings

[bobthefireman]

:coffeetim Random thoughts on a rainy (hiny hint) Monday afternoon (in Dallas)

1) before the line came out last sunday night, I was expecting, based on various power ratings, to see something like Phil-8, or even 9. When I saw 5 1/2 to 6,
I said to myself, "self, :WTF: ?" Also, prior to line release, I said to myself, "self, I would'nt take the Cowboys if my life depended on it!", no matter what the line is....

2) Always a bad idea to lay points on the road to a division rival,....especially in a "marquee" game like SNF or MNF. Two of the heavyest betted games on any given weekend.

3) Joe Public is all over Philly like white on rice. 80% or more, and it's not even close to gametime. I think local guys go to Phil-7 1/2 by tonight.

4) MOST OF THE PEOPLE ARE WRONG, MOST OF THE TIME!
How do you think them big casino's got bigger? :ughhh:

5) Vegas is not in the habit of giving :money8: away.
especially not on back to back SNF and MNF nites.

6) last night the Pats should have been favored by more than 7. It was what you call..."too easy" for squares to make money. NE way better than Buff. Simply pick the better team,(see Ace-Ace Pitt thread) and head for the window. It stands to reason, that if you had Pats last night, and were counting your money by halftime, the natural inclination would be to take your profits, and try to pound "The Man" again tonight on MNF. The Eagles are obviously the better team. Parcells has been calling his team "stupid" all week.
Fans have been calling for Cowpokes to bench Vinny and give Drew Henson the wheel. Expectations for the Cowboys could'nt be any lower, even here, in Dallas.

7) "not so fast my friend"......in the crazy world of NFL, nothing is ever as easy as it might seem,......just ask the folks who were "ON" all the big games yesterday. Green Bay-Loser, Houston catching 8+,Loser, KC against a team with a defense almost as bad as their own, Loser. Wash against a winless on the road Bengal team, Loser. Resurgent Buc squad with a hot Griese,Loser.
And let's not forget the biggie, Cleveland catching Pitt in a supposedly surefire letdown situation, Loser. (except for ACE_ACE aholics)
Are you starting to get my drift here.....the more people (yes, even us, here in the rx forum) that are zeroing in on a Big Game , or a Hot pick, the more likely it is to LOSE!!!!!!!! Why? (Tatoo this on your forehead if it doesn't sink in), because....MOST OF THE PEOPLE, LOSE, MOST OF THE TIME.

8) whether it wins or not, the "right side" to be on tonight is the Plowboys plus as many points as you can get your hand on. You cannot succeed as a handicapper, long term, without fading the public, MOST of the time.
Does that mean pound the Cowboys? Oh, hell no. It's a "regular" (whatever that is to you) play. Maybe a 1.5 at the most. Can it lose? Absolutely.
But year in and year out you'll be more successful in the NFL by zigging, when everybody else is zagging. Look for the ugly team, and MOST of the time, it will get there for you. See Cincy, St. Louis, N.O., Carolina, all from yesterday if you need a recent example or 2, or 3, or 4. And stay away from, or fade the glamour games.

9) that's my story , and I'm sticking to it. Dallas plus the points tonight.

I'm BOBTHEFIREMAN,and I approve this message!

 

[Kruser6]

First of all BOB - Dont try to be like ace

2nd of all like ace said, you always bet the better team

3rd of all - Its november and like many have said- this is the time of the year where the strong teams emerge, and the weak team fall. You might as well give your money to charity, atleast it can do some good there.

Have you watched the Cowboys play a single game yet this year????????????????????????????????


THEY ARE A PATHETIC TEAM - Auburn could beat them

 

[WMU33]

I Agree Bob

So far I've only posted two games this year and they were both college, so this is my first pro game.
YTD College 2-0
YTD NFL 0-0
TOTAL YTD 2-0

Hey bob, nice write up about the Dallas/Philly game. It takes guts on your part to go out on a limb and promote Dallas. Call me crazy and we'll see after the game, but I like the cowboys also. They have everything to prove tonight and really nothing to lose, while philly has everything to lose and nothing to gain. I see the cowboys playing inspired football tonight. Most teams after there first SU loss of the season fail to cover this many points. I see the eagles winning, but its going to be a close one. I even like the under here. Parcells will get his team prepared and I like the points.
MY PREDICTION
Cowboys +7

 

[bobthefireman]

whoops...

sorry if I offended your 1/2 point dude, I didnt mean it to be taken that way...

and if I was going to ALWAYS do something (which I'm not), it would be to fade the public in the NFL. That's more likely to win than "picking the best team" across the board. If I did that, I'd be on all favorites every week, a recipe for disaster if I ever heard one.

I believe what Ace meant was that picking the "right side" , more often than not, just means that if you could somehow divine who was going to win the game straight up, you would also be very likely to cover the spread also.
In other words, the spread in the NFL only comes into play in the minority of games on any given weekend.

GL with your pick tonight, seriously...Like I said earlier, I'm NOT pounding the Cowboys, it's just another regular play, based primarily on how I percieve the public to be going tonight. Which is USUALLY, the wrong way.

I may very well get my hat handed to me tonight, but so what.... in the long run my style of play (in the NFL) has proven to be very successful. year in and year out. Do the math.....if most people lose at sportsbetting (and they do) going the other way affords you the opportunity to win at a 55% or better rate. It's about math. (like all gambling). I will lose no sleep at all if the Eagles crush the Cowboys tonight. Why??because I'm already 9-5 in the NFL this week by simply fading the public. I can live with 9-6

BTF

to answer your question, yes I have watched ALL dallas games this year,...even though they make me sick to my stomach. All the more reason to bet on them tonight. Even "homers" here in Dallas think they have no chance tonight...

 

[bobthefireman]

thanks WMU33...

not really promoting Dallas,.....just giving my logic for picking them tonight. I'm happy to have you aboard my mostly empty ship! I'm a native detroiter myself, so I can appreciate your reasoning also....

GL....hope you cash it

BTF

 

[Mule]

public?

Bob,

How do you know who the public is on and what percentage?

I would love to fade the public on a daily basis.

Thanks, Mule

 

[bobthefireman]

mule, several ways.....

A) ask everybody at the office/factory or whatever,..."who do you like tonight?"
then go the other way......

B) count up service plays,...some dummies are actually paying money for these losers. if you get more dal than philly,...go philly,....and vice versa

C) look at internet contest threads.....count up how many times teams are selected,....fade the most popular ones.....

the list goes on and on......the moral of the story is...if you can figure out which way MOST people are going, and fade them, you'll be right MOST of the time. Not all, and not neccasarily tonight's game. Just MOST of the time.


BTF
by the way, I'm referring to NFL only here, because it's the sport bet hardest by amateurs

 

[bobthefireman]

oops, correction, I can't add....

9-4 so far this week, not 9-5, sorry. either way, it beats losing.

BTF:kicking:

 

[ESQAJM]

Based on your theory (which I feel has some merit) then you would fade the top 5 picks every week in the Hilton contest.

These top 5 plays every week hit abot 55% for the year. How would you explain that?

ESQAJM

 

[JUMBO227]

Hey bob, you better get the hose out because philly will light the house on fire tonite !!!!! I agree about the big line changes, but they don't cover all the time, Philly way way better than the all american (haha) team, especially after the thumping they took last week. mcnabb/owens, mcnabb/owens, mcnabb/owens. Think about it. Take philly bob, please bob or you will be trying to put the fire out all night.:blowup1:

 

[bobthefireman]

esqajm......jumbo....

esq.......close but not quite right. the guys in the nugget and hilton contests are not exactly joe public,....some are, but most are either semi-pro gamblers or service guys who think they cant beat it and are putting up the entry fees to back their claims. of those people even,...how many of them end up over 55% in total picks at the end of the contest. not just the top five picks. all their picks? I say MOST of them don't. And the REAL joe public does even worse.

Jumbo..... like I said in my initial post, it's one play and nothing more. it's not "hammer your guy time" ,it's not get back everything I lost yesterday time. it's one play. It's not a GOY or any crap like that. It's one play, period.
good luck to you on the eagle side.

BTF

 

[FatTony]

Bob,

How do you know who the public is on and what percentage?

I would love to fade the public on a daily basis.

Thanks, Mule

Look at www.wagerline.com


They have a consensus.

 

[Salsantorre]

I appreciate your write up Bob. I guess since Kruser is so sure he'll be wagering everything he has on Phily, right?

 

[bobthefireman]

thanks Sal, and ....

I hope he or anybody else here has better sense than to bet disproportionately on this one game. It's not the Super Bowl!!!

It really amazes me how much people involve passion in their picks. They should be about logic, instinct, past experiances, history maybe. But I'm not so sure passion does anything but lock you in to your own predetermined side....

Personally, I prefer to place a wager with the ugly side, wonder what the hell I must have been thinking (or :drink. If I feel overconfident or like I've got it nailed....I scare myself!
Last week, after getting down on Minny, I asked The Man, "what side is everyone on tonight?" He replied, "I'm taking all Indy, the only ones on Minny are me and you!" Now that's what I like to hear!!!
:toast: GL
BTF

 

[Kruser6]

Bob - YOu are very correct about everything that you have said tonight. I am sure two weeks ago when I got my a-s-s kicked on the Denver game -you were sitting on the couch with a big smile on your face. I appreciate your incite to the forum and your picks. No bashing here at all tonight, I am not even going to say I told you so because someday this whole thread will be the other way around!! Good Luck the rest of the week Bob . . . Sorry about the whole charity comment although I could have thought of a few nice charities your money could have gone towards. . . Just kidding with you and Good luck!!

 

[petre]

dude, you really have no clue let me help you get connected to the right sides,

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